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Exponentialmovingaverages

Weekly bearish crossover of EMA15 and EMA200 Good day Traders Bitcoin is retracing after a few days of battling that DMA50, whilst watching a new episode of paint drying, and no volume follow-through. We're now on the verge of a temporary bearish crossover between EMA15 and EMA200. See the 2 screenshots below of the S&P and DJI which shows the last time we had a downward cross of EMA15 and EMA200 in those markets on the weekly. This actually preceded the 2008 financial crises and doesn't happen very often, so not something to take lightly on the weekly. In fact bitcoin has never had this crossover before, since there's simply not enough history for EMA200 on the weekly chart for us to compare this bearish crossover to. Price is still well below the Ichimoku cloud, its base line, conversion line, and our EMA200 which we unsuccesfully retested in December and again in January, so we're still very much in a down trend. Span A (orange) is still moving down and away from Span B (pink) on the daily chart, signalling a potential temporary acceleration of the the down trend once we have a bearish crossover of EMA15 and EMA200 on the weekly. I say temporary crossover because when it happens, I suspect bitcoin will drop through our WMA200 support to new lows just below our $3k support, and back to the trend line support connecting our 5 Feb 2018 swing low to our December 2018 lows, but we should then have a dead cat bounce with EMA15 crossing back above EMA200, for a rally towards the cloud baseline to around $4900 - $5100, before crossing over to the downside again when we can't get above the base line resistance, resuming the downtrend from there with a move back below WMA200, EMA200 and our EMA15 support. We had a 38.2 fib retracement with this recent long squeeze, so i'm expecting a 161.8 fib extension target of $2757 sometime at the start of March 2019, where there should be an abundance of liquidity from all the stops just below $3k. The herd will believe that the bottom is in and we'll have a bull trap rally to the cloud base line and DMA200 resistance, before resuming the downtrend past our $3k support finding support somewhere around $2k, and bouncing back to our $3k resistance. We should then drop from $3k for the capitulation leg of this market cycle, sometime in December 2019, with a crash down below our downtrend support line, finally bottoming and finding support at the initial uptrend support of the 2015 bull cycle, somewhere between $1000 - $1350. Bitcoin should then move back above the downtrend support, slowly moving back to our $3k resistance around July 2020 shortly after the halving (halving is expected around May 2020 so expecting a gradual rise once we've bottomed, and as we approach that date). We should have range-bound consolidation after capitulation, between April 2020 and March 2021, where I suspect we'll consolidate between $2k and $3k before starting a new bull cycle and a break to the upside above our $3k resistance sometime around March 2021 and onwards to a new ATH for bitcoin around August 2022. Good luck and happy trading! Dow Jones: Bearish crossover of EMA15 and EMA200 S&P500: Bearish crossover of EMA15 and EMA200 Previous chart:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Corn_Reaper
10
BTCUSD 1D Heikin, RSI and MACD - 1 Month trend review.This chart uses Heikin Ashi Candlesticks with CM TrendBars (21D), EMAs (9,15,21,55), RSI (13D, 80/20 ranges) and a MACD indicator. Most trend traders are familiar with Heikin Ashi candlesticks. HA means ‘average’ in Japanese because these candlesticks ‘average out’ prices vs traditional candlesticks that are based on OHLC. This has two benefits: it reduces noise and produces a smoother looking candlestick pattern. Which helps trend traders identify key trends and ignore smaller time frame and/or less significant price action. Obviously day traders would not find HA very useful. Over the last month we have seen price action trade within a 1k USD range and the first ‘bullish’ month after several months. For the 1st half of December it was all bearish as we hit ALTs for 2018, except for a weak bullish spinning top on the 9th (that correlated with a significant bullish MACD crossover). A price reversal started on the 16th and ran through to the 24th, a Christmas present of sorts, before the market inevitably dipped during Xmas and New Years. The new year has shown bullish price action on the 2nd and 3rd of January (with my CM TrendBars colour code indicating all green) but they are still posting lower highs than the previous two price oscillations. Volume over the month has been 'green' on only 10 days but that has the most bullish we have seen for month's in the downtrend. We saw significant bullish price action even though a majority of the days were bearish. This could indicate that few want to sell at this price and a small bump in ‘new’ volume had a amplified impact on price. It is also worth noting that there is a massive amount of wash trading occurring which is distorting data and we could be looking at a fake pump (lots of theories including a BCH/Bitmain pump). It also worth noting that after only a 4 day bump in volume, it has tapered off for 8 days now and is at the lowest levels since the 13th of November (the day before we had the last massive price dump). Remember that weak volume goes hand in hand with weak trending (price consolidation and sideways action). For how long before another breakout is the question? IMHO Volume this low tends to indicate that it can’t be long and it the breakout could be bearish. The RSI depicts the historical and current strength of price action of a security. After identifying a trend, we can then apply the RSI to help identify what stage in the oscillation cycle and therefore possible future velocity/magnitude moves. Note that the longer the time frame, the more reliable the RSI signal is. An alternative to the RSI, is the Stochastic RSI, which is kind of like the RSI on steroids and it is much more sensitive and therefore more likely to deliver false signals. For a trend trader, this is not ideal. The RSI axis is from 0 - 100, with the below 20 (oversold) and above 80 (overbought) been the real action points IMHO. When the RSI is hovering around 50, this is a neutral zone. The RSI over the last month has provided some valuable hints of future price action. We saw a bullish failure swing play out as it crossed the 30 RSI, then bounced three times above 30, before rising to 55. The 3rd test of the 30 RSI on the 16th of December was really a clear sign that we were going to see some bullish price action. From the 20th the RSI has hovered +/- 5 around the 50 point RSI indicating no clear direction in the market momentum or velocity. The small bull run has effectively lost momentum already (it is worth noting during the Xmas and NY period, many stop trading). I think that the next few days will be critical, if we see the RSI down trending to say 30-40 while price remains sideways (divergence), this could indicate future bearish price action. The MACD (Moving Averages Convergence Divergence) indicator is a popular trend momentum indicator that can show us a security's overall trend. The core assumption of this indicator is that a security’s price oscillates around an equilibrium. Therefore by looking at the relationship between different MA calculations, we can identify what specific stage a security maybe of it oscillation cycle. This is why we have two lines, the first is called the MACD (26 - 12 day MA) and the second is called a Signal line (9 day MA). We also have a Histogram (MACD-Signal Line), which is the 1st thing I look at. Finally there is the Zero line, which is basically when the 26 and the 12 day are equal. The MACD, that combines several indicators, is worth watching when one or more of the following happens: crossovers (MACD/Signal/Histogram and Zero line), convergences/divergences between price and rapid changes. Learn more about this at Investopedia. The first thing I look at is the Histogram as it is visually clear and it most often precedes MACD/Signal crossovers. The histogram flipped from a clearly bearish position on the 26th of November, crossing the Zero line on the 2nd of December. It remained around the Zero line until the 16th of December, interestingly enough while BTC price declined a further 20%. The reason why the Histogram did not turn more bearish during that 20% drop is because it combines averages from the 26 up to now, and the bearish price action had been high during the early part of that period, therefore it averaged out. Then it became clearly bullish on the 16th of December until the 24th, before reversing its trend now to just above the Zero Line. The MACD bullish crossed the Signal line on the 2nd and then again the 9th of December, when we saw a significant bullish spinning top, and has continued it’s bullish trend towards the Zero line ever since. This could just reflect a bullish short term bounce, or price retracement, or it could signal a longer term gradual price reversal. The longer the MACD remains around the Zero line, along with the Singal line, the more bearish I become. Overall I am neutral to bearish. The charts indicate a weak bullish reversal, but it is not backed up by volume. The RSI has pulled out of oversold territory but has firmly remained within the neutral zone, the MACD is approaching the zero line but it sat on that for weeks before the price collapsed on the 14th of November. The longer it takes for me to see significant volume and then price action, with corresponding RSI and MACD, the more bearish I will become.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CarbiArbittrage
EUR/USD - Bullish Divergence - Chance for EuroAfter a lot of weeks of decline and sideways, there is a potential for Euro to grow up! When we look on the chart we can see a really strong bullish divergence on MACD and RSI also. The market is doing every time a new LOW but indicators are doing a higher lows. There is a possibility for Euro to rise again (mid-term). We can see 3 strong divergences and it doesn't mean that the market will surely grow! There is a big chance but the market can do one more low and then it would be much more stronger signal. We could spot also a Falling Wedge pattern. It is a bullish pattern, but we need confirmation. Without confirmation we can do a one more bottom and the signal will be stronger. There are more set-up to do when we want to trade this. If we go to the market without confirmation (f.e. now), we need to have a really tight Stop Loss. This way is very risky but with tight SL it won't be a big deal if we hit that. Personally, i would trade the second set-up after confirmation. 1. SET-UP - WITHOUT CONFIRMATION (AGRESSIVE) BUY: 1.133 - 1.141 Target: 1.144 1.15-1.16 1.154 SL : 1.126 For me, there is better set-up the second one and I will describe why. I will join the market after the confirmation. It means after break and close above the red trendline (Falling Wedge break). When this won't happen now and when the market breaks the white short-term trendline, there is a big chance of retest the orange trendline. At this point divergence would be much stronger and there I would do agressive open. 2. SET - UP BUY: Daily close above the falling wedge Targets will be similar (could be the same). I will post later (it depends on how market will develop, SL also).
Long
by SlovakTrading
Exponential Moving Averages to Predict the Stock MarketI will like you to read the post to the end because the previous trading sessions of trading reflects unstable times and I will like to give you confidence as you trade in these times. Let me jump into moving averages (MA) in this time of uncertainty. Markets are up 500 points, down 500 points, up 1000 points and down 1000 points. This is for those who trade with technical analysis which is a time tested trend principle method of trading the market. In times of turbulence, the technical analysis tools tell us what to do, we are ahead of the volatility by using the tools especially in these times. Moving Averages is the trend’s best friend forever as they are used to smooth out the trend and make it easier to see the big picture by making bare the predominant and current trend. The moving average can be used as a short cut in identifying the trend. 10 period moving average, 20-period moving average and 50-period moving average. You can set up your moving averages from the indicator settings in the same way as I have listed above. As the trend is moving up and down the line smoothens the trend by moving behind to smooth out the process. Few traders use solely the moving averages to trade. The above are called Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) which I usually use in trading and set at the 10, 20, and 50 period EMA to identify short or intermediate term trends. Some traders use the Simple Moving Averages (SMA) but they can be useful in long term trends and do not react as quick as the Exponential Moving Averages. All three EMAs can be used at the same time on the chart and used together. The signs predicted by the EMAs are different hence why it is used together. How to Use EMAs Let me illustrate here that EMAs can be used for trend direction, as a Buy or Sell signal and as a support and Resistance which we discussed in a previous post and can be found here. It is as simple as mentioned. For the trend direction, simply ask yourself if you are above or below the moving averages. When the candlesticks are above the moving averages it means the trade is in a bullish trend, when the candlesticks are below the moving averages it means the trade is in a bearish trend and when the candlesticks are stuck in the middle or on the moving averages it is a neutral trade or called a sideways market. Learn to notice the crosses of the moving averages in your trade chart. When the moving averages crosses it depicts an opportunity, ideally all 3 moving averages crossing tells the trend is reversing and this is either a buy or sell signal. A moving average crossing upwards signals a bullish trend and when moving averages cross downwards signals a bearish trend. It is useful for a support and resistance when the candlestick trades up the moving averages is a resistance and down to moving averages is a support. The EMAs can be used to trade fully without any other tool. Examples of Moving Averages APPLE – AAPL See the Apple stock for example. KITS KITS is my acronym for Keep it Trade Simple. I have seen many Traders paste too many confusing indicators on the chart, loads of lines and it all becomes confusing. When you Keep it Trade Simple you cannot get it massively wrong. How do you KITS? Play all your trade using a trade journal with a simple process I have used, simply analyse your trade, then choose a strategy, write down the plan such as your entry point, stop loss and a target; then measure against your plan – did you follow the plan or did your emotions get in the way and do I make any adjustment. Next steps I know the trading sessions have not been looking good and you may have lost some money but remember, they are all opportunities to enter into the market awaiting the next bullish or bearish run. Trade the trend because the best days are still ahead Let us stay calm and be prepared. Don’t forget to journal your trades See you soon.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by padedayo
Moving Average, MA Ribbon (Cloud)Rundown of the options for the moving average indicator. Plot MAs of your choosing Plot ribbon/cloud of MAs MA options Simple Moving Averages Exponential Moving Averages Double Exponential Moving Averages Symmetrically Weighted Moving Average Weighted Moving Averages Volume-weighted Moving Averages Moving average used in RSI Arnaud Legoux Moving Averages You can also plot an envelope around the MA cloud at a custom percentage. MA lines can be colored by the slop of the line or its position relative to price. 10 MA Shaded ribbon colored by slope 10 MA Shaded "cloud" colored by its relative position to price with 4 MAs Link to the indicators Moving Averages MA Ribbon Referral Links Bitmex 10% fee discount for 6 months www.bitmex.com TradingView (50% off after trial period ends) tradingview.go2cloud.org Tip Jar BTC: 1FgEeDDMF7QKydQPJVCDjp7ypjREp8XG6c LTC: LM9KsXz7GUxCN9g9EjTC8ayviDEmBK14rw
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by SemiQuant
EMA strategy - June to dateThis EMA test produced 9% over 5 trades Rules: Create four closing price Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) indicators on a 4hr chart 20 EMA , 50 EMA , 160 EMA and 400 EMA SETUP: 1. Look for alignment on the two bigger EMAs (160 and 400) - when 160 is below 400 for a short and 160 is above 400 for along 2. Wait for the same setup on the two lower EMAs (20 cross below 50) 3. Enter at the point of the cross - ENTRY Create 2 trades:- 30 pips and 60pips and stop loss at -30pips Happy Trading Follow @Bizlus
by bizlus
Hey what is Stellar Lumens doing? The strength of the Lumen has been touted to Stellar's recent partnerships, which continues to grow and grow, most recently with IBM . XRP and XLM are still at each other's necks. Meanwhile, the 240 shows a good trend, can we ride it with the Fibonacci extension? Find entries / exit at retracements to significant levels - 0.886, 1.0, 1.272, 1.618 if it makes it that far this time round. The curve up is quite steep and using EMA's for support this looks like quite a strong ride up. t @bizlus
Long
by bizlus
1