Natgas - Pending RSI Failure SwingThis is an idea of what to look out for if natgas continues to rally into overbought RSI territory and tops out as it did in May and June of 2024 (current year). Look out for overbought RSI divergence followed by a failure swing as shown and outlined in further detail in the idea linked below, probably confirmed by MACD divergence as well. Look out for an approximately 40-day duration of top formation once RSI enters overbought territory, plus or minus 20 days. Be prepared for a max draw down of 2.14% if you short the close of the day the failure swing is confirmed. The previous gain was 29.16%. Due to the high draw down %, it may make sense to short a QG micro which is 1/4 of an NG contract, possibly adding more on the way down at your discretion. The trade entry may happen later this year, approximately mid November.
Also something to watch out for is a much sharper rise with a much shorter RSI failure swing pattern as was formed at the start of the year 2024 (current year), also shown on the chart. The drawdown was much smaller and the target much greater (50% gain) but the short duration made the failure swing more suspect. It’s better if more than just 5 days form the top and a deeper valley is formed.
This is all very hypothetical, but these are the types of swing trades I watch for and it’s good for me, if no one else, to note these potential trades as they approach. Please feel free to ask questions.
Previous failure swing idea with additional explanation:
Failureswing
IS euro telling the FUTURE of the Market? $6EMLooking at the Euro Futures, looks like the market is battling its impact on the market. The more it drops the more the market drops. I am looking that this testing some levels to end the week in a direction.
What looks like a bear flag is starting to look over extended. We are at what could be a pivot point on the next quarter direction.
Bullish Case - Look we have already above the 50EMA and we are holding that so at best it could retest. DOUBT IT. We above the 0 line on the CCA Swing. Since this is a consolidation zone I am looking for it to do it again as the market builds their position to explode to the upside.
Bear Case - Lets be serious, why would a lower high have any upside left? We already broke the uptrend that started mid March so why chase. The 50 and the 200 has not cross for a while. TIME TO GO... Bearish below 1.087 makes sense. With enough strength we can test the 200 EMA again then fall.
Eurjpy bulls are getting weakEURJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Price action: eurjpy failed to make a new high in h4 chart and is currently trading above the 400 hour simple moving average, if price broke it and closed with at least 3 h4 candles below the moving average you can open a short trade until the support as highlighted in the chart, use a small stop loss. It can occur tomorrow or monday, if by monday that moving average won t be broken ignore this idea.
Frank Trader
Enjoy your trading and use a proper money management!!!