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GOOG ... We still early on this Triangle!I believe GOOG is a highly interesting setup to the upside at the moment... The pullback seen in FAANGS since the NASDAQ100 made its ATH in Mid-February has barely tickled this stock... This means the bulls are pushing it and momentum to the upside is perhaps much stronger than that of its peers... Moving on to business... Elliot Wave Analysis is my specialty... I go as deep and detailed as one can go in my wave analysis... Wedges / Triangles (you name it) are my signature setups... GOOG is carving out a very convincing Triangle that is just starting to break to the upside. STOPS should be placed @2043… If the market breaks this level, my analysis becomes invalid… I will not go into detail as to why at the moment… I’d rather go deep in regards to the target price. In regards to the TARGET, several things need to be pointed out… The NASDAQ100 and therefore, the FAANGS, are a bit risky to be traded to the upside at the moment… The market has been completely spooked by rising yields, which have specifically damaged the FAANGS in the investor’s community… Furthermore; there are certain times where bullish Triangles generate a very impulsive move to the upside, only to be followed by a sharp decline… One needs to remain humble on this trade… Other details could be mentioned, but it should be enough for now, so I’ll go ahead and specify the TARGET recommendation: 2320 should be the first target in upcoming days/weeks… 2400 could be reached and lastly I can see the market reaching as far as 2500… This are all Fib projections… For me personally, even 2320 is way too greedy, given the trading environment we are in… After breaking the 2153 level towards ATH, anything is possible… Perhaps booking profits early in the game, around 2200 and then trailing the stop could be the best way to go… Hope it helps and you have a solid trading.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by jcanessa
FAANGs - What Lockdown??? - Reflation TradeWhat you are looking at is an equally weighted 'portfolio' of all the FAANG stocks, ~FB ~AMZN ~AAPL ~NFLX ~GOOGL And what the performance would have looked like if you had put an equal dollar weighted amount into each, at the earliest point you were able to, i understand that this is impossible to time or predict, but what it does do, is it serves to illustrate just how skewed the overall market performance is, when you analyze the best performers. In terms of drawdown during the global lockdown? Minimal, in terms of peak to trough move, the global lockdown did not measure above a slightly above average drawdown, in fact, the drop in 2019-2019 was more severe, at a 36% drop, versus the 27% drop experienced recently. What is more interesting is that the lockdown, if anything is allowing these already MASSIVE companies to gobble up even more of the market share, when compared with the real economy (i.e. small/ mid-size business) In fact, YTD, the FAANGs are UP close to 27%, versus the Russell 2000, which more closely represents smaller sized businesses, which is DOWN close to 21.5% I find this to be slightly troubling, because the FAANGs are not all stocks you would expect to boom during the global lockdown. Yet, they are all doing extremely well, compared with the broader market. Here are 4 of the 5 FAANGs (FB, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL) Here is AMZN As you can see, both GOOGL and FB are both doing VERY well, considering they are predominantly advertising platforms for businesses...you know, the businesses that are shutting down in record numbers, furloughing staff and cutting hours. I assume that this surge in stock price has nothing to do with the Fed liquidity hose and is all to do with savvy business owners all seamlessly switching to an online E-commerce business model. AMZN and NFLX are no surprises, these are the quintessential 'stay-at-home' bet, so i am not surprised at their relative out-performance. AAPL is no real surprise either, simply due to the overwhelming size of the company, as well as the generally healthy balance sheet (a couple hundered billion of cash laying around doesn't hurt either to boost investor confidence). I will close with this, prior to the market crash and global lockdown, these same stocks were being derided by many for being fundamentally overvalued, add in a global lockdown and a few trillion in stimulus and here we are. The lesson is...do not underestimate how irrational a market can be...trade what is actually happening...not what you THINK should happen... Clearly, the reflation trade is on. -TradingEdge
NASDAQ:META
by Profit_Link
2
NDX - Potential Gap Fill? - Time to be VERY careful nowMarkets are anything but boring, idiotic perhaps, but not boring that's for sure. The Nasdaq is just shy of 7% from the prior ATH, despite the fact that the economy has still NOT reopened, many small businesses are in tatters, large business are hat in hand to the Fed and Treasury for bailouts AND north of 30 million Americans are unemployed. Initial Claims: So how do we play this market? Carefully...very carefully... The Nasdaq could very easily fall away from here, hitting it's head on the 78.6% fib retracement, mind you, this WOULD NOT invalidate the latest move higher, crazy as it may seem. Should the Nasdaq fall away from here i would expect to see support show up at the 38.2% fib level, currently around the 8,200-8,400 mark, this would also coincide with a nice potential gap fill around the same area. Nasdaq potential trajectory to the downside: BUT, this is largely going to be dependent on how the 'cream' of the crop perform, namely the FAANG stocks (FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL). Which recently have shrugged off any concerns about a potential global depression and have in fact make new ATHs. FAANG stocks make new ATHs: What to look for? ~Should we see TWO closes above the 78.6% fib retracement, then the odds are more skewed towards the bullish case for a gap fill at the 90 fib level or even a retest of prior highs. ~ If however we head lower, say two closes below the 9 ema, then i would begin to favor the bearish case to 8,200-8,400 more. Lending credence to the bear case is the rather neutral/ bearish RSI reading at the moment is a good gauge of potential direction, which at press time is NOT confirming the latest moves higher. In any case, I do firmly believe that the markets WILL head lower soon, BUT the fact that the 'obvious' path is down, leads me to believe that we may well be looking at one of the greatest bull trap in recent memory. -TradingEdge
TVC:NDQ
by Profit_Link
SPY - Top 10 Holdings - Compared with Overall MarketHere we have the top 10 holdings within the SPY ETF, ~ MSFT ~ AAPL ~ AMZN ~ FB ~ BRK.B ~ GOOGL ~ GOOG ~ JNJ ~ JPM ~ V These represent 25.23% of total assets within the ETF, by combining them we are able to get a gauge of what the market movers are doing compared with the entire index. The first thing you will notice is the difference in retracement levels, between the top 10 and the broader market, this is not surprising, but it is interesting. For the top 10, we are sitting just shy of the 78.6% retracement, whereas the broader SPX is just shy of the 61.8%. The second thing you will notice, is when the chart scale is measuring percentage gain, the top 10 are actually doing VERY well relative to the broader market. This difference is even clearer when a baseline chart is used. I have also done the same thing with the FAANG stocks (FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL). Look at that! If you ignore that pesky "real economy" we are back at all time highs! The difference between the curated FAANG stocks, the top 10 and the broader SPX is quite startling A better lesson in why "diversification" is just a tool to part fools from their cash, i have yet to see. The other observation i can see, is that both the FAANGs, the top 10 and the broader SPX are all looking a tad extended, the FAANGs have gap filled and have put in a rather ordinary looking closing candle. The top 10 is just shy of gap filling and appears to be struggling a little at the 78.6% and the SPX looks like it might be able to get to the 61.8, but will likely struggle from there. Overall, i am expecting to see some more potential strength, but only marginally, before either the markets enter a more choppy condition, or they roll over and look to retest their prior lows (SPX that is). In any case, all three markets from the "cool kid" FAANGs to the "above average" top 10 to the "bastard stepchild" SPX are looking like their relief rallies are a little long in the tooth, that being said, with the Fed printing and propping up these markets, a melt-up is not off the table and is a scenario i will be watching carefully. -TradingEdge Sources: finance.yahoo.com
NASDAQ:META
by Profit_Link
2
Netflix Still Has Room To FallDespite a 36% dive, $NFLX can fall another 29% and still post a small gain for the year. Given rising volatility and a broad-market correction, a short position on Netflix could be a good idea. A bearish strangle with expirations on DEC21 is what I'm currently holding. The possibility for an end of year rally is still there (hence using a strangle for protection if things go awry), but the probability of that rally grows increasingly slim - particularly within the FAANGs as a correction is far past due.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by UnknownUnicorn2997486
FAANGs vs Acquirer's MultipleThis is to illustrate what would have happened to your portfolio of you invested in the glamour FAANG stocks instead of the Acquirer's Multiple, in response to this article: seekingalpha.com ...which said that in the period from the date of 6th November 2017 until 6th of May 2018 the growth was 9.18%. This chart shows that you would have had a 152% gain over the same period with the glamour stocks. Also of interest is that at time of publishing, 5th November 2018 (a day before the next six month reporting period for Ryan's portfolio, we are at 142% growth after reaching an all time high on the FAANGs competitor portfolio of ~400%. Note that this drawdown for the FAANGs is occurring under significant bearish divergence between price and RSI. The price is likely to continue to drop for the FAANGs and it will be interesting to see if the Acquirer's Multiple portfolio begins to catch up. At the moment though, despite the FAANGs pullback, it is still ~130% ahead of the AM portfolio.
NASDAQ:META
by ndthl