$XAUUSD to short after reachng 4HR FVG *SMT+\*SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.*
Even though Im calling short could also long it until it starting, However, I feel like the move to short will be a quick on and unless I set a take profit on Longing it, I may lose out on the full potential of shorting, in which I have 3 take profit goaks.
On a Higher Time Frame (4 hour) There are two imbalances neat the current price. 1 above and 1 below. The question is why do I believe it will strike these imbalances in this order? First it will appear as if that market is taking it up because there is liquidity on the sell side. More than likely it will break the little liquidity point above within the 15 min fair value gap. Here I would expect it to consolidate through the Asian Session but break the swing/spiked high during that time frame, leading retail investors to believe it will continue bullish, but will move back down under that high. At midnight NY time is when the algorithm will take effect. Whatever price it is at that time is what kind if effect price will do moving forward. I believe that after midnight it would slightly drop to convince retail traders that it's shorting, then the Judas swing kicks in. This is where it will run up into the 4 hour fair value gap where there is a daily bearish order block. Here is where to expect the price to get rejected and maybe spik e up to fill the 4 hour FVG, then you start to see the price decline due to the curtrent equal lows where there is liquidity. Institutional investors would want to hold on to their investment but make a profit of the shorting of gold and place sell stops just above the low. As all that liquidity floods the market, the price runs down into the 4 hour fair value gap below the liquidity line. At this point the price is now a duiscount in whjich institutional investors quickly pick up the tab on the cheap prices and at his poinmt yo may see the pivot toward bullishness as the dollar may start finally lowering.'
Additionally, After checking the CoT report Institutional investors have been adding longs to their positions, expecting a long eventually but until they start adding shorts, is when I expect to see longs.
Just my thoughts and thew esperience I've seen from these types of charts and formation via Smart Money,
I'm Testing my students and many have the same thoughts, so we'll just have to see what happens :)
-BodiesXWuiix
