Fading Aussie strength (Apr 10)Fundamentals & Sentiment
AUD:
Australia has beaten its neighbor in terms of robustness of the economy, with Services PMI and Avg Cash Earnings sustaining upward momentum best. Such economic performance also translated into better GDP QoQ growth paving the way for AUD to outperform NZD for the last 2 months and propelling the pair higher. It's also vividly reflected in expected rate differentials.
NZD: The rate decision is supposed to clear the air around further outlook on NZD, giving the room for market internals to play out, while AUD bulls should be attracted to takes some profits, correcting the uptrend.
Technical & Other
Setup: TR(B)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 4h
Medium-term: UP
Long-term: Uptrend
Min target: support
Risk: 0.25%
Entry: Limit
Fade
Swing fade: is euro overextended?Fundamentals & Sentiment
EUR:
Contrary to the direction of this trade idea, the Eurozone economy has been doing quite well for the last few months. However, is it time for a technical correction? Risk reversals suggest that.
NZD: Kiwi has been supported by good Building Permits from New Zealand and strong readings from Australia at the beginning of the session.
Technical & Other
Setup: TR(B)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 4h
Medium-term: UP
Long-term: Up
Min target: DMA(200) + mirror level on D
Risk: 0.26%
BETS- another crypto penny stock resting over the weekend at the 0.5 fib retracement of a 100% 1-2 day move while Bitcoin trends
higher in weekend price action. Can the price action reverse out of the pullback and
retracement with bullish continuation? Relative strength has retreated but held at the 50 level.
Consistent with consolidation, the volume fell off for the close of the trading week. I will take
a long trade in this suspecting it will do well as did HUT and other cryptocurrency penny stocks.
I will set a 5% stop loss and target 25% or the middle of the zone of the topping wicks
on the pivot high of the previous trading day. So, this is a R:r of 5 trade plan. Safe and
conservative especially since I will only use 0.01% of buying power for the trade.
Will JPY momentum carry forward and set off further selling?Today's focus: JPY AUDJPY GBPJPY
Pattern – Fade Resistance holds
Possible targets – AUDJPY 92.50/92.30 GBPJPY 173.39/172.95
Support – AUDJPY 92.30 GBPJPY 173.15
Resistance – AUDJPY 93.30 GBPJPY 174.20
Today’s update focuses on JPY strength, that we have seen picking up since yesterday’s US session. We have looked at the AUDJPY and GBPJPY in detail. Are we seeing a turn in momentum? Both of these markets showed strength in the short term or sit in uptrends.
After seeing the fades yesterday and today combined with resistance, could this be of sellers gaining control?
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
GRND IPO POP then DROPOn the 15-minute time frame, the price action is decidedly bearish
over the past couple of days. Gauss filters downward.
The Ichimoku resistance against a reversal is thick.
Price has dropped more than 15% each day.
The RSI indicator shows dismal strength and no signs of divergense
to herald a reversal. I am in this as a short seup and
have profited well taking a partial each day. Option plays
are not available. Once the bear trend burns out, this will be
worth looking at for a slow uptrend. So once the relative strength
drops to below 25% or some bottoming wicks and Doji candles
appear on the lower time frames, I will look to take the profits
and trade the uptrend. ( this may bounce up from the POC of
the volume profile as a reaction to support. )
PLAY the VOLATILITY !
INTU: Not so 'into' this stockIntuit
Short Term - We look to Sell at 478.00 (stop at 501.49)
This stock reported earning in line with expectations and reported a share buyback which led to a jump in shares premarket. We look to fade this brief rally.480.00 continues to hold back the bulls. Early optimism is likely to lead to gains although extended attempts higher are expected to fail. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 480.00 level.
Our profit targets will be 421.00 and 400.00
Resistance: 480.00 / 580.00 / 660.00
Support: 420.00 / 340.00 / 280.00
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Trading Chaos By Bill Williams | Part 3Hello, everyone!
Last time we considered the candlestick patterns by Bill Williams(BW). Today we are going to expand the novice trader tools for better understanding the market situation.
To define if the market price is going without obstacles BW use the Market Facilitation Index. It demonstrates how the tick volume can be the market driver. The calculation you can see on the pic.
Just calculated MFI for one bar is not useful for the analysis. We should compare it with the meaning of the previous period. Using this comparison, we can divide 4 profitunity windows.
1. GREEN
Current MFI is GREATER than previous one, current volume is GREATER than previous one too.
This is the breakout signal. It means that more and more traders execute trades in the direction of a bar trend. Your best decision here is to follow this impulse.
2. FAKE
Current MFI is GREATER than previous one, current volume is LESS than previous one too.
The price go in the trend direction without the volume support. This is the sign of possible correction. Here is the time when it is too easy to manipulate the market(especially actual on the Bitcoin market!)
3. FADE
Current MFI is LESS than previous one, current volume is LESS than previous one too.
This is the most valuable indicator. Squat bar usually appears on the end of trend. Here the nice opportunity to enter the market at the beginning of the new trend.
4. SQUAT
Current MFI is LESS than previous one, current volume is GEATER than previous one too.
The market has low volume and volatility. This is the time when the interest is decreasing, we can usually see it of the end of Elliott Wave 1, when the lack of buyers who want to buy with the high price. Here you should be ready for the big move.
Next time I will show some signals with the beginner’s level of Trading Chaos trading system.
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
Gold Retracement PlayLooking for a short term profit on a retracement to the trendline. Today it failed to break and close above the Aug 2013 Highs and there are signs of a retracement starting to play out since it:
1) Failed to break the resistance
2) Reversed from the daily highs forming a shooting start
Looking to hold the trade for a few days. If tomorrow (June 26th) continues going lower I'll trail a stop if not I will close the position immediately at the beginning of the day.
PS: Gold still looks bullish and there is still high momentum. Look for bullish entries after a retracement if you are planning on holding your position for longer time frames like a week. I am actually in a small position in HBD which is a 2x Canadian ETF that has a correlation to GC
CRM with earnings on play for 06/05/2019 trading sessionHello everyone CRM releasing earnings beats expectations but disappointments regarding the guidance could lead to a fade. Price got to 157sh, 100sMA area and 154sh, 20eMA area in after-hours session.
There is a beautiful bullish wedge holding nicely on 13eMA 10min that is waiting to pop. Curious to see how today's after-hours session will close.
For tomorrow trading session if at the opening at least 50k volumes will be already traded and if the pattern will not change I will long:
1) above 157.33 if price will consolidate in pm above the 20eMA and will break the 100sMA at the open. Caution for the very first minutes, moment in which price still didn't really trace a clear trend.
2) In case of price consolidation above 100sMA level only after the first 15 minutes I will trade the breakout of new level of resistance.
3) In both type of scenario for me to enter the trade uprising volumes has to come in breaking the avg volume of the first 3 minutes. Thus RVOL (relative volume) has to be at least above 2.
Also if at the opening at least 50k volumes will be already traded and if the pattern will not change I will short:
1) the eventual pm main low level of support if price will fade below the 20eMA,
2) below 154.66 (20eMA) if price fill fade below 100sMA
3) below 157.33 (100sMA) if price will fail the breakout.
4) In any type of scenario for me to enter the trade uprising red volumes has to come in breaking the avg volume of the first 3 minutes. Thus RVOL (relative volume) has to be at least above 2.
Have a good trading session!
CANN short tomorrowPerfect n°6 pattern. This stock is up beacause the marijuana sector is getting hotter again since its going to be legalized in canada and maybe even in usa but this will affect the stock price in future: as for now the psychology and the patterns beat the news/rumor (maybe we'll have a V price ation similar to that we had at the end of december and at beginning of january). Anyways if it breaks $4 i think it can drop to $3.65ish or best case scenario $3.25ish.
CAD/CHF Testing a strong support level- Time to get shortGood evening,
After a tremendous run, the CAD/CHF currency pair is showing some notable technical reversal signs. With both the MACD and RSI turning over compounded with the fact that the euro trade is getting incredibly crowded, this is looking like a great time to get short.
Thoughts?