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75: China Export Analysis - Fundamental and Technical OverviewThe European Union (EU) and the United States have increased scrutiny and imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports, particularly electric vehicles and strategic materials like gallium and germanium. These measures are designed to protect domestic industries from what are perceived as unfair trade practices and subsidies by the Chinese government. Additionally, the EU's new Critical Raw Material Act and battery regulations aim to reduce dependency on Chinese imports and secure supply chains for critical technologies. These regulatory changes have led to a noticeable decline in Chinese exports to the EU. In response, China has imposed export restrictions on key materials, further straining trade relations. These geopolitical tensions and trade barriers have significantly impacted China's export figures. Currently, China's export trend is showing a downward trajectory. The export figures have struggled to reach the $350 billion mark and are at risk of dropping significantly lower, potentially towards the $140 billion level. Chart Overview: Trend Line: A clear downtrend is visible on the chart, with lower highs and lower lows indicating sustained pressure. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: The $350 billion level is the upcoming resistance. That has not yet been reached. Support: Immediate support is observed around $250 billion. A break below this level could accelerate the downward move towards $140 billion. Will We Reach $350 Billion or Go Lower? Given the current economic and geopolitical landscape, it seems still likely that China will reach the $350 billion export mark in the near term because there has not been a really corrective wave in the chart. But the downward pressure from increased tariffs, export restrictions, and the EU's push for supply chain independence are significant hurdles. If these conditions persist, a further decline is a plausible scenario.
ECONOMICS:CNEXP
by SeventyFive-Invest
Dry Bulk Shipping ETF to Rise as Export/Import Prices IncreaseBDRY the Dry Bulk Shipping ETF, which is tied to the Freight Rate Futures Contracts of the Various Ship Sizes, is now looking to rise again as both the Import and Export prices continue to rise, especially within the Natural Gas and Fuel category. We have Confirmed Bullish Divergence on the RSI, MACD, and PPO; all while the PPO has begun to give us a Bullish Confirmation at the HOP level of this Bullish Deep Gartley on the Weekly Timeframe. As a result, I will now be expecting to see the market price of this ETF go up at an extreme rate as the Shipping, Freights, and Carrying Costs begin to rise. I will be looking at individual Dry Bulk Shipping and other International Goods Transportation stocks such as ADM, GASS, and DLNG
AMEX:BDRYLong
by RizeSenpai
Heavy Exports Weighing Down SoybeansSoybean is among the world’s most traded crop. It is used in various industries. Soybean drives global food prices. It can tilt trade balances of an entire nation. This paper describes the importance of Soybean. It lists key producers, consumer and maps the harvesting cycle across the calendar by top producing countries. Given rising Brazilian exports, higher US planting, and asset manager’s positioning, this paper articulates a case study for a short position in CME Soybeans Futures delivering a 1.3x reward to risk with entry at USc 1,452.5/bushel and target of USc 1,350/bushel hedged by a stop at USc 1,530/bushel. SOYBEAN IS THE WORLD’S MOST TRADED GRAIN Soybean is high in protein. Hence, it is a key component of livestock feed for meat & dairy production. Rising consumption of the latter two continues to push Soybeans demand. Two-thirds of Soybean is used for crushing into oil and meal. Soybean oil is among the most widely used vegetable oils. It is also used as biodiesel. The two American continents form 80% of global production. Brazil (42%) and the US (31%) are the two largest producers of Soybeans. Argentina is a distant third (7%). China drives demand. It is the largest importer of Soybeans. It comprises 60% of global imports. Soybeans is used to feed China’s massive livestock. Soybean prices are cyclical and prone to price shocks. HARVESTING CYCLE, WEATHER & TRADE POLICY HUGELY INFLUENCES PRICES Prices vary through the year. It is lowest at harvest. Increases during the year with rising inventory holding costs. Harvest seasons are spread differently across North & South America. US harvest is from September to November. While the Brazil & Argentina harvest from March until June. Not surprisingly, Brazilian and US harvest has an enormous impact on Soybean prices. Actual production deviating from expectations in these two majors can send prices surging or tumbling. Soybean prices since 2015 is visualised below. Prices have structurally moved up. Prices have surged driven by robust demand since 2020. Soybean prices on average have ranged 14% from its lowest to the highest over the last eight years with large price gyrations in 2016 and 2020. Price behaviour during and post-harvest since 2015 is visually described in the heatmap below. All things being equal, Soybean prices trend lower during harvesting followed by price recovery post-harvest. However, each year presents idiosyncratic conditions related to weather, trade policy, yield and output, causing price fluctuation. Beyond the harvest cycle, climate has a significant impact. North and South America is heavily affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation which is a natural climate pattern causing hotter/dryer climate every three to seven years. El- Niño also elevates the chances of droughts and floods. Demand for Soybean Oil is also impacted by supply and demand of other vegetable oils like Palm Oil due to substitution effect. Global trade policy has a considerable influence too. Trade restrictions can disrupt global supply-demand balance, resulting in increased volatility. HIGHER PLANTING IN US, RISING BRAZILIAN EXPORTS, AND FALLING YIELDS IN ARGENTINA USA : In its recent Market Outlook, the USDA reported that US farmers were planning to plant marginally higher than last year but below market expectations. As per National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), soybean crushing spiked to a 15-month high and the second highest level for any month on record in March. The crushing pace jumped as processors bounce back from maintenance related downtime. Brazil : Soybean exports from Brazil surged 42.5% YoY during the first half of April. Bean prices have trended lower on larger than expected supply. Argentina : USDA reduced its forecast of Argentina’s soybean crop to twenty-seven million metric tons down from thirty-three million metric tons last month. Argentina’s soybean yields sunk to historical lows last week as per Buenos Aires Grains Exchange’s (BAGE) weekly report. BAGE warned that its projection, currently at twenty-five million metric tons, could be reduced if yield remains suppressed. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT Two-thirds of soybean crop is crushed into oil and meal. The crush spread, also sometimes referred to as simply the crush, refers to the difference between the value of soybean meal and oil and the price of soybeans. The “crush” is gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. As such, these three products are deeply intertwined. Asset managers have reduced net longs in all three contracts since the start of 2023. Intriguingly, asset managers have reduced net longs much more sharply for Oil and Meal relative to Soybeans. TRADE SET UP Four key drivers at play. First, rising supply from Brazil. Second, higher planting by US farmers. Third, bearish asset manager positioning. Finally, first three offset by marginal impact of lower yields in Argentina. In forming a holistic view, this paper posits a short position in CME Soybeans July contract. Each lot provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 tons). Prices are quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Minimum price fluctuation (tick) is one-fourth of one-cent. Therefore, every tick represents a change of USD 12.50 per lot. ● Entry: USc 1,452.5 ● Target: USc 1,350 ● Stop: USc 1,530 ● Profit at target: USD 5,125 ● Loss at stop: USD 3,875 ● Reward-to-risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZSN2023Short
by mintdotfinance
AUDCAD: Bearish Divergence at Last Week's HighThis is a pair I'v been looking to short again for awhile now due to the trend and now i'v got some Bearish Divergence to justify entering and the nice extra bonus from the news of the US Trade Deficit Increasing. I think this will stir up more demand for the CAD against alot of other Currencies but more particularly against the AUD. This may also put downwards pressure on the price of US Oil but thats for an entirely different trade.
Short
by RizeSenpai
1
Canada the big winner of energy?Energy markets are currently trying to find their footing. The loss of Russian crude to sanctions and the war in Ukraine has caused an impulse wave in the market. My last energy post was about the long term more generally being short on oil. Short-term the disruption will cause elevated prices for a while followed by a turndown. Due to growth in energy use worldwide even if the hydrocarbons share of the market shrinks due to green energy demands for decarbonization LNG still overall gets bigger. Waves of price action will depend on supply changes in both quantity and source through that transition. Waves of consumption and thus demand changes affect Europe negatively due to the current Ukrainian war along with emerging markets' needs for energy increasing for the next few decades till 2040. There is an exception if the G7 decides sanctions should stay on Russia long term. If Europe hits its storage targets for LNG and crude for winter they will have a moment to breathe and look around for a long-term solution to their problem. Canada offers a lot of solutions using LNG and could be one of if not the big beneficiary of the long-term needs of an expanding energy market through 2040. Exports on the coasts for LNG from North America generally could fill the gap left by Russia and meet demand from the emerging economies. From the government of Canada's website. "Eighteen LNG export facilities have been proposed in Canada – 13 in British Columbia, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Nova Scotia – with a total proposed export capacity of 216 Million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG (approximately 29 Billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas). Since 2011, 24 LNG projects have been issued long-term export licenses. Canada’s only operational LNG terminal (an import terminal) is Canaport LNG’s regasification import terminal located in Saint John, New Brunswick." Fliping this infrastructure to export will be a big job but if done quickly enough it can be used to avoid the use of coal worldwide in emerging economies and fix Europe's problems during the green transition. To be fair building out base load in the form of Nuclear energy is far more preferable with hydro storage and then variable load in the form of solar and wind. In the opinion of this author however better is better for emissions and short-term use of LNG to limit coal consumption is a good idea. Just don't let the Koch think tanks trumpet their own horn too much. The unfortunate use cases of nuclear fuel for reactors to make bombs as North Korea has demonstrated presents a geopolitical tool that would be far too easy to use and thus is limiting the expansion of the technology. Canada seems positioned to take advantage of exporting its resources to the rest of the world filling a gap left by Russia. It's a good opportunity for Canada. Time will tell if they take advantage of it. All the best, see you on the moon.
NYSE:CNQ
by GreatScottTheMoon
short-term pullback in Oil expected. $OIH $WTI This thing has gotten way overcooked and gone parabolic. If it continues to go parabolic, it will destroy the consumer. Which is 70% of what drives the US economy. So I doubt that will be allowed to happen by the market gods lol. I expected TVC:USOIL to return to its well-defined travel that it bonered out of like a rocket. Unless we see 3 consecutive closes above $115 a barrel for WTI crude, then I expect a return to earth (the channel) and then continuing its slug upwards until renewables and EV's have completely replaced fossil fuels and ICE's. Please see the tagged post for more info. And to understand this is not my first time doing due diligence on the subject. And not to say I told you so, but I told you so, I was spot on with oil last time. I gotta take my W's. The easy way to potentially play this while limiting risk exposure is puts on $USO, and use any profits to add to $OIH. #TRUSTinTheTiger
TVC:USOILShort
by EBITDAtiger
Are Wheat & Biofuels Supply Plays?Took positions in BG last year, & ended up trading out too soon. Here is a good dip & options are cheap, not trading advice just a MACRO play. As long as food prices are going up & Russian Export Taxes are increasing then Wheat Grain & Biofuels might still be valid fundamentally. Bunge is a global player so please check out their Fundamentals, SEC Filings & Prospectus before investing real money, also it costs nothing to check price action for a few weeks or months before making a decision. That's how lots of analysts make their very best decisions. In fact the way I came across BG was from bad information about an alleged Silver Squeeze. Don't follow hype, do your own research & make the best decisions for you & your investment goals.
NYSE:BGLong
by CryptoQue
21 Largest countries by total tradeA few things I notice: Brazil has all the tools in its hands to, but it does not trade (it's rank 25 to 30). AUD NZD are overrated (overtraded). China way underrated but they are new, they were a tiny economy until recently following their cultural revolution. Canada a bit overtraded but not a big deal. CHF and USD seem overtraded but that's normal, Switzerland has all the banking and all the big trading firms, the US have the world intl currency (for now) and all investors in the world buy US stocks (for now). Hehe Turkey is not even there, I think it trades around 400 billions just like Brazil & Australia. Mexico has a weaker army than Singapore. They're 500,000 btw. ==> No wonder they have drug gangs patrolling the country in trucks with mounted guns and "make examples. Not impossible drug cartel exports > The country exports. Russia is a significant world player because of its army. Russia has some major obstacles to growth. It is rekt by its no access to the world oceans. ==> "Fourteen percent of U.S. counties that are adjacent to the coast produce 45 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), with over three million jobs (one in 45) directly dependent on the resources of the oceans and Great Lakes.". "One of every 6 jobs in the U.S. is marine-related". "U.S. maritime transport carries 95% of the nation’s foreign trade". "More than 80% of the nation’s economy is supported in coastal states". It's that important. Not a Russia expert (I don't even trade the Rubble) but I think this explains why Russia top 2 exports: 1- Mineral fuels including oil: US$141.3 billion (42.1% of total exports) - sent by pipelines. 2- Gems, precious metals: $30.4 billion (9%) - For very valuable goods higher transport costs aren't that big of a deal. The strong army is strategic, it gives indirect advantages it is not just for conquering. But about the conquering... They have the strongest land force in the world and should they just develop supertrains and anti ice ships or something? Just give up on world waters? Even if the conquer east Europe they'd still be at the same point. They're good at hacking for sure. And Yandex, VK, culture, video games... Historically they are an industrial power right? They are Transitioning towards virtual which you do not need to put on a container ship. Really not an expert as I said but this seems like common sense, and I'm paying attention from afar. They've been bagholding attempts to improve the situation for centuries "never give up never surrender". Either recreate some giant USSR (not going to happen) or cut losses and accept this weakness, develop other things.
Education
by MrRenev
JP: Exports from Japan surged 16.1% year-on-year in MarchMM Analysis Exports from Japan surged 16.1% year-on-year in March, beating consensus expectations for a rise of 11.4%. It's absolute value has reached a recorded high since 2008 financia crisis, showing that a strong recovery momentum has been reflected on Japan's export data. China is still the largest driving country as usual, with a year-on-year increase of 37.2%. Other regions such as the US and europe all rebounded sharply. The annual growth of the three major goods (transportation, machinery, electrical equipment) has all come to a double-digit rebound. Transportation, which was suppressed by the shortage of automotive chips, has finally made a positive change. But the number short-term production of automotive chips still worth attention. Overall, in line with the explosive growth of machinery export orders in February (annual increase of up to 110%, record high in absolute value), it shows that overseas economic are recovering and corporate are more confident to expand its capital expenditures. Japan’s recent manufacturing and exports will still have a certain degree of growth momentum in the future.
TVC:NI225
by MacroMicro_Global
Taiwan's export orders performed well in FebruaryTaiwan's export order totaled US$42.59 billion in February, with an YOY increase of 48.5%. The export order is estimated to grow even more by US$54.5 ~ US$56 billion in March, according to the ministry. MM analysis ICT ( +88.4% ), electronic products ( +52.4% ) and optical equipment industries ( +59.4% ) became the main driving force, drove up huge amount of demand. Export regions mainly comes from the US ( +50.2% ), China & Hong Kong ( +48.6% ), and Europe ( +73.4% ), implying strong inventory replenishment demand by companies and overall a strong economic rebounds!
by MacroMicro_Global
AUD bulls support threatened AUD/USD extends its four-day losing streak into Tuesday, looking to threaten the September low of 0.7006 while wallowing in three-week lows near 0.7032. AUD futures net positions dropped from 8.9k to 3.8k as 10k+ short positions were opened. Growth in China is slower than expected hence Australian exports to the Asian country could be affected. This coupled with the ongoing trade tensions between the two countries threatens the strength of the AUDUSD. The expectations of a November rate cut and or bond-buying expansion emboldened after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Deputy Governor Dr. Chris Kent and October meeting minutes suggested that additional easing is due on the cards. Further pressurizing the downside in the spot, the US dollar holds onto the overnight bounce, as hopes of a potential US fiscal stimulus deal pre-election fade despite the narrowing differences between the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. DXY net positions in the CFTC COT Weekly report turned positive last week hence we could expect a bullish dollar in the medium term, well at least until the US elections are over. Equity markets are currently on a risk on mode after erasing gains made earlier on Monday. Further concerns about the pandemic globally will keep pressure on the safe haven as more countries start to consider placing strict lockdown measures.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
SHIPPING INDUSTRY of EARTH? “Door-to-Door” SHIPPING INDUSTRY of EARTH? “Door-to-Door” “THE LAST MILE” of FREIGHT? One of the most important ideas in the shipping industry is the idea of “universal balance”. (for example Exports compared to Imports or from an economic-philosophical perspective imbalance in credit or “debt”). Shipping is perhaps one of the most important industries still here on Earth. Unfortunately, most of our Earths “most critical industries” surprisingly have some of the lowest levels of profit for example foods and shipping typically makes less then a few 1% or 2% profit (7% at most). However, the reason maybe because profits go naturally where they should be and not into the stock market or (even) businesses themselves. For example much of the profit goes to the cost of “labor” in shipping or foods services. For the poor, its actually a healthy sign “low profits”. Problems in our Shipping or Foods industry spell some of the most central and “universal” problems of our entire economy. When shipping on Earth stops its a sign of major problems even with the latest” modern version” of capitalism (developed in the “far east” and “far west”)? The main problem historically with the shipping industry is how we understand our future here and perhaps on another planet or moon. Do we (to the) full realize how important shipping is on Earth? Simple Facts about the Shipping Industry on Earth? Most goods are not shipped by “road” in fact about 70% of all goods are (not surprisingly) shipped by sea, and only 18% by road, 9% by rail, 2% by inland waterways and less than 0.25% by air? I was personally very surprised by these numbers, again its an example of how fundamentally “weird transport” (cars?) is to everything on Earth. Somethings are so important that sometimes the price doesn’t matter anymore? UPS is involved in “Door-to-Door” shipping. Its the most difficult and even very dangerous type of shipping (when you think about shipping things internationally). UPS provides “this service” to help people today ship just about anything anywhere? They quoted you a price of this service and it includes all shipping, handling, import and customs duties, making it a hassle-free. So what are the details of UPS: (one of the largest “door to door” shipping companies on Earth?) Employs about 500,000 people. Ships about $70 billon dollars a year (revenue). Net Income about 7% Typical Price of Stock to Earnings Ratio: 20 to 1 (perhaps way way too high and too little profit) Details of Historical Problem of UPS: Perhaps "the most serious" problems for UPS in the "modern history" started in September of 2007 The important fact about this problem at UPS was that this started BEFORE the “other” 2008 housing market loan crash. For UPS this crash lasted only about one year and turned around in February of 2009. Stock prices dropped by ½ going from about $75 dollars per share to a low of $41 per share for UPS (see graph). Biggest Growth Period at for UPS Shipping?: From February of 2009 (after the serious bank crash of 2008) UPS grew and had some of its most important positive years for almost one full decade (thats 10 years of growth for UPS! Doubling and then TRIPLING the price of UPS stock values…?). By 2018 the price of the UPS stock reached very high levels relative to UPS earnings and started to show some of the most “wild price swings” in the history of UPS. How did this effect the rest of the shipping industry? The real question is something “different’ was going on in “shipping” globally by January of 2018. Its possible that something or “too much” was being shipped globally and there was something “in the environment” of Earth itself that effected life on earth and shipping at the start of 2018? This was well before the major (virus) crashes started in Feb of 2020. UPS had “one final peak of priced grace” in October of 2019 and then suddenly started to drop by about 30 points much of which was prior to our recent global crash... I’ve often wondered if it would make sense for UPS to mostly focus on shipping goods to warehouses only? Why would UPS want to do this? This would thereby possibly cause more pollution in the short term but less Carbon Fuel Pollution in the long term? Because people themselves would need to pickup the shipments. However, if you look at whats going on globally in the shipping industry “MOST” (70%) of all goods already are shipped mostly by sea and this would force people to live closer (together) and nearer to larger cities along the coasts forcing customers to “pickup” goods at a local warehouse. Land or "ground" shipping can be made by train or by truck. However, one thing to worry about for the future of companies like UPS is that only 18% of all goods are shipping by land. Logically it maybe makes sense to only focus on moving big items “like the moon or an astroid”? Ground transport is typically more affordable than air, but more expensive than sea, especially in developing countries, where inland infrastructure may not be efficient or even possible? Many goods today are shipped by “intermodal freight transport” which are basically “normal” shipments that involve more than one mode. Because most goods are “ship by sea” they might also be shipped when they arrive by rail or plane and finally truck a UPS truck? One of the most important problems in shipping is called the “Last Mile”. This is a term used in supply chain management and transportation planning to describe how important real people (real door delivery problems) are in moving goods from a transportation hub to their final destination… typically “our front doors”… GLOBAL COMPETITION FOR “DOOR TO DOOR” SHIPPING? Major competitors in the United States include the “government” United States Postal Service (USPS) and FedEx, along with regional carriers. In addition to these domestic carriers, UPS competes with a variety of international operators, including Canada Post, TransForce, Deutsche Post (also known as DHL), Royal Mail, Japan Post Service, India Post, China and *many* other regional carriers in each country, national (or forging government) postal services and air cargo handlers. It maybe wise for UPS (or any shipping company in the world) to not ship “the last mile” and instead when starting up new operations in for example Indo-China or (India, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, or Vietnam) Historically, just about everything has been used in transport. Camels, Dogs and Wolves, Donkey, Elephant, Homing pigeons, Horses, Llamas, Ox, Santa’s Reindeer… and even our heads to carry water for miles and miles? However, less and less is being shipped by humans and surprisingly less and less shipments today are “door to door”. Because there is so “little” profit in Foods and Shipping this has created perhaps the largest “black market” for “unconventional” shipping system. We maybe are not ready yet for the truth. On Earth whats going on is very complex … especially if we are shipping “everyone” someday into the deep Cosmos? It maybe that many private shipping companies need to refocus. There business isn’t about profit? And most of it mysteriously is by or on the “sea”? There are many possibilities for new shipment strategies even DHL is offering a way for people to “buy certain routs” and “invest in a specific route” and get profits from “specific supply chain investments” as a simple person who just “likes that shipment route”. So a new centralized “warehouse” approach to shipping maybe will not work alone. Localized services today are very important and are also international. Finally? What is the future of the shipping industry here on Earth? UPS is perhaps one of the most important practical examples of non-governmental private enterprise in (our) (future) fields of shipping. They have (already) been around for as little as 100 years? What does it mean when the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn and Mars will all be aligned this year or even (so I read in the news) “this week in April”? Its almost like the entire universe is stopping for a moment here on earth and “aligning” with something really really far out? What does does this have anything to do with trillions of packages shipped here on Earth? Perhaps the success of the shipping industry will point us someplace far far away? Anyway, I hope you've really enjoyed my discussion on “the future of shipping”… ;) The Cosmos is perhaps “our man’s” “final frontier”.. we don't really have a lot of control over the universe… there is a lot of things moving around out there someplace in our universe.. and today we cant “ship” to many-places “off earth”? Our entire planets future might just depend on “shipping companies” like UPS? To the moon to another star system (or galaxy?)? however, this doesn’t stop us from trying to get involved in shipping all types of strange things all over the world and or even to just look at the next full moon with new possibilities. Hope this helps everyone! Asher
NYSE:UPS
by idasuperman
Nikkei 225 Possibilities of Bullish ContinuationThe bull is weighing against the bear at the moment on TVC:NI225 knowing how the global equity markets turning from red to green because recently market participants having higher risk appetites. Also, at this point, we know that YEN losing its strength against may other currencies and it's been a couple of days now so I think that should help the export-oriented economy country like japan as well. We are having a cheaper currency which will obviously help the businesses to export more in ease. Businesses will rise back and eventually it will grow the demand for such domestic equities leading the index higher.
TVC:NI225Long
by jessi061
Will the BoJ Increase QE In Two Weeks? Doesn't Matter.With markets on edge and Japanese inflation data this week, those short the yen are hoping the Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko " Kamikaze " Kuroda, will further increase the balance sheet through more quantitative easing. Because when everything else fails, he'll try to go all in. Or will he? Essentially, his brilliant idea to implement negative rates, or NIRP, was seen as a policy error even quicker than the Fed's first rate hike in seven years. Economists, bulls and bears alike, said that NIRP would do absolutely nothing for the Japanese economy. But, Kuroda didn't go from no NIRP to NIRP in a week's time to strengthen the economy. It was to deter yen strength and perk up hemorrhaging risk assets, which failed miserably. If inflation data comes in soft, we are likely to hear the threat of quantitative easing but it is unlikely that the BoJ can match the most bang for the yen traders saw when this whole quasi-policy began. Analysts expect that Kuroda may increase the level of exchange-traded funds, a market where the BoJ already owns 52 percent , since there is virtually no more debt to purchase do to existing quantitative easing measures. It's possible, but does not matter in the end. The global marco downturn is in the drivers seat, and a single central bank cannot change that, especially when $12.3 trillion in QE and 600-plus rate cuts since the financial crisis have barely kept the global economy spuddering along. With global trade continuing to collapse, the weak yen facade is crumbling. January's exports fell a whopping 12.9 percent and imports dropping 18 percent. GDP contracted 1.5 percent in 2015 on an annual basis, and Japan has seen three recessions since PM Shinzo Abe took over in 2012. External debt and the BoJ balance sheet hit all-time highs (unlike the Nikkei) . Those nickel-and-diming headlines - be careful. As we've seen in February alone, the actions of the BoJ erased nearly eight months of gains. Do macro, or macro will do you HARD. I reiterate a target of 110 by Q3 and 105 by early-2017. That will likely be for starters if the US falls into recession, as forecasted . Potential pullbacks to 114.55 and 116 on central bank induced risk taking probable. The problem with this crusade for inflation, and this goes for all central banks, by reckless measures is fiscal calamity will arise when inflation takes hold. Rates will have to increase, and debt will not be payable. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US TRADE BALANCE UPDATELooking at the Export and Import data of the last several years we can assume that the US is currently changing its course from consumption oriented to export oriented economy. The change will not be overnight and may take up to several decades, but eventually we can see the US trade deficit gradually erased. CURRENT SITUATION: On the export side, we can see that US has restored its sales to other countries far beyond the peak of 2008. However the US dollar appreciation of the last year has had it impact on exports, which are now contracting, as US goods are becoming less competitive on the global market in terms of prices. On the import side, US has restored its consumption back to the 2008 levels, however did not expand beyond it significantly. Imports trend laterally since about 2011 after reaching 2008 peal level!
F
by Killy_Mel