follow-up of a descending triangle formation on an index In NSE:BANKNIFTY there is failure of descending triangle pattern. When a descending triangle fails, it often leads to a sudden reversal or consolidation rather than a continuation of the prior downtrend. This reversal could result in a period of sideways movement or even a bullish breakout if buying pressure persists. A sustained rally above the upper trendline of the triangle could indicate a shift in momentum and potential bullish continuation.
On the other hand, if the index fails to maintain upward momentum and returns to test the lower boundary of the triangle, it might indicate renewed selling pressure and a potential breakdown.
Traders should always employ proper risk management techniques, such as setting stop-loss orders, to mitigate losses in case of pattern failures or unexpected market movements.
Failedpattern
What do you do when your trading plan fails? Yesterday I wrote about a beautiful chart pattern that was forming on the Bitcoin daily time frame that ended up failing not long after I wrote the post. That kind of thing will shake a trader to their core, especially if they thought it was going to play out, but ended up losing their shirt.
This is why it is important to set stop losses, so that if the trade does go the other way, you will be out of the trade before it gets too bad. This is simply called risk management, and is one of the biggest things that any trader, especially new traders need to master.
Trading is a business of statistics and probabilities. Just because something has worked for you in the past, doesn't mean it is going to work for you every time. So when something like a bullish pattern that you have traded many times fails, you have to reassess and move on to the next trade. Out of 100 trades, that pattern may only work 6 or 7 times which gives you a 60-70% chance of it working in your favor. That's how it works, nothing is ever 100% in this game. So you always have to be ready for things to not work out the way you think they should.
If they don't work out, don't freak out! Just learn from your mistakes, readjust your plan, and move along to the next trade! Hopefully things like this will help you better understand the importance of a good risk management plan.
Be safe out there everyone and trade logically!
GBPAUD 15M SHORT TRADEPrice failed to make a new high which would have confirmed a Bullish continuation move
If Price breaks below both sma's
1st Sell Stop @ 1.7290
2nd Sell Stop will be when price on the 15m chart makes a Break-Hook-Go pattern below the trendlind
1st Sell Take profit 2 1.7235
2nd Sell Take profit @ 1.7175
SL above 100 sma
Watch Mach for direction - should cross below red zero line and red signal line
BTC updateGood evening everyone. Update on BTC. I still feel the IHS pattern will fail. See how the volume has gone down drastically. This may be normal consolidation, but a massive amount of volume WITH FOLLOW THROUGH (not just one candle) will be needed for the formidable resistance above, and to complete and validate the right shoulder. So far, the bulls have not shown up. I see very little buying interest even up to 7k. The vertical, dashed black line is a popular time for big candles to appear (bart and marg simpson.) It is also right outside the cloud and right at the apex of the wedge. I'll be looking for some action around there.
We could go either way. My best guess is a bear trap anywhere from 6400-6600 ( wide range, I know) followed by a fairly decent drop in price. Who knows!??!?!
A failed trade on LSK - introspection Today, I am going to do an analysis of one of my losing trade. Although winning feels rewarding, if you want to improve, there is no better school than reviewing a setup that failed - understanding where it went bad and what would have been the best solution, was there any mistake? This is a personal introspection of how i felt during the trade, why i entered the position, what would have been the best solution and why I believe this was a bad idea to enter this trade. Please feel free to leave a comment.
The idea was simple, an upward channel started early April (the 2nd) which is one of the easiest set up to be trading. Enter the trade on the lower band and exit the trade when price bounce on the upper band with a nasty 4.6 W/L ratio. I have marked few part of the chart and will explain those points in details.
N.B.:I will study the chart and not talk about the bitcoin crash which was I guess due to the huge btc movement (8.2K BTC) which may have caused the FUD - point 4.
1) I can see the price bouncing on the channel and I "FEEL" confident that the price is going upward in the near future and that was my first mistake! Never trade with your guts, trading is not about winning a single trade with incredible result (200% pump), that's called gambling and you'd better go to the Casino! I strongly believe that trading is a long term game where you manage to win over a long period. Losing happens, the question is "can you win over the long term?". This was a bad timing because the price was still under all 3 EMAs (especially the 55 which is one of my trigger), the cross over of the macd was not sharp and you can see it fluctuating between 0 for 12 hours.
2) that's where i should understand that the market might be going against me, the price is bouncing on the 55 ema and the next candle is red. the price is not going upward anymore and this is a correction/ retracement.
3) The price is breaking sharply under the lower band, my stop loss is triggered. but I know some people are not putting any stop loss (although this is the most important thing!!!) and thus will continue this trade as if i was still holding it.
4) A well known case of "Support becomes Resistance", the price is bouncing on the lower band of the channel, it will most likely decrease sharply again after that movement. if I haven't closed my position, the point (5) is where i should close it.
6) Let's talk about the RSI going down, 6 happens at the same time as 3. this is again a strong signal that the price has not finished it's correction,
Finally, I missed the powerful Elliott waves!! Although moving in a channel, you can argue there are 5 waves and the retracement could go up to 100% at that point. at the present time, it went to the 78,6% level and held that level.
What if I was working and could not monitor the chart, even worse, I didn't put any stop loss... The price went below 0.0011500 ! which means that at some point the trade was a 15% loss! What should I do??
Do you believe the price is going up or down and why?
At the present time, i don't think it is going further down, first because of the MACD divergence, there are lower lows which means that the downward movement pace is slowing down. In addition,I can see that the stoch RSI is increasing sharply (you can compare it to the previous ones). it looks like we have hit the bottom. Because of this, I believe that the correction of the elliott pattern is now finished, and price will now reach the 1st fibonacci extension : 0.0016800.
How I would play it and please bear in mind I am not a financial advisor! Again writing it down will allow me to come back on that thought and analyse my strategy! "I will get better!"
- Waiting for the confirmation candle crossing sharply the 55 EMA, checking the the next low of the RSI is actually above the latest low (Divergence), a sharp cross-over of the MACD- then ladder my buys to lower the overall cost of it.
Looking to sell Gold ( XAUUSD )XAUUSD is in uptrend and upper channel line is holding for now.
If price will break it i'll look to sell the retest as described on the chart ( as default right shoulder will be created ).
support and resistance are marked on chart - please note the most important confulence with fib.
Also, this chart can help the traders who think gold will continue its uptrend or those who think it will crash.
Best of luck :-)