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Fairvaluegap

$AVAX - Buy Now or Maybe 115-117 *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. AVAX has short term break of structure that is bullish where these candles have closed above the previous candles close. We missed the initial great buy, the pullback into the 61.8% level of this chart. However. The current high is a about 1 cent off from another daily high, Creating a false " resistance. I say false because the next time it runs up to that point it will break resistance. It may break it by very little which will cause the liquidity to flood the market (this area of $127.3-$127.4 is where buy stops and sell limits rest) Smart money will punch through that area to flood the market with liquidity chasing the chart down for a short period, and then reverse it back up hitting following stop losses or shortly placed stop losses. Taking the retail traders out. Happens every time. The real question is, where to buy? There are close equal lows on a 15/5 min time frame that could produce a little bit of liquidity underneath. about where it is now near the 119.5 area. The chart could push below that and spark more liquidity but I have a feeling if it did that it would drop down to the consequential encroachment of $118.226 or fill the fair value gap down to $117.16. The furthest I think it could go down would be $115 where there is a Bullish order block resting. and at that point price would reject it and send flying back up. Additionally the only indicator I use, The Williams %R, which is more of a volatility indicator, is at the over sold condition. That doesn't guarantee a biuy right away, but we're more likely to see it possibly be more oversold to the areas I suggested and then turnm around. As I'm typing this, it got under the Bullish breaker creating a bearish breaker. So I'd be betting on $117-$115 Good Luck and Good Trading! :) COINBASE:AVAXUSD BINANCE:AVAXUSDT HUOBI:AVAXUSDT OKEX:AVAXUSDT COINEX:AVAXUSDT FTX:AVAXUSDT POLONIEX:AVAXUSDT BITFINEX:AVAXUSD KRAKEN:AVAXUSD
Long
by BodiesXWix
$ETH -Buy now or wait to see if fills Fair Value Gap ($3,885) *SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. ETH has fallen into the discount array (61.8%) of the pullback. However there is a fair value gap in this area and I'm curious to see if it wants to fill the gap and pull just below the Market Maker Buy/Sell Model consolidation area that previously took place in the red box. If that's the case it should reach down into the second fair value gap where theres a bullish order block around 3850-53 ish. I would have my entry at the beginning of the second fair value gap at 3873. just in case it entered and bounced out immediately. But it did reach into the discount array and immediately started and up track. However that doesn't mean a bearish order block can't knock it back down. I did enter with one position where it is currently shown watching to see if it will enter the second at 3873. Let me know your thoughts if you're practicing Smart Money Theory. Good Luck and Good Trading :) BINANCE:ETHUSD KUCOIN:ETHUSDT BINANCE:ETHUSDT KRAKEN:ETHUSDT FTX:ETHUSDT OKCOIN:ETHUSDT OKEX:ETHUSDT POLONIEX:ETHUSDT HUOBI:ETHUSDT PHEMEX:ETHUSDT KRAKEN:ETHUSD BITSTAMP:ETHUSD BYBIT:ETHUSD BITFINEX:ETHUSD FTX:ETHUSD GEMINI:ETHUSD BITTREX:ETHUSD PHEMEX:ETHUSD
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
BTC bullishly above Fair ValueWhile looking at the charts since bouncing off ~69k back in early November, heat rising from to my temples, I ask myself "are we in a bear market, or not?" Today, I have drawn my conclusion, NO. Local bear trend, maybe. Macro-level, the bull continues to chase his tail. We can say that the line in the sand represents Bitcoin's (BTC) 'Fair Value'. In the chart posted above, we see it sits just under 37k on Dec 17, 2021. My fair value is found by taking the mid point between log regression FIB .382 and FIB .2361 lines, using parameters which I have found to best fit INDEX:BTCUSD as far back as the data goes into 2011. Fitting down the middle almost perfectly on the daily timeframe, nearly half of BTC's days trading since genesis have been trading at prices above the line and half the days below. January 2015, November 2018, September 2019, and at a few other points in time before that we failed to hold the fair value line and fell through into extended bear markets. With a uncomfortably thing margin we skipped atop the fair value line back in July 2021 when the previous local bear scare brought us down ~50% from all time highs of 60-65k to around 30k. We held the line. I remember those days very well. Where were you? At the moment we have about 25% margin below us yet still, if my calculations are correct, let's say. The bulls can't rest easy. That can get filled in weeks time. Arbitrarily, admittedly, if we go by the previous two longer bull sessions 2013 to 2015 and early 2017 to late 2018 we might expect another 100ish days at least remaining in the bull cycle. Ultimately, it is simply a line though. Impossible to know. Inevitable to find out.. So, let's see.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by calmrat
$BTC - Pullback to Discount Level, Then Bullish *Smart Money**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. Bitcoin is pulling up to possibly reach above the current small liquidity high resting near $50,850. I can see it pushing up a little harder to take out people thinking this is a "Resistance" level but then going to the median bearish order block of $51,3385 before getting pushed back down into the 1-hour fair value gap which is an imbalance that needs to be filled. Or it could simply touch the bottom of the 1 hour fari value gao from the "great fall" last week, and turn bearish and into the newly created 1 hour fair value gap, which is an imbalance it would most likely pursue and fill. At the bottom of this imbalance is the 61.8% (Discount level) of the fib if you place it at the recent current low to the current recent high. This area is also near the 4-hour Fair Value Gap bottom. So all of these confluences make sense as to where it would go before moving bullish. So I have the entry price as $49,160. Now the target is above the current high and it's the next tiny 1-hour order block at around $52,645.So to be safe I put my target at $52,640. See Chart I'm giving it until the end of the week to make this happen so we have a nice green weekly candle. If there are any Smart Money / ICT students out there that have any critiques or suggestions, please let me know what you think. Agina, this is not the retail way of thinking, if you tell me a Trend line and a triangle is going to somehow magically make the price do something, I would point you toward what the chart usually does and that is attack liquidity and balance. And I believe this idea has both. Cheers and happy trading. P.S. I'm still holding my trade from "The great fall" from last week. I knew it would come up but I'm just hoping it comes up quicker because my time decay is killing me on my futures call. COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD KUCOIN:BTCUSDT PHEMEX:BTCUSDT BYBIT:BTCUSDT OKEX:BTCUSDT FTX:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
2
$BTC To Have One More Fall To End The Month *Smart Money Theory**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges, trendlines, channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. Currently, the price is sitting atop the weekly fair value gap. A fair value gap is an imbalance that price seeks out. They act as magnets and can also act as opposite magnets when price enters a fair value gap, they can repel almost instantly. This goes for any time frame, find these fair value gaps and mark them and see how price reacts to them. (fair value gap is the gap that is left in a three candle succession where the candles do not touch. heres's the weekly fair value gap on chart:) Sitting below that we have a Daily Bullish Breaker within the weekly fair value gap. Breaskers are a number 1 attraction to price especially if the are sitting inside a larger fair value gap. This is the picture of the main chart. This has convinved me that the price will have another fall to the breaker. It may be rejected as soon as it hits the breaker. Also you have to watch for the median of the breaker or the median of the fair value gap as price could reach either of those to fulfill its seeking of imbalance. (Here's the 4 hour chart depicting each median. I use a fib and mark the 50% lin of each of the Breaker and Weekly Fair Value Gap. It could possibly reach the low of the breaker which is why my stop loss is just past the breaker to give some room as I have seen price stab through the breakers. Worst case scenario is that it fills the weekly fair value gap but that is highly unlikely. There is a probability. I just personally dont think It will do it. Although Bitcoin did hit the Monthly fair valu gaps 3 months in a row (May, June and July) (Here's the link depicting the monthly fair value gaps being filled as well as the August candle filling the void between April and June fair value gap So there's the probability but is it likely in this situation? I think not because the monthly candles have already balanced and a fair value gap will not form between September to November. Am I planning on catching a falling knife. Yes. Does that mean you should? That is up to you. If fact. I'll probably lead with small amount in that opening price, and add to it iof it does go down and hit the medians. If it leaves the breaker, I'll be out with my stop loss, but then look for another long at the bottom of the fair value gap. Why do I have my take profit where it is? Well if we hit a daily Breaker (also known as a PD Array) then on the opposite end you look for the smaller time frame to form your exit. So Daily Entrance 4 hour exit. If it was the weekly Entrance, then I'd be looking for a daily exit. Get the drift og how we look for entrances and exits? So the exit is the median of the 4 hour Fair value gap going the opposite direction. EDIT* There is a little bit of imbalance between September and November. That line is at 52944.96. Once the price falls into the breaker, that line will be crossed and the monthly candles will then be balanced. This just gives me another reason as to why it could and will fall And I believe it will happen this month. And bounce around the beginning of December so December forms a little bit of a wick. I hope this was informative as to how smart money is perceived and how it is different than the train of thought that is retail theory. We'll just have to wait and see if this happens. I think of how the weekly candles form, the monthly candles, the daily candles, and it's apparent we're ending November on a red candle in BTC. But the price has balanced on the monthly so now I'm thinking about the weekly moving into December and the month of December should be a green candle. with a little bit of a wick. So what better way to depict that than to show how this might play out over the next two weeks. These are my thoughts and my thoughts only. Mentored by Inner Circle Trader, who mentors us in Forex and Indices Futures, he hates crypto but his ideas apply to all markets so I am applying them here. I'll have to sign off with his signature sign off. Good Luck and Good Trading :) COINBASE:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
7
$GBPUSD - Repeat of yesterday - Seek and Destroy Model *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory aka Institutional Trading = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. I keep seeing Ideas to buy GBPUSD and I keep wondering why? It's giobing us no indication it want's go higher. And powell to speak again tomorrow at 10 EST, same As today. I have measured out the standard deviations of the Asian range. 2 standard deviations above is the most recent high. Overnight, we should see the price lower then raise back up. Becasue if you look at thje DXY it is going to be going undewrneath the consequential encroachment of a break possibly touching the bottom of the boxed area then rising as soon as that happens it may take a while for it to get there which is why I am anticipating GBPUSD to fo the opposite slowly swoop down into an hourly fair value gap the raise the prices to the median bearish order block up if it wants to stay below the high. But I have a feeling it will take out the liquidity resting at the highs in the form of buy stops and pull back down very quickly taking out the stop losses. After that it would be heading toward the liquidity resting under the areas marked below the 4th standard deviation of the Asian Range. Here's what I think will happen with the DXY. Raise Above the current equal highs then pull back to the Bullish Breaker. It should be at that time powell is about to speak and we'll see anothjer sharo rise in prices in the dollar. Why? Because everyone is thinking the opposite. Andf if you're thinking the opposite, Smart money is thinking opposite of you. So that's why I think the GBPUSD will do something simlar but opposite, of course. Any my mentor said to try and idea, I'm not putting money on it as my mentoring has been great and I've learned more in Smart Money theory unlike retail where all I did was set my money on fire beliving the herd mentality. Instead I've learned to use many tools such as the asian range, weekly profiles, liquidity areas to form my ideas. It is the first of the month. So there is a definite possibility that the monthly candle could be the opposite. But it will go agains this "Trendline support theory" that I see from many people. Trendlines aren't support. But they do tell you where the liquidity is lying because so many people will trade off a trend line. Smart Money likes to go against those that would trade long off a trend line and force the price short. So I'm sticking with this idea. Anyway, good luck and good trading :) The only thing I think that would be slightly different is that it reachea
Short
by BodiesXWix
8
$ETH - SmartMoney Technique Idea**Smart Money is the opposite teachings of what you're normally taught through retail - Everything is an algorithm. Price isn't random. There is no buying and selling pressure, there is no supply and demand... It's just an algorithm and the candles are the clues*** Not Much to think about except the Bullish Order Block aligns with the bottom of the 1-hour fir value gap which also aligns with the 61.8% of a 15 min fib. the 127% extension is the next high. Too many congruent things happening in the algorithm that this could be worth a shot. Part of me says it should be going lower for the discount price but we lready did that a few days ago and we may just be on a new trading level for Premium/Discount Pricing.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
$BTC - Smart Money Technique- Long at Bullish Order Block ***Smart Money vocabulary used so if you are not familiar with Smart Money Technique and you must understand that there is no Supply and Demand, the chart is controlled by an algorithm. Period. If you do not believe that or have an open mind into believing that, you will have a hard time understanding Smart Money Technique. This is what the Big guys with the money don't want you to know that it's an Algorithm**** -SHORT TERM TRADE 53093 IS WHERE THE BULLISH ORDER BLOCK BEGINS, STOP LOSS JUST BELOW THE CANDLE. It could possibly reach to the bottom of the fair value gap at 52844 before moving higher. So if you want to put a s/l there use lower risk, higher risk at the closer stop loss. and then if it hits the stop loss wait until it gets to the bottom of the 15 min fair value gap. It's going to attack the liquidity resting above the short swing highs at 54750. Then it may bounce back from a bearish order block notated by the redlines above (55,100 or 55220) But there are equal highs as well at 55,220 where liquidity maybe resting and there is a redeliver-rebalance candle, tht is the current high skinny candle which creates sort of a incognito gap for the algorithm, th fat bullish candle next to it is that gap and that's where price wants to go first. Once it gets there it may consolidate, retrace even, or just shoot straight up to the top of the 4 hour fair value gap notated by the green box at the top 56011.0, so thats my short term trade from 53093 to 56011.0 P.S. It could appear as if it is going up off the the top of the fair value gap, it may hit a bearish order block first then come back down to the 53093. If it goes up and does come back to the bullish order block, well then I missed out on the trade, but I'm waiting specifically for it to come back to the bullish order block Please forgive my chart, I know it's not the cleanest thing in the world, but you have to keep track of al the little nuances in Smart Money Technique to get it right
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
What way for the start of the month?This pair made a decent push up on Friday and it's possible that it will continue in the short term? However I have my areas marked out and will trade in the direction of the market flow depending on when the markets shows it's hand. I'd like to see a short term correction and then a move up which will then complete the Higher Timeframe correction and then an overall bearish move. But as usual I won't even try and predict as that's no way to trade, plan the trade and then trade your plan.
G
by jp7fx
And will the drop continue?Continuation south for GBPUSD at the moment, no doubt many are already longing this pair trying to catch a reversal but trade what you see not what you think. I had a clear sell sign from my analysis yesterday and took a sell but only to the low which was still a decent 3.5R. I have a Daily Demand zone marked out in which it's currently sitting. Today I have my areas marked out and will trade exactly the same way as I have on my plan. The markets tell you a story just go with it. Don't try to make up a fairy tale for yourself.
G
by jp7fx
2
Small push has been madeAreas I'm looking at for 28th September - Price is still in the range of initial push from Daily Demand and retrace below the 50% of that push. For me the area its in now is showing a lot of selling - I'd like to see the supply areas taken out with candle body closure but ultimately it's the high of initial push that will need to be taken out. But doesn't mean there wont be opportunities to buy or sell why while this works itself out. Yesterday a Buy was possible on lower time frames which worked out very well. Trade Safe
G
by jp7fx
Liquidity found then the dropWith the fundamentals sending this pair above the daily level but only to a higher up 1hr Supply zone was clear that this stopped out loads with their sells on and stoploss sat at the high. If you trade the Supply and Demand this should already have has you looking for longs as a previous Supply was broken. I said that in order for this pair to be bullish it would need a Daily candle closure above the high I had marked out. We got a clear rejection in the higher up 1hr zone and the drop to around 1.38000 has happened. I still want to see the Daily demand zone visited but not before the price starts pushing up then dropping to find liquidity again.
GShort
by jp7fx
GBPUSD UpdateThe drop to 1hr demand and the price did change in that area which is what I expected - although it was very choppy yesterday on its way back up to the 1hr Supply I'm not sure the drop is coming yet. As much as I would love to see the lower areas of imbalance cleared out I will sit and wait for the right opportunity to present itself. Note: If the Daily high gets broken with a candle closure then the short would be invalid - this area it is in now is a more probable area for sells down below 1.38000 - DOES NOT mean it going to happen it's just from the way I am looking at the market structure. ALWAYS work out what Market Range you are trading in
G
by jp7fx