Meta - To Long, Or To Short?I have to say that Meta is one of the hardest charts that exist to read right now, mostly because for 9 straight months, an unprecedented feat in the history of Facebook, it has gone up in a straight line, and bigly.
You only see it clearly on the monthly:
And yet the problem with the bull thesis for a new all time high is the '22 bear raid took out all the sell side all of the way back to 2016.
Although you can have, and speculators and hodlers have been fortunate enough to have had, a significant retrace afterwards, stocks taking long term lows is usually kind of like when a person turns 50 and starts urinating blood.
It means something is wrong with an organ and the time they have left to live is not so long and not so bright.
Even the weekly is insanely one-directional
This stock will have attention tomorrow as post-market earnings have produced another $20 gain, but notably, as of time of writing, have brought the price only to $319, still underneath the July high.
Geopolitical risks abound in the markets right now. Much is happening with Mainland China and the International Rules Based Order. You can consult my previous calls, which are below, for my thoughts on the situation.
But the Cliff's Notes of it is that the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Gong by the Jiang Zemin faction and the CCP may soon be made public worldwide if President Xi weaponizes those sins to protect China, its 5,000-year-old culture, and himself from the IRBO intending a Maidan Revolution-style coup to replace him with someone from Taiwan that happens to be a fine lapdog to the global regime's interests.
What is the bull thesis for Meta? Facebook is something of a panopticon data collection system and advertising network rolled into the guise of a social media platform where people voluntarily disclose their location, interests, likes, connections, and spend time interacting with friends and family.
Meta's rebrand is to force the world into something of a Nintendo 64-level version of Second Life, where you're supposed to literally sit in your cube eating the cricket crackers under a bunch of blankets with the furnace/AC off with the VR headset strapped to your face while you do data entry all day.
It's really the kind of dystopian thing the Chinese Communist Party really likes, because it means you can be submissive and agreeable slaves that don't threaten its stability and still produce work.
If mankind's future is truly to return to tradition (it is), what place does Meta have in it?
Meta has very little place in the future, and that's a fundamental problem, really, for everything that revolves around people living chained to computers and phones.
A really notable thing is that the Chinese Government, especially under Xi Jinping since he took power in 2013, has not allowed Meta/Facebook to set up shop inside Mainland China.
The world's most notorious totalitarian regime and the creator of social credit and censorship does not want Meta/Facebook's influence impacting their citizens.
Ain't that something. And yet, you're supposed to be bullish on this... because it's going up.
You just want something to go up so you can buy it and feel pleased when you see green, not sell, and then feel sad when you see red, red, red, and are liquidated.
This is modern humanity.
So here's the question with Meta: is it a short, or is it a long?
The truth is that with Meta, it's gone up in the kind of straight line that makes Apple blush for 9 straight months.
When something trades like this, you can never say "it's a short."
Instead, you can watch for when it does become a short.
And we're in the zone. Although the biggest gap has been filled, the monthly candles show that the bodies of the winning streak's candles are still respecting the range created by the February of 2022 doom candle that ended the Party.
On the daily, the last five days of price action, which correspond with a Nasdaq that may very well have topped but an SPX that does not seem to have topped yet, are the most bearish they have been during the entire bull run.
And so, if you want to get long on open, I can only encourage you to exercise caution. You may really have upside as high as $343. But you may also have upside no higher than $325.
It may also gap up on market open and then sell off, and that kind of a sell off at this kind of a time may mean you are trapped.
To confirm a bull thesis, $343 needs to be broken and maintained
To confirm a bear thesis, the first thing we need to see after the earnings manipulation is for the $288.30 double bottom to be broken.
From there, if $258.88 is broken, the trend is over and will have reversed, even though you may see further upside in the interim.
A break over $325 and then a rejection under $288 would be the most bearish. If that unfolds, it's no longer a dip to buy. Instead, long term puts while the VIX is so suppressed might really be really, really valuable.
And the problem for both bears and bulls is the $40 range that "confirms" whether there's forever uppy or forever doom.
META: Potential Early Bearish C Entry on ABCD PatternMETA is showing heavy amounts of MACD Hidden Bearish Divergence and is Extremely Overbought on the PPO after making a 0.786 Fibonacci Retrace of the 2021 Highs and now it is potentially looking to end the BC Wave and begin a CD Wave, which would take it all the way down to the 1.272 Fibonacci Extension located at the $23.56 level.
META Is this the start of a significant correction?Since November last year we have been issuing a strong buy signal on Meta Platforms (META) and our most recent analysis on February 02 (see chart below) came with a huge final bullish warning while the price was still at $189.00:
The stock hit $320.00 last week, almost filling the gap with the 1W candle of January 31 2022 (practically META's start of collapse) and pulled-back. The big question on the market this week is, can that be the start of a greater correction?
Well technically it is testing today the first key support level, the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the 6 month Channel Up pattern that started in late February. If broken, it is unlikely to see the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) hold.
The key (technical) reason behind it, is the massive Bearish Cross that got formed this week on the 1W MACD. This is a major development as it is a rare event that always initiated a rather notable pull-back. More specifically, in the past five (5) years, we have had another six (6) 1W MACD Bearish Crosses, all making a Lower Lows after it. The minimum correction was -17.33% while the maximum -43.50%. Practically META made its large corrections (-43.50%, -38.60%) when it faced legal action and during the pandemic. The rest standard (technical) pull-backs ranged from -17.33% to -19.70% (also -28.15% on the last Bearish Cross but fundamentals were also present).
This is the reason we expect a pull-back below the 1D MA50 if the Higher Lows of the Channel Up fail (to close 1D candles above it). The minimum projected correction range of -17.33% would give us a pull-back to $265.00. A -19.70% would give $256.00.
That would start making META a technical buy again, where long term investors can start applying buying strategies with a tolerance level up to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
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META suppressed by the 0.786 level of the golden section! META suppressed by the 0.786 level of the golden section!
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of META stocks over the past two years. The graph overlays the top to bottom golden section of 2021. As shown in the figure, the high point of META stock in the past two weeks has been suppressed by the 0.786 level of the golden section in the figure, and it has now returned to below the 1.000 level of the golden section! In the next few weeks, the META stock is likely to step back at the 1.382 position in the golden section of the chart, and then choose a direction to break through!
META Platforms Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold META here:
Or reentered here:
Then analyzing the options chain and chart patterns of META Platforms prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 290usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $27.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
META: Channel Up will attempt to close the February 2022 Gap.META maintains the aggressive four month Channel Up on an overbought 1D timeframe (RSI = 73.991, MACD = 9.890, ADX = 37.410) that shows no signs of easing before the next Resistance and that is located at 328.00, which was the High of February 2nd 2022. After that the stock price plunged to 245 following the loss of investor confidence. It would appear that the rally won't stop until it closes at least that Gap. As a result we go on a short term buy, targeting the Resistance (TP = 328.00).
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"Never bet against Zuck" $META topping out hereThere are many people that think that NASDAQ:META will keep rallying here to new highs. I'm not one of them.
Lately I've been seeing people post "Never bet against Zuck." That tells me all I need to know about sentiment here at the highs.
Like many other assets, I think META has rallied due to a technical bear market bounce and is now losing steam.
We've either already put in a top here at resistance, or there is one more move slightly higher to $307.54 that will pull in the last of the holdouts that haven't invested yet before dumping on them.
I don't care about narratives, whether it's AI, threads, VR or whatever fundamental reason you can give a company for "needing to go up."
The reality is, it's all about market structure and what price action says. And to me, we're nearing a top that will take price back to below the previous low we hit last year.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming year.
META completing 8 straight months of gains. How far can it go?META is about to close the month on the 8th straight green candle, which is of course way beyond any rally in the company's history.
Having broken even above the 0.786 Fibonacci level and turned the 1month MA50 into Support again, the question on everyone's mind is how far can the market extend this rally.
Looking at its short history, all of Meta's rallies didn't stop before the 1month RSI entered the overbough (over 70.00) zone. And the RSI is currently at 61.88, considerably lower than this limit.
Of course it can be argued that this time the rally started after the 1month RSI rebounded from the oversold area, the first time in its history.
But technically, it appears that the market both technically and fundamentally has what it needs to keep investors interested and most likely won't correct substantially before testing at least the $385 All Time High.
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BTC bearish support my idea In support of yesterday's technical analysis and accompanying this analysis, on the weekly time frame a bearish divergence occurs on the RSI, so we are sticking to the targets that i mentioned in my previous forecast analysis, as it is already hit the first target, so check it out.
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do your own math & trade save.
regards
Meta -> Rally Not Over YetHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis.
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Meta stock started a crazy dump in September of 2021, dropping roughly 80% in a very short period of time but bounced back significantly.
You can also see that the recovery started in October of 2022 and from there Meta created a rally of 200% towards the upside and is now approaching resistance at the $300 level from which I do expect a short term rejection away towards the downside.
On the daily timeframe you can see that Meta stock is still massively bullish, creating new highs every single day so I am now just waiting for a retest of the previous resistance at the $275 level and then I do expect a final blow-off to retest the $300 resistance zone.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
META H&S can send it skyrocket to $294, unless the MA100 breaksMETA has arguably been one of the hottest, if not the hottest, stocks of the year.
The minor (for its parabolic state) correction since Tuesday has seen it hit the MA100 (1h), which is so far holding.
This has completed a Head and Shoulders pattern, which is technically a bearish structure.
If the neckline but more importantly the MA50 (1h) breaks, we expect the price to invalidate the bearish signal of the H&S.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the price closes above the 268.50 neckline and the MA50 (1h).
2. Sell if it closes under the MA100 (1h).
Targets:
1. 294 (Fibonacci 2.0).
2. 250 (the MA200 1h).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) has crossed over the MA trendline. This is a short term signal of bullish strength.
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META - KEYLEVELS 1htfMETA - KEYLEVELS 1htf
Meta is strong on his up trend , also beacuse we have a broken resitance on weekly time frame.
But now this zone looks more and more like a distribution zone , carefful on short META , if you wanna do it, maybe you need to wait for a broken red line ( neckline ) with a scalp trade.
Meta is Continuing the Rally towards the Next Key LevelFollowing the recent breakout on the initial key level, a continuation of the bullish rally is expected, driving the price further upward. The anticipation is for the price to maintain its bullish momentum and move towards the next key zone formed.