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F-XAU

Gold Futures Poised for Gains as Uptrend Stabilizes Above 2428Gold Futures Rise as Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive Technical Analysis: Gold Current Outlook: Stabilization above 2428 means an uptrend toward 2450 and 2466 due to the high bullish volume with a correction till 2428 Bullish Scenario: The price will touch 2450, and then should break 2450 to be a bullish trend till 2466, Bearish Scenario: Stabilization below 2450 could support a decline to 2428 Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 2444 - Resistance Levels: 2454, 2466, 2475 - Support Levels: 2428, 2420, 2397 Today's Expected Trading Range is between 2428 and 2466 Tendency: Bullish trend above 2428
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
HelenP. I Gold will reach trend line and then start to declineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. A not long time ago price almost reached a resistance level, after which it turned around and dropped lower than the 2380 support level, which coincided with the support zone. After this movement, Gold turned around and soon rose higher than the 2380 level, breaking it one more time. Next, the price some time traded near this level and later made a strong impulse up, thereby breaking the 2435 level, which coincided with the resistance zone. After this movement, Gold some time traded near, and next it rebounded up to the trend line, after which started to decline. Gold quickly fell lower than the 2435 level, breaking one more time it, and dropped to the support zone. Then price bounced up from this area and some time later it rebounded up from the support level and rose to the trend line, which at the moment continues to trades near. For this case, I expect that XAUUSD will rebound from the trend line and start to decline to almost a support level. That's why I set my goal at 2390 points, which is located near the support level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FirstNameHelen
6
Sector Rotation in Anticipation of Rate CutsMarkets have rebounded sharply after last week's fear-driven decline. Despite this, rate cuts are still anticipated in the upcoming FOMC meetings. Changes in monetary policy often benefit some sectors over others, providing investors a chance to adjust their portfolio allocations accordingly. This paper delves into a comparative analysis of sectors around monetary policy pivots to highlight how a spread between S&P Financials Select Sector and S&P Utilities Select Sector stands to benefit in the coming months. It also describes a hypothetical trade setup using CME E-Mini S&P Select Sector futures which can be used to express the view in a margin-efficient manner. RATE CUTS WILL HURT FINANCIAL FIRMS Financial firms benefit significantly from higher rates, as these drive net interest margin (NIM) expansion, boosting their bottom line. However, when rates start to decrease, this positive impact reverses. The Financials Select Sector ETF (XLF) is comprised of 25% banks, 31% financial services firms, and 16.6% insurance firms. All these firms have benefited from higher rates, albeit the strongest impact may be limited to banks and insurance firms whose overall bottom line is significantly impacted by expanding NIM. In the last three monetary policy pivots, XLF has declined by an average of 5.6% over the following six months. Conversely, at the start of rate hikes, the ETF has typically risen by an average of 3.7% in the subsequent six months. While the most recent pivot in 2019 saw an increase in XLF, the overall average trend suggests a decline. The trend is visible even when examining the relative performance of XLF and SPX. Following rate cuts, the spread declined by an average of 2.8% while during rate increases, it declined by just 1.1%. There is another headwind facing the XLF ETF, particularly banks – rising credit delinquencies. Credit card delinquencies are especially concerning as they stood at the highest level in 13 years as of Q1 2024. Overall delinquencies are also rising and near the highest level since 2021. Updated data from the New York Fed has shown that conditions remained stressed in Q2 with total delinquencies at 3.2%. Particularly concerning were severe (>90 days delinquent) credit card delinquencies at a staggering 10.93%. Consumers are increasingly relying on unsustainable credit card debt to cover expenses. As delinquencies remain elevated, issuing banks must increase loan loss provisions which impacts earnings directly. Source: New York Fed As credit card usage becomes unsustainable, another class of companies in XLF – payment processors - will also be hurt. The largest payment processors (Visa, Mastercard, and Amex) represent nearly 15% of the XLF index. RATE CUTS WILL BENEFIT UTILITY FIRMS Unlike financial firms, utility companies have struggled in a high-rate environment. As their huge capital expenditure is often fueled by debt, higher rates result in narrower profits. As rates decline, debt payments decrease, leading to expanded profit margins for utility firms. Historically, the ETF has shown a significant average increase after rate hikes and a smaller increase after rate cuts. This behavior might be due to investors anticipating a weakening economy following rate cuts, which would favor utility firms. However, the index tends to correct later once rates remain elevated for some time. The impact is close to even when comparing the relative performance against the broader S&P 500 with both periods resulting in a ~6% increase in the spread. Utility firms are also likely to outperform in case of a US recession. Although some of the concerning economic data has normalized over the past week, the risk of a recession in the US persists. As utility firms provide essential services, their cash flows are relatively stable even during recessions. While consumers may cut down on discretionary spending, spending on essential services remains unaffected. Mint Finance previously covered these factors in a separate paper. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP A pivot in Fed Policy is expected in the upcoming FOMC meetings with the CME FedWatch tool signaling 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 itself. Rate cuts will impact different sectors differently. While utility firms stand to benefit from lower rates, financial firms may see lower profits. Source: CME FedWatch The spread between CME E-Mini Utilities Select Sector Futures (XAU) and CME E-Mini Financial Select Sector Futures (XAF) has been rising since March as it has favored XAU. The spread responded strongly to a shift in rate cut sentiment as well as the recession signal at the start of the month. The recent correction over the past week offers an improved entry point into the spread. A hypothetical trade setup using XAU futures expiring in September (XAUU2024) and XAF futures expiring in September (XAFU2024) is described below. CME offers margin offset totaling 60% for this spread reducing the capital requirement to USD 3,740. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:XAU1!Long
by mintdotfinance
BUY TRADE ON XAUUSDPotential Trade Setup on XAUUSD The price broke out of a strong resistance zone and a long-used Trendline but yet to retest the broken structure. The price is developing, and I am waiting for a retest of the previously broken resistance and used as support before I look for a LONG trade. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Trade Responsibly! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Adefxc
Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) wedge BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Wedge pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 2427, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2403 2nd Support – 2388 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2440. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
6
Could Gold reverse from here?The price is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 61.8% Fibonacci support. Pivot: 2,432.17 1st Support: 2,402.82 1st Resistance: 2,451.17 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ICmarkets
1
GOLD at a Tipping Point: Rally or Reversal?Comprehensive Analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar) Across the 1-hour, 15-minute, and 4-hour charts, the current market structure of Gold against the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) reveals a critical juncture, with several key technical patterns and liquidity zones influencing potential price movements. --- 1. Overall Market Structure: Large Ascending Channel (4-Hour Chart) - Channel Formation: The price has been trending within a **large Ascending Channel** since early May, with well-defined higher highs and higher lows. This channel serves as the primary structure guiding the market’s long-term movement. - Upper and Lower Boundaries: The upper boundary near 2474.774 (Daily LQZ) and the lower boundary near 2355.819 (Daily LQZ) are critical levels. The price is currently closer to the channel's upper half, indicating potential room for further upside but also a heightened risk of reversal. 2. Intermediate Market Structure: Recent Ascending Channel Breakdown (1-Hour & 4-Hour Charts) - Smaller Ascending Channel: On the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, a smaller Ascending Channel had formed recently, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. However, this channel experienced a breakdown, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. - Retest and Flag Formation: Following the breakdown, the price formed a flag pattern. This typically signals consolidation before continuation in the direction of the previous trend (which was down, post-breakdown). The resolution of this flag is crucial for the next significant move. --- 3. Liquidity Zones (LQZs): Key Decision Points - 1-Hour LQZ at 2441.637: A significant resistance level that the price is currently hovering near. Its strength has been tested, and it could either cap the current move or be breached if buying pressure increases. - 4-Hour LQZ at 2458.954: Positioned slightly above the current price, this is another critical resistance zone, closely aligned with the broader channel's upper resistance area. - Daily LQZ at 2474.774: This is a major resistance level that coincides with the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel. If reached, it could signal an important inflection point. - Support at 2402.417 (1HR) and 2355.819 (Daily): These are key levels of support that could come into play if the price fails to break higher and instead moves downward. --- 4. Volume Analysis: Gauging Momentum** - Recent Volume Trends: Across the charts, volume has shown signs of moderation, particularly during the formation of the flag pattern. This suggests a potential lack of conviction among market participants, which could lead to a volatile breakout or breakdown. - Volume at Key Levels: It will be essential to monitor volume closely at critical LQZs and the flag pattern boundaries. A breakout with strong volume could confirm the direction, while a low-volume move might indicate a false breakout or temporary move. --- 5. Mass Psychology and Market Sentiment - Herd Behavior: The market is at a psychological tipping point. If a breakout from the flag pattern occurs, it could trigger a strong collective buying response, driving the price higher toward the 4HR and Daily LQZs. Conversely, a failure could lead to a rapid sell-off as participants rush to exit. - Overextension and Exhaustion: The proximity to significant resistance levels increases the risk of overextension. If the price approaches the Daily LQZ at 2474.774, traders should be cautious of a potential reversal due to exhaustion of the bullish trend. --- 6. Potential Scenarios and Strategic Considerations - Bullish Scenario: - Breakout Above Flag: A confirmed breakout above the flag pattern, supported by strong volume, could push the price towards the 4HR LQZ (2458.954) and potentially the Daily LQZ (2474.774). - Continuation Within the Larger Channel: If the price clears the 4HR LQZ, it could target the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel, aligning with the Daily LQZ at 2474.774. - Bearish Scenario:** - Breakdown from Flag: A breakdown from the flag, especially with increasing volume, could signal a short-term bearish move, targeting support levels at 2402.417 (1HR LQZ) and 2355.819 (Daily LQZ). - Rejection at 1HR LQZ (2441.637): If the price fails to break the 1HR LQZ convincingly, it could lead to a retest of lower support levels, indicating a potential retracement within the larger channel. - Neutral/Baseline Strategy: - Wait for Confirmation: Traders might consider waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown from the flag pattern and observe how the price reacts at the nearest LQZs. This approach reduces the risk of being caught in a false move. - Risk Management: Stops should be placed strategically around the flag pattern’s boundaries or key LQZs to protect against adverse moves. --- Conclusion: The XAU/USD pair is currently at a crucial inflection point. The broader market structure, combined with recent developments in the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, suggests that the next significant move could set the tone for the short to medium term. Close attention should be paid to the flag pattern, volume behavior, and the reaction at key liquidity zones, particularly the 1HR and 4HR LQZs. A breakout could lead to a test of the upper boundaries of the larger channel, while a breakdown might see the price revisiting lower support levels within the channel. This is a classic setup where waiting for confirmation before entering a position could offer a strategic advantage, allowing for more informed and controlled trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Adlercon333
1
Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) Channel BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2394, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2470 2nd Support – 2500 Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2362. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards. Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
49
XAUUSD 11/8/24Following up on gold this week, we have an area of demand relatively close to the current price action, near where it ended last week. We believe this area could be tested, and if so, we’ll look for either a decisive push back up or a failure. We are strongly bullish on gold and believe it is likely to run higher, aligning with the institutional liquidity moving in the form of trendline liquidity. We could see a sell-off near the high to encourage sellers to place their stops above it. Overall, we expect the high to be breached. If we don’t reach this high and instead pull back lower, we will look for buying opportunities near the lower end of the overall range, just below the low established on Thursday, the 25th. This level holds significant liquidity, so it could be targeted. Our main focus is for the price to shift into the bullish narrative that we recognize on the higher time frame. We’re simply waiting for the price to show us what it wants to do. Trade your plan, follow your risk management, and always trade based on what price shows you, not on what you want it to do.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by rosshayes
GOLD 4H / Bullish Volume...Gold Futures Rise as Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive Technical Analysis: Gold Current Outlook: Stabilization above 2428 means an uptrend toward 2450 due to the high bullish volume Bullish Scenario: Stability above 2428 could extend the bullish trend towards 2441 and breaking of 2442 will get 2450 and 2466 Bearish Scenario: Stabilization below 2420 could support a decline to 2408 and should break 2397 Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 2428 - Resistance Levels: 2441, 2450, 2466 - Support Levels: 2420, 2408, 2379 Today's Expected Trading Range is between 2420 and 2466 Tendency: Bullish trend above 2428 - 2420 previous idea:
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
GOLD - Price can decline to support line of triangleHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Some days ago price bounced from $2320 level and then entered to wedge, where it at once fell lower than support level. After this, price in a short time rose higher than $2320 level, breaking it again, but soon fell back to support line of wedge. Next, XAU made strong upward impulse to resistance line, breaking $2320 and $2430 levels, after which turned around. Gold broke $2430 level and later entered to triangle, where it rose higher resistance level again. But a not long time ago price fell back to support line, after which it bounced up and now trades close resistance line. In my mind, price can reach and at once bounce down from resistance area to $2375 support line of triangle. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WalterMoon
4
HelenP. I Gold will correct to trend line and then rebound upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Some days ago price rose until to the support level, which coincided with the support zone and even broke this level, but soon turned around and dropped to the trend line. Next, Gold rebounded from the trend line and quickly rose back to the 2355 level, broke it, and started to trades inside consolidation. In the range, the price some time traded near the 2355 level and then made a strong impulse up to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone and even entered to this zone. Inside the resistance area, Gold reached the top part of the consolidation and even made a fake breakout, after which dropped to the trend line, which coincided with the support level, thereby breaking the 2455 resistance level. After this movement, XAU repeated this movement to the resistance area again, after which fell back to the trend line. Recently it turned around and started to grow, so, I expect that XAUUSD will correct almost to the trend line and then continue to grow to the 2455 resistance level. For this reason, resistance level it's my goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FirstNameHelen
2
GOLD 4H / Gold Futures Rise Amid Positive Long-Term OutlookGold Futures Rise as Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive Technical Analysis: Gold Current Outlook: It tries to reach 2420, and the price will consolidate between 2397 and 2420, Bullish Scenario: Stability above 2397 could extend the bullish trend towards 2420 and breaking of 2420 will get 2428 and 2466 Bearish Scenario: Stabilization below 2420 could support a decline to 2408 and should break 2397 to be downward till 2387. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 2408 - Resistance Levels: 2420, 2428, 2450 - Support Levels: 2397, 2387, 2378 Today's Expected Trading Range is between 2397 and 2450 Tendency: Bullish trend Volume with some correction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi