GBPJPY: Imbalance to ImbalancePrice trapped the head and shoulders sellers and I assume the majority of them are now all liquidated.
Maybe we can expect a sell to the fair value gap before we begin buying again.
What are your thoughts? 🔥
Fairvaluegap
EURUSD High Probability Short Trade | MST_TraderHello all.. Watch these levels closely EURUSD is reaching very important level (upper blue-shaded area) which is at a one-hour fair value gab... Look closely and get ready for short..
Do let me know your opinion about that don't be silent😉
$BTC - Just now hitting Discount - Long Term, this is a pullbackFROM THE MOST RECENT LOW TO THE MOST RECENT HIGH, ON THE MONTHLY BASIS,THAT IS HOW YOUR FIB WOULD LOOK. We're just now hitting the discount price at the 61.8% retrace. However, in the market maker sell model, it aims for an area that there's an imbalance in which we haven't spent much time trading within. That would be the monthly gair value gap between 27,800 and 19,000.TRhis is the area Price is aiming for and may consolidate in for a while. Once it is done we should see a return back to the bullish market (wE'RE STILL IN A BULL MARKET BTW) It could take 3 months like it did last summer, or it could take two weeks.
The main thing is that it shouldn't close (Monthly or weekly) below the 19,500 mark. If it does, we're definitely in a bear market at that point and expect a continuous fall. But if it dips down to 16-15k, I wouldn't be surprised to see it turn right back around and comme up to 20-22k and close in the region (weekly or monthly)
around 21,400 there is the median of the monthly fair value gap, also above is a weekly fair value gap, and just below is a daily bulllish breaker. This is where my eyes are set for price to go before a reversal happens.
Stop freaking out people it's not the end of the world. It's called a pullback. Smart Money will help you in developing these ideas so your not selling off everything you own. You need to know how and when the market is timed and what it looks for. 1 It looks for Liquidity and 2 it looks for i mbalances. This area seeks both. It couldn't be amny louder and more apparent
Keep on keepin on
Testing out a new strategy on gbpjpyThis strategy doesn't depend really on market direction. It's mainly orderblock, S&R and fair value gap.
ACRONYMS USED HERE ARE;
BMS-Break in Market Structure.
ORB- Order Block.
FVG- Fair Value Gap.
Let me walk you through my thought process;
First Identify your order block
Find your resistance
Find your fvg
Now you can decide to do two things depending on whether you're the aggressive or conservative trader.
If you're aggressive, you could either open a trade at the fvg, where your sl is either below the close of the first candle or just below the orb.
If you're the conservative type you'd want to open the trade at the retest of the orb, place your sl just below the zone adn your TP1 should be the fvg and tp2 should be the next high
$BTC - Fill 4 HR FVG - Bullish Scalp to Bearish OB - *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges, trendlines, channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.
According to SMT price wants to fill imbalances, there is a current 4 hour imbalance in the chart and it stops near 36,000 (Just below) So I gave it some wiggle room for entry after it fills the imbalance it should start a bullish move until the price level hits something the algorithm will remember, such as a bearish order block. A bearish order block is your last bullish candle before the bearish candles close below the bullish candle. The beginning of that bullish cand will be the bearish order block. That is what I think will happen to this chart. It will drop and fill the imbalance and pull up to the bearish order block. All you need to make a money in this game is to see that possibility and put a decent lot size on a futures trade and trade with about 10-15x leverage. You can easily pull off $either $5 or $2,000 depending on how much you have in your account and how much you want to risk. But these types of setups should be easy to spot and easy to capitalize on. It will act as if it wants to continue bearish after filling the imbalance but that is to get retail traders in the trade selling short so smart money can they take it north, ripping the money out of the short sellers pockets and into theirs. Think like them. This is how I would play it if I were an institution.
This is not trade advice. This is simply an observation of my experience and my training in Smart Money.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BYBIT:BTCUSD
GEMINI:BTCUSD
CME:BTC1!
INDEX:BTCUSD
CME:BTC2!
$APE - BoS on 4HR -Long at Order Block *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remembers price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equasl Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.
APE has been all over the place lately. However, with Smart Money theory, we canb digest where this coin is going next. On the 1 hour time fram it looks as if this is going south. Buit larger time frames Trump smaller ones. The 4 hr time fram has a break of Structure, meaning that the 4 hour candles close higher than the previous highs close. The Wicks do not matter, the closes are what matter. And with the 4 hour closing much higher, this is a bullish sign to the chart. Therefore according to Smart Money theory, we should see a bullish move at the order block which it has just entered. the order block is the last bearish candle prior to a bullish candle that closes above it.
(P.S. I Found a great indicator for Smart Money Markings. Search for "Super Order Blocks / FVG / BOS TOOLS" in the "Indicators" section and that's the indicator, you'll see they've coded exactly how I normally make my charts. I copied the code and changed a few thingas in the codie to my liking and renamed it ICT TOOLS anmd left the original authors of the code in the name)
So it has entered the order block and it can go as far as the bottom, however, it really shouldn't go past the median of the body of the 4 hour bearish candle, which is where the prange box is, in all honesty. If it does it could be more bearish. I do not believe this will be the case. So I'm Longing it here and aiming for the first high just prior the bearish order block.
If you don't feel comfortable with the full take profit area, I have marked 3 price points in which you should be able to safely take a little profit at each one and move your stop loss up each time you hit one of these take profit points here is the chart the the take profit price points
We'll just have to wait and see if I am correct on my assessment
Cheers
USDCAD - Bearish OrderflowThis is the USDCAD Monthly Chart.
USDCAD is testing a strong Bearish Breaker (the last down candle before an up-move for a raid on Buy-Side Liquidity).
While testing the Breaker, we are currently creating a Swing-High. It was forming Higher Highs, made a reversal point, and now making Lower Highs instead. This tells us that momentum was initially Bullish, but now that we are creating Lower Highs on the other side of the curve - we should see price mirror itself (aka do the exact same thing on the other side of the curve - meaning that momentum is shifting and it should go Lower).
There are relative Equal Lows residing below current price which I expect price to sweep through. A FVG is also resting right below these Equal Lows, so could expect the Lows to get swept down into the FVG.
Because USDCAD is testing such a strong Breaker, I expect an explosive move lower.
With this, I will be framing a huge Bearish Bias for USDCAD, for Lower-Timeframes trades. Knowing what the Higher Timeframes are doing is crucial to trading Lower Timeframes with highly probable setups...
$BTC - To Long after breaking short of sell side Liquidity *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remembers price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equasl Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.
Bitcoin created a short term low within a 4 hour fair value gap yesterday. Was suspicious that it would break lower, fill the GAP and turn bullish, whi it has somewhat done already but there is time to stuill jump in as it is at a low point, but we didn't make a lower low overall. Exit Strategy would be a short-term fair value gap discount.
NOTE: as a smart money technical analysis, My chay, lsart is full of boxes and rays, I apologize if I do not have any of them properly marked but the boxes usually represent an imbalance on a larger time frame (4 hour , Daily) that price is attracted toward filling. It has currently filled the 4 hour fair value gap which is another reason I believe it will long from here. Plus it's Sunday, last day of the week the weekly candle will be finishing up it's formation which I believe the price has cam close enough to the bullish order block on the weekly that we should see bullishness, However there is a possibility that it drops into the price range of the body of that last red weekly candle below current price (38,400 - 37,700)
AJ could go below 90AJ looks bullish overall and possibly retracing back to equilibrium or a FVG. Price is showing bearish displacement and multiple breaks of structure.
ICT IMBALANCE / FVG / LIQUIDITY VOIDLiquidity void, Fair Value Gap, Imbalance... These terms are interchangeable.
As a Charter Member ill tell you what I've shown here, is a basic depiction, as I got asked a question on what is an imbalance?
An imbalance, is an imbalance in price, where price has NOT efficiently delivered orders in the market, price will like to revisit these areas, of imbalance, as seen here. The diagram on the left depicts the ideal model of what an imbalance is, the chart on the right is an in time example.
if you notice one of these getting filled, at a place where you are bearish/bullish... well.... there is your trade!
Crypto Fair Value Logarithmic downside approx. 22% from hereGuys, when in doubt, zooming out!
The green line is the lifetime fair value logarithmic channel. Despite all the turmoil, the total crypto market should not drop below $1.28 trillion. This is approximately a 22% downside from here.
The price action is usually way above the fair value. Even though the price action has been trending sideways and down since mid 2021, however, the logarithmic fair value of total crypto market-cap, by definition, TRENDS UP.
TIME is on our side.
So relax, take a chill pill, consolidate some of your more risky shitcoins into Bitcoin and stable coins, take a deep breath and wait to see if we actually hit the worst case scenario.
Frankly, I have been DCA-ing heavily lately. Not much lower we can go.
- @Loniwood
Twitter: @Loniwood
$BTC - Hits Bu;llish Order Bloc- Fills FVG or Bearish OB *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.
Bitcoin falls to the Daily Bullish orde Block. Which is where is Have my first entrance at 39150 ( Altghough I enterted around 38,700, there's a possibility it could drop to the median of the bullish order block near $38,440. I have a sewcond entrance setup near hear. The first take profit will be to fill the daily fair value gap Premium which is at $41811.00 the second take profit is at the bearish orde block at $42,850. If both are successful I will leave a 5% traier to see if it the current high at $45,500. There are approximaterly equal highs in this arera which means this is a high liquidity area which the price should attack.
We are still in a Bullish BTC chart due to current price action (higher highs, no closing lower lows) This should be an easy play, but we shall see.
EURUSD - SHORT OPPORTUNITY Since the big rejection last Thursday, this meant that euro is looking for a bigger retracement before breaking the big daily range that has been in place since December 2021. For now, we are looking for a small short term sell opportunity towards until it runs the liquidity area at the equal lows (red line). Then from there I will be looking for potential buy opportunity.
DXY FVG fill sellLooking to sell DXY from the fill of last weeks FVG into todays market open gap take profit.
$BTC - Retracing to Daily Fair Valu Gap between 79% & 88.6% *SMT*SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.
Price should retrace back down to the current Fib levels between 79% and 88.6% (Smart Money Levels) where there is a fasir value gap on the daily between the 1st and 3rd of February. It should then at least start buying until it hits the bearish order block (last up green candle before the bearish candle closes below it)
Entry 38021.53 to 37450.75 exit 43155.50
USOIL - ICT FVG entry and Buy-Side LiquidityAs you can see, a Fair Value Gap was formed on the H1 time frame, which lines up with the bullish order-flow in the market. There was also Sell-Side Liquidity that was taken out right into the FVG.
Entered in longs @ 93.166 within the FVG and targeting Buy-Side Liquidity resting just at 95 big figure, for a 1:3 RR position.
The trade has the potential to bag 193 pips.
EURUSD - LONG OPPORTUNITYFX:EURUSD has reversed and is now in a Bullish Strong Uptrend. We are looking for longs anywhere above 1.1365 and targeting the equal highs at 1.1480's.
SMART MONEY EURUSD 1:5 1:10 RRR Always use a good Risk-Reward Ratio because not all trades will be winning trades. I recommend 0.2-1% risk per trade and a minimum 1:4 risk to reward.
GBPUSD SMART MONEY 1:5 1:10 RRR Always use a good Risk-Reward Ratio because not all trades will be winning trades. I recommend 0.2-1% risk per trade and a minimum 1:4 risk to reward.
EDUCATIONAL POST (FVG - Fair Value Gap)EDUCATIONAL POST: (FVG - Fair value Gap) 📊📈
Let's take some time to explain a trading term I often use in my TA. 🤓
FVG - or Fair Value Gap (= inefficiency, void...)
👉 What they mean by that is an area of the chart where the price moved past in just 1 single candle, meaning the candle before + after haven't touched this area.
👉 This is how such a gap is formed.
👉 This gap frequently works as a magnet for the future price, indicating a CONTINUATION (bullish —> bounce, bearish —> drop)
NOTE: this is the strongest on the first touch it does, after that it's power deminishes and price often moves back through it.
EXAMPLE: (bullish) price moves up fast and creates a FVG. This area will act as a bounce area for when the price drops back down to this, before continuing higher. I've added a theoretical + $BTC example. (scroll back to see it on the chart)
Hope you learned something. 👌
Oli 🤙
Smart Money LONG | GBPJPYLooking at GBPJPY
We have a very similar set up to EURJPY
But with this pair I am more mindful that we are at a Daily OB that could present an area for price to turn around.
Will monitor this one very closely at the London Open.
Any questions feel free to ask
Smart Money LONG | EURJPYLooking at EURJPY
I have a nice 5min POI that I am looking to enter a long trade from here.
Let's see if the price can return back to where price impulsed to the upside to create a new structure high.
If you have any questions then feel free to ask
Ben
