Exxon
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)Oil companies have been hit hardest by the drop in oil price in the first quarter of 2020. Since then, oil has been rapidly recovering. Locally, Exxon Mobil has followed the same trend.
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) is moving in a large downtrend channel. We are below the middle line of this channel. If we break it, it will reach the upper resistance line.
Best regards EXCAVO
XOM Ready for the Bullish ImpulseGood morning traders, today we bring you a bullish scenario that we consider interesting in EXXON MOBIL.
🔸From a technical perspective, we can detail that the price bounced off a strong Support Zone.
🔸Then, it broke to the upside the Descending Trendline and continued its upward movement, with a marked uptrend.
🔸We see that the price began to consolidate in a corrective structure, and, if we take the upside movement that happened in the past, both corrections occurred in the same price range.
🔸A couple of days ago there was a very strong candle to the upside, which confirmed the breakout of the structure.
🔸As the previous resolution was a strong move towards the resistance zone, we expect the same behavior in the current situation.
EXXON MOBIL LONG|ECONOMIC RECOVERY BET|
XOM is an oil major, and the stock fell from 70$ to 30$ as a result of the corona-crisis
That brought economic recession and a decrease in both demand and price of oil
Later, XOM established a double bottom after retesting the lows of the pandemic
And now it is surging.
I think that buying XOM is a bet on the economic recovery
Which will happen eventually
The target of 65-67$ is very realistic
As this is the minimum of what the company should be worth without outperforming
I would say, that 65$ is the price which will be achieved by just getting the demand for oil back to normal
Without any further increase in oil prices. (As there is plenty of ready to go supply, so the new demand will be covered easily and so the oil price will remain stable as the oil companies revenue will grow!
Therefore, Long XOM.
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Elliott Wave View: Exxon Mobil Pulling BackElliott Wave View in Exxon (ticker: XOM) shows that the stock has an incomplete bearish sequence against June 8 high. The decline from June 8 high unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure, where wave (A) ended at 44.75 low. Afterwards, the bounce in wave (B) ended at 49.8 as a zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure in lesser degree. The bounce reached the 100% extension in 3 swing at the blue box area. Up from wave (A) low, wave A ended at 47.76 high and wave B pullback ended at 47.14 low. The stock then extended higher in wave C, which ended at 49.80 high. Exxon then turned lower from the blue box area. The decline has broken below wave (A) low, confirming next leg lower in wave (C) is already in progress.
Down from wave (B) high, wave 1 ended at 45.40 low. The internal subdivision of wave 1 unfolded as 5 waves impulse. Wave ((i)) ended at 47.24 low and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at 48.75 high. The stock then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) towards 45.77 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 48.20 high. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 45.98 low, which completed wave 1. Pair then bounced in wave 2 and ended at 47.35 high. Currently, wave 3 is in progress, where wave ((i)) ended at 46.65 low and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 47.22 high. Wave ((iii)) has resumed lower and near term, while below 49.80 high, expect bounce in 3,7, or 11 swing to fail and Exxon to extend lower again.
Elliott Wave View: Exxon Mobil Pulling BackElliott Wave View in Exxon (ticker: XOM) shows that the stock has an incomplete bearish sequence against June 8 high. The decline from June 8 high unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure, where wave (A) ended at 44.75 low. Afterwards, the bounce in wave (B) ended at 49.8 as a zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure in lesser degree. The bounce reached the 100% extension in 3 swing at the blue box area. Up from wave (A) low, wave A ended at 47.76 high and wave B pullback ended at 47.14 low. The stock then extended higher in wave C, which ended at 49.80 high. Exxon then turned lower from the blue box area. The decline has broken below wave (A) low, confirming next leg lower in wave (C) is already in progress.
Down from wave (B) high, wave 1 ended at 45.40 low. The internal subdivision of wave 1 unfolded as 5 waves impulse. Wave ((i)) ended at 47.24 low and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at 48.75 high. The stock then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) towards 45.77 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 48.20 high. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 45.98 low, which completed wave 1. Pair then bounced in wave 2 and ended at 47.35 high. Currently, wave 3 is in progress, where wave ((i)) ended at 46.65 low and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 47.22 high. Wave ((iii)) has resumed lower and near term, while below 49.80 high, expect bounce in 3,7, or 11 swing to fail and Exxon to extend lower again.
XOM - ENTRY Above Resistance at the 236@ 47.73XOM EXXON
ENTRY = Breakout Above resistance at the 236@ 47.73
1st Target = Gap fill 50.60
2nd Target = 58.63
HODL Target = 618@ 76+
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
Elliott Wave View: Further Strength in Exxon MobilExxon Mobil (ticker: XOM) shows an incomplete bullish sequence from 3.23.2020 low favoring more upside. Short term, the rally from 5.15.2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 5.15.2020 low, wave 1 ended at 46.63 and wave 2 dips ended at 43.3. Wave 3 is now in progress as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2 low at 43.3, wave ((i)) ended at 47.14 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 44.37.
Up from there, the stock rallies and ended wave (i) at 45.97 and dips to 44.80 ended wave (ii). Wave (iii) ended at 49.40 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 48.16. While above there, and more importantly above 44.37, expect the stock to resume higher in wave wave (v). This move also ends wave ((iii)) in higher degree, then it should pullback in wave ((iv)) and then resumes higher again. The stock should see a few more highs to complete 5 waves up from 5.15.2020 low.
Short term, XOM still needs to break above 49.40 to avoid a double correction. Short Term target higher is 61.8 – 76.4 Fibonacci extension from 3.23.2020 low which comes at 51.9 – 54.7 area. Stock eventually has scope to reach 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from 3.23.2020 low which comes at 59.17 – 63.65.
Bearish View on DowThanks for viewing.
This is just from a technical view - earnings may surprise to the upside - and everyone may decide to value the market exactly the same a Jan - Feb 2020 - who knows.
My view is bearish because of:
Technical:
- For those that value Elliot Wave; I cannot see wave (4) and (5) as already having formed - but instead see us nearing the end of wave (4) formation,
- If this count is correct a reasonable target is 14,500 which is around the 0.65 Fib for the price rise since March 2009,
- If the EW count is correct, the wave (1) low will act as strong support - so 24,681 should not be exceeded (I note that the NQ has already breached this mark),
- The MACD histogram is trending down towards the zero line,
- There appears to be 'resistance' to the RSI going above 60 - in a bear market RSI of 60 tends to act as strong resistance (at least on the daily time-frame),
- A rising wedge seem to have formed and may have already broken out of the bottom of the formation,
- The recent local high of 24,264 still haven't been exceeded - if this remains unbroken - look out below,
- The 54 SMA moving average (which is very close) will likely act as resistance.
Fundamental:
- There seems not to be sufficient testing, mask-wearing, contact-tracing to fill me with confidence that this is even close to being considered contained,
- Despite the Fed pledging to back-stop the corporate debt - Corporations are still entering bankruptcy proceedings. The Fed can print $ from nothing with the press of a key, but they cannot print supply chains or consumer demand (which will remain subdued for some time to come,
- Your risk tolerance is significantly higher than most peoples if you are investing in Oil and Gas Exploration and Production at this time. I read a publication on the upcoming reporting of Exxon, that had a consensus expectation EPS of $0.02 and a price prediction of 10% price rise from last close of around $40 per share. I'm not sure how an EPS of $0.02 is bullish. Yesterday I saw Crude prices approach $10 a bbl - that is even stretching it for the lowest cost producers in the world, I would guess that there is not a single primary producer in the U.S. that is making profit at these levels (www.theguardian.com This article puts Exxon break even price over $70 a bbl - hope it isn't that high).
- It's not all negative, not all Companies reporting have supply chain issues, some can easily pivot to work at home policies, and may even benefit from increased advertising spending during a recession.
Disclosure: I am short after getting stopped into a short trade last week. It hasn't all gone my way since then - but I am hanging in there to see how it eventuates.
Good luck everyone, and protect those funds. I'm off for a run.
Price Performance of 'Big Oil' this yearIt has been one of the most dramatic years for oil markets ever. From demand destruction caused by the coronavirus to the Russia-Saudi price war to US crude prices turning negative.
What does it all mean for the oil industry and ‘Big Oil’?
## Saudi Aramco and Sinopec are not traditionally part of ‘Big Oil’ but they are huge global players worthy of being listed.