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Will BTC Break Its Consolidation Range This Week?Over the past few weeks, BTC has consolidated around the $19,246 level, which is the Fibonacci level of interest discussed in a number of recent posts in the past couple of weeks. See the links embedded in the Primary Chart above. BTC has chopped above and below this $19,246 level quite a few times, forming a tight consolidation range between and $18,232 and $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move has resulted in a bear or bull trap that fails to follow through with a sharp reversal back to the opposite side of this level. See the intraday Supplementary Chart below for an overview of the past two weeks of price action with some of the prominent failed breakouts highlighted with circles. Supplementary Chart: Key Fibonacci Level at $19,246 with Multiple False Breakouts in Both Directions The failed breakouts in both directions have likely been a source of frustration for bulls and bears alike. Each move has been essentially a trap move that failed to follow through, with a sharp reversal to the opposite side of the $19,246. As pressure mounts on major equity indices like the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) and NDX 100 ( NASDAQ:NDX / NASDAQ:QQQ ), with many of them undercutting June 2022 lows, BTC is like to follow suit in short order. This does not negate the possibility of BTC yielding a sharp OS bounce in the coming week or two after a trend move lower. One argument for the bulls is that BTC's sideways chop action has resulted in its relative strength becoming quite impressive. Equity indices have been plummeting sharply since mid-August 2022 with little reprieve. But BTC during this time has largely chopped sideways after losing a few key levels in late August and early September 2022. BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD KUCOIN:BTCUSDT KRAKEN:BTCUSD CME:BTC1! ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
12
BTC Likely to Test June 2022 Lows SoonToday saw volatile, whipsawing price action in both cryptos and equity indices. BTC was no exception. As discussed in an article on September 19, 2022 at the start of this week (see link in the Primary Chart above), the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held their September 2022 meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. This meeting concluded today with a presser at 2:00 p.m. EST in the US. The hawkish monetary policy that has been fostered by the FOMC has put pressure on risk assets for much of this year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell clearly stated that monetary policy would continue to remain restrictive and tight for quite some time until inflation comes down toward its 2% target. The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks around the globe, have been attempting to tackle sticky inflation. Inflation has been the number one problem in developed countries from a macroeconomic perspective, and it has been running at high levels not seen in decades. Though some argue that inflation may have peaked, and there are good arguments for this conclusion, it remains sticky and well above central banks' targets, which in the US is 2%. The Primary Chart above links to other recent posts on BTC where key levels are discussed in more detail than in this post, especially the downtrend line and key Fibonacci levels. After the FOMC presser, it appears that BTC is heading quickly to test June 2022 lows. BTC failed in its breakout attempts over the summer as to key levels. This is discussed in the prior posts linked in the Primary Chart above. In the most recent post regarding levels to watch this week, .786 retracement of the summer rally was identified as a key one to watch. Price chopped around this level with two failed breakout attempts. These failed breakouts are similar to the failed breakouts as to other key Fibonacci levels as well discussed in the linked recent posts. Supplementary Chart A: Failed Breakouts This Week over .786 Retracement Level Given these failed breakouts, combined with the failure on September 13, 2022, at the major downtrend line resistance, BTC is likely headed to test June 2022 lows soon. First it must violate the lows from earlier this week at 18,271. A successful violation of this level will lead directly to June 2022 lows. After that, some of the Fibonacci Channel lines can be considered as subsequent targets. Please also see the update by @Tradersweekly posted in the link below, which covers volume and some additional resistance levels based on multi-year price peaks. This article is highly recommended for a complementary but slightly different perspective on BTCUSD. ________________________________________ Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for this week. Also note that countertrend trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. Countertrend trades are lower probability trades as well. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
2
SPX Breaks Symmetrical Triangle Consolidation PatternPrimary Chart: SPX Symmetrical Triangle and Anchored VWAPs The S&P 500 broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern this week. On September 13, 2022, SPX's price closed below the lower trendline of the triangle, which is an upward trendline from the June 17, 2022, low. These multi-month patterns do not resolve easily every time. A backtest of the trendline that was violated commonly occurs, though it's not a certainty. A backtest in this case could mean price moves up to test the SPX 3930 to 3941 zone in the next several days, if it occurs at all. Two anchored VWAPs are shown on the Primary Chart above. First, the anchored VWAP from the all-time high on January 4, 2022. Price moved above this level in mid-August 2022 at the end of the summer rally. But price quickly failed back below this anchored VWAP not long after the breakout. This constitutes a failed breakout, which has bearish implications for the near term outlook. The Primary Chart also shows a VWAP anchored to the June 2022 lows. SPX's price broke above this VWAP at least three times on the daily chart, but each breakout has failed. This also has bearish implications in the near term. The levels that matter the most right now are the symmetrical triangle's two trendlines. As long as price stays below the lower trendline of the triangle (an upward trendline from June's low), the technicals favor a continued bearish outlook. But there are some other levels that are important to watch as well. For next week, all the key SPX price levels to watch are identified below. Key resistance levels for next week include the following levels: 3980 = two key Fibonacci levels coincide here (a .50 retracement of the two-month summer 2022 rally and the .618 retracement of the early September rally) 3978 = anchored VWAP from June 17, 2022, low 3959-3961 = highs from last week's two-day consolidation, September 14-15, 2022 3927-3944 = upward trendline from June 2022 lows that is now resistance (previously support) 3899/3900 = major resistance from June and July as well as the .618 retracement of the summer rally 3886-3888 = important lows from the first half of September 2022 Key support levels for next week include the following: 3858 = anchored VWAP from March 2020 pandemic lows 3837 = low from OPEX / quad witching on September 16, 2022 3812 = 1.272 extension of the retracements of the early September 2022 rally 3783 = .786 retracement of the two-month summer 2022 rally 3721 = 1.618 extension of the two-month summer 2022 rally 3636 = the YTD SPX low Lastly, the next major levels for the bears to conquer should be the VWAP anchored to the pandemic-crash low in March 2020. Look where SPX's price closed on Friday, September 16, 2022, just above this VWAP after a brief break below it: Supplementary Chart A: Anchored VWAP from March 2020 low Supplementary Chart B: Fibonacci Levels from June to August Rally and Early September Rally
SP:SPXShort
by SquishTrade
6
This Chart is ScaryTraders, As you know, EuroDollar Futures has been one of the lead indicators regarding Fed rate hike action. As the futures drop, the inverse occurs with the U.S. dollar (DXY). It goes up. Likewise, the Fed tends to respond with a rate hike in accordance with the gravity of the EuroDollar's move down. Yesterday, the drop was huge after the CPI report was released! Is this chart possibly projecting a 100 bps rate hike? I, myself, am skeptical but this is what the data may be telling us. Thoughts? Stew
GShort
by stewdamus
1
What Is a Failed Break?A failed break (false breakout) occurs when a price moves through an identified level of support or resistance but does not have enough momentum to maintain its direction. Failed breaks may also signal traders to enter a trade in the opposite direction of the attempted breakout. Since the breakout attempt failed, the price could head the other direction. A throwback is when the price retraces back toward the resistance or support level just broken. A throwback is not a failed breakout. How to detect failed breaks? A failed breakout reveals that there was not enough buying interest to keep pushing the price above resistance or below support. If a security does not see strong volume and substantial price moves supporting the breakout direction, the chance of a false breakout increases. Take a look at the chart and see how the uptrend line is broken with unexpected low trading volume. If there is significantly increased volume on a breakout, the likelihood of a false breakout developing decreases (but is not eliminated). However, a throwback may still occur.
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by BobRivera990
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POSSIBLE SHORT OPPORTUNITYHello traders! We have a bearish Cypher completed on the Aussie-Yen. This could present a possible short opportunity. Not only are we look at a bearish Cypher, the C-D impulse leg is at an overbought area where we are seeing a push up to the 1.13 extension of the impulse move. If the market fails to push higher and we see price break below the zone illustrated, we could see a bearish reaction. This would represent a failed break and we have an harmonic pattern for extra confirmation. Price action should be monitored for trade opportunities. This is an idea not a signal, shared for educational purposes. We should react from the market, not predictions. Trade smart don't gamble. -Rum
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