Failure
Perfect until..... GBPUSDI had a nightmare with this.
Thought I would be extra clever and set an order in each direction with with my Spreadbetting account and with a trailing stop loss on both
As you can see the sell side "should" have executed perfectly...
due to slippage the price moved so quickly it skipped right past my order :')
safe to say we learnt something today
GOLD: XAUUSD Testing Bull case to the limits now,butnot dead yetGold has had a bad day and is now testing bull patience to the very limits. It has to regain 1240 quickly now. If it can't manage it and hold up there the technical picture will deteriorate rapidly, and once below 1234 trigger further liduidation of long positions back to 1201, where it becomes a short buy again. Contrarians will be thinking about buying here with a tight stop, as per comment
USDJPY 4HR- The Decision PointFirst & foremost I want to wish you all a happy new year! If you had a successful 2016 I wish you the same & if you didn't then I hope that you did what was needed to change that in 2017.
As I wipe the rust off of my eyes & remember had to look at these price chart thingys a pair that is on my radar is the USDJPY as price is making it's way to a decision point.
What I mean by a decision point is a level where I would be looking for either a buying or a selling opportunity all depending on how price action reacts once in that area.
It's important to understand that in trading it's not our job to tell the market what it's going to do. We need to listen for the market to give us clues, then look to involve ourselves once we're able to make an educated guess
In this case a failure at this level would cause me to look for shorts, while a breakout would have me looking for longs. (Oh and you those asking YES this would also be considered a 2618)
Good luck this week traders, I'll be trying to continue my daily blog on my personal youtube page, that way you can follow my journey as I start year 9 (wow I'm getting old)!
EURUSD: Short-term Elliott Wave AnalysisThere must be a comprehensive text, but I'm too lazy to write it.
2017 Germany bails out their neighbors DDD- This is what it looks like when a whole bunch of countries have monetary polices centralized by one countries needs. Beg thy neighbor will be the theme of 2017 in Europe. Wait until Germany is forced to bail out Portugal, Spain and Greece DB goes to zero.
USDJPY Failed breakout: SHORTVery apparent resistance level + the failed breakout: short
SL:110.30
TP: 104.47
A great trade.
$SPY Rising Wedge on 4hr resolves to downsideBacktested underside of rising wedge today. Sneaky Bearish. Look out below.
15M TF Swing Failure Trading ExampleIn this idea I show you how I trade swing failure patterns.
This is good for any time frames but lower time frames are preferred.
Very simple idea yet works pretty nicely.
Let me know what you think.
Predictive Analysis of the Next Megabull Cycle at Halving 2016Full credit initially for this chart goes to JoeBu on Trading View. He was kind enough to share his initial chart with me.
This is an updated chart following my last chart on the failure of the megabull that occurred after January 15th. This chart is my predictive forecast on the occurrence of the next Megabull cycle after our latest failure at the double top ATH high of 500/470 . Although all those Megabull cycles might have occurred when Mark Karpeles was in charge of Mt. Gox failed exchange with the use of the Willy bot which drove the market higher each cycle, I believe we still have the chance without Willy to have another Megabull cycle once we reach the end of the big yellow triangle at halving 2016 on approximately July 16th per the Bitcoin Halving Clock
Bearish New Cycle Begins:
Before the 36th day of consolidation ended, Bitcoin washed down $100 down from $450s to $350s as I had anticipated on my previous charts, and the bulls failed to recover quickly upwards above $425 and remain above it to regain the lost highs and break out from the triangle's top. We instead had a series of fake outs to $420s (bull traps) which retraced quickly down to $370s where sideways took over. This sets the short-term trend to very bearish as:
For the first time since 2010 or 2012 the Megabull Cycle failed to occur after 36 days of consolidation
Previous double top ATH $1170/$980 and $680/$660 we have now a new ATH at $500/$470 (patterns are repeating and fractals as well)
We broke down the big yearly bull round bottom as seen in my chart here: crd.ht
So what's next? We must retest $360 bottom of the small triangle and see if it holds for a temporary double bottom and retest of $440. However, the likeliness of that scenario is rather low, hence I am expecting 350-360 support to fail and if volatility picks up then we will hit $325-315 where I strongly suggest to buy as the 1D RSI will be oversold for a bounce up to $350 then back down Or from $350 we could get as high as $424-414. There is also a slight chance that if $300-320s do not hold then with max volatility I expect a quick wick to $275 (strongly suggest to buy or put orders there) then an immediate recovery to $300 and $315-320s.
Bear targets summary:
$360-350 (if you are buying here have very tight stoploss at $347)
$325-315 (recommend to buy)
$275 (achievable with max volatility only)
Bulls:
For now the bulls do not have a case in my opinion until the halving. If I see a change I will first post on my twitter account and then follow up with a new chart when I have time on TV.
I am here to help. Feel free to ask me questions or Private Message me directly.
Also follow me on Twitter:
Donations: 1Kbfudifg5n9DtpYymcL3E8pE2oX4Vq7CG
Where can I register and buy/sell/trade Bitcoin?
Bitfinex Signup: www.bitfinex.com (Accepts Worldwide users)
Okcoin Signup: www.okcoin.com (Accepts Worldwide users except US residents)
SimpleFX Signup: simplefx.com (Accepts Worldwide users)
Coinbase Signup: www.coinbase.com (Accepts US Residents Only)
GOLD: Excellent wave structure, 1180 on horizon.Risk aversion encourage price of yellow metal. Sharp rally started at mid January may be regarded as third wave. However, such a strong move may cause "failure" fifth wave, which does not move beyond the end of the third.
The squeeze is about to happenI still say this one could go either way, but the market is starting to show a clear bullish preference based on the ascending triangle we appear to be in. A break above recent highs would create a good long opportunity and a break below recent lows would break the bullish trend and confirm bearish targets outlined on the chart. I'm marking this idea as "long" because there is simply no denying the probable outcome of the ascending triangle. When it breaks, the volume will come so I expect it to be a relatively strong move either way. For now, though, I'm actually pretty impressed that the bull market hasn't let up, even though I was kind of hoping for a move down first.
Oh, well. You can't trade based on preference if you expect to make money.
Donations welcome:
1Eg1QK5vJVCcSoZM3Cp8dgpJ9jv4tjng8m
Inverse H&S may failWe have what looks like a perfect inverse H&S forming, but the price looks weak on the right shoulder. Breaking $220 and invalidating this H&S is a very bearish signal, opening up to further downside targets, the first of which is at the recent low with even lower targets still possible. In the event that we break the neckline at $245, we can then consider bullish targets, the first of which is $260-$270, which I previously outlined as a possible target.
I have also previously outlined the bearish targets below, which I will link to.
CLF - Falling to a trendline support, then reversalCLF was in a long term strong bear channel that broke out to the upside on a climax in late July and is now in the process of pulling back to retest the trendline.
The test will come at around 14.50. A couple of trendlines support that price and the bear channel will fall right into it.
There is such strong selling that I think the best the bulls will get after the test is a broad trading range (between 16.50 and 14.50).
14.50 is a good buy zone once we see a nice bar/ candlestick reversal
DOW Theories applied to BitcoinI'm getting more bearisch as the RH&S does not behave as expected by my previous Ideas.
But it's weekend and things behave different while WE.
Now, i never used DOW Theories onto Bitcoin and i cannot recommend that.
Still it is a very simple way on looking at price movement and is best applied to longer intervals.
Technically speaking. If we look at the current price movement with the DOW theory, this could be interpreted as a RH&S but an already failed attempt of an RH&S since "IV" closed under "II". After DOW theorys we will go down further. Expected next price range that will be tested: 440-400.
If you want to read more about DOW:
* en.wikipedia.org
* www.investopedia.com
AUDUSD Divergence 7_18_2014Price has retraced to the .764 fib, (most recent high) and has remained in a range just below it.
Price is currently bouncing off the .618 fib and the RSI has failed to reach the 70. mark, and continues to move lower, creating bearish divergence (see chart)
first target is horizontal resistance at .9217 which also coincides with the .5 fib level. A break of this level will open the next profit target of .9071 which is a confluence of horizontal resistance and the .382 fib level.
Please comment.
AMZN bounce off of trend line and 200 EMAThis online retailer topped aorund $407 after huge move from low $40s and after series of dissapointing earnings reports entered into down channel.
Yesterday, it failed to hold above previous high of the day at $330.88 and closed near lows. By chance there is 200 EMA at $330 which Amazon broke down with conviction in the beginning of April first time since April 2012.
My idea is to trade bounce off this down trend line. ENTRY trigger below low of the day at $325.65 with TARGET #1 at $320 where 8/50 EMA is situated. STOP above 200 EMA or swing high at $333.
CHFJPY In Action Reaction LinesThis currency pair is ridden with failures as regards the bullish price action that it comes quite naturally to expect further decline and new lows. There are two overarlapping action-reaction structures in work, both of them concurring with regard to the reaction line. In other words, two balance lines and two action lines point to the same reaction line. There are some levels of support on the way though that I've marked on the chart. We're just sitting on one of them. The CHF is very weak and its momentum is still declining. The JPY is relatively strong, though, admittedly, its momentum has been somewhat sapped as of late just as well. Caution, as usual, warranted.
-----------
Disclaimer:
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
EUR/USD breakout failure Daily chart still in major uptrend but it is more range bound market, so it makes sence to trade tactically both sides.
After it failed above resistance zone pair established downtrend. Broke below previous low of the day means that sellers are interested in lower prices.
Significant support zone 1.38509-550 where i can take some off from my short position, below that i expect to see some follow through continuation. Will measure price action.
Stops above previous low of the day which today act like resistance at 1.38640ish.
