Altcoin Market Cap in BTC - Long-Term ViewLet me just start by saying that I do realize that my methods are quite unorthodox, but I'm sure you'll find them convincing nonetheless. Thank you for reading, and please show your support by hitting the "Like" / "Follow" button now.
The chart you're seeing here is the market cap of all altcoins combined in BTC (not USD). The formula used is TOTAL2/BTCUSD. It is my opinion that looking at it in USD just taints one's view, and it's very difficult to draw conclusions from that data. As you can see here, the data is very clean, reliable, and tells a really good story.
In this weekly chart, you can see that the altcoin market established a support in Feb 2017 (lower yellow line), which it has not broken till date. It then established another support during the crypto Christmas of Dec '17 (upper yellow line), which was tested in May '19, and broken in June '19. So we're back to our original support, which has now been tested 3 times, and held.
There are also two resistance lines shown (in blue). Our solid support helped break the first resistance line in Jan '20, and we are at this moment getting squeezed between the solid support and the next resistance line. You'll also notice that the 50 Week EMA (orange line) is forming a confluence with the resistance line overhead, which has historically also acted as a support/resistance.
Another thing to look at is the Volume Flow Indicator (VFI) at the bottom of the screen, which I believe is indicating a bullish divergence in the weekly timeframe. If you want to know why I'm looking at this indicator, see my tutorial linked below.
When I think of all these factors combined: strong support underneath, 50 Week EMA overhead that has been pierced twice recently, and squeeze between support and resistance, combined with the fact that the support didn't break even during the COVID crash, and the general positive energy in the altcoin market right now, I can't help but feel bullish about the altcoin market. The squeeze seems to be terminating in the third week of July, so I think we will have a decision by then.
The wildcard is the impending potential stock market crash, but seeing as the last crash (Mar '20) actually gave the altcoin market a pump, I'm not worried about that at all. Keep in mind though that I'm talking about prices in BTC, not USD, so if you're trading altcoins in USD then you have to take the price of BTC in USD into account... forewarned is forearmed.
This is my idea on how the altcoin market might behave in the coming weeks. If you find it helpful, please Like the idea. Also would be great to Follow me so you can be notified of my future ideas.
Do you agree or disagree with me? Do you have any feedback? Let me know in the comments.
Disclaimer
No Investment Advice Provided
Any opinions, chats, messages, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this Post/Idea or in connection with it are provided as general market information for educational and entertainment purposes only, and do not constitute investment advice. This Post/Idea should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent market research before making your actual trading decisions. Opinions, market data, recommendations or any other content is subject to change at any time without notice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
I do not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of trading decisions. I do not recommend making hurried trading decisions. You should always understand that PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Exponentialmovingaverages
Trading The Bitcoin HalvingCryptohopper Newsletter
Market Analysis
After failing to break the resistance around $10,000, Bitcoin is closing in on the support level at $8,000. Bitcoin has had a correction after the last halving, so a short bear market scenario is not out of the question. The first and second halving overall provided some excellent opportunities for position traders. Today we will look at a strategy that would have increased your account by 3,500% if you had used it during the last halving!
If you had bought $1,000 Bitcoin in September 2016 at $600 and held it to the top in December 2017 at $19,600, you would have made about 3,150% , and your account value would be 31,150$ . Most people will call this utterly unrealistic , as it is almost impossible to buy something at the bottom and hold it all the way to the top. However, what if we told you that there is a strategy that would have increased your account even more during this period?
Position Trading
A position trader is an individual who holds an investment for weeks or even months at a time. They are not concerned with the short term fluctuation and aim to catch the more significant swings in the market. According to Investopedia, most position traders place less than ten trades a year . So how can someone who barely trades beat a very bullish market? That’s what we are going to find out int he next section.
Position Trading Strategy
Our goal with position trading is to catch the bigger trends. Therefore trend-following indicators are the most appropriate to use in this case. In our case, we will use the crossover of the 5 and 25 Exponential Moving Average (EMA). When the 5 EMA crosses over the 25 EMA upwards, we will take a long position, and when it crosses it downwards, we will close our position. This trading method will allow you to ride each swing almost to the top.
Then, if you have 1,000$ and you made the following 5 trades with these gains: 58%, 36%, 132%, 90%, 270% then your account will look like this:
1000$ * 1.58 * 1.36 * 2.32 * 1.9 * 3.7 = 35,046$.
This strategy provides an even greater reward than if you would have bought at the bottom and held all the way to the top. Simultaneously, it is a lot more realistic as it is a simple trading strategy based on the EMA crossovers.
Other trend-following indicators that you can use are the SMA, DEMA, TEMA, KAMA, MESA, Parabolic SAR, Ichimoku Cloud, T3, WMA, etc. All of these indicators are available at Cryptohoper, along with many more.
INSG Bouncing off of previous resistance and 50 EMAINST is bouncing off of a major line of resistance and the 50-ema. I entered at $9.59. My stop loss is at $9.20 (4.17%) and my first profit target is 11.15 (16.15%) which is pretty decent.
The price also moved below both support lines yesterday and two days ago but was rejected both times.
I'm hoping that it'll reach this target and continue to move upward 20%.
SNE bouncing off 50 EMAI was watching this yesterday hoping it would bounce off of 50 EMA. Today, it looks like it confirmed the bounce and so I took a small position at $63.33.
I set the stop-loss to $62.20 (1.78%) and the first profit level at $64.75 (2.24%). This is a relatively small gain from what I usually aim for, but that's ok.
A lot of analysts are also saying that this is a buy at this time.
YEXT bouncing off of 50 EMA and support linesYEXT is bouncing off of the 50 EMA, a trend line, and a previous line of resistance. This was actually pointed out to me by a friend who took a long-term position on it. I am going to swing this because that's my style 😎
Also, the candle that formed today is technically a bullish candlestick.
I set my stop-loss to $12.48, or 4%, and my first target at $14.50, or about 11.54%.
There aren't any recent analyst reports on this stock.
Scalping BITCOIN with Williams%+EMACryptohopper Newsletter
Market Analysis
After a very large bullish move around a week ago, Bitcoin has been ranging between $9,500 and $8,500. The price now appears to be testing the resistance at $9,500 again, and whether the price will achieve a breakthrough or not is still an open question.
Usually, we are told that we should not trade during ranges and that we should only trade when there is an established trend. Although there is a lot of truth to these statements, one can still make a profit by scalping the ranges . Today, we will therefore take a look at how you can use a scalping strategy and profit during a range!
Indicators
Choosing the right indicators is an essential part of an automated strategy, and a scalping strategy is no exception! This week we are looking at how to combine William’s % and the Exponential Moving Average crossover in order to get a solid entry point.
William’s % serves as a great indicator in identifying pullbacks in the market. However, as we know very well, this indicator can be oversold for a very long time, and it can take a long time before the market recovers again. Thus, we need a trend-following indicator to identify when the trend has reversed and is moving higher again; the Exponential Moving Average is an adequate indicator to use in this case.
In our strategy, we will use William’s % as the first requirement for entry. Then, we will use the crossover between the 1 EMA and the 15 EMA as our second requirement. As you may have noticed, the probability that these two indicators provide a buy signal at the same time is very low. As such, we can use a feature in our strategy section in Cryptohopper which lets us keep a certain signal for up to 10 candles. Therefore, if Williams % showed an oversold signal, and a few candlesticks later we would see the crossover of the 1 and 15 EMA, our hopper would still make the trade.
If you want to be conservative and make sure you are only trading when the broader trend is in your favor, you may want to add the MESA indicator on the 4h time frame while keeping the EMA and William’s % on the 15 minutes timeframe.
Bitcoin 2D Golden/Death CrossesBitcoin 2D (Golden/Death) Crosses case study shows that after these crosses, price action will test one or more EMAs to confirm the cross and Bots & Algos.
Will it happen again this time?
With every 2D Candle close, the momentum between EMA200 and EMA55 becomes stronger to the downside.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin could test the 2 EMAs but the change of behavior is when a candle closes above EMA200.
So as long as BTC is below EMA21, I am Bearish. but if a candle closes above EMA200 ( fake the death cross ) - based on PriceAction - I become Neutral or Bullish.
NTNX breaking out of traingleNTNX has formed a triangle for about a month or so and it has just recently begun breaking out of it. MACD and RSI look promising even though they aren't giving any signals. Volume looks pretty good. Other analysts (according to MarketWatch) are also agreeing that this stock is a buy.
My prediction is that it will rise to hit 50 EMA, retrace a little, and continue on upward. The retracement might be a place to add to the position.
Risk, however, is somewhat high. If we set the stop-loss to where the top line of the triangle is ($16.30), the risk is ~9%. The reward is pretty high though, so I will take a medium-size position on it.
Price Breaking resistance after days of consolidation,***** ^-^Stock price still in consolidation, Price crossed over the 50emv and should be consolidation in the current support and resistance. For confirm position the price should rally the current resistance, 50emv crossover 200emm all together with the price for a confirmation for the execution. mentioned false breakout due to the consolidation period but it may not end up a false break out, if the stock consolidated for a two weeks periods or so on and the price rallied up or down it will be a strong confirmation Further study to be done.
Thank you
Localogist
S&P500 Possible Reversal ZoneHey guys,
Kind of new here but I thought I'd throw this up as my first post to see what people thought about situation we're in right now.
From a technical standpoint, the 2600-2700 range looks pretty tough to me for the following reasons:
- Elliot Wave Theory . Four of the five waves that make up an Elliot wave have been completed, it is not unexpected that another should follow soon to continue into the downtrend.
- 20 EMA Touch . The S&P500 is yet to touch the daily 20 EMA since the downtrend began, but I'm sure it will provide some kind of resistance.
- Daily Trend line . This trend line is still fresh and yet to be tested. Although, it should be noted that the trend line is very steep and even if the S&P500 does continue to respect that trend line, it would be surprising for it to keep falling at that rate (~800 points/month) in the future.
- 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement Level . The Fibonacci retracement level 0.382 lines up perfectly with the 2650 zone mentioned before. The 0.382 fib level has provided some level of resistance (not drawn on my chart) in the past, during the second wave of the cycle. Also, wave 2 peaked at a Fib retracement level of 0.5 when drawing the Fib line from the peak of the S&P500 in the middle of February to the low of wave 1. Additionally, when a Fib retracement is then drawn from the peak of Wave 2 to the lowest point on wave 3 (not drawn on my chart at the time), the 0.5 fib level aligns very well with the same 2650 zone.
- Support/Resistance Level . The 2650-2750 level has also shown signs of being a point of support and resistance in the past. This is more evident on smaller time frames (4hr/1hr).
I'm not certain on this level being a reversal zone, but the technicals seem to indicate that this point is very strong, so it should at least provide a fair bit of resistance. I will be looking for chart patterns on lower time frames like double tops or H&S for a safer entry.
It seems like this whole crash is happening in fast forward because of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also doesn't look like the virus is slowing down too much, even with many countries around the world attempting to lockdown.
That's just my thoughts on the market right now. I'm by no means an expert so please don't blindly follow my analysis.
Please let me know what you guys think in the comments as I am always interested in receiving constructive criticism and understanding other people's perspectives.
Cheers
CADJPY Target Price 77.471CADJPY Retest Diagonal Trend At Price Level 79.421.
Two-Step Process To Achieve Consistent Profits In The Currency Market.
SELL
1) Wait For Price To Close Below A Level
2) Wait For Price To Retest The Level
BUY
1) Wait For Price To Close Above A Level
2) Wait For Price To Retest The Level
Monthly Chart, Weekly Chart, and Daily Chart are utilized consistently in marking horizontal support resistance levels, diagonal level, and Fibonacci horizontal levels. Parallel channel, rising/falling wedge, and pennant are used for diagonal level. Exponential Moving Average 10-Day Period and Exponential Moving Average 20-Day Period are used for mean reversion and overextended markets and market timing.
ETH/USD Scenario for Next WeekThe bulls successfully push the ETH/USD pair above the EMA (30) level 2 days ago, which is supposed to be a positive sign.
The pair is also still above its SMA (200) level, the long downtrend line and mid-term uptrend line indicating a bullish condition.
However, the bears aggressively resist the uptrend momentum at Fibonacci 78.6% level and try to push back below the EMA (30) level.
The consolidation period seems to be extended until the next few days to see who will define the next direction.
If the next daily candle is closed below the EMA (30) level, it is most likely the bears will take action.
From the daily candlestick view, the descending parallel channel is seen that must be broken out to continue the uptrend momentum.
The pair is likely to move in a tight range of the Fibonacci 61.8% to 78.6% level ($ 223 - $253).
The first support is the mid-term uptrend line. If it is broken down, it is highly likely the Fibonacci 61.8% will crack.
If so, the pair will follow the channel and the bears will take control.
Trading setup:
A long position can be opened if the pair is secured above the descending channel for 1-2 daily candles.
If the price fall below mid-term uptrend line and the 61.8% Fibo level, the bearish reversal condition most likely will start to test the latest higher low at $209.
If $209 is broken, a short position should be taken and wait to see how the pair will treat the 50% Fibo, 38.2% Fibo and SMA(200) level.
MA AnalysisAs you can see on the chart, Moving Averages and Exponential Moving Averages can play a significant role in determining support and resistance areas. This is multiplied further when there are two or more MA/EMAs at the same price level, and these can make for great validation levels; "If price closes above these 3 MAs, look for long entries on lower timeframes" etc.
You can also see that price traded in a fairly well defined range from June to October in 2018, hemmed in by both the 10 and 20 EMAs, and providing some great opportunities. Additionally, you may notice that the Monthly candle of December 2019 had little chance of significant price action, with 2 MAs directly above, and 2 MAs directly below (yikes).
Currently, we are pressing up against MA resistance, which previously participated in the resistance of closing price in the April 2019 candle, and the December 2019 candle. Though I expect this month to close quite red, I would be surprised if we don't wick to the mid 9k range, where I will look for weakness.
Use stops, and confluence.
Moving AveragesThe best (most interactive) MA/EMA's can be great confluence factors for picking high R areas of interest for taking or exiting positions. When more than one MA occupies a specific price point/zone (particularly higher MA's), there is a lot more liquidity due to the congruence of different strategy traders and bots taking positions around both (or more) of the MA's.
If you can read em, you can trade em.
*Also wtf is with this shitty triangle haha thing is taking so fucken long to resolve
NZDCAD SHORTPrice has been creating lower highs in addition to trading below the 200EMA making me inclined to short. On the daily, you’ll note Price has created a Head and shoulders patten, successfully breaking the neckline. In order to enter this, I’d like to see price retrace the neckline at which point price will likely be overbought and we can look for rejections to short.