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Trump, Fed Speculation Drive Gold to New Heights Trump, Fed Speculation Drive Gold to New Heights Gold price cleared the May 20 high of $2450 on Tuesday, as expectations intensify that the U.S. Federal Reserve will commence an easing cycle in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed the Economic Club of Washington this week, noting the economy's solid performance and signaling potential rate cuts once inflation trends towards the 2% target. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates near-certain odds of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, with many forecasting a total of 50 basis points in cuts through 2024. But one has to question the accuracy of these optimistic predictions. The next FOMC meeting is in 14 days. Adding to the upward momentum on gold is the potential election of former President Donald Trump in November. Trump's proposed policies, including tariff hikes and tax cuts, are anticipated to increase the U.S. budget deficit and spur inflationary pressures. Bullish momentum in gold appears intact, supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart. Although it is trending higher and approaching typical overbought conditions.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
GOLD / Approaching All-Time Highs...Gold Technical Analysis Based on the provided chart, the following analysis can be made: Current Outlook: - The price is currently approaching the all-time high (ATH) of 2450 and is consolidating within a narrow range. - There is a breakout zone that the price is approaching, which could signal further upward momentum if breached. Bullish Scenario: - If the price stabilizes above 2450, it is expected to continue its bullish trend. - The next target after a breakout above 2450 would be 2466. - Stability above this level would indicate a continuation towards even higher resistance levels. Bearish Scenario: - If the price fails to break and stabilize above 2450, it may consolidate or pull back. - Immediate support levels to watch are 2440 and 2428. - A break below 2428 could indicate a further decline, targeting support at 2398. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 2440 - Resistance Levels: 2450, 2466, 2475 - Support Levels: 2428, 2420, 2398 Technical Indicators: - The indicator on the chart shows a combination of short-term and long-term moving averages, indicating that the price is currently in a strong uptrend as it approaches the ATH. - The bands are widening, suggesting increasing volatility and potential for significant price movement. Today's Expected Range: - The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 2428 and the resistance at 2466, with a general bullish tendency given the current momentum. Summary: Gold is currently in a bullish trend, approaching its all-time high. The key levels to watch are 2450 for potential breakout and continuation of the bullish trend, and 2428 for potential support in case of a pullback. The market is showing signs of increased volatility, so traders should be prepared for significant movements.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
1
GOLD Heading to the 2500$ zone(7/16/2024)After a long and intense Correction, Gold made a Lower high and finally broke the correction trendline and made some upward moves. In this way, NFP and CPI data helped the price reach higher. Right now, the price will move a little higher, after some corrections, Gold will head for the 2500$ zone. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by fortunamarkets
Gold Nears Record High Amid US Rate Cut OptimismTechnical Analysis: Gold The price is approaching its all-time high of 2450 and is expected to consolidate between 2450 and 2428 until a breakout occurs. Bullish Scenario: If the price continues its bullish trend to reach the all-time high of 2450, closing a 1-hour or 4-hour candle above this level will support further increases towards 2466. Bearish Scenario: For a bearish trend, the price should stabilize below 2450, potentially falling to 2440 and 2428. A strong bullish volume is required to break through the 2450 level. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 2440 - Resistance Levels: 2450, 2466, 2475 - Support Levels: 2428, 2420, 2398 Today's Expected Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 2428 and the resistance at 2466, with a bearish tendency. Previous idea: Gold Rises with US Rate Cut Optimism, Approaching May Record High Gold prices rose on Tuesday as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell bolstered the case for a September rate cut. Investors are keenly awaiting more U.S. economic data for further monetary policy cues. Powell remarked on Monday that the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter of this year "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the Fed's target in a sustainable fashion. U.S. retail sales data due at 1230 GMT on Tuesday is expected to provide further direction. Gold hit multiple new highs in April and May, then retreated in June when U.S. interest rate cut forecasts were postponed, and physical demand softened in response to the high prices. In July, increased optimism for a September rate cut has driven the non-yielding bullion higher again. Combining this with the technical analysis: Bullish Outlook: Powell’s comments and the anticipation of a rate cut in September are likely to support the continuation of the bullish trend. If gold can break above 2450 and stabilize, it is expected to move towards 2466 and potentially higher. Bearish Outlook: If the economic data does not favor a rate cut, or if there is a shift in market sentiment, gold might fail to break above 2450. In this case, prices could stabilize below this level and target support zones at 2440 and 2428. Overall, while the market awaits further cues from U.S. economic data, the technical indicators combined with the current market sentiment suggest that gold is poised for significant movements, with a bullish bias given the rate cut optimism.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
2
HelenP. I Gold makes little correction and then rebound upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. A few moments ago price started to decline inside the downward channel, where it at once broke support 1 and fell until to support line of the channel. After this movement, the price rebounded and tried to grow more, but failed and soon dropped to the support zone, which coincided with support 2. Then price turned around and quickly rose to the resistance line of the downward channel, after which rebounded and made a correction to the trend line. When the price dropped to that line, it bounced and started to grow near this line. In a short time price exited from the downward channel and later reached support 1, which coincided with one more support zone. Price broke this level, made a retest, and continued to grow. For this case, I expect that XAUUSD will correct to support level and then continue to move up, therefore I set my goal at 2480 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FirstNameHelen
5
XAUUSD / Bearish Trend Below Key Level 2420Technical Analysis: Gold The price exhibits a bearish trend as long as it trades below 2420, targeting 2397. Stability above 2420 would indicate a continuation of the bullish trend while remaining below this level suggests a further decline. Bullish Scenario: The price needs to break above 2420 to enter an uptrend, with targets at 2429 and 2439. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades below 2420, it is expected to drop towards 2408 and 2397. A break below 2397 would further confirm a bearish trend, potentially reaching 2387. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 2420 - Resistance Levels: 2429, 2439, 2450 - Support Levels: 2408, 2397, 2387 Today's Expected Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 2387 and the resistance at 2429, with a bearish tendency.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SroshMayi
XAUUSD H1 - Long Signal $2000/ozXAUUSD H1 Here is a potential outlook for XAUUSD going forward, we have sold off since market opened, the opposite move I would have expected. However, we haven't really seen an influx of relevant trading volume yet, I would expect to see this during LON partially, but most likely the US open, both FX markets and subsequent US stock markets. $2400/oz is in the crosshairs for obvious reasons, we have traded from this price previously (with the exception of the PPI dump). Targets would be $2425/oz before potentially breaking higher. XAUUSD is undoubtedly up-trending. Lets see if this weekends headlines can add fuel to the fire.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade_Simple_FX
XAUUSD 14/7/24XAU (Gold) Following last week's markup, the hourly new bullish directional bias played perfectly into the bias we provided on Wednesday for the bullish hourly range to hold. We now have a new 4-hour high and low, which gives us another bullish range heading into this week. The options we have for this week are: The price liquidates our high, pulls back into the area of demand, and then goes bullish. If the area of demand is contacted and fails, the price falls into the larger higher time frame area of demand. If both areas of demand fail, we will look for a run of the liquidity built up last week, leading us into a bearish bias for this week. However, as it stands, we are looking for the bullishness to continue. Even if we pull down into the lower areas of demand, we will still look for bullishness once we get there. Remember, the overall principle here is to focus on areas where the price could react and consider possible moves. Only if the price gets to these areas can we really begin to capitalize on them.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by rosshayes
GOLD / Key Levels and Political ImpactGold Price Analysis (4-Hour Candle Timeframe) Based on the provided chart: 1. Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: $2,420 - Next Resistance: $2,439 - Key Resistance: $2,450 2. Support Levels: - Immediate Support: $2,397 - Next Support: $2,387 3. Current Price Action: - The price is currently around $2,410, testing the pivot line at $2,420. - There is a potential bullish scenario if the price breaks above $2,420, aiming towards $2,439 and possibly $2,450. - A bearish scenario could unfold if the price fails to hold above $2,410, leading to a potential drop towards $2,397 and further down to $2,387. 4. Market Sentiment: - The chart indicates a consolidation phase with key support and resistance zones that could determine the next direction. - The recent bullish move suggests that traders might anticipate positive momentum, but caution is advised around resistance levels. Impact of Political Events on Financial Markets The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump is likely to impact financial markets in several ways: 1. US Dollar (USD): - Short-term Strength: The US Dollar is likely to see short-term strength as investors seek safety amidst political uncertainty. - Investors typically flock to the USD during times of political turmoil due to its status as a global reserve currency. 2. Gold: - Price Surge: Gold prices may surge due to increased demand for safe-haven assets. - Political instability often drives investors to seek refuge in gold, which is considered a stable store of value during uncertain times. Summary Given the current technical levels on the gold chart and the potential political impact: Bullish Scenario: If gold breaks above $2,420, we could see a rally towards $2,439 and possibly $2,450. Bearish Scenario: Failure to maintain above $2,410 could lead to a drop towards $2,397 and further down to $2,387. Political Impact: The attempted assassination of former President Trump is expected to cause a surge in gold prices and short-term strength in the USD as investors seek safe-haven assets. PREVIOUS IDEA:
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
GOLD - Price can fall a little more and then start to growHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price made downward impulse from resistance line of wedge to support area, breaking $2385 and $2300 levels. After this, price turned around and started to grow to $2368 points, making fake breakout, after which bounced down. Price fell to support line of wedge, but at once bounced and started to move up, making one more fake breakout. In a short time later, Gold reached $2385 level, after which made correction to support line and then bounced up. Gold finally broke $2385 level and reached resistance line of wedge, but little declined from this line. Now, I think price can decline more and then bounce up to $2450, exiting from wedge pattern. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WalterMoon
2
HelenP. I Gold can drop to $2350 points, breaking support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price a few moments ago reached support 1, which coincided with the support zone and at once dropped to support 2. Also, the price fell to one more support zone, which coincided with support 2, but soon turned around and started to trades near this level. After a few moments, the price rose to 2368 points and then made an impulse down to the trend line, which is located inside the support zone. Then the price started to grow near this line and in a short time rose from the support zone to support 1, but when XAU touched this level, it at once rebounded and made a correction to the trend line. Next, the price rebounded from this line and finally broke support 1 and rose to 2424 points, but recently Gold started to decline. For my mind, XAUUSD will decline to the trend line, after which make a small movement up and then break the support level with the trend line. Then Gold can continue to decline, therefore I set my goal at 2350 points.If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FirstNameHelen
4
GOLD Slips Amid PBoC Buying Pause: Key Supply Zone in FocusThe price of gold attracted fresh sellers during the early European session on Monday. The precious metal lost traction following the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) decision to keep its gold buying on hold for the second consecutive month in June, as revealed by official data released on Sunday. This pause by one of the world's largest buyers of gold has put pressure on the metal's price. From our analysis, the gold price may test the $2,405 area, where we have identified a significant Supply zone. We have set a pending order at this level, anticipating potential resistance. This Supply area is critical for our strategy, as it aligns with historical patterns and technical indicators. Additionally, examining the seasonality of gold, we noticed that prices typically rise in August before entering a bearish period that lasts until October. This seasonal trend provides context for our current market approach, reinforcing the importance of the $2,405 Supply zone in our trading plan. We are closely monitoring the gold price as it approaches our identified Supply area. Given the historical seasonal trends and recent market developments, we are strategically positioned to respond if the price hits this key level. Our analysis suggests that this could be an opportune moment for a trade, anticipating a potential reversal as the market reacts to the PBoC's decision and seasonal patterns. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD Prices Surge as US CPI Data Sparks Fed Rate Cut SpeculationGold prices surged following the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which revealed a slowdown in inflation. This unexpected cooling of inflation has fueled market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may initiate interest rate cuts sooner than anticipated. The CPI data, released on Thursday, indicated that headline inflation in the US had dropped to 3.0% year-on-year in June. This figure is not only below the market’s expectations of 3.1% but also a significant decrease from the previous month’s 3.3%. The slowdown in inflation suggests that the aggressive rate hikes by the Fed over the past year are starting to take effect, reducing the urgency for further rate increases. In response to the CPI data, gold prices hit our sell limit in the supply area, prompting us to open a short setup. Our strategy targets the next demand area as the initial objective. While there is potential for gold prices to decline further to the lower demand zone around $2,220, our current target remains at $2,340. The bearish sentiment among commercial traders aligns with our setup, reinforcing our strategy. Commercials, who are typically large-scale market participants such as producers and merchants, continue to hold a pessimistic outlook on gold. Their positioning often provides valuable insight into market trends, and their current bearish stance supports our short setup. As we move forward, market participants will closely monitor the Fed’s policy decisions and economic indicators for further clues on the direction of interest rates. The possibility of earlier-than-expected rate cuts could continue to influence gold prices and market sentiment. In conclusion, the recent US CPI data has provided a significant boost to gold prices by increasing speculation about future Fed rate cuts. Our strategic short setup aims to capitalize on this movement, with a cautious eye on potential further declines. The alignment of commercial traders’ bearish outlook with our setup adds further confidence to our strategy as we navigate the evolving market landscape. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD to continue in the upward move?Gold - 24h expiry Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 2393.5. Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. The primary trend remains bullish. Dips continue to attract buyers. 20 4hour EMA is at 2388.4. We look to Buy at 2390.5 (stop at 2374.5) Our profit targets will be 2430.5 and 2438.5 Resistance: 2415.0 / 2424.6 / 2431.4 Support: 2405.5 / 2400.0 / 2380.0 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OANDA
1