Buy facebook (meta) huge buy volumeBuying Facebook here under the new re-brand meta.
From a purely TA perspective, Meta looks great. The best signal in trading is volume and support. We can see huge buy volume came into facebook last week on the buy side at support. This gives high probability that the share will look to take out its ATH. This is a great leveraged play here which could reap massive profits buy holding till next year or more.
From a fundamentals perspective everyone knows the facebook brand is pretty unloved. Meta is a fantastic idea. Zuckerbug through his ownership of facebook and instagram has tonnes of personal data on us all and will surely know how to use behaviour marketing strategies to encourage us all into the new metavese. I predict that within a year or so we will all have some form of online avatar presence and the metaverse will be the next big thing.
Meta looks an incredible buy here, stop loss at last weeks low.
META Facebook/Meta - Too Much Bear, Not Enough BullPersonally, I have only low opinions of Facebook, for it exists really as a big data collection hub. A lot of tracking cookies just traffic your browsing history and information back to their servers, whether you have an account or not, for AI analysis and surveillance.
And then there's the Metaverse, which Mark Zuckerberg and Communist Party Global are so delirious that they think you're going to spend your 40 hour work week with a 10 pound Oculus Rift bolted to your face while you lay on the floor in your pod covered in blankets with your heat restricted by the Communist Party Central Planning Committee to 18C eating the bugs as they scream "climate crisis" and "energy crisis" while showing off in their private jets, feasting on cows.
All commentary on the state of affairs of the company and the disastrous direction the Metaverse vaporware has taken it aside, I'm a price action trader, and when it comes to Meta, which is a keystone of the Nasdaq, you just have to have your interest piqued when something has dropped as much as this boat anchor has.
Notably, in the last 2 months and 4 days alone, Meta has lost 76% of its value.
Just look at this monthly:
With stocks, these types of doom gaps rarely seem to present a real buying opportunity to capture a retrace with. This is demonstrated in Meta on the weekly, which shows literally 8 consecutive losing weeks, with pretty much no bounce at all.
In the last two weeks alone, from the broken low to the bottom was another 28%.
Looking at the daily, we can see that the post-earnings dump just literally went straight down in a straight line.
This is the definition of "oversold," really. But as any seasoned trader who has burned their hands will tell you, something being oversold does not make it a buy, for that oversold indicator can snake on the floor for a lot longer than you can stay solvent before finally recovering.
Yet, we get to a key juncture that gives us a situation that certainly piqued my interest tremendously.
Not only has Meta dumped another $10 in the first trading days of November already, but it made a very weak high on the first and has since traded below a key pivot low from 2016.
Additionally, price action on Non-farm payrolls Friday showed Meta crush through a short term double bottom and then reverse.
To me, all the stars have aligned and all the conditions precedent for bears to get #rekt are present.
Going long here means you have a $7 upside just to the November high. That November 1 high will not be the high of the month for Meta. You can pretty much set your watch to that. At some point, they will rip it past it and clear out the shortsellers and bring in rally chasers, for sure.
Better yet, trading back to the post-earnings gap down to rebalance the range produces a $12 upside.
If Meta trades back to range equilibrium of the up candle before the earnings dump, your upside is $25.
A key point here is the area above $120 is a high resistance range on the weekly. If Meta starts to trade in here, especially if it doesn't reject hard, the upside can be significantly higher.
You might think that there's no way it could happen, but there's always some latent "news" driver that has been arranged to power the bear guillotine and bring the FOMO in.
The key point with trades like this is to manage your risk. Don't be too greedy. Take profits. Be patient. Give up if it won't pump.
But don't bottom short and make yourself a dead bear, either. If Nasdaq does what the Dow just did during election week next week, a lot of people's bottom puts are going to expire worthless while those short on margin are going to get gap up on open liquidated.
Meta: Chilli Cheese DipMeta is currently reorganizing parts of the company, which resulted in 11,000 job eliminations and further cost-cutting moves. The Meta course is currently rising and expected to fall back down into a correction into the yellow trading area below the support line at $88.09. After the green wave is completed, the trend should shift out of the yellow area to work its way above the resistance at $142.60. Once the Meta-course reached that mark, it should easily climb further above $171.39. If the current trend continues to rise above $142.60, with a probablity of 40%, the Meta course would follow our secondary scenario which is expected to exceed the $171.39-mark without even dropping into a correction in the short-run.
META Can cutting 11000 jobs reverse the bearish outlook alone?The news of a 11k jobs cut had an immediate bullish impact on the Meta Platforms Inc (META) stock, helping it break above the 100.00 barrier again. Today's much lower than expected CPI number is also adding fuel on this rally but can those alone push the price out of the death spiral it has been since January in particular?
Well technically the November 03 drop made a Lower Low on the Channel Down pattern that Meta has been trading in since the February 03 collapse. Taking also into account the massive rebound below the 30.000 1D RSI oversold zone, the price can target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) by the end of this month. Beyond that, only a closing above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is unbroken since December 30 2021, can turn the trend bullish.
As you see, the November 03 bottom was made on the January 20 2016 Low (89.25). The next Support is the August 25 2015 Low of 72.10, so we will be ready to short this and if broken then 60.00.
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The 1.1 Trillion Dollar Penny StockI have three major principles in my life. The first is the Golden Rule, the holiest of all rules. Treat others the way I want to be treated. The second major principle is "holla holla get dolla", which is a really fun way to say respect the hustle, respect other's choices in life. Naturally, my third is that Rome was strongest with the triumvirate. All of this to say that when I act a fool, I expect others to tell me and moderate - this is the natural evolutionary cycle of social structures. It is of absolute sociological importance for bad behaviour to be called out. Jedi Blue, Suckerberg's Metaquest to find a friend, an inability to refinance debt, the real web3.0, and the literal heat-death of Facebook's geriatric population all spell doom for an over-glorified penny stock.
First, what exactly was Wall Street thinking letting a GeoCities RSS feed for people's feelings get to a $1.1 TRILLION dollar market cap? It is difficult to explain the need for controlling health care inflation when the same economy is more than happy to offer debt to a business incapable of making a profit at valuations well into the hundreds of billions of dollars. Fine, the bubble popped. A lot of people, pensioners, and sovereign treasuries lost a lot of money. But for Facebook it's a little bit more severe. Facebook has around $10 billion in long-term debt, debt that is most assuredly used to recycling at the lowest interest rates possible garnered by free government money. What starts as a few billion recycling at ~4-6% per year starts finding draining liquidity in corporate bond markets making it hard to offer debt at 10+%. Meanwhile, real world inflation driving up operating costs for office, labour, and servers force bigger and bigger debt offerings to less and less willing parties. Advertising growth declines and degrades as advertisers suffer in recessionary markets. Plus the $10 billion in long-term debt is nothing compared to carrying $16 billion in floating accrued expenses -think cycling debt among credit cards, $15 billion in "deferred revenue"- as if renaming fake profits makes it more real, and a $7.5 billion mixed bag debt growing by $250 million a quarter. There is a funny saying that owing the bank a hundred dollars makes it your problem, owing the bank a hundred million dollars makes it theirs. Banks are reanalyzing their tail-risk models for profit and capital margins. Forgoing the mysterious $84 billion a year in revenue, Facebook burned $62 billion this year alone. A decrease in real revenue is an undertone to out of control costs that needed to be dealt with a decade ago. All of which are suddenly important.
Facebook's interdimensional turn to the Metaverse at investor expense in the billions with no plan to stop illustrates an Executive board that isn't controlling risk or managing direction. Removing Zuckerberg won't be easy, if at all possible. Facebook can change it's name all it wants, but there is one person in power. The public aren't the only ones harbouring negative feelings for Zuckerberg and his company; various US and International legal groups have been launching investigations and lawsuits against Facebook, Facebook's Directors, and Zuckerberg personally. The FTC won a $5 billion charge against Facebook in 2020 in relation to selling user's personal data. Now the FTC is against the very fabric of Facebook: Illegal Monopolization via uncompetitive acquisitions to be resolved by shedding Instagram, WhatsApp, and more. Facebook has attempted to dismiss it twice, failed on both counts, and is now pushing for a delay in trial - something unlikely to happen. Intertwine a multi-state and multi-country investigation into Google & Facebook's "Jedi Blue" collusion, research reports codifying the bad return on investments of digital ad spend, especially on Facebook, and it starts to look like a crisis of confidence in an entire business model. Google has been in a constant battle regarding it's own Monopoly and the power of pricing that comes with it, most ending with a corporate-win inside the United States. While Republicans' hatred against Big-Tech is more bark than bite, certain lawsuits in Republican-driven states pose the probability of a big loss for big brother business. However, the EU investigation into Jedi Blue is far more likely to create a material change in ad pricing. The basics are this: Facebook and Google agreed on a floor of pricing ads, thus forcing companies to pay more than in a free and competitive market. While this isn't surprising, it is illegal - making materially impactful fines and pricing changes a very likely outcome within the next few years, again all enhanced by a global recession.
Invoke the Laws of the Monthly Active Users and bequeath one billion dollars. Or just know that internally-verified MAU's are on par with Allianz SE returns. Facebook claims 3 billion monthly active unique users of whom 500 million joined since COVID in Q1 2020. The underlying growth trend shows nearly perfect linear growth from 2008 to 2020, and logarithmic post. Without the ability to predict the future, Facebook is sitting at a 1% annual growth rate over 2 years on a statistic that only they can confirm. Facebook knows growth has stalled and will turn negative, if it hasn't already, all leading up to the dramatic need for Facebook to CREATE a UNIQUE digital space to bring in NEW users. Where Facebook claims Horizon Worlds is only a $1.2 billion failure, R&D costs are up $8 billion in the same 9-month period YoY. But the failure aspect is correct, as Horizon Worlds has failed to breach 200,000 unique users with a recent investigation showing a general localized environmental userbase <50 people. This analyst won't fault the metaverse for this failure. Facebook isn't just uncool and unpopular, they are reviled in a way that only a new generation can do. If Web3.0 is about decentralization against mass-control, there are few homo sapiens lizard-people that have earned such hysterics as Zuckerberg.
One final inspection of their public accounting records leaves one final question: how much longer can Facebook run? With just under 50% of cash equivalents in corporate debt securities with an 8% unrealized loss in a year, paired to a $2.3 billion or 14% degradation of the Corporate Treasury in the past 9 months, what is the game plan? Facebook is looking at $2+ billion per year in increased costs to refinance debt at minimum, that is if they find a bid. The company has burned more on a Metaverse catering to no one, being sued by the FTC to break up the social media conglomerate completely, looking at decreased revenue, decreased value of previous revenue, and a very tangible decline in users amid a digital transformation period brought by a new generation wholly happy to cancel celebrities and companies. There is a growing probability and possibility of a failure for Facebook to maintain debt and business operations without filing for bankruptcy or modification of historic debt. Facebook is a penny stock, at least while it remains listed.
Selected References:
www.sec.gov
www.ftc.gov
www.ftc.gov
www.law360.com
nymag.com
www.chancerydaily.com
www.statista.com
kotaku.com
Meta still got downside to come to $40 JUST IN: Mark Zuckerberg has announced that Meta will be laying off 11,000 of its employees —
an estimated 13% of its workforce — and will also be taking “a number of additional steps to become a leaner and more efficient company.”
This is a clear indication that since Mark went and focused on building the Metaverse (VR and AR) that this was a risk.
We focused on building Horzons (app) and building Oculus and Metaquest. But clearly the world was not ready for this evolution.
Also with Oculus costing $299 and the new Oculus costing over $500 shows that majority aren't willing to invest in this technology or can't afford it...
I do think the Metaverse will take over one day, but only when technology becomes cheaper and the benefits outweigh the risks... Right now it's a liability to those due to a lack of education
What are your thoughts...
FAANG Is about to go higher!Traders and Investors, FAANG index has reached an FCP zone which is also a previous structure level. This can create a good bounce up (BULL) opportunity for all FAANG stocks.
Facebook (Meta)
Apple
Amazon
Netflix
Google
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META Daily TA Neutral BearishMETAUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% META, 55% Cash.
* BOUNCE WATCH . Equities, Equity Futures, Commodities, Cryptos, CNYUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD and US Treasuries are up. DXY and VIX are down. META has now fallen 77% from its ATH in September 2021 after posting two consecutive quarters of revenue declines and is projecting another a decline in Q4. Their Reality Labs division which works on their virtual reality + metaverse projects has lost almost $10b this year . Their operating margin is also shrinking as cost and expenses rose 19% YOY. People are getting fearful and smart money might be getting greedy. Though premature to say that META has found a bottom, it's looking like it's found a good spot for an impulse bounce. The Employment Situation today showed that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261k and the unemployment rate jumped from 3.5% to 3.7% . Key Upcoming Dates: US October CPI at 830am EST 11/10; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30.*
Price is currently testing $89 support which coincides with the descending trendline from June 2017. Volume is currently Moderate (high) and has been shrinking for five consecutive sessions and is on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $127, this margin is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 24.5 as it continues to technically test 26.51 support which coincides with the uptrend line from July 2012 as support as well. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down slightly at 2.72 as it approaches a test of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is beginning to form a trough as it tests -13.77 support. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 42 with no sign of peak formation as Price continues to fall, this is bearish.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test $107.28 resistance and potentially attempt to fill the gap from 10/26/22 (~$128) when Price fell ~20% on earnings day. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $74 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $90.
Meta Undergoes MetamorphosisFor the 9 year span between 2012 and 2021, Facebook grew at an average of 200% per year. Now being almost rested from a 1800% wave that stretched its value from $19 to $359 per share, Zuckerburg and Co. are ready to make way towards their encore siting near the price tag of $2579. A stock split could alter this price target but if an investor were to buy the big dip near $60, I'd expect the 4000% increase in value to remain a high probability outcome for Wave 3.
While Jim Kramer is shedding tears because he was blindsided, we at least knew that META was nearing its peak level and a finish of Wave 5. While I'm not sure of his nor others approach to technical analysis, Elliott Wave gave clear signal that it was not the season for buying META. The morals of the story are simple, buy the dip, don't follow Kramer's advice and SURF!
How low will META go? Meta has broken the market structure and started a deep dive. The weekly chart looks like a hot RED falling knife.
There are no long term fib support anymore, the trend is now 100% bearish on the weekly chart.
There will be fake rallies until we see a real support.
The only support levels will take us back to 2015 or even before.
Look at the chart for more details:
DYOR and be careful trading this volatile markets with any leverage position.
Buying META calls for 1 year will cost you 25%+ interest "APR"Options are leverage on stock, leverage, "aka" gearing, is a loan. The option extrinsic premium is a form of interest on the leverage. The strike price tells you the amount of leverage your are using relative to buying outright shares. If you are not careful, you might inadvertently end up paying crazy high rates of annualize interest. Options sellers know this, they look for these opportunities to help structure option trades. META SPY QQQ DIA
METAMETA/FB is a terrible company. Their attempt to invent the metavese has failed hugely thus far. Their cash reserves are low, their public perception is poor. META has shown an inability to innovate in the social media space. For these reasons I'm opening a long term bearish position on META.
Bought to Open: Jan-17-2025 $60 P @ 8.40.
Meta Obliterates SupportMeta/Facebook has destroyed its nearby support level and has nothing left to sustain ground for any lasting upside push. A relief rally could come over the next couple of years however, the downward slope has already initiated. Barring any rise above $305, it can be comfortably assumed that Meta will look to discover support near the $60 range. Holders should look for the most suitable exit in order to avoid more losses than necessary.
(Wave analysis has been redacted from this marking however, wave-by-wave analysis will be tracked via link in bio).
Technology Sector May Face A Rally SoonHello traders and investors, today we will talk about two technology stocks GOOGLE and META (Fcebook), which can be finishing final 5th wave from Elliott wave perspective.
As you can see, technology sector suffered the most in the last year, but what is interesting is that both GOOGLE and META can be now finishing a five-wave cycle from the highs. In Elliott wave theory, after every five waves, a three-wave A-B-C correction follows.
We have just noticed some big gaps down due to earnings miss, but considering that Google and Meta are trading in 5th wave with a potential spike before a reversal, there's a high probability for an A-B-C rally soon.
A-B-C recovery will ideally show up now at the end of 2022 or at the beginning of 2023.
All the best!
META on the way to $0I doubt the company will allow such a fall, but it has reached our first target at $120.
Looking at the Inverse Cup and Handle, it technically says it is going to $0...
This is when we ask ourselves, how predictable are chart patterns and do you think the company will allow this.
Meta - Meta Platform joins the party! Yesterday, the price of Meta platform stock crashed nearly 20% after the close when the company reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2022. With its abysmal report, Meta joined the party of underperforming companies in the current earning season. Revenue was down 4% from a year earlier, while costs and expenses rose 19%.
Revenue = 27.71 billion USD (-4% YoY)
Costs and expenses = 22.05 billion USD (+19% YoY)
Revenue from the family of apps, including Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, Whatsapp, etc., decreased approximately 3.6%, while revenue from the reality labs fell by about 49%. That is no surprise to us since we warned about the earning season for the third quarter being weak. Indeed, we stated that downgrades in outlooks and misses in estimates would reinforce our thesis about the market progressing into the second phase of the bear market. With that being said, we believe Meta platforms Inc. still has a long way to go before reversing its primary trend to the upside.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the Meta Platforms stock. The red arrow shows the price drop after the company published its earnings for the 3rd quarter of 2022.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the resemblance between the current and previous earning seasons.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.