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Factors

Small Caps Dead?AVUV from Avantis has outperformed the S&P since its opening in 2020. It recently dipped below the S&P for a brief moment before skyrocketing back above it. AVUV is not strictly a small cap fund because screens for value, profitability and momentum exposure. The recent surge in small caps has shown that diversified exposure to equities factors not present in the S&P 500 can be beneficial for those investing with long time horizons. Choosing funds with higher expected returns like AVUV might be difficult when the Mag 7 is driving the market, but you'll be very happy with your portfolio at times like this.
AMEX:AVUVLong
by Mere_Cat
1
In uncertain environments, Quality Dividend Growers the answer2023 saw one of the narrowest bull markets in history, with only 10 stocks contributing 14.3% out of the 20.6% rally during the first 7 months of the year. Since then, markets have turned with the S&P 500 and the MSCI World dropping around -7% since their top1. Looking forward to the rest of 2023 and beyond, uncertainty is high: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached or is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, but the easing cycle is still distant and its speed is unknown. The US may avoid a full-blown recession but a recessionary environment with below-average growth is still on the table. Further disinflation may be slower as we get closer to target, and energy prices continue to put pressure on core CPI. In such uncertain times, investors could be contemplating reducing risk in their portfolios. However, many of them have been caught with an underweight in equities early in 2023 and missed out on the rally, leading to underperformance. To avoid a repeat, remaining invested but shifting equity exposures toward higher quality, dividend growing companies could help protect the downside while maintaining exposure to the upside. Quality stocks tend to outperform at the end of rate hike cycles With the rate hike cycle reaching its end, it is interesting to see what happened historically to equities in the 12 months following the end of rate hike cycles. The absolute performance of US equities has been quite dispersed following the end of the last 7 rate hike cycles by the Fed. US equities returned 24% in the best period and -18.8% in the worst. Looking at high-quality companies, we observe some consistency, though, since they outperformed the market in 6 out of those seven periods. The only period of outperformance was in 1998, when quality companies returned ‘only’ 23.3% versus 24.3% for the market. In the two periods when equities posted negative returns, quality companies cushioned the loss well, reducing the drawdown significantly. When investors get picky, quality companies benefit On observing the performance of high- and low-quality stocks depending on the level of growth in the economy. We split quarters into 4 quartiles, from low-growth quartiles to high-growth quartiles, and then calculate the outperformance or underperformance of those stocks in the quarter following the growth observation. We first observe the resilience of high-quality companies. While low-quality companies only outperform when the economy is firing on all cylinders, high-quality companies outperform in all 4 environments. High-quality stocks outperform more when growth is either low or below average. The style that doesn’t go out of style Investment factors ebb and flow between periods of relative under- and outperformance, depending on where we are in the cycle. One big exception is quality which is, in our view, the most consistent of all factors. Sure, quality can lag in the sharp risk-on rallies that typically mark the start of an early cycle snapback; but those environments don’t tend to last, and neither does quality’s underperformance. In fact, there hasn’t been a rolling 10-year period when quality underperformed since the late 1980s. The rolling outperformance of different US equity factors versus the market over 10-year periods since the 1970s based on the data from a famous academic: Kenneth French. On average, over periods of 10 years, quality is the factor that has historically delivered outperformance the most, often by a significant margin (90% of the time, the second best only hit 78%). It is also the factor that exhibited the smallest worst performance. Conclusion Overall, high-quality companies have exhibited outperformance in periods of low growth, in periods following rate hikes and, more generally, across many parts of the business cycle. With economic uncertainty remaining elevated, and an equity rally that is faltering, investors could consider quality as their portfolio anchor. Sources 1 WisdomTree, Bloomberg. As of 27 September 2023. 2 WisdomTree, Bloomberg, Morningstar, June 2016 to June 2023. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CBOE:SPX
by aneekaguptaWTE
The Seven Major Factors Affecting Gold.Firstly, the demand for gold commodities affects the price. In addition to its use as a daily decorative item, gold plays an important role in industry, occupying an irreplaceable position in industries such as dentistry, electronics, and others. As a hedge tool, the price of gold is influenced by demand, and the supply and demand relationship directly affects the price of gold. Changes in production will also affect the gold price, such as the demand for teeth in Japan and the demand for jewelry in India, both of which directly affect the monthly price trend of gold each year. Secondly, the gold output determines the supply-demand balance of gold. The production of gold-producing countries directly affects the supply-demand balance of gold. Currently, China has the largest gold production, followed by South Africa. Any unexpected event, such as strikes and other special situations, will have an impact on the gold price. Thirdly, international interest rates and exchange rates directly affect the gold price. Interest rates and exchange rates have a direct impact on the gold price, especially the trend of the US dollar. The international status of the US gold price directly determines the status of the country's international finance, and the price of the US dollar also directly affects the price of gold. As the US dollar, which also has investment functions like gold, it directly affects the gold price. If the investment trend of the US dollar is strong, gold investment will be relatively less, while the opposite is true for the US dollar in a weak investment market, where the role of gold as a reserve asset and a hedge will be stronger. Fourthly, inflation stimulates the gold price. When the consumer price index rises and inflation affects investments, gold is no exception. When the price fluctuation of a country is severe, and the inflation rate is high, and the price fluctuation is severe, people's panic will intensify. When purchasing power declines, people will worry about future security and choose to buy gold to hedge, which will cause the gold price to continue to rise. Although the current role of gold in fighting inflation is not as significant as before, high inflation will still stimulate the gold price. Fifthly, political situations such as wars can stimulate the gold price. Political instability promotes the rise of the gold price, and war causes a rise in commodity prices, leading to a rise in gold prices. Similarly, as a critical strategic material, the price of gold has a remarkable correlation with the price of oil. When the price of oil rises, the gold price rises as well. Conversely, when the price of oil falls, the gold price also falls. Sixth, as a safe-haven demand, gold is the first choice Due to the small total reserves, the price of gold is relatively stable, and because it has served as a currency, it is an excellent tool for hedging and hedging. As an important hedging tool, gold has strong political sensitivity. Jewelry in prosperous times, gold in troubled times, when the economy is in recession, investment will favor gold more, and it will also directly affect the price of gold. 7. Investors’ psychological expectations The psychological expectations of investors are an important factor affecting the price of gold, but they usually do not act alone. Instead, they often change in conjunction with the variations in the aforementioned factors, amplifying or reducing the expected value of gold and causing significant differences in its price. Following the footsteps of the market, respecting the market, and aweing the market is to follow the market Pay attention to me and you will discover that trading is so simple and enjoyable!
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by Ice_and_Fire1
Looking back at equity factors in Q4 with WisdomTreeAfter three negative quarters, 2022 closed with a bang. Equities around the world delivered very strong returns in both October and November on the back of relatively good news on the inflation front. Therefore, despite a negative December, developed market equities gained 9.8% in Q4, and emerging market equities gained 9.7%. This instalment of the WisdomTree Quarterly Equity Factor Review aims to shed some light on how equity factors behaved in this rebound and how this may have impacted investors’ portfolios. Overall factors performed strongly for Global and US investors. Only Growth delivered an underperformance in Q4. Value, High Dividend and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest performance in both regions. In Europe, Small Cap stocks performed the best, followed by Value and High Dividend stocks. In emerging markets, Value and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest outperformance. Looking forward to 2023, the same issues that drove markets in 2022 remain. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above target. In an environment where interest rates and inflation remain high, and volatility of both equities and interest rates is increasing, we continue to tilt toward High Dividend, Value and High Quality dividend payers. Performance in focus: High Dividend and Value finish strong In the fourth quarter of 2022, equity markets posted their first positive quarter of the year across regions. In October and November, markets benefitted from positive inflation numbers and increased hopes for a Fed Pivot or at least a pause in rate hikes leading to a sharp rebound. MSCI World gained 7.2% and 7% in those two months, respectively. However, hopes of such a pivot were dashed quickly, with the Federal Reserve Chair making clear in the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that he wanted to see “substantially” more progress on inflation before the hiking would stop. This led the MSCI World to lose -4.3% in December. Overall, factors performed strongly for Global and US investors: Only Growth delivered an underperformance in Q4 in US and global equities Value, High Dividend and High Quality dividend payers delivered the best performance across regions but mostly in the US. In Europe, factors had a more difficult time. Small Cap stocks performed the best, followed by Value and High Dividend stocks but Quality, Momentum and Min Volatility delivered underperformance. In emerging markets, Value and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest outperformance. In this market, Quality, Momentum and Min Volatility also delivered underperformance. In Q4, the market environment continued to discriminate strongly between Quality stocks. The definition of Quality and the criteria used have hugely impacted the result. Quality, left unattended, tends to tilt toward growth (investors pay for Quality, after all) and would have suffered from that tilt, as illustrated with MSCI Quality (‘Quality’ in Figures 1 and 2). Highly profitable companies and dividend growers have fared better this quarter, as illustrated by WisdomTree Quality. 2022, the year of the dividends Looking back at the whole year, High Dividend has dominated the factor space consistently across the year. It delivered a 13.4% outperformance to the MSCI World and a 15.2% outperformance versus the MSCI USA. In Global equities, Value and Min Volatility completed the podium with 8.3% of outperformance. In the US, the podium is a bit different, with WisdomTree Quality (that is, High Quality dividend payers) finishing second (+11.4%) and Min Volatility and Value coming third and fourth. In both regions, Growth and Quality (with its growth tilt) were the only factors to deliver underperformance. In Europe, High Dividend and Value also dominated the field. Valuations rebounded in Q4 In Q4 2022, valuations rebounded across the board on the back of markets’ positive performance. Small Caps saw the largest increases with +1.7 in Global and European equities and +2.2 in US equities. European and Emerging markets remain quite cheap, leading to factors being cheap as well. Emerging market value is currently priced at a 4.9 P/E Ratio. Looking forward to 2023, recession risk is continuing to rise. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is warning of a recession in the US, a deep slowdown in Europe, and a drawn-out recession in the United Kingdom. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above targets. The Federal Reserve made clear in its December meeting that ‘substantially’ more progress will need to happen on the inflation front before hiking stops. The European Central Bank (ECB) projections show inflation is unlikely to reach the 2% target until late 2025, leading to a hawkish turn there as well. The Bank of Japan also surprised markets in December with its own hawkish move. Overall, as we transition to 2023, three questions still remain unanswered from 2022: 1) how sticky will the underlying inflation be 2) how intense will the recession be 3) will we find a solution to Europe’s energy crisis? With markets facing the same issues in 2023 that they faced in the second half of 2022, we continue to tilt toward the strategies that delivered for investors in 2022, that is, High Dividend, Value and High Quality dividend payers. Please note: World is proxied by MSCI World net TR Index. US is proxied by MSCI USA net TR Index. Europe is proxied by MSCI Europe net TR Index. Emerging Markets is proxied by MSCI Emerging Markets net TR Index. Minimum volatility is proxied by the relevant MSCI Min Volatility net total return index. Quality is proxied by the relevant MSCI Quality net total return index. Momentum is proxied by the relevant MSCI Momentum net total return index. High Dividend is proxied by the relevant MSCI High Dividend net total return index. Size is proxied by the relevant MSCI Small Cap net total return index. Value is proxied by the relevant MSCI Enhanced Value net total return index. WisdomTree Quality is proxied by the relevant WisdomTree Quality Dividend Growth Index.
N
by aneekaguptaWTE
2
ConsolidationHey everyone, I am not going to try to predict the market because, first, it did not work out since I started posting, and second, you can't predict the market. In fact, the best way to analyze the market in any given circumstance is to list different bullish and bearish factors, then lean towards the most "probable" scenario, which might be bullish or bearish. As for now, we are now consolidating in an area, and we are trying to remove liquidity from the top and bottom of those ranges, which refers to the accumulation stage in the market cycle. In other words, this means that we will be bullish in the midterm after breaking from this range. We might be bearish because of all the midterm indicators showing selling pressure because of the last price movements, like the 200 EMA and the 21 over the 9-period EMA on the H12 Time frame. Another bearish factor is that we are now on a support level, but we have hit it too many times that it has weakened and it might be easier to break it. In both cases, it is better to act as soon as it breaks this range. However, I am leaning toward a bullish move, so a break to the upside.
Long
by yassin_khanji
Confusing one more timeHi everyone, The last time I posted about how DOTUSDT was going to the next major support, we were still bearish. Well, the first move was bearish, but the second move got bullish (the candle we are in right now). As for bearish factors, we just did a lower low, plus we just broke major support, and the short-term "bullishness" is just temporary and is probably just a retest for this support. In conclusion, I think we are just taking out liquidity by this bullish move and this is an opportunity to buy the inverse token of this asset, in this case, ETHUSDT. Please comment if you have any questions, I will try my best to answer them. Thank you😊
Short
by yassin_khanji
Bitcoin capitulation 2022Since we are experiencing many market factors like high inflation and recession fears along with Fed rate hikes for 2022 and also the overwhelming defi platforms going insolvent this year the price of Bitcoin may not be at its bottom point yet. This is actually my first ever bear chart analyses for the next 6 months. It is apparent that the expanding cycle theory may no longer have an effect for this year. Unfortunately, we are faced with too many negatives for the 2022 bull peak for Bitcoin. Now we have to sit tight and see when we will come out of this bearish zone and then start thinking about the next bull. We broke the 2017 Bitcoin high of $19800 when we pierced down to the $17K level. The estimated bottom for Bitocin in this bear could go as low as $10k according to Garreth Soloway, a well known and highly respected charting expert.
BNC:BLXShort
by altcoinb
1