If the market finally topped, this is nextSince the recent bull move at the end of October began, we have stayed above the same trendline. Not only did the final hour of trading break below that line, it also closed below it. Is this the first indication we have begun Cycle wave C down?
Based on the historical quartile percentages, it appears Cycle wave C and ultimately Supercycle wave 2 will bottom below 3041. The original call for the bottom in July 2022 was to occur around 2400 in the first quarter of 2025. Those dates initially moved forward when I thought Cycle B ended early and I raised the levels to 2700-2900 as well. A bottom in 2025 looks all but certain due to the elongation of Cycle wave B. It looks like the low should stay above 2474.27 but let's see what the other studies say.
The duration models have the most likely lengths at 2499 and 1365 hours which are the respective lengths of B and A. I will once again discount these lengths due to the macro nature of the forecasted wave. The then longest durations are at 2720-2740 and 1240-1260 followed by 4080-4100. The price models agree the most at a bottom between 2900-3050, with the next pocket of agreement at 2650-2750. Other levels are available as high as 3100-3250 and low as 2350-2400.
My derivative model is unable to produce enough data due to the macro position of the sought wave.
The final study compares specific characteristics of the preceding waves to determine what Cycle wave C could do based on historical similarities. Cycle wave B was longer than Cycle wave A, which while less frequent, wave C's behavior is relatively consistent. Cycle wave B was 2499 trading hours long (assuming it has finally completed) while wave A was 1365. This means A was 0.5462 times that size of B. I looked for waves that had the same ratio between 0.5 and 0.65. I further sought historicals where the price movement of A/B was between 1-1.15. In the current case Cycle wave A moved 1.0316 times that of B. Wave B nearly retraced all of Cycle wave A's movement at 96.94%. The of this query provided realistic goals of what Cycle wave C could look like. Duration models like the window from 2261-3864 with the median at 2842. The price models like the low between 3165.62-3378.02. The low is expected to remain above 2729.944 according to this study.
My preliminary assessment puts the bottom around 2150-2200 trading hours and around 2650-2900 for price. This would put the market bottom around mid-March 2025. This is the green box in the bottom right of the main chart above.
I have figured China taking Taiwan would be a factor in the coming declines, but deflation in the U.S. economy, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, politics in the U.S. will possibly play factors too. This is the final piece of the ABC correction which is a shorter variation of the 2000-2009 more macro ABC correction. Once we bottom out, the next impulsive cycle should send the S&P 500 index beyond 8000 over the next 15-20 years.
I am also working on my modified wave analysis for DIS, JPM, and KO over the next few months. Follow me for more analysis and happy hunting.
