The two most interesting macro chartsI find these two charts absolutely fascinating right now in the face of the geopolitical changes happening. This idea stems from a pretty simple question: Who stands to benefit the most should supply chains need to be retooled because our current providers fail?
If the economy in China implodes due to civil unrest or a structural change in CCP/PRC leadership, where will the globe look to in order to replace that gap? Latin America and/or Africa.
Yes, I know there's a shit load of assumptions, leaps in logic, etc. in this. I could write a novel on the mechanics of how this could theoretically play out. But just for a moment, think about it. We trade one cheap labor for another. We already have well-established supply chains in Latin America. We have geopolitical leverage over them and have been willing to push heavily to influence elections. Who knows.
Anyways, again, I thought the charts were just so interesting in the wake of a sea of other charts that suggest things are just getting warmed up.
The $ILF and $EZA are the most interesting macro charts to me right now.
EZA
South Africa is a fundamental buy #EZASouth Africa is one Emerging Market economy poised for success given the recent dollar weakness. Today's retail sales data, +2.6% YoY vs 0.4% last month proves sequential acceleration in the macro data. Moreover, the noise around Eskom and SAA has been going on for years now and is merely noise. The only cause for concern would be a further downgrading of the Sovereign Bonds, which doesn't seem to be on the near term horizon. Naspers makes up 25% of the ETF, and with it's holding of Tencent in China, it should perform well given recent macro inflections out East. Recent Chinese PMI and output upticks prove the current reflationary theme being played out here in Q1 2020. Technically, the symmetrical triangle looks poised for a breakout or breakdown. Given the fundamental picture, I believe there is great risk/reward to the upside.
Short Sell, Trade of the yearSouth Africa ETF, showing a triple top in the mid 70s on the all time high chart. The country is about to run out of clean water, a civil war is looming. Media refuses to cover it as well, so normies won't dump it till its too late. My largest position right now. Will sit in this until it dumps.
Shorts Remain open, Could be going to Goblin town soonUpdate from an older post. Still hiding in $EZA shorts as I think its the safest play right now.
(USD goes up, EZA down)
(EMM goes down, EZA goes down)
(Entire market goes down, EZA goes down)
(South Africa breaks into civil war or domestic problems, EZA goes down)