EURJPY | MarketoutlookThe policy divergence between the US Fed and SNB supports the pair at lower levels.
Jobless claims dropped to 227,000 for the week ending October 19, down from 242,000 the week before, suggesting some stability in the labor market. The four-week moving average rose by 6,750, reaching 231,000, which indicates that jobless claims are still showing fluctuations despite the recent decline.
The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 47.8 in October, up from 47.3 in September. However, this still shows that manufacturing activity is contracting for the fourth month in a row. On the other hand, the Flash Services PMI rose to 51.5, indicating modest growth in the services sector, which is important since it makes up a large part of the U.S. economy.
F-EUR
The euro has rebounded and is awaiting further price triggers
Bank of France governor Villeroy de Galhau emphasized that the eurozone economy is in a precarious state, with the ECB continuing to impose high interest rates that further restrict economic activity. Additionally, Finland's central bank governor, Oli Rehn, stated that the prospects for economic growth have deteriorated in recent months, which is likely to elevate disinflationary pressures.
EURUSD rebounded to 1.0820 after testing the support at 1.0780. The price breached the descending channel’s upper bound and EMA21, awaiting an upward trigger for further upside. If EURUSD sustains its uptrend and surpasses EMA78, the price may gain upward momentum to 1.0940. Conversely, if EURUSD re-enters within the channel and breaks 1.0780, the price could fall further to the support at 1.0670.
Sell EUR/CAD Bearish ChannelThe EUR/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.4908, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.4866
2nd Support – 1.4834
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.4940. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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Overlap resistance ahead?EUR/NZD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.8061
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 1.81364
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.7949
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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EURUSD on the 1 year Support!EURUSD hit today the Rising Support trend line that is in effect for 1 full year.
The 1day RSI is vastly oversold, which was the case both on the April 16th 2024 and October 3rd 2023 contacts with the Rising Support.
The last bottom rebounded to the 0.618 Fib before pulling back again.
This is a standard low risk bullish signal. Buy and target 1.10250 (Fib 0.618).
Previous chart:
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EUR/USD Extends Decline Amid USD Strength and Weak Eurozone DataThe EUR/USD pair continues its downward trajectory, trading near fresh multi-week lows around the 1.0769 mark during Wednesday’s mid-European session. This decline reflects the ongoing strength of the US Dollar, fueled by a gloomy market sentiment and growing concerns surrounding the upcoming US Presidential election. Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure due to lackluster local macroeconomic indicators, suggesting that the Eurozone's economic challenges persist into the final quarter of the year.
Factors Driving the EUR/USD Decline
1. US Dollar Strength
The US Dollar remains dominant, driven by risk aversion as investors seek safe-haven assets amidst increasing political uncertainty in the US. The potential impact of the presidential election has added to market jitters, with investors favoring the Greenback for its perceived stability.
Additionally, strong US economic data has reinforced the USD's bullish sentiment, suggesting that the US economy continues to outperform its European counterpart. This divergence adds further pressure on the Euro and pushes the EUR/USD lower.
2. Weak Eurozone Macro Data
The Euro struggles to gain traction, weighed down by recent disappointing economic figures from the Eurozone. The latest data indicates ongoing challenges in manufacturing and consumer sentiment, suggesting that the region's economic recovery may be faltering.
Persistent economic sluggishness in major Eurozone economies, like Germany and France, has dampened confidence in the Euro, as investors remain cautious about the currency's short-term prospects.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Approaches Key Demand Zone
As anticipated in our previous forecast, the EUR/USD has bypassed an intermediate demand zone and is now approaching a more robust support area at the lower level. Here are the key factors at play:
Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:
According to the latest COT report, retail traders remain heavily bearish on the Euro, while institutional investors (often referred to as “smart money”) have begun to move in the opposite direction, accumulating long positions. This shift in positioning hints at a potential turnaround as the EUR/USD nears significant demand levels.
DXY Overbought Condition:
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, is currently in overbought territory. This condition suggests that the USD rally could be losing steam, potentially paving the way for a EUR/USD rebound.
The technical overextension of the DXY aligns with the prospect of a retracement, providing additional support for the Euro at the upcoming demand area.
Buy Limit Setup:
With the EUR/USD nearing a critical demand zone, we are considering placing a buy limit order. This approach aims to capitalize on a potential reversal at the lower demand area, which is supported by both technical indicators and the shifting COT report dynamics.
Trading Strategy: Buy Limit on Demand Area
Given the current conditions, a buy limit order near the next demand area presents a favorable risk-reward setup. Here’s how we’re approaching this potential trade:
Entry: Set a buy limit order just above the upcoming demand zone, targeting a potential rebound in the EUR/USD pair.
Stop Loss: Place a tight stop loss below the demand area to manage risk in case of a continued slide.
Target: Aim for a near-term bounce back toward resistance levels, aligning with potential DXY weakness and institutional positioning.
Final Thoughts: Cautious Optimism for a EUR/USD Rebound
While the EUR/USD remains under pressure due to the prevailing USD strength and weak Eurozone data, technical factors and shifting market positioning suggest a potential short-term reversal. As the pair approaches a critical demand zone, a carefully placed buy limit order could offer a promising entry opportunity.
With political uncertainty in the US and a potentially overbought USD, traders should monitor upcoming data releases and market sentiment closely, as these factors could influence the timing and magnitude of a possible EUR/USD bounce. As always, risk management is crucial, especially in a volatile environment shaped by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.
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Potential bullish reversal?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0775
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0719
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.0871
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish reversal?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.0775
1st Support: 1.0720
1st Resistance: 1.0868
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD: On the 1 year HL support. Rebound expected.EURUSD turned oversold oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 28.128, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 71.753) as the price even crossed under the 0.618 Fibonacci level and is approaching the HL Zone, the lower level of which started 1 year ago (on the October 3rd 2023 low). The 1D RSI is oversold for the 3rd time since then, which is alone a huge bullish signal. We expect at least a short term rebound to test the 1D MA50 (TP = 1.09800).
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EURUSD Is Trading Under The Pressure Of A Strong DollarHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.08600 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.08600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURGBP Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURGBP for a selling opportunity around 0.83500 zone, EURGBP is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.83500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0849
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0869
why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.0810
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?EUR/CAD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.49237
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 1.4879
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that us slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 1.5007
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish bounce?EUR/CAD is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance level.
Pivot: 1.49267
1st Support: 1.48808
1st Resistance: 1.50093
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Euro will make move down and then rebound up from wedgeHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price declined to mirror line and then started to grow. In a short time, the price broke the 1.1000 level, made a correction to the resistance area, and then continued to move up to the seller zone. When it reached this area, the price soon turned around and dropped to the mirror line. Euro some time traded near this line and then fell to the 1.1000 level, breaking the mirror line. Also then, the price started to trades inside the wedge, where it first rose between the mirror line to the seller zone again. When the Euro reached this area, it turned around and made a downward impulse, thereby breaking 1.1175 and 1.1000 levels, after which made retest and continued to fall to the support line of the wedge. At the moment, the price trades very close to the resistance line of the wedge, so, for this case, I think that the Euro can little decline and then rebound up, thereby exiting from the wedge. For this case, I set my TP at 1.095 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD Bearish Bias with Key Resistance at 1.0915EURUSD
The price is currently below the resistance zone near 1.0915, which has acted as a pivot in recent movements. The pair remains in a downtrend, with previous highs indicating a double-top formation.
If the price fails to break above 1.0915, the downtrend is likely to continue, with potential support around 1.0680.
The demand zone is around 1.0680 and the ascending trendline may provide strong support, potentially leading to a rebound.
Direction:
Bearish: As long as the price remains below 1.0915, the direction favors a continuation towards lower support levels.
Bullish: A break above 1.0915 and sustained stability could signal a shift to bullish momentum, but this remains less likely in the current trend.
For now, the bias remains bearish, targeting the demand zone around 1.0680.
Key levels:
Pivot line: 1.0885
Support Lines: 1.0793, 1.0680, 1.0616
Resistance Lines: 1.0995, 1.1082, 1.1141
Trend Outlook:
Bearish while under 1.0915
Bullish By stability above 1.0915
EURUSD expected to rebound on an oversold 1D RSI.The EURUSD pair made a straight hit on our 1.08350 Target (September 23 idea, see chart below) following the 1.12000 Double Top rejection:
Right now the price sits below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having failed to recover it in the past 2 days. This is however the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the last Low, which is where the February 14 2024 correction reversed.
At the same time, the 1D RSI turned oversold last Thursday, which is an even bigger bullish indication. For the past 2 years (since September 27 2022), every time the RSI got oversold (below 30.00), it was a very strong buy signal as the price reversed.
On the February 14 Low it reversed to the 0.618 Fib (blue), so currently our minimum target on this buy opportunity is 1.10550.
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EURUSD - Macro View...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 EURUSD has been overall bullish, trading inside the flat rising channel in blue.
Moreover, it is approaching a demand zone marked in green.
🏹 The highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the demand zone and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/CAD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.50030
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.50776
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.49549
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish reversal?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot point which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 1.0896
1st Support: 1.0834
1st Resistance: 1.0955
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR/USD Eyeing Key Resistance Zones for BreakoutEUR/USD has been on a steady upward trajectory, supported by a clear trendline that has provided consistent buying interest. The current structure indicates a potential bullish continuation after a brief consolidation or pullback.
The pair is now targeting key resistance levels at 1.09012 and 1.09365. The first challenge for the bulls is breaking through 1.09012, a strong resistance that has been tested previously. A successful breach of this level could lead to a rapid move towards the major resistance at 1.09365.
The chart suggests that any retracement towards the trendline or the dashed horizontal support will likely attract more buyers, offering a high-probability setup for further upside. Should this retracement occur, buyers might seek opportunities near 1.08552 before attempting another push higher.
If the price breaks above 1.09365, we could see a continuation of the broader bullish trend, potentially heading towards 1.1000 or higher. However, failure to maintain the upward momentum around these key resistance levels could lead to a deeper correction.
We should watch for price action around 1.09012 for confirmation of a breakout, while keeping an eye on the trendline as a guide for support.