Amazon amazing set upHello guys, hopefully you all traders are surviving this painful 2022. Well done if you survived , otherwise learn and move on. At the end, you will make it one day.
Ok let's jump to the chart
if you know me, Long term fib retracement in red, weekly in blue and daily in Pink.
What did I do, I took the high and low from 2020, everyone likes to refer to pre-pandemic so let's consider that's the low we are targeting which is 2085 (78% retracement)
Where are we today 2185, 100 dollars difference (05/09/2022)
Weekly in blue and we are in full 100% retracement from high to low to high ( 2315 - 2015) is a buying area but mind it that's 300 dollars range. but today we are at 2185 which is closer to weekly 127% extension
Then there is a 100% retracement from March 29th , we are exactly at 100% retracement and also confluence with a trendline from 2019.
Everything says me that this is a BUY if we want to take a risk of 100 dollars from here which 78% monthly retracement.
And if you don't want to expose yourself to amazon directly then you have an option to go with QQQ or SPY as well. When amazon moves, indices move the same direction.
If my idea gets confirmed this week, I will follow up with the target, let's consider a minimum target of 2500 area which is 23% of entire weekly fib movement.
Good luck, let me know if you think otherwise. Thank you for your time.
Faang
Defaanged by bondsThe rush to bonds by the big funds will be breathtaking. As you may or not know I have been extremely bearish on big tech for a few months, now we are seeing that come to fruition.
This chart is qqq divided by bonds (bnd etf). As this comes down, it indicates that bonds will retain or gain value vs tech. This may be the most important financial rotation in our lifetime.
IS MSFT A HOPELESS SHORT ?MSFT today cut cleanly through a very important support line, as well as below the neckline of a massive Head and Shoulders pattern.
Not much to say, it should look to retest the broken zone, and that would be an ideal time to go short, or buy puts with, preferably, two months to expiration or sell calls.
In bear markets even the leaders take hits.
M2 Adjusted FAAMNG Tutorial/AnalysisThe current FAANG symbol does not have a very long history. Depending on the symbol, you get a chart that either starts from mid-2019 or 2016. We get couple more years of data in this chart, back to early 2014. I weighted each stock equally according to its 60 month average, and adjusted for M2 expansion, which gives us a very consistent support line. There's also a horizontal resistance line that extends from 2018 onward that is currently being tested as support, which raises the questions:
Is historical support now resistance? Is the resistance line now support? Or will we drop below the resistance line once again?
It wouldn't surprise me if we got a bounce here to once again test that the Support line is *actually* now resistance and the drop in price wasn't a fluke. Which, maybe it was. But on the other hand, smaller caps have gotten completely crushed, look at the M2 Adjusted Russell 2000 for example:
We're getting close to the "value" zone, but we're still at the bottom range of wholesale prices. I wouldn't be surprised if there's even more stop-loss style liquidations at these prices.
There are many many unprofitable companies, roughly 50%?!, that are feeling the pain in the Russell. It's not crazy to think that once the smaller caps fall, the rest of the larger dominoes fall. First, there were drops in sort of intangibly valued companies like Netflix/Peloton. Market shrugged it off. Then we saw a single day -0.25 trillion$ valuation drop in Facebook. Market shrugged it off. Now in the past few weeks, Amazon is finally looking terrible, and this is the first time in YEARS that the market seems to be taking it seriously. How long until Apple/Tesla bite the bullet? The market can only shrug off so much localized losses before it becomes systemic. It's only a matter of weeks or months, in my opinion, until we see the remaining FAANMG and others reflect the state of rest of the market.
So how did i manage to get the symbol on the chart?
This method is not perfect. There's lots of ways to do this. I decided to equally weight each stock by their 60 month SMA, given that mean reversion is a well known phenomenon. But you can use any anything you wish, as long as it normalizes the price in a way that you like. Literally anything.
First, I wrote down the SMAs like this:
60 month SMA:
FB = 221.34
AMZN = 2250.99
AAPL = 85.60
MSFT = 173.64
NFLX = 380.58
GOOG = 1585.70
Notice that AAPL has the lowest average, 85.6.
We can use AAPL as our "benchmark".
Divide every SMA by 85.6:
FB = 2.5857
AMZN = 26.296
AAPL = 1
MSFT = 2.0285
NFLX = 4.4460
GOOG = 18.524
Now we can add each price together, and divide by our adjuster that we just calculated, to get a fairly crude, but accurate enough, equally average-weighted basket:
AAPL+
FB/2.5857+
AMZN/26.296+
MSFT/2.0285+
NFLX/4.4460+
GOOG/18.524
Mash it all together, you get:
NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524
And adjust for M2 if you want:
(NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524)/FRED:WM2NS
This looks ugly though. The value is so small, there's no horizontal bars on the chart because of a display bug in TV or some other problem. So we can simply multiply the entire series by a value. in this case 15, until we get something that looks good.
(NASDAQ:AAPL+NASDAQ:FB/2.5857+NASDAQ:AMZN/26.296+NASDAQ:MSFT/2.0285+NASDAQ:NFLX/4.4460+NASDAQ:GOOG/18.524)/FRED:WM2NS*15
There's a lot of ideas fairly similar to this out there, but I hope this helps someone who might be curious how people came up with these crazy long symbols. Try it with your favorite sectors! Make your own sector benchmarks. You can combine up to 10 symbols at once! Here we only used 6 symbols (7 if you include WM2NS).
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets :)
BLOOD IN THE STREETSWe can see from the Weekly timeframe, that this crash in $NFLX is heading towards some substantial resistance, in the form of moving averages and previous highs / breakout highs.
You could perhaps (on the indication of reversal, on the 4H chart) take a long (leap) play, in light of the fact, that this drop was so substantial, we cannot have that much further down to go.
Then again.... of course, it could turn out we have much further down to go, and thus we use stop losses, as at best, we can never be sure of anything in the Markets.
So, I'll remain neutral for now, however, I'll be looking for that reversal.
*Side note, not that this is worth anything at all... We've blown through even the most bearish analyst estimates for the stock price*
Forward P/E 24.57.
FAANG: Is price <1k for this complex asset is possible? Disclaimer: These assets are not for new traders or those who don't tolerate ULTRA HIGH risks. I don't recommend this trade (also I don't recommend any other trade). This is just my market view on the current moment. It could be TOTALLY WRONG. If my view changes in the future I am not obligated to update this idea or publish a new one.
$GOOGL: Google will break! After almost all the Big TEchs have been strongly corrected, there is only one left that has not been corrected. And that is Google!
I think a correction will follow in the coming days/weeks. The market situation remains bad and Google could use a correction.
In any case, I am preparing for a potential short if there is a retest after the breakout. Let's hope for the best.
What happens when FAANG rises more than 5 times by 2000 days? Disclaimer: These assets are not for new traders or those who don't tolerate ULTRA HIGH risks. I don't recommend this trade (also I don't recommend any other trade). This is just my market view on the current moment. It could be TOTALLY WRONG. If my view changes in the future I am not obligated to update this idea or publish a new one.
FAANG: Is a final rise ahead on a Daily chart?Disclaimer: These assets are not for new traders or those who don't tolerate ULTRA HIGH risks. I don't recommend this trade (also I don't recommend any other trade). This is just my market view on the current moment. It could be TOTALLY WRONG. If my view changes in the future I am not obligated to update this idea or publish a new one.
FAANG potential for bounce | 7th MarchPrice is near buy entry price of 4513.89 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially bounce from this level to the take profit level of 4868.38 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection . Our bullish bias is supported by technical indicator.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FAANG potential for bounce | 7th MarchPrice is near buy entry price of 4513.89 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially bounce from this level to the take profit level of 4868.38 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by technical indicator.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FAANG potential for bullish bounce | 4th MarchPrice is near buy entry level of 4619.72 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially bounce to the take profit level of 5012.95 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by technical indicators.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FAANG potential for bullish continuation | 3rd MarchPrice is trading in a descending channel and near buy entry level of 4609.60 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 5005.16 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement . Our bullish bias is supported by technical indicators.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FAANG potential for bullish continuation | 3rd MarchPrice is trading in a descending channel and near buy entry level of 4609.60 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 5005.16 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is supported by technical indicators.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FAANG potential for bullish bounce | 2nd MarchPrice is near buy entry level of 4734.49 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 5008.63 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by technical indicators.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website