ORBEX: GBPUSD, AUDUSD: Trade And Brexit Deals Fall Short!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD and #AUDUSD
Pound Lower on:
- Highly complex proposal for a double customs system
- Nothing substantial or "workable" submitted to EU
Aussie Lower on:
- Tradewar shift, again, as tariffs part of the limited deal
- Phase one not documented, China needs confirmations
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Failure
AUDNZD #Forex #ForexTrader #ForexTrading #ForexChartAUDNZD - Possible longing opportunity.
Last two days have tried to close below the 1.07 even handle but failed twice.
AUD seems to be gaining in strength the last few days of last week noticeably against the USD.
Once i get my signals of a long i will be opening a trade.
Any questions feel free to drop me a message or a comment and i'll be willing to offer any help i can.
Ben
#PipGainFX
GBP/AUD - Overall Bullish SentimentThe trend lines depict the overall trading zone. I think GBP/AUD is in the perfect Buy position and that is just my opinion. As traders I also think it's important to build a community of like minded traders. Let's help each other out to success. I think the journey will be much more valuable . Good luck traders and let me know if you think I could do anything better. All is appreciated.
Note: Keep the analysis simple. It'll save you some time and energy . Just starting to realize that. If it doesn't make sense and you are spending too much time and you just feel it then check another pair out until you find something that makes sense. Other than that...
Good luck. Have fun. Take care of your Risk . Reap your Rewards .
Happy Trading Everyone.
BTCUSD: Rejection from BestFit Support Line and Adam-Eve FailureWhile the bullish fervor may have stirred me a bit, the bullishness is definitely gone with the failure of the Adam-Eve pattern.
As you can see above, I made a failed trade at the beginning of the day, small position, and a successful trade right after, large position, which made my week on a Sunday; not a bad turnaround from being deeply red, and almost stopped out, to black in about 15 minutes (A more novice me would have definitely lost all of the first trade, with a large position never-the-less, and never made a second trade). (Entertainment Only)
BTCUSD Bullish inverted Head & Shoulders formation, NOT!Hello Crypto-Traders/Analysts,
BTCUSD has created an inverted Head and Shoulders formation lately; it is a bullish-reversal price pattern. However, the pattern has been violated recently by the price falling below the right-shoulder's level (intra-daily). As a result neither the inverted pattern, nor its failure, have been confirmed yet.
That being said, i am leaning towards the bearish scenario because of the continued lower lows on both price and the SlowStochastic indicator. So, an ideal position would be a short when the price manages to breach below the $3,500 level. The expected target in the case of such formation-failure would be the distance between the neck-line and the inverted-head's trough; the mentioned suggests a price target of $2,450 (that is a 30% down from the trigger).
Now, in case I am wrong (which I often am, according to my wife), proper Stop/Reverse-to-long on this opinion would be a price movement above $4,100, and looking at $5,250 as a target.
Fellow Crypto-Traders/Analysts: please do not hate me and/or my bearish outlook on BTCUSD. I have no position in BTCUSD; as a result, I am indifferent whether BTCUSD goes up/down.
*Always remember: this is an opinion, not a recommendation*
May the trend be with you
Short entry at trend lineDAX has been lifted off from the 11100 low after a false break down. However, the long term structure is still bearish so long as it is not able to stand back above 12000 key level. Therefore we are looking to re-exert the shorts when the time is right. One of the possibility is when DAX meets the potential resistance offered by this down sloping trend line. I will watch closely on how price interact with this down sloping trend line to look for shorts. The best setup is a buyer failure -- break above and back down quickly below the trend line.
Darth Vader finds your lack of faith disturbingI'm ashamed. Embarrassed. I don't want to tell people I dabbled in crypto.
The main reason is the weakness and lack of faith within the crypto community itself.
It hamstrings itself at every opportunity; shorts constantly, can't sustain bullish activity for more than 5 contiguous minutes.
What are you doing?? Collecting 1% and day trading.
Recent studies show that the amount of crypto press multiplies in times of negative activity , and despite claims of market manipulation, the far greater threat are your weak , trembling hands that hit the sell button every time you see green.
Pathetic.
If crypto fails it is because it failed s a cooperative community.
The worlds premier financial services disavowed.
Of course this is a threat to government , and they may play a role , but it is small; crypto is still of and by the people involved. Failure to maintain BTC above 4k when an ASIAN session set it up to get there is also pathetic. They (those involved in mining) have had to sell machines for scrap but have more confidence in an overall positive outcome than the trembling westerner.
Your kids still want crypto for Christmas. Kids tend to be pretty smart , being not far removed from education, at this point taught coding in school, and may have greater insight than the fools destroying the concept of something anti-globalization.
What is especially galling is that the weakest hands are the ones otherwise subject to a fractional reserve banking system in countries like the U.S. for example, that are trillions of dollars in debt.
There is a day coming worse than '08. And when it does the government will bail out banks again , because the banks are so greedy they lend out money that doesn't rightly belong to them , and when the machine breaks the Federal reserve PRINTS MONEY.
WAKE UP AND DO SOmETHING!!!!! RAISE THE BAR FOR ONCE. No, 2017 is unlikely to repeat in that it will not be a parabolic rise in just a few months, but rather a slower yet permanent rise if you would simply allow it to happen. By you I mean EVERYONE involved in finances at all who can see their reflection in the mirror.
If this was a team , you went undefeated in '17 only to lose every game in '18. I'm the guy yelling in the locker room , because I cannot and do not understand such behavior and do not want to.
This IS a community , and while everyone wants to make money , it is painfully obvious that the self inflicted wounds just keep on coming.
YOU just failed to break a 4k barrier for BTC - forget metrics that is ALL psychology , and it happened because you short sold and ran. Enjoy your short term capital gains tax.
Finally, why in the f%$% does every other major coin have to be directed by Bitcoin? Are people just too stupid to understand the differences in fundamentals and use cases?? One ring to rule them all, and it's that one?? Equally pathetic.
Tax headlines scare you off?? You suck.
Bad press? You suck. Do some research . The bad press is a ploy by big money to get YOU to sell, you , the guy who gets hurt , so that the absurdly wealthy can buy in cheaper.
Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat.
** I am not a financial advisor and the above should be construed as a rant.**
Coinbase and taxesThe I.R.S. has been rather clear about their intentions to collect taxes on cryptocurrencies , yet vague about in what fashion to do so. Many in the crypto community bought some of their first coins on coinbase basic, despite their exorbitant fee's and wild point spreads , and coinbase as well as coinbase pro (gdax.com) , being U.S. based companies have been subject to IRS demands for information as early as 2016. Coinbase successfully defended the privacy of some users at that time, but the I.R.S. isn't going to stop there and we all know it. Coinbase' shamefully expensive base site and their step up platform have both led the way in informing users of their tax responsibilities , yet cannot as of this time generate workable .csv outputs.
Opened in Excel , there are missing timestamps - imported into tax software , sales show up as withdrawals ; in the end the information they provide is not only inaccurate and incompatible with everything that I have tried , it generates negative coin balances , usd balances , unfulfilled withdrawals - transfers , resulting in the cost basis of the incoming exchange currency being 0 dollars. Imagine the taxes on that.
The community needs to DEMAND better from coinbase. If your account still exists it is time to write support tickets, if it doesn't , they hopefully have your history or the cost basis for transferred currency to a new exchange is 0. Example :You bought in this year , early , buying a Bitcoin in March for 8800 USD. You didnt sell it , but transferred it to a different exchange , and used some of it to buy another currency. That is a sale with a cost basis of 0 , meaning it's all profit even at it's current , low price. What would have been a deduction is now an additional , potentially very significant expense. Or perhaps you bought in early , and later transferred your BTC to Binance, where you sold 30 BTC for 18k each. Your original cost basis according to coinbase generated reports is 0. Not 100, or 500 , or 4k , but 0. It's like a gift subject to capital gains.
The IRS doesn't like inconsistencies , and coinbase even has links to the latest , vague IRS doc on CC's , but still provides b.s. info.
Perhaps coinbase should be made aware not only of this , but the possible consequences of THEIR failure to comply.
On a side note, what is with BCHSV? Is it sharkpool? Is there still a war against crypto being mined properly??
How could someone support that? This is about CHOICE , something that camp wants to eliminate.
Why this weekend matters moreA weekend sell off , something that happens with regularity , would at this time be DEVASTATING to the community and future of crypto , decentralization , and everything that decentralization stands for.
Decentralization stands for ideals once heald as canon , writ , and close to heart. Freedom is something that many have died in the act of it's preservation. Privacy , once taken for granted here in America , no longer exists in the form it used to.
Decentralization is part of a movement that would take some of that back. Freedom , privacy , and ultimately less of BIG government. Both conservative and liberal goals at stake here.
Likely your money as well.
This community is based on a consensus of the people , and the behavior of said people.
Don't be scared by Dr. Doom - if his theories ring true there is far more to fear than the end of crypto. CENTRALIZED digital globalization will usher in an age where your secrets are no longer yours to keep.
Don't let it happen. Be active in the community. Advocate , and call out bullshit when you see it.
Don't allow another increment in the battle to save autonomy as we know it be lost to naysayers and propaganda.
This market IS WHAT IT IS , and that is WHAT YOU MAKE OF IT. Right now it's a bloody mess. This is where people should be turning TO in the face of traditional market loss, not away from.
Fear of not getting out is just as potent as fear of missing out , but it is important to remember that Bitcoin led that parabolic rise , and it could have continued but for profit taking , but the position of Bitcoin is all too often looked at as a representation of the market as a whole.
Exchanges need to be encouraged by their clients , if currencies are to be coupled , to ACCURATELY keep up with exchange and keep a rate that is not arbitrage. If you are staying in digital . Bitcoins declines should be another coins gains , not the signal of a trend.
On a Stock exchange , if one stock falls the entire market doesn't necessarily follow , and stocks aren't "coupled."
Perhaps decoupling would solve issues of volatility , but would also incur more transaction fees if a person wanted to move from one currency to another. The "Maker - Taker" model could be adopted if decoupling occurred , and strategy could minimize fee's.
Caveat Emptor - **I am self taught and do not possess a license to advise people what to do with their wealth. In this instance I am speaking about freedom and privacy more than anything else.
EURUSD [Daily, Long] False Break/Failure TestMarket has been in a range from the 1.163 level to 1.207 level. Price action towards support at 1.163 is clean. Price took out the previous candle structure low on 7 Nov 2017. There was strong price rejection following this. Sellers who short the break of the support are now trapped, many would sell off their position when price goes to breakeven, fuelling the buying pressure.
Entry: Market order of 1.16373
Stop: I placed a more aggressive stop loss just a few wicks below the candle structure, referenced on the 4hr timeframe as that is where my trade would be invalidated. Also to trade with a larger position to fulfil a 1:2 risk reward ratio.
TP: 1.19 as I foresee price rejection at this region due to resistance.
BTC <$6K By Sunday?Welcome back to another short-term analysis of Bitcoin! It appears that my area of consolidation marked by the orange rectangle has had Bitcoin hovering around it while we wait to see what happens.
A bear flag has formed that looks to have a downside target of my yellow resistance/support line (~$6100). It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the short term because the green uptrend line has been a massive support for Bitcoin for a long time. If this green line is not able to hold until Saturday evening there is a chance that Bitcoin will be seeing under $6000 by the end of this weekend. If the green line does not hold I think that shorting would not be a bad option until it hits $6000.
*Remember, I am not a financial adviser and anything that you do is at your own discretion. I am merely giving you my analysis along with my strategy*
Thank you for reading and best of luck trading!
BANK OF AMERICA Short
strong elongation in the wave 3, called the truncation in wave 5, which led to the triangle with the outlet down. The release happened on impulse. An upward channel has been broken through. It is too early to talk about a change in trend, but ABC correction will be. Support levels, although they are quite rough. Need to look for the situation
The Escalation Of Failure In TradingThe escalation of failure in trading ! : 5 reasons why most of traders lose their money !
Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom
Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation
Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease
Reason 4 / Step 4 : The "RISK EVERYTHING" game
Reason 5 / Step 5 : The "I SWEAR IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN" lie to yourself
Let me tell you the story of JOE the gambler :
Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually, Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing !
Joe thinks that he is a reasonable investor and start investing with 0.05 lot.
Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing !
So Joe has $1,000 on his account. He has a very good investment strategy which has worked very well for 1 month on demo account.
Joe's projections gives $250 profit in one month.
It is time now to pass on real account. Joe has read many articles about money management and joe wants to risk only 3% of its capital on each trade.
Joe's strategy is to take trades only if a combination of several indicators give the same signal. Joe always use stop loss and take profit. The plan is the plan no matter what ! Right ?!
Joe bought 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2200 with a SL at 1.2150. He thinks that the price will increase from 100 pips at least in the next hours to reach 1.23.
Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom
Problem, the price falls from 40 pips. Joe starts panicking.
Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation
Joe decides to move the SL from 50 to 100 pips at 1.21.
Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease
Problem, the market decides to go down again and the position shows a 80 pips floating loss. Joe decides to move the SL from 100 pips to 150 pips at 1.2050 and take a new position of 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2120 with a SL at 1.2050.
Problem, the market continues its fall and the price displays 1.2070. Joe thinks OK. I move my SL from 1.2050 to 1.1950. It gives more margin to let breathe the market and Joe takes a third position of 0.05 lot at 1.2050 with a SL at 1.1950.
The average price is now 1.2123.
Problem, the next days the market starts a range between 1.20 and 1.21 and Joe wants absolutely to leave the overall position in profit. Pride !
Joe loses patience and decides to take a new postion of 0.1 lot on EURUSD at 1.2070.
The average price is now 1.2102.
Joe is stressed and tired of this situation and decides to put an overall TP at 1.2120. The probability to hit the TP is high.
Finally the market goes up and hit the TP during the night and when Joe wakes up the the price on EURUSD is 1.2200.
Oh my GOSH !
Joe is frustrated ! Why did I change my TP ? I missed a lot of profit on this movement !!!
Joe decides to take a new trade on EURUSD at 1.2200 without SL this time because this time is the right one !!! Pride !!!
Problem, the market falls from 25 pips at 1.2175. Joe is convinced that he is right so he takes a new BUY pending position at 1.2150.
And now the market makes a huge falls from 1.2175 to 1.2050 during the day.
Joe has now 2 positions of 0.05 lot size. At this moment, Joe decided reasonably to close all positions with losses at 1.2050.
Joe lost 275 pips on these 2 hasardous trades.