EURO - Price can reach resistance line and then start to fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price started to decline inside falling channel, where it fell to $1.0685 level and at once bounced up.
Then price reached resistance line, after which made correction and then made upward impulse.
Price exited from channel, formed first gap, and continued to grow inside wedge, where it firstly fell to support line.
After this, price rose almost to $1.0805 level, making a second gap and soon broke this level and continued to grow.
Also, price made third gap and now continues to move up, so, in my mind, Euro can reach resistance line.
Next, price can make impulse down to $1.0790, exiting from wedge and breaking support level.
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F-EUR
EURUSD Turning bullish short-term.The EURUSD pair closed last week above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 27 and this week is already using it as a Support to sustain further uptrend. Technically this could be the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg of the (blue) Channel Up that started on the week of June 24.
On the long-term, the pair has been trading within a fierce Triangle consolidation for exactly 1 year. The technical Support level has been the Support Zone that started back in January 2023 and the Resistance level, is the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) / 1M MA50 cluster.
Back to the Triangle's and Channel Up dynamics, last week's 1W MACD Bullish Cross formation and the bullish break-out of the 1W RSI above its Lower Highs trend-line, support being bullish on the short-term.
We will take a more modest/ cautious approach and will 'only' target 1.09500 (which is the crossroads of the Channel Up Higher Highs and Triangle Lower Highs trend-lines).
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Bullish bounce?EUR/CHF is has just bounced off the support level which is an overlap support and could potentially rise to our take profit.
Entry: 0.96731
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 0.96282
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.97406
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
French election shock: What will FX markets say? France is on the brink of a hung parliament, with the left-wing coalition capturing the most seats in a stunning upset over Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.
Obviously, the forex markets are closed on the weekend. So will be interesting to see the reaction to these shock election results in France on the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP when the market opens. Regardless of whether the market thinks this turn of events is good for France or the Eurozone as a whole, this might be trumped by its dislike of surprises.
The left-wing alliance, projected to win between 180 and 215 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, outpaced President Macron’s liberal bloc, which is forecast to secure 150-180 seats. The far-right National Rally, led by Le Pen, and its allies are anticipated to hold 120-150 seats.
Le Pen's National Rally led in the first round of voting last week and aimed to achieve a historic majority. However, strategic voting and alliances among left-wing parties have thwarted her efforts. Le Pen’s ties to Russia, including past opposition to EU sanctions, might have also harmed her campaign. Over the weekend, Le Pen had vowed to cancel permission for Kyiv to use French-supplied long-range weapons against targets in Russia.
Euro eyes French vote after pound's rally Euro eyes French vote after pound's rally
The British pound surged above $1.276 on Thursday, reaching its highest level in three weeks, as voters across the United Kingdon headed to the polls for parliamentary elections.
The Labour Party, currently leading in the polls, appears poised to unseat Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party. Some projections suggest Labour could secure a majority, marking their first general election victory since 2005.
But, perhaps the more interesting trade is in the euro in reaction to the second round of voting in France scheduled for over the weekend on 7 July.
In a strategic move to prevent the far-right from gaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the left-wing coalition known as the New Popular Front (NFP) has announced it will withdraw its candidates in 200 districts where they finished third, lending support to stronger candidates opposing the National Rally (RN).
Forecasts now indicate the RN and its allies are likely to win between 190 and 220 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority. Prior to these withdrawals, polls had estimated the RN could secure between 250 and 300 seats.
In the forex market, a bullish push could see the euro retesting the previous high around 1.0850, with a potential challenge to the 1.0900 psychological level switching the broader outlook to bullish. Conversely, a drop below the 200 SMA may find immediate support at 1.0775, with further support at the 50 and 100 SMA levels around 1.0733.
EUR/USD Maintains Bullish Momentum, Surpasses 1.0800As anticipated in our previous forecast, EUR/USD has continued its bullish momentum, climbing above the 1.0800 level.
Analyzing the chart, you can observe the areas where we have marked the closest supply zone, which we expect the price to reach before any potential decline.
Disappointing macroeconomic data releases from the US triggered a selloff of the US Dollar (USD) during American trading hours on Wednesday, aiding the EUR/USD's upward movement.
The ADP reported that private sector payrolls increased by 150,000 in June, missing analysts' estimate of 160,000. Additionally, the Department of Labor's weekly data showed 238,000 first-time applications for unemployment benefits, up from 233,000 the previous week.
Furthermore, the ISM Services PMI fell to 48.8 in June from 53.8 in May, indicating a contraction in the service sector's business activity. The Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index of the PMI survey also dropped to 46.1 and 56.3, respectively.
Looking ahead, tomorrow's release of USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to introduce further market volatility. Our forecast remains bullish until the price reaches the identified supply area.
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EURCAD Testing the 1D MA50. Sell opportunity.The EURCAD pair eventually formed the new Lower High on the 17-month Channel Down as presented on our last analysis (May 27, see chart below) and got rejected:
The rejection extended to as low as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and a short-term rebound has brought the price back to a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection.
Both previous Bearish Legs declined at least by -3.85%. We expect this 1D MA50 rejection to lead the price to at least Support 1, with our Target being 1.45000 (just above it).
On a side-note, check the high degree of symmetry between the 1D RSI sequences of the Channel's Legs.
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Could EUR/USD fall from here?Price is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistane that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could potentially reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0797
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 1.0840
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 1.0748
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop?EUR/CHF is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially reverse to the our take profit.
Entry: 0.97348
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.97755
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 0.96738
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURGBP intraday rallies continue to attract sellers.EURGBP - 24h expiry
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Price action looks to be forming a top.
Intraday signals are bearish.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Bespoke resistance is located at 0.8485.
We look to Sell at 0.8485 (stop at 0.8500)
Our profit targets will be 0.8445 and 0.8425
Resistance: 0.8485 / 0.8500 / 0.8515
Support: 0.8455 / 0.8440 / 0.8425
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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EUR/USD Gains Amid Market Risk Flows: Short-Term Long PositionThe EUR/USD pair is trading in positive territory, slightly above 1.0750, following modest gains on Tuesday. While the technical indicators suggest a buildup of bullish momentum, the pair may face resistance in clearing the 1.0790-1.0800 range unless supported by significant fundamental factors.
As Wednesday's session began, risk appetite dominated the markets, making it challenging for the US Dollar (USD) to attract demand. The upcoming USD Unemployment Claims and ISM Services PMI forecasts suggest a bearish outlook for the USD, prompting traders to favor the EUR.
Our primary strategy is to wait for the price to reach a supply area before considering a potential short position. Given that the price rose from a demand area yesterday, our current focus is on a short-term long position, targeting the 1.0850 level.
Later in the day, the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data from the US will be closely watched for new market insights.
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Euro can rebound from resistance level to 1.0670 support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. By observing the chart, we can see that the price started to grow inside the upward channel, where it at once rebounded from the resistance line to the 1.0670 support level, after which it bounced and continued to grow. In a short time, the price rose to the 1.0800 resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone and soon broke this level and later reached the resistance line of the channel. After this, the Euro rebounded from this line and exited from the channel, starting to trades inside range. Inside the range, the price declined to the seller zone and even made a fake breakout of the 1.0800 resistance level, after which quickly rose to the top part of the range, turned around, and then made a strong downward impulse. Euro exited from the range, broke the 1.0800 level, and even formed the first gap, after which the price little declined and then bounced up to the resistance line. After this movement, the EUR started to decline and in a short time fell to the 1.0670 support level, which coincided with the buyer zone and some time tired to grow, but only third try it make an upward impulse and rose higher than the resistance line. At the moment, the price continues to move up, so, in my opinion, the Euro can reach a resistance level and then start to decline to the 1.0670 support level. For this case, I set my TP at this level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURO - Price can exit from triangle and reach resistance levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago price declined from resistance area, after which it made upward impulse to $1.0895 points.
Price broke $1.0790 level and started to trades in flat, where it some time traded until it reached top part.
After this, Euro made downward impulse, thereby exiting from flat, but then price at once entered to triangle pattern.
In triangle pattern, price broke $1.0790 level and fell to support level, which coincided with support area.
Euro some time traded near this level and recently it reached resistance line of triangle, where continues to trades near now.
In my mind, Euro can decline to support level and then bounce up to $1.0790 level, exiting from triangle.
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Sell EUR/USD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0732, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0699
2nd Support – 1.0675
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0760. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
EUR/USD Rebounds in Sideways Area, Concludes Flat Trading WeekAs forecasted, the EUR/USD pair rebounded within its sideways range on Friday, wrapping up a week of flat trading. Traders found little reason to push the pair meaningfully in either direction. The week saw German import prices and labor figures broadly missing expectations, while the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation printed at forecast without sparking significant movement.
German Unemployment Change data showed a higher-than-expected increase, with 19,000 more consumers added to unemployment figures in June, exceeding the forecast of 15,000 but still below the previous month's 25,000. The German Unemployment Rate also edged higher to 6.0%, compared to the forecasted hold at 5.9%.
Our technical analysis remains bullish as long as the price stays within the upper side of the sideways rectangle. Currently, the price has rebounded from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the lowest major swing and has formed a triple bottom pattern. This suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend.
We will continue to monitor the economic conditions to determine future moves once the price approaches the upper boundary of the sideways range. For now, the technical indicators support a bullish outlook, anticipating further gains within the current trading range.
Initial Idea
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EUR/USD Slips as Investors Await US Housing DataThe EUR/USD pair failed to sustain Monday's gains, closing in negative territory on Tuesday. Currently, the pair is struggling to regain traction, trading around 1.0690 in the European session on Wednesday. The price appears to be rebounding from a demand area near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous swing lower. Additionally, a divergence on the H1 timeframe suggests a potential bullish impulse.
According to the COT report, institutional investors are increasingly shifting their funds to the USD side. This movement supports a potential bullish scenario in the short term, but we anticipate a bearish scenario to follow in the future.
With no significant macroeconomic data releases, investors are cautious about taking large positions. Later today, the US economic docket will feature New Home Sales data for May, but it is unlikely to significantly impact the market.
EURUSD Is it a sell after the French far-right election win?Highly important fundamentals yesterday for EUR as the first round of elections in France ended with a significant win of the far-right wing party. Even though that's not economic news, the election results of the 2nd biggest E.U. economy, certainly have the weight to affect the largest forex pair in the world.
Mainstream economists have historically shown their preference when more stable, center parties are in governance, and certainly would like to avoid the instability that comes with a far-right party and its policies. That alone is a big factor that would call for (at least) a short-term sell on this pair.
That fundamental approach happens this time to come in complete agreement with the technical one. The pair is still forming the new Bearish Leg of the 6-month Channel Down and as we explained on our June 04 analysis (see chart below), our conservative Target is still 1.06040:
On top of that, today's High hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 2 weeks. As you can see, the symmetry between the Channel's 3 Bearish Legs (including the current one) is high and it appears that the pair has fulfilled the +1.12% counter-trend bounce that has happened on all Legs after an initial -2.30% decline. The previous one went as high as +1.50% (April 09), so there is still some small room for rejection.
Technically the new Lower Low can be as low as 1.0500 (-4.00%) but it is advisable to always book profits when the 1D RSI touches the 30.00 oversold barrier.
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Brace for NFP, ECB Forum, and two major elections This week is set to be a pivotal one for global markets, with significant economic and political events on both sides of the Atlantic.
In the United States, the spotlight will be on nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week, with the economy expected to have added 180,000 jobs in June. This would mark a slowdown from the 272,000 jobs added in May and signal a cooling of the labor market.
Across the Atlantic, political developments in France and the United Kingdom are likely to dominate market movements.
France's Parliamentary Elections:
France held the first round of its parliamentary elections on Sunday. The far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, has surged to first place, securing 33.5% of votes according to recent polls. The second round of voting is scheduled for July 7.
The dissolution of the National Assembly by President Emmanuel Macron earlier this month has already caused volatility in French stocks. However, some see this as a buying opportunity. Eden Bradfield of BlackBull Research commented, "Our preference list includes Kering, LVMH, Richemont, Brunello, and Hermes at the right price."
Adding to the busy week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will host its annual forum in Sintra from Monday to Wednesday. The event will gather central bank governors, including Jerome Powell of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Roberto Campos Neto of the Brazilian Central Bank, Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England, and Christine Lagarde of the ECB.
On the economic front, Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for the Eurozone and Germany are due this week. These reports are anticipated to show a slight easing in inflation, which will be closely monitored by investors and policymakers alike.
UK General Elections:
In the United Kingdom, a major political shift is anticipated on July 4. Polls suggest a landslide victory for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and a major defeat for Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, who have been in power for 14 years.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
EURUSD 30/6/24This week on the euro, we have four potential ideas mainly based on the principle that we are running bearish across most time frames, including the higher time frames.
Firstly, we have almost no unmitigated price action on the 4-hour time frame. We've built extensively above and below the price action created last week, leading me to believe this is an area of consolidation before the next expansive or pullback move is formed. My personal preference is to take the liquidity marked above by the yellow bar, run the internal high, and reach into the extreme supply and the extreme order block at the upper end of this range. This is using the 4-hour high highlighted as major liquidity within our range. This would allow us to follow long positions through the liquidity breakout within the current range and also follow shorts from the preferred premium area within the higher time frame range.
In the middle of last week, we liquidated the daily low, which was our target on a higher time frame. Liquidating this low and pulling back suggests that there may be a deeper push into the range before we sell off again.
Of course, we have our non-preferred moves highlighted as well. This includes the price selling off immediately, taking out the low we have marked as liquidity, falling, and creating a new range overall. Additionally, we could sell away from the upper end of the range we have marked, which would give us a non-preferable sell move but still completely valid to follow for the bearish trend.
EURGBP / Critical Volume Signals and Key Price LevelsTechnical Analysis: EUR/GBP (4H Chart)
Current Price Action:
The EUR/GBP pair is trading around 0.84722, near the pivot line at 0.84915.
Key Observations:
1. Primary Support and Resistance Levels:
Primary Support Line (Monthly): 0.83977
Primary Support Line (Yearly): 0.83393
Resistance Line: 0.85728
2. Supply Zone:
- A sensitive decision area characterized by high volatility is identified around 0.85204 to 0.85394.
3. Support and Resistance Areas:
Secondary Support Area: Around 0.84265
Resistance Area: Around 0.84915 to 0.85204
Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
Breakout Above Pivot Line: If the price can break and sustain above the pivot line at 0.84915, it could aim for the resistance area around 0.85204. A further breakout from this level could see the price move towards the supply zone and potentially higher towards the resistance line at 0.85728.
Support from Rising Trend Line : The ascending trend line providing support suggests continued bullish momentum if it holds, potentially pushing the price higher.
Bearish Scenario:
Failure at Pivot Line: If the price fails to break above the pivot line at 0.84915, it could retreat towards the secondary support area around 0.84265.
Downside Targets: Sustained bearish pressure could push the price further down to the primary support lines at 0.83977 and 0.83393.
Today's Expected Trading Range:
- The anticipated trading range for today is between the support level at 0.84265 and the resistance level at 0.85204.
Pivot Line: 0.84915
Resistance Levels: 0.85204, 0.85394, 0.85728
Support Levels: 0.84655, 0.84576, 0.84265
Summary:
- The EUR/GBP pair is currently at a critical juncture near the pivot line. A breakout above this level could signal a bullish continuation towards higher resistance levels, while failure to hold this level could see a decline towards key support areas. The next week's direction will be heavily influenced by the price action around the pivot line and the supply zone.
Direction for the Next Week:
Bullish Direction: Likely if the price breaks and sustains above 0.84915 and moves past 0.85204, targeting 0.85728.
Bearish Direction: Possible if the price fails to break the pivot line and drops below the secondary support area at 0.84265, targeting 0.83977 and potentially lower to 0.83393.
------ There is also...
Analysis Based on Volume Order Book (Expo) for EUR/GBP (4H Chart)
The Volume Order Book (Expo) on the EUR/GBP 4H chart provides insights into the liquidity and potential price movement based on the distribution of orders. Here's a detailed analysis:
Key Observations:
2.High Volume at 0.84915:
There is a significant volume of 11.458M at the price level of 0.84915, which acts as a strong pivot point. This indicates that a lot of trading activity and interest is concentrated at this level.
2.Volume Clusters:
Above Current Price:
There are notable volumes at 0.85204 (5.866M), 0.85394 (4.434M), and 0.85728 (5.857M). These levels act as resistance where selling pressure might be strong.
Below Current Price:
There are significant volumes at 0.84655 (3.426M), 0.84576 (2.918M), and 0.84265 (2.647M). These levels act as support where buying interest is likely to be strong.
Directional Bias:
Bullish Indicators:
Pivot Line Strength: The large volume at 0.84915 suggests that if the price can break and sustain above this level, it may indicate strong bullish momentum.
Support Levels: The accumulation of buy orders below the current price indicates strong support around 0.84655 and 0.84265, which can provide a solid base for upward movement.
Bearish Indicators:
Resistance Levels: The substantial sell orders above the current price at 0.85204 and 0.85728 suggest that the price may face significant resistance, potentially limiting the upside.