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Fairvaluegap

USDCAD - Bearish OrderflowThis is the USDCAD Monthly Chart. USDCAD is testing a strong Bearish Breaker (the last down candle before an up-move for a raid on Buy-Side Liquidity). While testing the Breaker, we are currently creating a Swing-High. It was forming Higher Highs, made a reversal point, and now making Lower Highs instead. This tells us that momentum was initially Bullish, but now that we are creating Lower Highs on the other side of the curve - we should see price mirror itself (aka do the exact same thing on the other side of the curve - meaning that momentum is shifting and it should go Lower). There are relative Equal Lows residing below current price which I expect price to sweep through. A FVG is also resting right below these Equal Lows, so could expect the Lows to get swept down into the FVG. Because USDCAD is testing such a strong Breaker, I expect an explosive move lower. With this, I will be framing a huge Bearish Bias for USDCAD, for Lower-Timeframes trades. Knowing what the Higher Timeframes are doing is crucial to trading Lower Timeframes with highly probable setups...
Short
by Bastianelton
$BTC - To Long after breaking short of sell side Liquidity *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remembers price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equasl Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. Bitcoin created a short term low within a 4 hour fair value gap yesterday. Was suspicious that it would break lower, fill the GAP and turn bullish, whi it has somewhat done already but there is time to stuill jump in as it is at a low point, but we didn't make a lower low overall. Exit Strategy would be a short-term fair value gap discount. NOTE: as a smart money technical analysis, My chay, lsart is full of boxes and rays, I apologize if I do not have any of them properly marked but the boxes usually represent an imbalance on a larger time frame (4 hour , Daily) that price is attracted toward filling. It has currently filled the 4 hour fair value gap which is another reason I believe it will long from here. Plus it's Sunday, last day of the week the weekly candle will be finishing up it's formation which I believe the price has cam close enough to the bullish order block on the weekly that we should see bullishness, However there is a possibility that it drops into the price range of the body of that last red weekly candle below current price (38,400 - 37,700)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
ICT IMBALANCE / FVG / LIQUIDITY VOIDLiquidity void, Fair Value Gap, Imbalance... These terms are interchangeable. As a Charter Member ill tell you what I've shown here, is a basic depiction, as I got asked a question on what is an imbalance? An imbalance, is an imbalance in price, where price has NOT efficiently delivered orders in the market, price will like to revisit these areas, of imbalance, as seen here. The diagram on the left depicts the ideal model of what an imbalance is, the chart on the right is an in time example. if you notice one of these getting filled, at a place where you are bearish/bullish... well.... there is your trade!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn37378565
3
Crypto Fair Value Logarithmic downside approx. 22% from hereGuys, when in doubt, zooming out! The green line is the lifetime fair value logarithmic channel. Despite all the turmoil, the total crypto market should not drop below $1.28 trillion. This is approximately a 22% downside from here. The price action is usually way above the fair value. Even though the price action has been trending sideways and down since mid 2021, however, the logarithmic fair value of total crypto market-cap, by definition, TRENDS UP. TIME is on our side. So relax, take a chill pill, consolidate some of your more risky shitcoins into Bitcoin and stable coins, take a deep breath and wait to see if we actually hit the worst case scenario. Frankly, I have been DCA-ing heavily lately. Not much lower we can go. - @Loniwood Twitter: @Loniwood
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by LoniChowdhury
$BTC - Hits Bu;llish Order Bloc- Fills FVG or Bearish OB *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. Bitcoin falls to the Daily Bullish orde Block. Which is where is Have my first entrance at 39150 ( Altghough I enterted around 38,700, there's a possibility it could drop to the median of the bullish order block near $38,440. I have a sewcond entrance setup near hear. The first take profit will be to fill the daily fair value gap Premium which is at $41811.00 the second take profit is at the bearish orde block at $42,850. If both are successful I will leave a 5% traier to see if it the current high at $45,500. There are approximaterly equal highs in this arera which means this is a high liquidity area which the price should attack. We are still in a Bullish BTC chart due to current price action (higher highs, no closing lower lows) This should be an easy play, but we shall see.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
$BTC - Retracing to Daily Fair Valu Gap between 79% & 88.6% *SMT*SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. Price should retrace back down to the current Fib levels between 79% and 88.6% (Smart Money Levels) where there is a fasir value gap on the daily between the 1st and 3rd of February. It should then at least start buying until it hits the bearish order block (last up green candle before the bearish candle closes below it) Entry 38021.53 to 37450.75 exit 43155.50
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
1
EDUCATIONAL POST (FVG - Fair Value Gap)EDUCATIONAL POST: (FVG - Fair value Gap) 📊📈 Let's take some time to explain a trading term I often use in my TA. 🤓 FVG - or Fair Value Gap (= inefficiency, void...) 👉 What they mean by that is an area of the chart where the price moved past in just 1 single candle, meaning the candle before + after haven't touched this area. 👉 This is how such a gap is formed. 👉 This gap frequently works as a magnet for the future price, indicating a CONTINUATION (bullish —> bounce, bearish —> drop) NOTE: this is the strongest on the first touch it does, after that it's power deminishes and price often moves back through it. EXAMPLE: (bullish) price moves up fast and creates a FVG. This area will act as a bounce area for when the price drops back down to this, before continuing higher. I've added a theoretical + $BTC example. (scroll back to see it on the chart) Hope you learned something. 👌 Oli 🤙
Education
by theGOATofCrypto
2
Smart Money SHORT | AUDCADLooking at AUDCAD We are currently at a Daily level of Supply Been waiting for this current level to be broken for a while and we currently seem to have that intent to the downside at the HTF OB. Will be setting a pending order on this trade soon as the spreads go back to normality. Lets see how price delivers from here *** I am aware that we have also created EQH that may also be a target to be taken out *** But the intent to the downside was to strong to ignore for me so it will be a reduced risk entry Any questions feel free to ask
Short
by BenFxLDN
$AVAX - Buy Now or Maybe 115-117 *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. AVAX has short term break of structure that is bullish where these candles have closed above the previous candles close. We missed the initial great buy, the pullback into the 61.8% level of this chart. However. The current high is a about 1 cent off from another daily high, Creating a false " resistance. I say false because the next time it runs up to that point it will break resistance. It may break it by very little which will cause the liquidity to flood the market (this area of $127.3-$127.4 is where buy stops and sell limits rest) Smart money will punch through that area to flood the market with liquidity chasing the chart down for a short period, and then reverse it back up hitting following stop losses or shortly placed stop losses. Taking the retail traders out. Happens every time. The real question is, where to buy? There are close equal lows on a 15/5 min time frame that could produce a little bit of liquidity underneath. about where it is now near the 119.5 area. The chart could push below that and spark more liquidity but I have a feeling if it did that it would drop down to the consequential encroachment of $118.226 or fill the fair value gap down to $117.16. The furthest I think it could go down would be $115 where there is a Bullish order block resting. and at that point price would reject it and send flying back up. Additionally the only indicator I use, The Williams %R, which is more of a volatility indicator, is at the over sold condition. That doesn't guarantee a biuy right away, but we're more likely to see it possibly be more oversold to the areas I suggested and then turnm around. As I'm typing this, it got under the Bullish breaker creating a bearish breaker. So I'd be betting on $117-$115 Good Luck and Good Trading! :) COINBASE:AVAXUSD BINANCE:AVAXUSDT HUOBI:AVAXUSDT OKEX:AVAXUSDT COINEX:AVAXUSDT FTX:AVAXUSDT POLONIEX:AVAXUSDT BITFINEX:AVAXUSD KRAKEN:AVAXUSD
Long
by BodiesXWix
$ETH -Buy now or wait to see if fills Fair Value Gap ($3,885) *SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. ETH has fallen into the discount array (61.8%) of the pullback. However there is a fair value gap in this area and I'm curious to see if it wants to fill the gap and pull just below the Market Maker Buy/Sell Model consolidation area that previously took place in the red box. If that's the case it should reach down into the second fair value gap where theres a bullish order block around 3850-53 ish. I would have my entry at the beginning of the second fair value gap at 3873. just in case it entered and bounced out immediately. But it did reach into the discount array and immediately started and up track. However that doesn't mean a bearish order block can't knock it back down. I did enter with one position where it is currently shown watching to see if it will enter the second at 3873. Let me know your thoughts if you're practicing Smart Money Theory. Good Luck and Good Trading :) BINANCE:ETHUSD KUCOIN:ETHUSDT BINANCE:ETHUSDT KRAKEN:ETHUSDT FTX:ETHUSDT OKCOIN:ETHUSDT OKEX:ETHUSDT POLONIEX:ETHUSDT HUOBI:ETHUSDT PHEMEX:ETHUSDT KRAKEN:ETHUSD BITSTAMP:ETHUSD BYBIT:ETHUSD BITFINEX:ETHUSD FTX:ETHUSD GEMINI:ETHUSD BITTREX:ETHUSD PHEMEX:ETHUSD
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
BTC bullishly above Fair ValueWhile looking at the charts since bouncing off ~69k back in early November, heat rising from to my temples, I ask myself "are we in a bear market, or not?" Today, I have drawn my conclusion, NO. Local bear trend, maybe. Macro-level, the bull continues to chase his tail. We can say that the line in the sand represents Bitcoin's (BTC) 'Fair Value'. In the chart posted above, we see it sits just under 37k on Dec 17, 2021. My fair value is found by taking the mid point between log regression FIB .382 and FIB .2361 lines, using parameters which I have found to best fit INDEX:BTCUSD as far back as the data goes into 2011. Fitting down the middle almost perfectly on the daily timeframe, nearly half of BTC's days trading since genesis have been trading at prices above the line and half the days below. January 2015, November 2018, September 2019, and at a few other points in time before that we failed to hold the fair value line and fell through into extended bear markets. With a uncomfortably thing margin we skipped atop the fair value line back in July 2021 when the previous local bear scare brought us down ~50% from all time highs of 60-65k to around 30k. We held the line. I remember those days very well. Where were you? At the moment we have about 25% margin below us yet still, if my calculations are correct, let's say. The bulls can't rest easy. That can get filled in weeks time. Arbitrarily, admittedly, if we go by the previous two longer bull sessions 2013 to 2015 and early 2017 to late 2018 we might expect another 100ish days at least remaining in the bull cycle. Ultimately, it is simply a line though. Impossible to know. Inevitable to find out.. So, let's see.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by calmrat