Exxon's Make-or-Break Moment: $123 Resistance in FocusThe chart distinctly illustrates that the stock has been in a consolidation phase for over a year and is presently trading slightly below its resistance zone.
For a potential upward movement, the price must surpass the 123 level and maintain its position above this threshold.
At the same time, there is a significant likelihood that the stock price may encounter rejection once more, leading to a decline towards its trendline support level.
Exxon
ExxonMobil projects stability in global oil demand through 2050ExxonMobil has released a report projecting that global oil demand will remain stable until 2050 despite the accelerating shift towards renewable energy sources. According to ExxonMobil, oil demand is expected to stabilise after 2030, maintaining levels above 100 million barrels per day, closely aligning with the current 102.2 million barrels per day. This forecast starkly contrasts with its competitor, BP, which anticipates a decline to 75 million barrels per day by 2050.
The report highlights that petroleum products will continue to play a critical role in industrial processes and heavy transportation sectors such as shipping, trucking, and aviation. Moreover, ExxonMobil notes that despite the increased adoption of electric vehicles and other renewable energy resources, oil and natural gas are projected to constitute over half of the global energy mix by 2050. This outlook supports an optimistic long-term scenario for ExxonMobil's core oil and gas operations.
Technical analysis of Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM)
Reviewing potential trading strategies based on the technical setup of ExxonMobil's stock:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend : the stock is trending upward within an ascending channel, having recently rebounded from the support level at 114.00 USD and approaching a critical resistance at 120.00 USD
Short-term target : the immediate upside target lies at the resistance level of 123.65 USD
Medium-term target : a breach of the 123.65 USD resistance could pave the way for further gains towards 127.60 USD
Key support : positioned at 114.00 USD
Reversal indicator : if the stock breaks below the key support at 114.00 USD, it will negate the current bullish scenario, potentially driving prices down to 108.45 USD
ExxonMobil's shares currently benefit from positive momentum, having broken the upper boundary of a descending channel. A successful breach of the key resistance at 120.00 USD would signify an exit from a Triangle pattern, potentially strengthening the bullish momentum with a target at 127.60 USD, aligned with the pattern's projected outcome.
Investors should closely monitor ExxonMobil's movements, especially in light of its optimistic oil demand forecast and the potential impact on its stock price in the context of prevailing market dynamics and energy sector trends.
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Exxon Mobile (XOM): Awaiting Long Term Entry at $65Our group has recently revisited Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), and while there hasn't been much change, it's worth reassessing. The stock has entered the zone between 100% and 138%, which we identify as the level for Wave A and has respected this level.
Long-Term Outlook:
We anticipate a significant downward movement over the long term, potentially reaching the $65 level. This is where we plan to make substantial long-term purchases. The range between $65.50 and $64.40 has been consistently respected, reinforcing our strategy to wait for these levels before entering the market heavily.
Short-Term Outlook:
In the short term, Exxon has been trading within a range for nearly a year and a half. It briefly broke below this range to complete the larger Wave (A)and then broke above it to finish the sub-wave A. We are now entering a potential Wave B zone.
Current Strategy:
- Long-Term: We are waiting for the price to drop to the $65 range before making significant purchases.
- Short-Term: We are monitoring the $104 to $100 zone, which looks attractive for a potential reversal. However, given the risk, we are not placing any entries yet and will wait to observe the market's reaction.
Exxon continues the Energy forever bull marketExxonMobil Corporation (/ˌɛksɒnˈmoʊbəl/ EKS-on-MOH-bəl; commonly shortened to Exxon ) is an American multinational oil and gas corporation and the largest direct descendant of John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil. The company, which took its present name in 1999 per the merger of Exxon and Mobil, is vertically integrated across the entire oil and gas industry, and within it is also a chemicals division which produces plastic, synthetic rubber, and other chemical products. ExxonMobil is headquartered near the Houston suburb of Spring, Texas, though officially incorporated in the U.S. state of New Jersey. : 1 It is the largest United States-based oil and gas producing company. ExxonMobil is also the eighth largest company in the world by revenue and the third largest in the US.
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on XOM:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 120usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $10.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Exxon Mobil: On the Brink of a Collapse?Having not reviewed Exxon Mobil for a while, it's important to note its strong correlation with oil prices, on which we're currently positioned in a short trade. Accordingly, we also anticipate a downward trend for Exxon Mobil that has yet to conclude. The construction of Wave E or overarching Wave (A) peaked at approximately $96. The critical question now is whether we're forming a Flat in the form of either a Regular or Expanded Flat.
We'll observe how this unfolds without making speculative judgments due to the unusual nature of witnessing an ABCDE movement towards Wave (A). Over the next year, we expect Exxon Mobil to decline, targeting a retracement between $75 and $50 as the maximum. Any level within this range presents a solid buying opportunity for a long-term investment, anticipating a robust Wave III.
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought XOM ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 105usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $2.37.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$XOM Is Undervalued. The logic is that price will gravitate to liquidity. Exxon Mobile seems to have an abnormal amount of liquidity sitting above all time highs. Gut says we take out those highs pretty soon.
Here are some other considerations:
-Exxon Mobil also currently has the highest percentage of short interest in modern history.
-The company has a low valuation of 11x earnings, pays a 3.66% dividend yield with over 40 years of consecutive annual dividend growth, and its balance sheet has a AA- credit rating.
-Exxon earns twice as much income and 7.5x as much revenue as Nvidia.
-Warren Buffett has been adding to their oil positions (Buffet Effect).
-Energy sector sentiment is quite poor.
Exxon Mobil to target 111.6 after crossing resistance line1-hour chart, the stock is trying to beat the resistance, but still does not have enough bullish power.
However, it seams it will rebound soon,and after crossing the resistance (blue line) around 104.7, the target will be 111.6 - A rising wedge chart pattern.
Below support A, the next down target will be support B line.
RSI is positive
Energy Stocks: Macro Fib SchematicsThis idea beholds 6 of the largest Energy companies in the world.
(Shell, Chevron, Exxon, BP, Duke, and OXY Petroleum.)
These macro schematics have been crafted through meticulous Fibonacci techniques.
I've laid every one on a 3 month timeframe starting at 1988. History buffs will understand the time reference to the rough "start" of Middle Eastern conflicts from the West and the rise of the price of "fossil fuels".
I'm not begging anyone to understand this genius mastery of Fib tools. You either see it or you don't.
I've linked my ENERGY COMMODITIES idea below for more analysis.
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought XOM when they made "more money than God" here:
or ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 110usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-10-27,
for a premium of approximately $1.43.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
EXXON MOBIL Buy opportunity lower.Exxon Mobil is trading between the MA50 and MA200 (1d) which is approximately the 0.618 - 0.5 Fibonacci range.
Technically the most usual buy opportunity is on the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the 0.236 Fibonacci level breaks.
Targets:
1. 119.00 (the High on 3 separate occasions).
Tips:
1. When the RSI (1d) is on a downtrend and reverses to cross over the MA trend line, it is an action that validates the buy. Use this as an additional tool.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Make Exxon Great Again. As Here's A Hundred Fold OpportunityElectric vehicles are growing so fast that Exxon Mobil is preparing for a future when "customers don’t need that gasoline".
Exxon Mobil Corp., which operates one of the world’s biggest oil-refining networks, is trying to be more responsive to changing consumer demands as the energy transition gathers pace. The changes it’s considering include potentially replacing some gasoline production with chemicals.
The oil giant has long pursued a strategy of upgrading refineries to expand production and make higher-value products from crude oil such as lubricants and plastic feedstock. But it now sees those projects potentially helping the company to move away from traditional fuels, demand for which is likely to wane in coming decades.
The strategy, discussed in August 2023 by executives at a presentation to investors and media, shows how even Exxon, one of the leading proponents of fossil fuels, is being forced to reckon with a future in which electric vehicles significantly eat into gasoline consumption.
Exxon has already reduced production of fuel oil and high-sulfur petroleum at refineries in Singapore and the UK. Over time, it’s open to cutting output of gasoline, the focus of the company’s refining business since Henry Ford introduced the Model T nearly 100 years ago. The goal is to produce more chemicals, found in everything from paint to plastic, for which there are few low-carbon alternatives.
"We’re planning on modifying some of that yield from gasoline to distillate and chemicals feed," Jack Williams, Exxon senior vice president, said earlier this year at the company’s office in Spring, Texas. "We’ve got projects that we know we would do to take those steps."
Exxon gets most of its earnings from oil and natural gas production but refining has always been in its corporate DNA, right back to its original incarnation as part of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, which was established in the 19th century.
Refining allows Exxon to earn money right along the fossil fuel supply chain, from the wellhead to the gas tank. But with traditional fuels such as gasoline under threat from EVs, refineries worldwide are being forced to adapt quickly. Some European plants shut down during the pandemic, while others in the US switched to biodiesel.
Exxon wants to take a more nuanced approach by upgrading facilities to switch in and out of products depending on demand. To give an example, an Exxon refinery in Singapore used to produce fuel oil that sold for $10 per barrel below the price of Brent crude, but after a recent upgrade, the facility produces lubricant base stocks that sell for $50 above Brent.
Exxon has upgraded and added to its refineries at Fawley in the UK and Beaumont in Texas to produce more diesel, which is used for heavy-duty transportation and is less vulnerable to competition from electric vehicles.
"You just have more variables now due to the energy transition," said Jay Saunders, a natural resources fund managers at Jennison Associates, which has $186 billion under management. "Having a high-quality refining asset with flexibility will be very important."
Exxon’s refining and chemicals footprint is at least double that of its Big Oil competitors, potentially making it more vulnerable to a speedy energy transition, and especially the growth of electric vehicles. But executives believe the potential for reconfigurations is far greater than that of its peers, providing an opportunity to profit in a low-carbon future.
"This really allows us to pivot as demand evolves," said Karen McKee, President of Exxon’s Product Solutions division.
Biodiesel is particularly attractive to Exxon because reconfiguring its existing refineries costs about half as much as building a new plant, said Neil Hansen, senior vice president of product solutions. Demand for biodiesel, which is manufactured from vegetable oil or recycled restaurant grease, is expected to quadruple to 9 million barrels a day by 2050, he said.
Exxon is halfway through an eight-year plan to overhaul its fuels and chemicals division, which also involves cutting costs, improving operational performance and selling assets that don’t make the grade. Exxon will operate just 13 refineries worldwide by the end of 2023 after selling five in the past four years to focus on the biggest and lowest-cost operations.
Chemicals will be key to the strategy’s success. Exxon sees demand growth for its high-performance chemicals at about 7% a year, contrasting sharply with gasoline, which is expected to peak globally by the end of the decade. To keep up with this demand, Exxon plans to build a new dedicated chemical plant every four to seven years, Williams said.
The company’s refineries provide an additional means to make chemicals, but they will focus on responding to consumer preference rather than making a big bet on any particular product, Williams said.
"We’re not going to do it while the demand is still there," he said. "We’re going to it at a time when the demand trends are clear and customers don’t need that gasoline."
At the same time technical picture in Exxon stocks (dividends adjusted) illustrates Exxon got a huge support of 30-years SMA, and right here is a key Multiyear breakout.
Further a hundred fold growth is right there to come. Make Exxon Great Again.
#MEGA
XOM, HUGE WAVE-EXTENSIONS, Oil-Market View, UPCOMING TRENDS!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about XOM on several timeframe perspectives. The oil market has shown up with a massive pullback to the downside since the war developments have put heavy pressure on the whole oil market and drove the supply rally within the market. Since then the market managed to recover with a substantial rally moving into new all-time-highs and is actually forming a massive gigantic formational-structure here from where the market is setting up further determination dimensions.
Currently XOM is forming a continuation-formation on the local timeframes which is an crucial wedge-formation, and this wedge-formation has a increased potential to complete within the next times. Once this formation has been completed the targets as mentioned in my analysis are going to be activated. From there on the volatility within the market has to be determined further and if the already established XOM developments hold on there is an increased possibility for the market to continue into the already established direction.
XOM being the largest market-cap stock within the oil market sector is driving the oil market and wall street developments of oil stocks increasing by over 60%. The fact that the oil market could recover from the main war shocks that showed up with massive bearish pullbacks within the whole market does not mean this holds true for the whole stock market because there are sector stocks within the market that actually show greater bearish inclinations. In this case it will be highly determining on how the whole oil market actually continues and if the established dynamic holds on for this sector stock.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
XOM has shown a consolidation patternXOM has shown a consolidation pattern
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of ExxonMobil's stock in the past 4 years. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, ExxonMobil's stock has shown a consolidation pattern of high to strong overall after completing a small level double top at the beginning of this year! The small double top of ExxonMobil's stock at the beginning of this year was suppressed by the 3.618 level of the gold split at the bottom of the graph, and did not touch any strong support level for the low point of the pullback thereafter! So, in the future, the stock market of ExxonMobil is likely to weaken and continue to retreat towards the downside!
Double top form of ExxonMobil's stock has been completedDouble top form of ExxonMobil's stock has been completed
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of ExxonMobil's stocks over the past 4 years. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, the small-scale double top form of ExxonMobil's stock has been completed. Now, there is a long short competition at the bottom of the figure against the 3.000 and 3.272 positions in the golden section, and it is likely to break down in the future! For a period of time to come, just use the long start level of ExxonMobil's stock in late March this year at $99.63 as the long short divide!
XOM Exxon Mobil Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought XOM here:
Or when they made more money than God:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 105usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-8-18,
for a premium of approximately $2.16.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Crude Oil - Bearish On Oil? Saudis Made The US Cover Its Short.I've had a number of successful calls on crude oil, which you can find in my post history. In those calls, I had always been bearish on oil, anticipating a run to a 4-handle.
However, I reassessed my prior assumptions when the MMs took out the Low Of The Year in quick order to start May. I haven't been particularly sure in the time that has passed, but between price action and some recent news, I now believe oil is set to reverse.
The situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is very tense. The pandemic has taken a huge toll on the country, which the Party is not reporting to the world, and you can tell this if you look at their obviously bogus COVID death and infection stats published on major data aggregators.
This matters because since Putin invaded Ukraine last year, there's become something of an alliance between the Saudis, Russia, China, and India, with many oil transactions no longer settling in the U.S. Petrodollar.
So you have to be really careful trading right now with the geopolitical situation at hand. Everyone has flipped bullish on equities and is expecting a new parabolic run, but the situation is just as prime for a sharp and dramatic turnaround, which I reference in my recent call on the SPY ETF:
SPY - It's Life or Death For Bears
When it comes to China, Xi has the looming threat of having inherited Jiang Zemin and the CCP's persecution of Falun Gong, which targeted 100 million people and has even harvested their organs.
Xi and the CCP also face the growing trend of the movement to return to China's traditional 5,000 year culture, which is the crown jewel, the magnum opus, of the whole world and all of human history.
So the most important country in the world is very unstable, and you aren't hearing anything about what is going on. But the controllers know something is wrong and are scurrying about frantically, thinking about how they can take your stuff on the way down.
So, my bearishness on oil has been based on the fact that the Biden Administration has drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, significant because although OPEC+ is a huge producer of oil, the US and its vassals, such as Canada, by far produce the most oil in the world.
Washington selling the SPR is a short on the market by definition and they unloaded hard in the 90s and 80s, saying they wanted to buy back in the 60s.
Yet the two times we've had oil in the 60s, they haven't rebought. I believe they intended to drive the market lower for longer and rebuy then.
A few recent pieces of news came out.
One is OPEC had a scheduled meeting in Vienna in early June, which they held in person, despite the next major meeting being in July. During that meeting, Reuters, WSJ, and Bloomberg found themselves disinvited, while every other media did not.
Moreover, on Friday The Washington Post stated that Saudi King MBS warned the Biden Administration it would inflict economic pain when the US complained about production cuts.
The Saudis have teeth because they own Aramco, which is also stationed in the United States, and the Saudis buy arms from the military industrial complex.
NATO and the US needs to have the Saudis not wanting to get rid of them if they are to have any chance of deposing Putin and taking Russia for the New World Order.
It's been well known that OPEC+, of which the Saudis are the biggest producer by far, want higher prices and need $80-100 to continue to run a national surplus.
The second biggest news is a June 9 announcement from the Department of Energy stating the US will replenish 6 million barrels of oil from the SPR.
This means Washington is covering its shorts.
Now, you'll complain, fairly so, that the Democratic Socialists of America have sold some 280 million barrels of oil from the SPR since Biden was inaugurated in 2021, and you're right.
6 million barrels is certainly a drop compared to what they've sold.
However, a look at the EIA website puts the 6 million barrel figure into perspective: since November of '22, only 20 million barrels have been drained.
I will repeat myself again: the market maker is covering its shorts and that means it's very immediately dangerous to be short on oil and oil companies.
So, this is hard to go long on because the delta between $70 and the $63 low is 10%, and on futures at $1,000 PnL per $1 move per lot, that's a lot of "Ouching" as Abdulaziz has said for early comers.
However, generally speaking a bottom is a bottom and that means there won't be a new low. Either way, it's up to you to figure out where to go long and when to go long and if you want to go long.
The most immediate target, even in an ultimately bearish continuation scenario, is $85, and more specifically, $95.
And you may very well see a 9 handle as early as August or September.
The problem with short on oil is on the monthly:
COVID hysteria was an ultimate bottom. If -$40 wasn't an ultimate bottom then you call your mom and ask her what an ultimate bottom could be and let us know in the comments.
If you've got an ultimate bottom and no real highs were taken, the the market is aiming higher, and not lower.
A breakdown of price here means that oil as an industry is not going to recover, but yet green energy is a fallacy and alternative energy sources are nowhere to be found, while worldwide crude supply is actually not particularly abundant anymore.
So what fundamental story is supposed to be used to drive oil lower? A bunch of talking heads on Twitter complaining that oil is going lower?
That doesn't move markets. Producers have to deposit actual oil to go bigly short because contracts settle in physical goods.
Moreover, the price action in March before the big move down in May was really, really peculiar. You see it more clearly on the weekly:
Like, $2 away from a breakaway gap is where it chose to dump and actually set a new low of the year?
Really, to me, this says that since we haven't dumped anymore and now we're getting fundamentally extremely, extremely bullish news, that the target can only be $95.
People, for whatever reason, tend to like to buy above highs and so they'll get bullish at $85 and $95.
But why not get bullish at $70?
Warren Buffet keeps buying OXY. Is he doing this because oil is on the verge of another 5 year bear market?
If oil is going to pump, what does this mean for equities? What does it mean for the VIX?
With what's going on in the world, what does it mean for the future? How long will the happy continue?
It's really worth giving some sober thought to, and it's really worth cutting the furus and the propaganda outlets out of your information cycle.