AAPL / Apple - Idea I.Hey guys,
Yearly Chart: Bullish Engulfing
-> Showdown Zone at 228-246 (138.2 &161.8 Fib ext.)
200 Being the First Resistance and 210 the second.
Quarterly: Candle is bullish
-> broke through the ascending triangular pattern and closed above bullishly
-> moreover 210 has been broken and 220 has been tested. -> Some profit taking would be logical but is not necessary since 228 can be seen as the first "real" target. But we will see … 3D chart will show.
-> Stochastic Ind. is OB but pointing up. -actually it is still in a very bullish condition.
Monthly: Bullish close but long shadow.
-> Stochastics has turned up after forming a double bottom
-> Target of 210 has been reached so Monthly traders might take profit as well.
-> looking for Bullish entries after a correction towards 200-190 area.
3D: trend is up with Stochastic turning down
Trendline still bullish
thanks for reading…
Faang
2Y yield - 45 degrees, break-outs and break-downs. Using 45 degree angles for 2Y yield (or inflation barometer) and stock market (faang). Pretty useful.
Bolts show where break downs of inflation are and where inflation is rising.
45 degrees show the strongest trend. You dont even need to use RSI. all must equal
Forecasted to Reach New All-Time High with +14% Upside PotentialHi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NASDAQ:GOOG
Google has rebounded three times on the EMA200 Line with upward impulsive movement, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend. Additionally, it has formed a bullish chart pattern known as a falling wedge pattern. In March 2024, it broke out of the falling wedge pattern with a bullish full-body candlestick and higher-than-average 7-day trading volume . This higher-than-average trading volume is significant as it suggests increased market participation and conviction behind the price movement, reinforcing the validity of the breakout. Moreover, the MACD has made a bullish crossover, signifying a shift towards upward momentum. A bullish crossover in the MACD is a crucial signal in technical analysis, indicating a potential reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. This occurrence is significant as it suggests strengthening buying pressure, often foreshadowing further upward movement in the price. Analyzing these technical factors, we forecast a potential upward movement to our designated target.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on GOOG."
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VIX, no potential to break out?the closer Weekly BB to resistance, the better odds for VIX break out. Whilst everything is possible, I don't think it has the power or potential to break out.
TLT feels like bottoming somewhere this summer? depends on the inflation metrics. But FED itself believes inflation is coming down.
Often these one-time events are bought by the smart money. Depends if the conflict (mid east) escalates to something more? Maybe there's a broad market risk, outside the quality.
End-of-Quarter sell-off effectAccording to ChatGPT:
Yes, end-of-quarter sell-offs are a phenomenon observed in the stock market where investors may sell off their holdings toward the end of a financial quarter. There are several reasons why such sell-offs occur:
Portfolio Rebalancing: Institutional investors, such as mutual funds and pension funds, often rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter to maintain their desired asset allocation. If certain stocks have performed well and become overweighted in the portfolio, they may sell some of those stocks to bring the allocation back in line with their strategy.
Window Dressing: Fund managers may engage in window dressing at the end of each quarter. This involves buying or selling securities to improve the appearance of their portfolio holdings in reports to clients or shareholders.
Quarterly Earnings Reports: Companies typically release their quarterly earnings reports shortly after the end of each quarter. If these reports are disappointing or if there are concerns about future earnings growth, investors may sell off their holdings in those companies.
Tax Considerations: Individual investors may engage in tax-loss harvesting toward the end of the quarter to realize losses for tax purposes. This could lead to increased selling pressure on certain stocks.
These are just a few reasons why end-of-quarter sell-offs may occur in the stock market. However, it's important to note that not every quarter sees significant sell-offs, and market behavior can vary depending on a wide range of factors including economic conditions, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment.
GOTO: Price Action Analysis After TikTok's AcquisitionTikTok, owned by ByteDance Ltd., has entered into a significant agreement to invest $1.5 billion in a joint venture with Indonesia's GoTo Group. As part of this deal, TikTok will acquire 75.01% of GoTo's PT Tokopedia for $840 million. This strategic move involves integrating TikTok Shop's Indonesia business into the expanded entity, marking TikTok's return to the e-commerce landscape in Indonesia. The partnership aims to navigate and strengthen the online retail market, presenting a substantial investment by TikTok in the region. The acquisition is set to reshape the e-commerce landscape and boost market competition.
The initial market response has been negative, potentially influenced by profit-taking after a strong run-up. Some analysts believe the negative sentiment could stem from concerns regarding the impact of the acquisition on both TikTok and Tokopedia's market positions.
Now, Let's delve deeper into the technical analysis of GOTO
After facing multiple rejections around a significant resistance area and a dynamic resistance line (EMA 200 Line), the price exhibited the formation of a rising wedge pattern. This pattern, marked by two converging upward-trending lines, saw a subsequent breakout characterized by a bearish Marubozu candlestick and a notable increase in trading volume. This occurrence suggests a continuation of the bearish trend, emphasizing the strong selling pressure in the market. The confirmation of this potential bearish scenario is further supported by the MACD Indicator, which exhibited a death cross. The convergence of these technical signals indicates a robust indication of ongoing bearish momentum toward the target area.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on IDX:GOTO ."
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Nvidia near its cycle peakYou can't turn on the TV without hearing about Nvidia
that means that we're in the cycle distribution phase, can the stock rally to $1,300 certainly
so this isn't a call to sell $950 today at all, but it is a call that the years high probably happens between now and July 4th
start to make your exit plan now, so that when $1,300 arrives, you know what to do.
as new ATH print every week, it becomes easy to accidentally wind up as a boiled frog.
SMCI monster rally will chart a similar course
GOOGL: Gap-Filling Strategy with Exciting 6% Upside Potential !Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NASDAQ:GOOGL
On January 31, 2024, Alphabet's stock exhibited a gap down in after-hours trading subsequent to the disclosure of lower-than-anticipated ad revenue. Following this, the stock stabilized its descent, finding support at both the bullish trendline and the EMA90 line, indicating a possible rebound in this zone.
Furthermore, a bullish hammer pattern emerged, accompanied by elevated trading volume. These technical indicators commonly suggest a potential upward movement, either to close the gap or reach the predefined target area.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on GOOGL."
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Is the rest for AMZN short-lived LONGAMZN on the 60 minute chart since earnings shows the jump and the sideways consolidation
after that. Here the RSI is superimposed on the chart within its own 0-100 scale. It is currently
in what should be considered deep undervalued territory and at RSI support /demand. The
William's Alligator set of moving averages shows MA compression and so convergence.
AMZN's price is now in a tight range with volatility likewise compressed especially compared
with that at earnings. In short price is coiled, the potential energy is ready to get converted
to kinetic for those who have an understanding of classical physics.
All that said, I see AMZN as ready to roll. I will take long trades in shares and options as
AMZN is ready to hit the ground running.
AAPL to verse to upside trending ? LONGAAPL on the 60 minute chart is compared on the superimposed indicator on its own scale the
RSI for a similar time frame. The chart shows that AAPL has sunk to its price level in the
pre-earnings period two weeks ago. At present, price and RSI are running in parallel and
RSI is a litle higher than price while on its own scale. Price is currently near to the running
SMA 200. When I see either price or relative strenth move higher. I will be a buyer. I am looking
for some green on the relative volume indicator to tip me off. I will be watching on a lower
time frame of 15-30 minutes to get a clean entry pay off the spread and get into profits
ASAP.
Disney: Bullish Reversal, Upside Potential +10% ?Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NYSE:DIS
Following the breakout of the bearish trendline and double bottom pattern (signaling a Bullish Reversal), Disney sustained its upward trajectory beyond the double bottom and the EMA90 Line. Furthermore, a falling wedge pattern emerged near the EMA90 Line, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend. Subsequently, the price surpassed the falling wedge pattern, accompanied by the MACD line crossing above the signal line, reinforcing the likelihood of a bullish signal toward the target area. These technical indicators typically validate the potential for a bullish trend continuation.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Disney."
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MSFT: Hidden Bullish Divergence, Upside Potential+7%? Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft's current price action analysis (MSFT) reveals several significant indicators suggesting a favorable bullish trend. Firstly, the stock consistently trades above the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 34 line, signaling a robust bullish trend. Additionally, a recent development in a symmetrical triangle formation has been observed, followed by a decisive breakout from this pattern.
Moreover, the momentum indicator has exhibited a hidden bullish divergence, reinforcing the positive outlook. This confluence of technical signals indicates a strong likelihood of Microsoft continuing its upward trajectory. In our analysis, we anticipate a potential pullback to the previous resistance zone before resuming its bullish trend, with the initial target in sight. Further, we identify a second target for potential gains, underlining the prospect of sustained positive momentum in MSFT's market performance.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Microsoft."
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GOOGL setup is nowTechnical
a standard price action pattern:
trend A - sideways adjustment structure with more than 2 test- trend B is forming
the trend at higher timeframe is still bullish with meters being green
Fundamental
Numerator Side
Not quite promising but still positive. The expected growth on earnings and revenue are slightly lower than average of its industry. Won't be a boost but in fact no accident is the best thing to expect for FAANG stocks
Denominator Side
With the discount rate decreased by 75 to 100 bp, the valuation will be cheaper compared to the overvalued price now.
More importantly, don't forget about the mid and micro companies that can finance with lower WACCs are the base revenue contributors for Alphabet.
abcdefghiJK...Before I begin I'm going to explain the meaning of each line on this chart...
All you need to do to follow this and trade it for profit is focus on the solid plack path/arrow - that is the forecast for expected price action in the coming weeks (the thicker black path is general direction, the other black path is the expected subwaves). So when you load new bars in the coming weeks you'll see price trades along this forecast.
In summary, expect a 4-6% drop going into earnings, followed by a 10-14% rally after earnings
Pullback (pre-earnings 2/1): Don't enter long until around 1/26/'24 - 1/30/'24, wait to buy the upcoming dip.
- Point Downside target = 133 by 1/26/2024
- range for pullback = 132-137
~ This could still trade higher to around 146-147 before pullback, but it will get discounted (lower than current price) before earnings
Post-Earnings Rally: I'll be buying after this pullback going into the earnings report, good chance it will be trading around 144 after the report .
- Point INITIAL upside target (after pullback) = 148 by 2/12/2024
- Initial upside target range = 148-152 (in the time period 2/8 - 2/20)
*** After this hits initial target it will consolidate in the 146-152 range before making one final leg higher to low 160s by mid-March 2024 (could run as high as 172)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How to Play this (not financial advice):
- Don't buy/add shares (if you do go light), after this reaches 160-170 it will be the top, after that it will begin a major correction. If you're in shares look to sell in 160-170 range.
- Don't waste your energy playing puts to catch this pullback, instead wait for opportunity to enter calls
- I'll post an update when it is time to enter long
** I'll be looking at March expiration and choose strike based on extent of pullback.
P.S. Check the History
Bearish Channel Breakout, Setting Stage for a Return Above $300?Hi Realistic Traders. Here's my price action analysis on NASDAQ:TSLA !
On May 23, 2023, Tesla (TSLA) exhibited a breakout from the bearish trendline, sustaining its upward trajectory with consecutive higher highs and lows. Following this, TSLA's bullish momentum moderated, leading to the formation of a bearish channel. Notably, there has been a recent breakthrough above the upper trendline of this bearish channel, signaling a robust bullish indication. Adding to the bullish narrative, the momentum indicator (MACD) has executed a golden cross, further affirming the potential for continued upside movement toward the specified target area.
it is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on TSLA."
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Netflix's Bullish Trend Ending: Traders, Prepare for Downtrend!Hi Realistic Traders. Here's my price action analysis on Netflix
In our close examination of NFLX, the streaming titan, a compelling narrative unfolds. Initially, a double-top pattern emerged between July 2020 and January 2022, followed by a significant breakout from the neckline. This breakout confirmed a bearish reversal, resulting in a remarkable 70% decline from its peak.
However, the plot deepens. NFLX recently revisited its double-top pattern's neckline while concurrently crafting a channel chart pattern. Adding to the intrigue, NFLX struggled to regain its former heights and descended below both the lower trendline and the dynamic support line, a classic sign of a sustained bearish trajectory.
Not to be overlooked, the Stochastic indicator chimed in with a bearish divergence, providing further validation for the impending downward movement.
Our target price? Set conservatively at under $300.
Traders, prepare for a captivating journey ahead!
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
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Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on NASDAQ:NFLX ."
TSLA: Hit Major Resistance Area, Correction is Incoming?Hello Fellow Stock Traders, Here's a Technical Analysis of TSLA!
TSLA has demonstrated noteworthy price development, reaching a significant resistance level and resulting in a price gap. Subsequently, a bearish divergence has emerged, implying the possibility of a trend reversal or downward movement. Moreover, TSLA is presently forming a double-top pattern, which may signal a potential breakout scenario, indicating further downward movement toward the initial target area near the EMA200 Line. Subsequent to this, a probable pullback to the neckline area is expected, followed by a continuation of selling pressure towards the second target area.
Considering these technical factors, the current price action, and the indicators, a negative outlook is projected for TSLA. This suggests a potential downward trajectory in the near term.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
Disclaimer:
Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as a recommendation to take a long or short position on NASDAQ:TSLA .
GOOGL: Closing The Gap Soon?Hello Fellow Stock Traders, Here's a Technical Analysis of GOOGL!
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) has exhibited a notable price development by surpassing its Exponential Moving Average 50 (EMA50) and subsequently rebounding off the dynamic support level. This particular price action suggests a bullish trend in the stock. Moreover, there has been an identifiable formation of a descending broadening wedge, followed by a breakout of the upper trendline, accompanied by a bullish marubozu candlestick pattern. This breakout signifies the potential for an upward movement in the stock price.
Furthermore, the bullish outlook is reinforced by the emergence of a golden cross on the Stochastic indicator within the Neutral Area. The occurrence of a golden cross within this context typically indicates a higher probability of an upward movement toward the target area.
Taking these technical factors into consideration, the current price action and indicators point towards a positive outlook for GOOGL, suggesting the likelihood of an upward trajectory in the near term.
It is important to note that the roadmap will no longer be valid once the target/support area is reached.
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"Disclaimer: This analysis is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute a recommendation to take a long or short position on NASDAQ:GOOGL ".
SPY: Waiting for Debt Ceiling Deal, Bull Run Ahead?The SPY Trust, officially known as the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, is an exchange-traded fund designed to replicate the performance of the esteemed S&P 500 Index. Comprising 500 prominent U.S. large-cap stocks across diverse sectors, the S&P 500 Index serves as a widely recognized benchmark within the financial industry. By analyzing the chart's price movement, we could forecast the stocks' overall direction.
*Technical Analysis*
The Breakout of the Bearish Trendline is an early sign of trend reversal. Then, AMEX:SPY continues moving above the EMA200/ in the bullish trend. The recent breakout of the ascending triangle pattern confirmed a potential upside movement. The momentum indicator made a golden cross, signifying a possible bull run to the target area.
*Discussion Over the Debt Ceiling (Fundamental Drives)*
1. Due to the looming deadline, President Biden and prominent Democratic leaders in Congress have temporarily abandoned their insistence on raising the debt limit without any conditions attached. Instead, they are now considering a bipartisan agreement that would address both spending and certain policy matters. This is a position that Republican Representative McCarthy believes the Democrats should have adopted several months ago.
2. Furthermore, President Biden and congressional leaders have expressed some positive signs regarding the possibility of reaching an agreement. However, they have also acknowledged that there is still a significant distance to cover in order to prevent a situation where the government is unable to meet its financial obligations, which could happen as early as June 1st.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area.
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"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the SPY"
😀APPLE SAYS, 'HELLO, INDIA', as First India Stores Are LaunchedHello once again TradingViewers, and Welcome Aboard 💖
"The stars are aligned"
✨That is what tech pundits and insiders like to say on Apple’s first retail stores in India which will open in Mumbai and Delhi earlier in April, 2023, a move that would get the Cupertino-based company closer to the market with one of the youngest populations in the world.
✨As India’s economy is expected to have solid growth, with its 1.4 billion population, combined with the market’s increasing appetite for high-end smartphones, Apple is seeking to thrive in a market that offers many untapped opportunities for brands like it.
Apple has launched its first stores in India in Mumbai and Delhi.
✨ The Mumbai store will cover well over 22,000 square feet inside the Jio World Drive Mall, an upscale mall owned by India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani.
✨The retail outlet is a beautiful one, featuring a triangular handcrafted timber ceiling that extends beyond the glass façade to the underside of the exterior canopy.
✨ According to Apple, each tile is made from 408 pieces of timber, forming 31 modules per tile with a total of 1,000 tiles that make up the ceiling.
✨ In fact, there are over 450,000 individual timber elements, all of which were assembled in Delhi.
The Store
✨The flagship store, just like Apple’s other retail stores in key locations including Dubai and London, will be a cross between a retail store and an education centre, which Apple calls a "Town Square".
✨Just as with its other flagship locations, Apple’s stores in India will include the new Genius Grove, which is essentially a redesigned Genius Bar, as well as a new in-store experience called "Today at Apple".
✨Apple will also begin offering educational workshops and events, including sessions for photography, music, gaming, and app development.
✨Apple is known for maintaining a tight grip on the sales and distribution of its products. The company operates over 500 directly run stores globally. Until now, consumers in India had to buy iPhones, iPads, and Macs through resellers, online, or when on a trip abroad.
Things to consider
✨ Gaining a foothold in India gives brands like Apple access to a broader customer base.
✨ 65 per cent of Indians are under 35 years old.
✨ Technically, Apple stocks stay firmly above 5-years SMA, as well as above major Bullish multi-year trend
✨ Apple stocks are 30 per cent YTD, and seems are ready for further price action, as key breakout of Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern is happening right now.
NASDAQ: Breakout of Channeling, Sign of Bull Run Ahead?Here's a Technical outlook on NASDAQ!
Fundamental Drives
-Easing Inflation Data ( CPI data is 6.5% lower than the prior month's data of 7.1%)
-Possible Slower Rate Hike in the future or Stop hiking interest rates in the upcoming months by the Fed
Price Action Analysis
NASDAQ has already breakout of the upper trendline with an impulsive candlestick. After the breakout of the upper trendline, the index kept creating higher highs and higher lows on Daily Timeframe. The Price Movement above the Exponential Moving Average ( EMA ) of 200 also confirms the bullish trend. The MACD Indicator made a golden cross, signifying a possible upside movement in the long run.
All other explanations are presented on the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/Support area.
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"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the NASDAQ"