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EXY

Fib S1-S2 congestionThere is nothing new in this market world. Patterns do get replicated, otherwise head and shoulders and double bottoms would not exist... The big pattern we are seeing now is a broadened replication of previous pattern. Observe how prior to the significant moves, price congested between Fibonacci yearly S1 and S2 levels. Back in late 2014, there was more stability, hence price was nicely contained by S1-S2. Now we are seeing the same but with larger sways due to instability. R1 = PP + ((High – Low) x .382) R2 = PP + ((High – Low) x .618) I do not exclude we might get stuck in Obama-Merkel range (gray box) a sort of mutual agreement between US and EU. Though price behaves differently now, we are in lower bottom of Yearly Fib levels, Yearly Camarilla and so on. Note this EURO INDEX-USD INDEX spread chart. Large broadening sways are signs of crisis and instability. We observe those broadening tops, bottoms, megaphones not only in SPX500 but in EURUSD and other pairs. Its a zombie market after FED started buying stocks that caused SPX500 zombious rise (ignoring all fundamentals). Forex follows SPX500 and lags by a few seconds after it. Those patterns indicate instability. One can not do trend trading now as the highs and lows get violated either way. My suggestion is to do reactionary day trading starting at London session on 15 min- 30 min chart using daily pivot range, 3 day pivot range, opening ranges (ACD) for detecting the daily bias and daily camarilla for targets.
by ICFX
3
EXY - Bearish engulfingBearish engulfing is one of the most reliable trading patterns (along with morning star) and in 80 percent cases generates a bearish reversal. Here, bearish candle engulfed 2 previous days what is rather significant. Price usually pulls back to the middle of bearish engulfing pattern before further drop. That is what we observing on Euro index. We also reached weekly R3 reversal level. Note also how price reacts at Camarilla S3-R3 reversal levels (those levels contain so called "value zone") and Camarilla S4-R4 breakout levels (so called "floor and roof") For educational purposes only.
TVC:EXYShort
by ICFX
Weekly targetsThat is how I see it. Price retested April opening range. Just as it did with yearly opening range (see my previous post). Aswe noted earlier, Camarilla is very good tool for realistic targets. Fibonacci weekly pivot support S1 is an important level - watch it. S5 is a maximum target for the week I would say. In case of a bullish contrarian move (what I doubt, see my previous post) - weekly Fibonacci pivot resistance R1 is the top for it. Weekly CPR is thin, so it will be rather volatile week.
Short
by ICFX
EURO CURRENCY INDEX (EXY) Monthly, Weekly, DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. Trades made when the monthly, weekly and daily arrows are pointing in the same direction are the most profitable. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
TVC:EXY
by Dinjin
3
EXY - oversupplyEuro index chart. Monthly. Price is driven by global supply and demand. And what we are observing, is a clear oversupply of euro (all selling) and weakening demand (less international interest in euro) on universal scale. Buyers failed to break the supply line and April opened below the demand line with a gap. Top Absolute Correlation 1 EURUSD - USDX -96.8% 2 EURUSD - USDPLN -95.8% 3 EURUSD - USDCZK -92.7% 4 EURUSD - EURSGD 88.9% 5 EURUSD - EURCHF 86.7% 6 EURUSD - USDSGD -81.6% 7 EURUSD - USDHUF -79.9% 8 EURUSD - EURJPY 78.7% 9 EURUSD - EURCAD 74.7% 10 EURUSD - HK50 70.5%
TVC:EXYShort
by ICFX
EUR broke downDeMark - Sperendao analysis of EURO index. Here we weighed EUR versus 2 biggest world currencies US dollar and Japanese yen . Clear signs of bullish collapse. We identified the right TD supply and demand points and analyzed the monthly structure. Breakdown of the major TD supply line occurred in July - August 2019 and it was confirmed by retest already in December. After passing through the most recent TD demand supply line (which is weak as it is flat and is expected to be broken due to the previous action) we should see price trending to 2000 lows (0.84 and might be below but I will just leave it here:) and considering volatility I would not be surprised if we would get there with 3 monthly candles. EU (EEA) crisis is only developing. Top Absolute Correlation EURUSD M 1. EURUSD - USDX -96.8% 2 EURUSD - USDPLN -95.8% 3 EURUSD - USDCZK -92.7% 4 EURUSD - EURSGD 88.9% 5 EURUSD - EURCHF 86.7% 6 EURUSD - USDSGD -81.6% 7 EURUSD - USDHUF -79.9% 8 EURUSD - EURJPY 78.7% 9 EURUSD - EURCAD 74.7% 10 EURUSD - HK50 70.5% Top Absolute Correlation EURJPY M 1 EURJPY - SGDJPY 89.5% 2 EURJPY - EURSGD 86.1% 3 EURJPY - EURCHF 82.1% 4 EURJPY - CADJPY 81.3% 5 EURJPY - EURUSD 78.7% 6 EURJPY - USDPLN -77.8% 7 EURJPY - CHFJPY 76.4% 8 EURJPY - USDCZK -75.9% 9 EURJPY - NOKJPY 74.1% 10 EURJPY - XAGEUR -70.8%
Short
by ICFX
DM breakdown validHere I did 2 DM projections as regard where EURO index is gonna land. There are 3 ways to do DM post breakout projections. 1. From uppermost shadow to the trendline - works 60 % 2. From the shadow of a candle with highest close to the trendline - works 90 % 3. From the highest innermost shadow to the trendline - works 90 % Then you just clone the measurement to the breakdown point and project it. Very simple. Good luck! Top Absolute Correlation 4 hrs 1 EURUSD - USDCHF -99.1% 2 EURUSD - USDHUF -97.2% 3 EURUSD - EURHUF -94.6% 4 EURUSD - USDSEK -94.4% 5 EURUSD - USDSGD -94.1% 6 EURUSD - AUDUSD 94.0% 7 EURUSD - USDCNH -93.5% 8 EURUSD - US500 93.2% (S&P 500 Index) 9 EURUSD - AUDCAD 92.5% 10 EURUSD - GBPUSD 92.5%
Short
by ICFX
Euro anatomy:)Something to think about:) This what EURO index is telling me. Of course this thing is not EURUSD or EURGBP or EURJPY but it gives an idea what EURO is doing as standalone asset vs 3 major global currencies. The DM breakout of the last descending supply line is of some concern of course but it was not a good quality breakout (sidewise). Poor breakouts generate poor moves. Take into consideration previous failure on monthly. Bearish DM breakouts were valid on the other hands.
Short
by ICFX