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Fairvaluegap

GBPUSD Decision Point | Will the Order Block Hold or Fold?GBPUSD | Smart Money Liquidity Trap or Bullish Breakout? Here’s a high-probability play based on Order Blocks, Fair Value Gaps, and channel structure—one of the cleanest SMC setups on cable this week. 📊 1. Market Overview GBPUSD is currently pulling back after a sharp drop, retesting the premium zone Order Block on the H1 timeframe. Structure remains bullish inside the ascending channel, but there’s major indecision here—will it break above the OB, or retrace deeper into the Fair Value Gap zone? 🧠 2. Dual Bias Logic You’ve mapped out two valid SMC scenarios (marked in red & blue arrows): 🔻 Scenario 1: Bearish Trap + Deep Liquidity Grab Price reacts from the Order Block (purple zone) Rejects and breaks down into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone near 1.33300 Targets liquidity resting below prior structure 🔺 Scenario 2: Order Block Respect + Long Continuation OB holds, price flips bullish Pushes above 1.35260 for bullish continuation Final target near channel top @ 1.35920–1.36000 zone Both scenarios are textbook Smart Money setups — based on how price reacts at this OB, we’ll get the direction. 🧱 3. Key Zones 🔵 Order Block: 1.3445 – 1.3526 🔴 Fair Value Gap (FVG): 1.3330 – 1.3283 🟢 Target (Bullish): 1.3600 🔻 Target (Bearish): 1.3280 ⚖️ 4. Risk-Reward Potential Whether you go long from the FVG or short from the OB, both have: ✅ Clean entries ✅ Clear invalidation zones ✅ Strong RRR potential (1:3 to 1:4+) 📌 5. Watchlist Note 💡 If price taps into the OB and shows weak momentum, prepare for shorts targeting the FVG 💡 If it holds the OB cleanly with bullish engulfing or BOS (break of structure), ride the long back to channel highs 💬 Call to Action: 📈 Add GBPUSD to your SMC sniper list this week 💬 Comment “OB or FVG? 🤔” if you're waiting to catch the bounce 📌 Save this post for Smart Money reference setups
by ChartNinjas88
4
Bitcoin - Bulls in Control $113k Next targetBitcoin just delivered a textbook bullish reaction following a decisive liquidity sweep beneath the 4H range lows. Instead of continuing lower or entering a consolidation phase, price responded with immediate strength, snapping back with velocity, reclaiming structural levels, and rejecting decisively from a key Fair Value Gap (FVG). This kind of aggressive post-sweep price action usually signals the end of a stop hunt and the beginning of a new directional leg, which, given the current structure, is leaning heavily to the upside. This is not just a random bounce, it’s a clear shift in intent. The behavior we’re seeing reflects a strategic move by smart money: first clear out liquidity from trapped longs and eager breakout sellers, then reverse and defend key zones that align with institutional discount pricing. The result? A bullish narrative that looks ready to drive price significantly higher. Liquidity Sweep and FVG Reclaim The initial sharp drive lower ran through the 4H lows, which had built up significant liquidity from both early long entries and breakout traders looking for continuation. This kind of move is engineered, designed to clean the board before a major shift. Price wicked deep into a 4H Fair Value Gap and immediately snapped back above it, closing strong and leaving behind a long lower wick. That reaction tells a story: there was demand waiting, and it stepped in with authority. The Fair Value Gap wasn't just tested, it was respected. The fact that price closed back above the gap, after wicking through it, confirms it wasn't simply a liquidity grab but also a moment of rebalancing. The imbalance created earlier was filled efficiently, and the market moved on. That combination of liquidity sweep, deep FVG test, and bullish close is often what marks the end of manipulation and the beginning of a true move. It's a clear signal of smart money stepping in and defending value. Structural Shift and Accumulation Signal Following the sweep, the structure shifted rapidly. Price reclaimed the previous 4H support base that had been broken during the stop hunt, invalidating the bearish continuation thesis and instead suggesting accumulation. This is classic behavior after a manipulation low, price doesn’t hesitate or consolidate much, it simply turns with strength. We’re also seeing signs of absorption and accumulation, particularly in the way price rejected cleanly from discount levels and stabilized within the FVG range. Multiple attempts to break down have failed, and the bounce wasn’t just reactive, it came with commitment. With each retest of the 110.3K resistance, that level weakens structurally. What began as resistance is now showing signs of turning into a launchpad. If this is indeed the final leg of an accumulation phase, we should expect a marked expansion soon. The setup aligns with smart money accumulation logic: sweep liquidity, shift structure, trap shorts, and then displace with force. Price Targets and Expectations The 110.3K level remains the most immediate point of interest. It has acted as resistance multiple times, but each rejection has grown weaker. If price clears this level with conviction, ideally through a sharp displacement candle, the breakout has legs. Above that, we enter clean air with little resistance overhead. The next logical target becomes 113K, which aligns both psychologically and technically with the next liquidity cluster. It’s an untested zone and represents the next area where sellers might appear. However, given the strength of the reversal and lack of major supply between 110.3K and 113K, price could move swiftly once the breakout is confirmed. Longer-term, if momentum holds and Bitcoin maintains strength above 110.3K, we could see a retest of the all-time highs come into focus sooner than expected. But for now, the priority is to monitor how price interacts with 110.3K and look for signs of breakout strength or failed move traps. Conclusion Bitcoin isn’t in a boring range or slow grind, it just executed a classic liquidity play: sweep, react, reclaim. The reaction off the 1H Fair Value Gap that followed the 4H sweep is a strong signal that the market has shifted gears. With clear signs of demand stepping in and structure now favoring the bulls, the 110.3K level looks increasingly vulnerable. If that breaks, the path toward higher prices, including 113K and beyond, opens up fast. The overall context has shifted from consolidation to directional expansion, and everything about the recent move points toward the bulls regaining control. Keep your eyes on the structure, the volume, and the displacement above key levels, the next leg could be explosive. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Long
by TehThomas
35
Bitcoin – Possible 4h Sweep at 106.5kBitcoin recently printed a sharp rejection after revisiting a key supply area formed by a 4H fair value gap, overlapping perfectly with the golden pocket zone from the most recent down move. This confluence provided a strong technical ceiling, causing a clear reaction and shifting short-term sentiment to the downside. The rejection was sharp and clean, leaving behind an upper wick that signals strong selling interest. From here, price appears to be in search of support, and our eyes are now locked on the 4H imbalance around the 108.2k level, which could serve as a key pivot for the next directional move. Consolidation and Confluence Structure This recent move isn’t just a random drop. We’ve built a range around this resistance zone, with multiple failed attempts to break higher, followed by a clear rejection from inside the 4H FVG and golden pocket. This kind of structure usually tells us two things: first, buyers are struggling to break through strong institutional resistance, and second, there’s still liquidity left below that the market may want to sweep before any continuation higher. This is where the FVG at 108.2k and the PDL around 106.5k come into play. Both zones are clean, visible, and highly likely to draw price if the current level doesn’t hold. Fair Value Gap Reaction Potential The 108.2k zone is where the first major reaction could occur. It marks a fresh 4H imbalance created during the impulsive move upward, and price is now backfilling that inefficiency. If buyers step in here, respecting this imbalance as a demand zone, we could easily see a rotation back up toward 110.2k and eventually a retest of the upper resistance band near 111k. This would be a typical FVG play: price rebalances into the gap, finds demand, and continues higher. Failure Scenario and Liquidity Sweep Setup If the 108.2k FVG fails to hold as support, the next target becomes much more obvious, the previous day’s low at 106.5k. That level is also a 4H swing low, making it a prime liquidity draw. A move below that low would allow price to collect sell-side liquidity, sweep out late longs, and potentially trap breakout traders expecting further downside. If this level is swept cleanly and followed by bullish displacement, it could offer a high-probability long entry from the discount zone. The risk-reward from this setup would be ideal, especially if we reclaim 108.2k afterward. Market Context and Higher Timeframe Bias Zooming out, the structure remains bullish on higher timeframes, but this local rejection is a necessary reset. It’s a shakeout that allows price to reprice into demand and generate momentum for the next leg up. This kind of behavior is typical in trending markets, corrective moves that dig into inefficiencies, hunt liquidity, and then reestablish the trend. As long as we don’t see sustained closes below 106k, the bias remains tilted toward continuation to the upside, with current price action offering a potential entry opportunity. Price Target and Expectations If we hold the 108.2k zone, my first short-term target is the 110.2k structure high, followed by the upper resistance area around 111k where the initial rejection occurred. A reclaim of that zone opens the door to expansion toward 112k. If instead we sweep the PDL and bounce from 106.5k, the first target would be a retrace into the 108.2k imbalance, with the next leg aiming for the same resistance range. Either path sets up a long opportunity from areas of value. Conclusion Bitcoin is at an important decision point. The rejection from the 4H FVG and golden pocket confirms strong resistance, and price is now seeking support lower. The 108.2k FVG is a critical zone, a hold here gives us a clean continuation setup, while a failure could lead to a deeper liquidity sweep toward 106.5k. Either scenario offers high-quality trade potential as long as we stay disciplined and wait for confirmation from price action. Patience is key, but both levels present opportunities to position long from areas where smart money typically steps in. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
by TehThomas
55
Bitcoin - Waiting for a clear breakout!About an hour ago, Bitcoin (BTC) managed to fully fill the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG). After touching the upper boundary of this gap, the price reacted sharply and quickly reversed, which resulted in the formation of a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP). What is a SFP? A Swing Failure Pattern, or SFP, occurs when the price briefly moves above a previous high but fails to sustain that move. In this scenario, the price only sweeps above the previous high with a wick, but the candle does not close above it. This often signals that buyers could not maintain control, and it can lead to a reversal or a loss of momentum. Narrow range Currently, BTC is trading within a narrow range between 106,600 and 110,600. Within this range, the price is moving up and down without breaking out in either direction. On the 1-hour chart, BTC respected the FVG a few hours ago, which suggests that bullish momentum might still have a chance to develop. Bullish breakout For a bullish breakout, we would want to see BTC break above 111,000 with strong buying momentum. If this happens, the price could turn the current resistance into new support and potentially make a move toward the all-time high (ATH). Bearish breakout On the other hand, a bearish breakout would require the price to close below 106,600 with significant volume. If BTC closes below this level, the support could turn into resistance, and a drop toward 100,000 would become a real possibility. Conclusion In my view, BTC showed strength by holding the 1-hour FVG, but after the latest move upward, it failed to break through resistance and instead formed a SFP. Because of this, I expect a pullback toward 108,000 or even 106,000. At this stage, it’s best to be patient and wait for a clear breakout in either direction before making any major trading decisions. If you want to protect your capital, it’s wise to wait for confirmation before entering a new position. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
by Youriverse
8
USDJPY | FVG + OB + Weak Low Target = Textbook SMC Setup📊 USDJPY | 1H Bearish Play – Smart Money In Control We’re seeing a classic setup where price retraces into a bearish zone of confluence and prepares for a selloff toward internal liquidity. Check the breakdown: 🔻 1. Structure Shift Confirmed Price broke structure on the downside after forming a lower high Current move is a retracement into discount OB zone Clear rejection is forming, signaling short momentum incoming 🟪 2. Zone Confluence 📌 Order Block (OB): Sitting just under the 61.8% Fib 📌 Fair Value Gap (FVG): Mitigated perfectly 📌 Fib Retracement: Price reacts between 61.8% and 70.5% — classic Smart Money play 📌 Previous Demand Turned Supply: This level is now acting as a rejection zone This is stacked confluence — just how Smart Money likes to move. 💣 3. Entry Strategy Entry Zone: 142.55 (midpoint of the OB reaction area) Stop Loss: Above 143.443 (above OB + liquidity wick) Take Profit: 139.888 (weak low, previous liquidity resting point) ⚖️ 4. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) 🎯 TP = 139.888 📍 Entry = 142.550 🔐 SL = 143.443 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:3.5 A great example of high-probability short setup using pure Smart Money logic. 📉 5. Why This Works Retail traders will try to long at this zone hoping for a breakout Smart Money uses this zone to engineer liquidity They tap into the FVG/OB, then target internal liquidity and weak lows Clean, controlled sell-off expected down to 139.888 🧠 SMC Insights This chart is all about liquidity engineering: Push up into OB Reject at premium pricing Drive down to weak low to collect stops Possibly reverse or continue trend from there 💬 Comment “FVG TAP + OB = 🔥” if you spotted this setup early 💾 Save it before the drop happens 📤 Share with a fellow SMC trader who needs this breakdown
Short
by ChartNinjas88
BTC Short Locked – FVG + 79% Fib = Liquidity Grab Incoming📉 BTCUSD | 1H Smart Money Short – Premium Rejection in Play Bitcoin just tapped into a nasty supply zone that aligns with: 🟥 Fair Value Gap (FVG) 🔻 79% Fibonacci Retracement 💥 Previous Breaker Block Zone 🧠 Clean Internal Liquidity sweep 🚩 Structure still bearish – no HH 🔍 1. Market Structure Breakdown Price broke down aggressively from the top (early signs of redistribution) We’re now retesting the FVG + OB zone No candle close above the Strong High = still valid bearish context 🧱 2. Zone Confluence 📍 FVG (Fair Value Gap): Imbalance created during impulsive sell-off 📍 OB + Breaker: Strong resistance holding inside 70.5%–79% retracement 📍 Strong High: Still protected 📍 Weak Low: Below = prime target for liquidity sweep Price kissed the edge of that 79% Fib and immediately rejected = 🔥 confidence for a swing short 🎯 3. Trade Plan Entry: Around 110,800 (inside FVG zone) Stop Loss: Above 112,400 (Strong High) Take Profit: 105,248 (below Weak Low liquidity) ⚖️ 4. RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio) 📥 Entry: 110,800 🔒 SL: 112,400 💰 TP: 105,248 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:3.5 Solid asymmetric setup with clearly defined structure, inducement, and imbalance = Smart Money textbook trade. 📉 5. Why This Works Retail longs are entering late = exit liquidity for big players Price filled the FVG but failed to break structure Weak low below is clean AF, likely to be swept for continuation 1H/4H alignment = high conviction short 💬 Type "SHORTED BTC 💥" if you saw this setup before the drop! 📌 Bookmark this – confluence stacking is how you win consistently 👊 Share this with someone still buying the top 📈🙃
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
Fair Value Gap (FVG) in Crypto: The Complete Guide🔸Introduction: In financial markets in general—and the crypto market in particular—understanding market liquidity and imbalance zones is essential for building successful trading strategies. One of the most prominent modern price analysis concepts, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) framework, is the Fair Value Gap (FVG). This refers to a price imbalance between buyers and sellers. 🔸What is the Fair Value Gap (FVG)? A Fair Value Gap is an area on the price chart that shows an imbalance between supply and demand. It occurs when the price moves rapidly in one direction without being fairly traded within a balanced price range. This usually happens due to the entry of large players or “smart money,” creating a gap between three consecutive candlesticks on the chart. Classic Bullish FVG Setup: Candle 1: A bearish or neutral candle. Candle 2: A strong bullish candle (usually large). Candle 3: A bullish or neutral candle. 🔸Where is the Gap? The gap lies between the high of candle 1 and the low of candle 3. If candle 3 does not touch the high of candle 1, an unfilled price gap (FVG) is present. 🔸How is FVG Used in Market Analysis? Traders use Fair Value Gaps as potential areas for: Entering trades when the price returns to retest the gap. Identifying zones of institutional interest. Setting potential targets for price movement. 🔸Common Scenario: If a strong bullish candle creates a Fair Value Gap, the price often returns later to retest that gap before continuing its upward movement. The gap can be considered "delayed demand" or "delayed supply". 🔸🔸Types of FVG:🔸🔸 🔸Bullish FVG: Indicates strong buying pressure. The price is expected to return to the gap, then bounce upwards. 🔸Bearish FVG: Indicates strong selling pressure. The price is expected to return to the gap, then continue downward. 🔸Relationship Between FVG and Liquidity: Fair Value Gaps are often linked to untapped liquidity zones, where buy or sell orders have not yet been fulfilled. When the price returns to these areas: Institutional orders are activated. The price is pushed again in the primary direction. 🔸How to Trade Using FVG (Simple Entry Plan): Steps: Identify the overall trend (bullish or bearish). Observe the formation of an FVG in the same direction. Wait for the price to return and test the gap. Look for entry confirmation (like a reversal candle or a supporting indicator). Set your stop loss below or above the gap. Take profit at a previous structure level or the next FVG. 🔸🔸Real-World Examples (Simplified):🔸🔸 🔸Bullish Example: A strong bullish candle appears on BTC/USD. A gap forms between $74K and $80K. The price rises to $108K, then returns to 74K$ (inside the gap). From there, it begins to rise again. 🔸Important Tips When Using FVG: Don’t rely on FVGs alone—combine them with: -Market Structure. -Support and resistance zones. -Confirmation indicators like RSI or Volume Profile. -Best used on higher timeframes (15m, 1H, 4H, Daily). -The gap can be filled the same day or after days/weeks. 🔸Conclusion The Fair Value Gap is a powerful analytical tool used to identify zones of institutional interest. It plays a key role in the toolset of professional traders who follow smart money principles. By mastering this concept, traders can improve entry and exit timing, reduce risk, and increase their chances of success. Best regards Ceciliones🎯
Education
by ceciliones
35
GOLD Short Setup – OB Rejection + FVG Play to Weak Low 📉 XAUUSD | 4H Short Setup – Classic Smart Money Reversal Zone Gold is giving us a prime reversal opportunity off a stacked supply zone, aligning with: 🔵 79% Fibonacci Retracement 🟪 High-Timeframe Order Block (OB) 🚫 Failure to create a new high (bearish intent confirmed) Let’s break it down: 🔻 1. Price Structure Insight Clean swing high printed near 3400 Retraced down to a discount zone, then sharply reversed Price now tapping into a premium supply zone between 70.5% – 79% Fib 🟣 2. Key Zone Confluence 📍 Order Block: The final up-candle before a massive drop = institutional sell zone 📍 Fibonacci Levels: 70.5%–79% = premium sell levels 📍 Internal Liquidity: Price swept local highs before stalling 📍 Strong High Above: Untouched = inducement for future sweep (or rejection fuel) Everything screams Smart Money Sell Setup 📉 🎯 3. Trade Idea Sell Entry: Around 3,348 Stop Loss: Above OB & Strong High ~ 3,390 Take Profit: 3,120 (clear weak low = liquidity pool) ⚖️ 4. Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) 📥 Entry: 3,348 🔒 SL: 3,390 💰 TP: 3,120 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:5.4 Perfect textbook SMC setup—high confluence + asymmetric RRR = 🔑 🧠 5. Why This Setup Works Retail traders are lured into longs after bullish push Smart Money taps OB, rejects hard at premium Target: internal liquidity resting at weak low (3120) This creates a controlled sell-off that avoids grabbing the strong high 🟢 Drop a “GOLDEN SHORT 🪙💥” if you caught this setup before the crowd 💾 Save it for reference – this is how institutions trap liquidity 📤 Share with your trading fam — this setup is 🔥🔥🔥
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
"GBPUSD Ready for the Kill After Premium Zone Reaction!"⚡ GBPUSD Analysis - 1H Timeframe | April 28, 2025 📈 What's Happening: GBPUSD just tapped deep into the Premium Zone while simultaneously reacting off a clean Fair Value Gap (FVG). Signs of bearish rejection are stacking up — Smart Money might be preparing for the kill shot! 🎯 🚨 Key Levels Highlighted: Strong High = Major invalidation (~1.34317). Premium Zone = Where sellers ideally step in. Fair Value Gap (FVG) = Where price imbalance triggered a reaction. Weak Low = Major liquidity target (~1.32036). 🧠 Key Observations: Price filled the FVG and immediately showed a reaction = sign of Smart Money stepping in. Strong High untouched = still valid for bearish play. Weak Low + Sell Side Liquidity = magnets below. 🎯 2-SCENARIO PLAN: Plan A — Short Setup (Primary Bias): ✅ Look for bearish confirmation via M15 or M5 structure shift. ✅ Ideal entry around Premium/FVG zone. ✅ TP1 = Minor structure lows around 1.33000. TP2 = Full Weak Low sweep (~1.32036). ✅ SL = Above Strong High (~1.34317). Plan B — Invalidated if: ✅ Strong High is broken impulsively = setup failed. No chasing! 📊 Risk Management Tip: "Fair Value Gap reactions inside Premium = sniper-level setups. Focus on confirmations, not assumptions." 🧘‍♂️ Summary: ✅ Premium Tap ✅ FVG Fill ✅ Bearish Reaction ✅ Weak Low Target Patience = Power. This could be the sniper setup you've been waiting for! 🔥 ➡️ Save this playbook. ➡️ Comment "SNIPE THE GAP" if you're setting the trap! 🎯
Short
by ChartNinjas88
USDJPY Just Flipped — Liquidity Has a New Target🧠 Smart Money Breakdown: USDJPY | 15-Min Chart We’ve got a textbook bearish reversal setup forming right now on USDJPY, and Smart Money traders are paying close attention. 🔄 1. Change of Character (ChoCh) The first key sign was a ChoCh, which flipped the internal structure from bullish to bearish. This signals a potential shift in market control from buyers to sellers — Smart Money often initiates big moves after such a flip. 🟫 2. Bearish Order Block + Rejection Wick Price pulled back right into a fresh bearish Order Block (OB) around the 148.056–148.337 zone. This OB lines up perfectly with the upper trendline + internal liquidity area. Price is now rejecting hard from this level, signaling Smart Money sell-side pressure. 🕳 3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Below Below current price lies a clean FVG, serving as a magnet for price. Smart Money often targets these imbalances to rebalance the market. The gap extends from around 146.200 to 147.400 — with Sell Side Liquidity resting right below at 145.872. That’s the likely kill zone. 💀 📐 4. Trade Setup (R:R Approx. 3.5:1) 🔼 Entry Zone: 147.980–148.050 (inside OB) ❌ Stop Loss: Just above OB: 148.400 ✅ Target: 145.872 (Sell Side Liquidity sweep) Perfect for swing traders and intraday SMC setups. 📊 Strategy: Look for: Bearish engulfing candle confirmation Break of minor internal low (lower TF BOS) Entry on OB rejection with tight SL above high Bonus: Enter partials on FVG fill, hold runner to liquidity. 📎 Confluences: ✅ ChoCh confirmed ✅ Bearish OB ✅ Price rejecting from premium zone ✅ FVG below = imbalance magnet ✅ Sell-side liquidity clearly marked ⚠️ Risk Reminder: Let price show intent before jumping in Use confirmation, not assumption Trade what the chart says, not what you hope 🔚 Summary: Smart Money has flipped the script. With a strong ChoCh, OB rejection, and an FVG inviting price lower, this setup screams bearish continuation. 🔻 Expecting a clean run into liquidity. Stay sharp. 🧠 💬 Drop a “💀” if you’re eyeing the same setup. 📈 Follow for more clean SMC plays weekly.
Short
by ChartNinjas88
2
Gold (XAUUSD) Primed to ExplodeGold is looking ultra-reactive right now and ready to pop. This is textbook SMC with a clean roadmap. 🔍 Market Narrative: Price action shows a series of equal highs + trendline liquidity sweeps, followed by a deep sell-off into a premium demand zone. What makes this setup powerful is how it: Swept internal liquidity below structure Tapped a strong low while entering a discount OB zone Respected FVG (Fair Value Gap) sitting right in the golden zone (61.8–70.5%) 📍 Key Confluences: ✅ Triple inducement zones (yellow circles = retail trap triggers) ✅ Perfect bounce off the strong low (3,298.783) ✅ Price projected to react off FVG and then target the weak high + buy-side liquidity ✅ Target aligned with a -27% Fibonacci extension, i.e., 3,369.600 📈 Price Roadmap: Current PA pushing up to break the Weak High Slight retrace or reaction from the Fair Value Gap Continuation bullish leg towards Buy-Side Liquidity: 3,345.470 Final extended TP at 3,369.600 🎯 Trade Plan (Long Idea): Entry: Upon retrace into FVG (ideally between 3,314.560 – 3,312.046) Stop Loss: Below the strong low (~3,298.783) TP1: Weak High → 3,330s TP2: Buy-side liquidity sweep → 3,345.470 TP3: Fib extension at → 3,369.600 RRR: Solid 1:4+ potential 🧠 Institutional Insight: Smart Money is using retail trendline breakouts and fake resistance levels to stack orders before the real move. This play is all about accumulation + imbalance correction + liquidity run. 💬 If you’re watching Gold, drop a 🔐 or “XAU MOVE” in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ChartNinjas88
Bitcoin - Bulls vs Bears: $106k or New ATH?Bitcoin saw a sharp and aggressive drop following Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of a 50% tariff on EU imports. The sudden macro shock triggered broad risk-off flows, with BTC quickly selling off from local highs near 111.3K and tapping into a key fair value gap around 107.5K. Although we’ve seen a short-term bounce since that low, it’s not a convincing bullish reversal. Momentum remains fragile, and the overall structure still favors caution as we trade within a compression zone formed post-drop. Key Technical Zones We’re currently trapped between two major 1H fair value gaps that serve as clear boundaries for market direction. The lower zone around 107.5K has provided temporary support, acting as a reaction point after the dump. This FVG was left behind during the early-May rally and is now being tested for the first time. On the flip side, price was rejected earlier today from the upper 1H FVG at 109.8K to 110.7K, which previously served as the base of the last breakdown candle. That rejection confirms sellers are active at that level, and it’s now acting as resistance. We’re essentially in a deadlock between demand and supply, and the next break will determine directional bias for the next major leg. Bullish Scenario If bulls can reclaim the 109.8K–110.7K area with strength and close above it convincingly, that would indicate demand has absorbed the supply in that zone. Ideally, we’d want to see a clear bullish displacement to confirm strength, not just a weak grind. In that scenario, BTC could make its way back toward the previous highs and retest the higher resistance zone around 112K. This level lines up with a larger supply zone and could become a key magnet if the market shifts risk-on again or if shorts begin to unwind. Bearish Scenario On the flip side, if BTC fails to hold the lower FVG and breaks below 109K with a strong bearish candle or wick rejection from the upper range, it opens the door for further downside. The next target would be the clean liquidity pool near 106K, which is supported by a price inefficiency and unmitigated demand just below. This level also aligns with prior consolidation structure and would be a logical place for a deeper retracement following the news-driven shakeout. Market Context and Decision Point This is a compression structure formed after a high-volatility event, so it’s important not to get trapped in the middle of the range. Price is coiling between two well-defined FVGs, and whichever one gives way will likely trigger the next expansion move. Look for signs of displacement impulsive candles, clean breaks, and follow-through, to validate which side is in control. Until then, patience is key. Let price choose the path and then follow the momentum. Price Target and Expectations ✅ Break and hold above resistance FVG → target 112K 🚩 Break and lose the support FVG → target 106K Conclusion Bitcoin is stuck in a tight battle between bulls and bears following a heavy news-driven drop. The current 1H FVG range offers a textbook breakout setup, with both sides clearly defined. This is not the time to force trades inside the chop. Wait for a clean break, then position for the follow-through. The resolution of this range will likely dictate direction soon, especially as the market continues to digest the macro developments. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
by TehThomas
74
ETHUSD Bearish Trap Unfolding: FVG Fill Targets Sell-Side Liq!🚨 ETHUSD – Smart Money Bearish Setup (30-Min Timeframe) Ethereum just gave us a beautiful SMC reversal setup after a short-term range liquidity sweep. Let’s break this down so you don’t miss the next leg. 👇 🔍 1. Structural Liquidity Sweep A clean grab above internal highs pushed price into a well-defined premium zone where both Order Block (OB) and Fair Value Gap (FVG) reside. It’s not a bullish breakout – it's a liquidity trap. The strong high at ~$2,566 hasn’t been breached, meaning structure still leans bearish. 🟪 2. Order Block Reaction Zone Price is tapping directly into a bearish Order Block zone (~$2,559–2,566), showing hesitation and rejection candles. 💥 OB rejection confirmed with wicks and short-body closes 🔻 Follow-through expected down to clean up inefficiencies below This is where Smart Money quietly enters short – right before the crowd realizes it wasn’t a real breakout. 🟦 3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Below Price A large FVG zone (~$2,553–2,503) is waiting to be filled. This is textbook Smart Money behavior – price rallies into premium, rejects OB, and aggressively seeks to rebalance inefficiency below. 📉 4. Weak Low & Sell-Side Liquidity Below $2,530 lies a Weak Low, likely to be swept as price seeks out Sell-Side Liquidity. Final target sits at ~$2,487, right before the broader demand re-enters. This is a liquidity vacuum move: Price is engineered to sweep internal liquidity → break structure → mitigate deeper imbalance. 🎯 5. Trade Setup Breakdown 📍 Short Entry Zone: $2,555–2,566 (OB + trendline + FVG rejection) 🔐 Stop Loss: Above $2,570 (structure break level) 🎯 Take Profit Zones: TP1: $2,530 (Weak Low sweep) TP2: $2,503 (FVG base) TP3: $2,487 (Sell-Side Liquidity) ⚖️ Risk:Reward Ratio – 1:3 or better 💡 Bonus: Add trailing stop after TP1 for locked-in gains 🧠 Market Psychology Lesson: Retail sees a breakout of range = FOMO buys Smart Money sees trapped longs = entry fuel for bearish move Weak lows = targets Your job = be the hunter, not the hunted. 🎯 ✅ Summary: ETHUSD is setting up for a classic bearish SMC reversal. Price tapped the OB, respected structure, and is showing a roadmap toward Sell-Side Liquidity below $2,500. Don’t fade the confluence: Premium OB + FVG Rejection wick confirmations Weak low + clean internal liquidity targets ⚠️ Keep emotions out, follow the setup, manage risk like a sniper. 💬 Type “ETH ON LOCK” if you’re tracking this beast with precision. Tag your trading squad!
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
2
BTCUSD Smart Money Reversal: OB + FVG Trap Targets Weak Lows🚨 BTCUSD Smart Money Concept Alert (30-Min Timeframe) A classic bearish setup is unfolding on Bitcoin, and it’s screaming trap + reversal for anyone watching closely. Here’s why this could be your high-probability short of the week… 👇 🔍 1. Liquidity Sweep at Key High We just saw a clean sweep of prior swing highs near 108,400 – a clear signal that Smart Money has hunted liquidity above weak retail stops. That big push into the premium zone? Not real demand. It’s engineered manipulation. 🔧 📉 2. Premium OB + FVG Confluence Price has just tapped into a juicy confluence zone: 🔲 Order Block @ ~108,400–108,494 🟦 Fair Value Gap (FVG) imbalance sits right below 🎯 All aligning with 61.8–79% Fib retracement from the prior bearish leg This is where Smart Money institutions enter the party. Look left: it’s the same game played again and again. Trap the highs, fill the imbalance, then dump. 🔄 3. Reversal Evidence Already In Play A bearish reaction candle confirms rejection from this OB zone. The wick shows aggression – a clear sign of selling pressure stepping in at the premium. Expectations now shift from retracement to trend continuation toward unmitigated demand zones below. 🧠 4. Weak Low & Liquidity Engineering Below current price lies a weak low around 107,300 – that’s your magnet. Price needs to sweep that inefficiency, and the structure suggests liquidity vacuum mode is active. Key zone targets: 🟨 First TP: 107,800 (FVG base) 🟨 Second TP: 107,300 (weak low sweep) 🔻 Final TP: 106,832 (full mitigation zone = 1400+ pip potential) 🎯 5. Execution Plan 💼 Smart Entry: Entry zone is anywhere from 108,250 to 108,490 (OB + FVG overlap) SL above 108,600 (structure invalidation) 📊 Targets: TP1 – 107,800 TP2 – 107,300 TP3 – 106,832 ⚖️ RR: ~1:3 or better if executed precisely 🧩 Market Psychology: This isn’t just technicals. It’s narrative vs. reality. Retail sees breakout → Long Smart Money sees sweep → Sell Retail buys late → Fuel for Smart Money exits 🛡️ Risk Reminder: Trade the setup, not emotions. Let price come to your zones. Stay mechanical, not emotional. Partial out and trail stops once TP1 hits. Never chase. ✅ Summary: BTCUSD is showing a perfect bearish Smart Money setup. OB + FVG confluence, strong premium reaction, engineered weak low, and liquidity zones below. Textbook SMC pattern. Play it right, and this setup could deliver clean, high-RR profits. ⚡ Drop a “BTC READY” in the comments if you're watching this one with sniper focus. 🧠 Tag a trading buddy who still thinks we’re in a breakout!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
2
EURUSD – Bearish Outlook After Inducement and RejectionEURUSD recently delivered a sharp rejection from the 1.13700 resistance zone, a level that previously acted as a strong barrier for price. This area had already shown signs of supply in the past, and the latest reaction only strengthens the case for continued bearish interest at that level. The rejection candle was large, clean, and decisive, showing that sellers aggressively stepped in after price entered the premium zone. This shift now places focus on how price navigates lower timeframes in the short term, especially as we approach key liquidity levels and structural points of interest. Sweep Setup and Liquidity Outlook Despite the rejection, one notable feature left behind is a 1H swing high just under 1.13400. This high remains untapped and likely holds buy-side liquidity from breakout traders. It’s common to see price sweep such local highs before turning lower, especially after a clear rejection from a major zone like the one above. This potential inducement move, where price runs the high to gather liquidity and trap late buyers, is what I’ll be watching closely next. The scenario I’m anticipating is a relatively short-lived push higher, just enough to clear the swing high liquidity before price shifts bearish again. This behavior fits within the broader bearish structure and could serve as the final fuel needed before a deeper move to the downside unfolds. Key Levels and Technical Context The first point of interest comes in at the 1.12182 level, which is marked on the chart. This level is not rando, it aligns with previous structure, sits near a micro-breaker, and is positioned just above a fair value gap. If we do get the anticipated sweep of the 1H high, this 1.12182 area becomes a highly sensitive zone where the next key reaction could occur. What makes this POI important is that it serves as a decision point for the market. If the sweep occurs and price aggressively sells off into this level, we can start watching for continuation setups. But if price stalls or consolidates here, we’ll need to evaluate whether the bearish momentum is still intact or if a shift is occurring. If bearish pressure continues, the next downside target is the POI around 1.11300. This level is nested cleanly inside a higher-timeframe fair value gap, and it also overlaps with a prior demand zone. From a liquidity standpoint, it’s the logical draw, resting sell-side liquidity is likely building beneath those May lows, and the market could easily target that zone once 1.12182 is breached. Momentum, Structure, and Execution Plan The current structure is bearish, but short-term strength is still on the table until the sweep of the 1H high plays out. I’m not interested in selling into strength just yet, I’d prefer to see the inducement leg complete, followed by signs of weakness such as bearish engulfing structures, lower timeframe market structure breaks, or clean fair value gap entries forming after the sweep. Once price breaks below 1.12182 decisively, it opens the path toward the next liquidity pocket at 1.11300. Any signs of continuation post-rejection from that first POI would be used to look for scalable short entries with tight risk and larger reward-to-risk ratios. Conclusion EURUSD is setting up for a clean liquidity run above the 1H high, following a strong rejection from higher timeframe resistance. The plan is to let price run that liquidity, then look for bearish signs to engage short down toward 1.12182. If that level fails to hold and bearish pressure continues, the 1.11300 POI becomes the next logical target. The structure is lining up well for this sequence, but execution will depend on how price behaves around the key inducement and reaction zones. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Short
by TehThomas
29
GOLD is About to COLLAPSE from a Fake Pump!📊 GOLD SMC Analysis (XAU/USD 4H) Gold just tapped into a major Fair Value Gap + Premium OB Zone, aligning with the 79% retracement level. Market structure shows exhaustion, and a perfect short setup is forming. 🔍 Smart Money Narrative: Strong prior bearish move = institutional sell-off ✅ Clean retrace into FVG (Fair Value Gap) and OB (Order Block) = sell zone 💯 Price tapped into 3,351 – 3,364 range (marked red) That level aligns with the 79% Fib + channel resistance 🚨 The confluence = Smart Money liquidity grab ➡️ expect dump 📍 Key Confluences: ✅ FVG: clear imbalance filled (great trap zone) ✅ Order Block: bearish origin of last impulse ✅ 79% Fib Level: classic retracement kill zone ✅ Bearish Trendline + Channel Top: dynamic resistance ✅ 3:1+ RRR short idea in play 📉 Trade Plan (Sell Setup): Entry Zone: 3,351 – 3,364 Stop Loss: 3,442 (above swing high) Take Profit: TP1: 3,280 (61.8% level) TP2: 3,120.76 (full move, 0% Fib) RRR: 1:3 to 1:4 🤑🔥 🧠 Institutional Logic: Retail is chasing breakout highs 😬 Smart Money is selling into OB + FVG → trap those late longs Next? Smash weak lows and rebalance price with a deep pullback 💬 “Gold’s headed for a cliff dive?” Drop a 💰 or ‘XAU’ if you’re riding this wave down!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
Bitcoin - History Repeating, 110k Next target?Bitcoin has been ranging tightly on the 4H chart, and the recent price behavior is starting to look very familiar. When you compare the current structure with what happened in the first week of May, there are some striking similarities. Back then, BTC consolidated in a sideways channel, faked a breakout to the upside, returned into the range briefly, tapped a demand zone, and then exploded higher into a strong rally. That move laid the groundwork for a steep continuation and fresh highs. Right now, we’re seeing a nearly identical flow: a prolonged consolidation followed by an upside breakout, a retrace into the prior range, and a precise reaction off a Fair Value Gap (FVG). These repeat structures often hint at algorithmic behavior or institutional footprints, where similar setups trigger similar outcomes. Structural Context and Price Behavior The May 6th move began with a candle close above the range, a retest of the lows and FVG within the previous structure, and then an impulsive breakout that never looked back. This breakout was clean, supported by high volume and conviction. Once the retest held, price surged with minimal drawdown. Now, we’ve just completed a similar sequence. Price closed above the consolidation range, came back in, filled the imbalance (FVG), and instantly found support. It’s also worth noting that both patterns formed after multi-day compressions, which often result in aggressive expansion phases. What strengthens this setup is that the recent FVG fill didn’t just find support, it caused an immediate reaction to the upside. That’s a key sign that demand is active in this area and institutions may have used this as a re-entry point. From a structure standpoint, as long as we’re holding above the green zone (prior range high and FVG area), the bias remains bullish. Liquidity Dynamics and Key Zones The green support area acts as a clear line in the sand. It represents the upper half of the previous range and the origin of the most recent displacement. As long as price stays above this level, the idea is simple: the market is still in expansion mode. The recent wick into the zone could also be viewed as a liquidity sweep, drawing in shorts or stop losses before the real move begins. In these kinds of setups, institutions often look for “clean-up” wicks to engineer liquidity, and BTC may have just completed that phase. Now that the liquidity grab has taken place and the imbalance is mitigated, the path of least resistance is likely to be up. Price Target and Expectations If history repeats, BTC could be setting up for a continuation leg that pushes toward a new all-time high. The $110,000 level makes sense both technically and psychologically. It would not only be a round number magnet but also a logical target based on the range expansion from the current structure. Once the local high breaks, momentum could accelerate quickly, especially if the market gets squeezed and forced to reprice aggressively. A clean move toward $110,000 would also align with the broader macro narrative, as BTC continues to show resilience and trend continuation despite periods of consolidation. Conclusion Bitcoin is potentially repeating its early-May price structure, where a breakout, retest into a key FVG, and strong bullish reaction led to new highs. We’ve just completed a similar retest and bounce, suggesting we may now be in the early stages of a fresh impulsive move. As long as price remains above the key demand zone, this setup favors continuation, with $110,000 as the next major objective. All eyes on whether the market can break above local highs and maintain bullish momentum into uncharted territory. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Long
by TehThomas
61
BTC Preparing for A Move Towards $110k Are You Ready?Bitcoin Market Update: BTC Preparing for a Move Towards 109,200 and 110,000 Levels Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be gearing up for a potential upward move targeting the 109,200 to 110,000 price range. Over the past several days, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a tight range, indicating accumulation and market indecision. However, the latest price action has shown a strong bullish breakout, confirmed by a solid bullish candle, followed by a healthy retest of the breakout zone. This retest suggests that Bitcoin may now be preparing for its next leg upward. The current price area presents a possible buying opportunity, especially as we approach the key black-marked zones on the chart. These levels are significant because they hold pending liquidity from previous days’ highs and also correspond to notable swing highs—areas where the market previously reversed. Traders should remain alert and not miss this potential opportunity. It's crucial to monitor the market closely for any structural shifts or additional confirmation signals, such as bullish patterns, increased volume, or momentum indicators aligning with the upward trend. As always, conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and informed decisions backed by solid analysis are essential for successful trading.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Peter_Wade
BTCUSD 30M | OB Rejection + FVG Target | Liquidity BelowSmart Money Concept Breakdown | May 18, 2025 This BTC setup is screaming institutional manipulation — and we’re ready to ride the wave. The most recent candle shows another clean rejection from the 30M Order Block, giving high confidence in bearish continuation. 🔍 Key Breakdown: Entry Confluence: Bearish OB between 103,569–103,634 tapped with a perfect wick Candle rejected CRT High (high-probability manipulation zone) Rejection confirmed with a bearish engulfing candle structure Target Mapping: Sell Side Liquidity: 102,643.59 Fair Value Gap: 102,200 zone Weak Low: 101,420.70 (likely final draw on liquidity) RR Setup: Entry: 103,570 zone SL: Just above CRT High at 103,811 TP1: SSL pool TP2: FVG TP3: Weak Low Risk-Reward Range: From 1:2.5 to 1:5+ 💰 🧠 Institutional Logic: The rally into the OB was likely a buy-side liquidity grab, faking retail breakout traders before dropping. If price breaks below 102,643 with momentum, expect a sweep of the FVG and weak low. 🎯 Bonus Watch: If price returns to the OB but fails to break CRT High again = solid re-entry confirmation 📉🧠
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
BTCUSD 1H | Liquidity Grab + FVG Play Before Bullish Expansion📊 BTC/USD 1-Hour Smart Money Outlook — May 15, 2025 Bitcoin is setting up for a classic SMC combo move — targeting sell-side liquidity before flipping bullish and running for the buy-side liquidity at ~$106K. Let’s break it down 👇 🧠 1. The Setup Price broke structure to the downside ✅ Heading into a liquidity sweep of the recent lows around $100,000 Major Fair Value Gap lies between $98,100–$96,800 This gap aligns with the 61.8–70.5% fib zone — a premium rebalance area for smart money 🔍 2. Expectations Short-Term Bearish into FVG → Sell-side liquidity gets swept Then strong bullish reversal targeting: 🔹 First target: $103,000 🔹 Final target: $105,787 (Buy-side liquidity + Weak High) Trade Idea: Long after FVG rejection confirmation SL below $96,800, TP up to $106K — insane RRR of 1:4+ ⚠️ 3. Risk Management Wait for a bullish reaction inside the FVG zone Protect capital if price closes below $96,800 → setup invalid Look out for NY session volatility and CPI/FOMC-driven fakeouts This is textbook Smart Money behavior: draw liquidity, rebalance price, and expand into inefficient price zones. If you're not trading with liquidity in mind — you're the liquidity. 🧠💸 💬 Comment “🚀” if you're long from the Fair Value Gap zone! 🎯 Follow @ChartNinjas88 for daily sniper setups and smart money breakdowns!
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by ChartNinjas88
USDCHF 30M | Fair Value Gap Sell Setup Inside Bearish Channel📊 USD/CHF Smart Money Breakdown — May 16, 2025 Here’s a clean SMC-driven setup where price respects the bearish order flow, taps a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and rejects right at liquidity inducement levels. Let’s break it down 👇 🔍 1. Context Price is respecting a descending channel structure Clean internal liquidity run up into: ✅ FVG zone from prior imbalance ✅ Top of bearish channel trendline This is a classic liquidity sweep before expansion lower 🎯 2. Entry Plan Entry zone: 0.8375–0.8391 (FVG zone shaded in red) Stop loss: Just above 0.8391 (invalidates FVG zone) Target zone: 🟢 TP1 → 0.8340 (minor inefficiency fill) 🟢 TP2 → 0.8327 (liquidity resting at the low) ➡️ RR ratio is about 1:3 on full target — clean sniper range! 📉 3. Smart Money Logic Retail likely triggered buy orders into that FVG zone Institutions tap FVG for premium entry Price already printing rejection wicks — early signs of displacement Watch for confirmation via: Bearish engulfing candle close Break of minor bullish structure on 5m ⚠️ Risk Notes: Watch out for USD fundamental news that might cause a fakeout spike Let price confirm breakdown before stacking entries 💬 Do you trust the FVG? Or think price will smash through? 🧠 Drop your confluence in the comments below and follow @ChartNinjas88 for precision setups like this every day.
Short
by ChartNinjas88
XAUUSD Hits FVG in Premium Zone — Bearish Setup in Play!📉 XAUUSD (Gold) has just tapped into a key Fair Value Gap (FVG) after a clean, impulsive rally — now we’re watching for Smart Money distribution and a potential reversal from this high-risk premium area. 📊 Chart Insights: ✅ Price retraced into the FVG zone between $3,225 – $3,240 ✅ This zone aligns with the 79% Fibonacci retracement, making it a premium zone for shorts ✅ Market structure shows previous bearish impulse → this could be a retracement before continuation ✅ Current PA is reacting to the imbalance left on the drop ✅ Massive downside potential to rebalance price near $3,120 🧠 Smart Money Confluence: FVGs are often rebalanced after price trades away impulsively The retrace into this inefficient pricing zone is classic Smart Money mitigation Price now sits in an area where institutions may look to offload long positions 📍 Potential Play: Short Entry Zone: $3,225 – $3,240 Targets: TP1: $3,200 TP2: $3,170 (mid-level liquidity) TP3: $3,120 (full FVG fill and higher TF draw) Invalidation: Clean break and hold above $3,240 💡 Pro Tip: Watch for a lower timeframe structure shift (15m/5m) or confirmation candle to stack entries. The market loves to sweep highs before the real move begins — patience pays. 🧠💰 📈 This setup offers 3:1+ RR and aligns with Smart Money’s tendency to sell into imbalance and hunt liquidity below. 💬 Comment “Gold Setup” if you’re trading this one! 🔁 Share or save if you're watching for the drop.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
Bitcoin – Sweep the Highs, Next Target $98kMarket Overview Bitcoin has been trading sideways for more than 8 days now, forming a tight consolidation range with no real breakout in sight. This kind of price action typically signals accumulation or distribution by larger players. While it may seem indecisive on the surface, this phase is often where the market sets its trap. What looks like inaction is actually a setup in progress. Price is compressing, volume is thinning out, and both bulls and bears are being lured in. That’s a perfect recipe for a sudden, aggressive move that wipes out one side entirely. Liquidity Structure The structure of this range is very clean, which in trading terms usually means dangerous. On the top side, we have a lot of liquidity, just above $105,800. This level has been tapped multiple times but never convincingly broken, and it now acts as a magnet for liquidity. On the flip side, the downside holds multiple clean lows, all clustered under the $100,000 mark. Both ends of this range are packed with liquidity. Smart money doesn’t trade in fair value, it trades where the most liquidity sits, and in this case, both the top and bottom of the range are loaded. Inducement and Manipulation The real purpose of this kind of range is not balance, it’s inducement. The market is inviting traders to take breakout positions on both sides, knowing full well that it’s unlikely to follow through cleanly. I believe we are currently in the inducement phase of the cycle. The equal highs around $105,800 are baiting breakout longs and short stop-losses alike. A move above that level would act as the stop hunt, triggering the final wave of longs before the rug is pulled. Once that liquidity is taken, I expect a sharp reversal that targets the lows of the range and continues further toward the real pool of liquidity sitting between $98,000 and $97,500. Scenario Outlook The most probable sequence from here is a fake breakout to the upside, followed by an impulsive selloff. A wick above $105,800 would serve as the signal, and once that inducement is cleared, the move down should be fast and decisive. This drop would take out the range lows and sweep the stops of everyone who tried to buy the breakout. If price does hold above $105,800 and shows continuation with strong volume and follow-through, that would be an invalidation of this short setup and a shift in structure, in which case I would reassess and wait for a pullback before considering any longs. Price Target and Expectations The first key event is the sweep above $105,800. That’s where breakout traders will commit, and that’s where I expect the reversal to begin. From there, downside targets include the low of the range and deeper liquidity near $98,000 to $97,500. This area aligns with a big imbalance zone, inefficiencies and the golden pocket fib level.. The expectation is for a quick drop once the trap is sprung, with a potential for a reaction or even a new bullish setup forming near that demand region. Conclusion Bitcoin has been compressing for over a week, and that usually ends with expansion. But expansion is not always trend continuation, especially when the structure suggests manipulation. The current setup looks ideal for a stop run above the range before dumping into deeper liquidity. The key is to wait for the sweep and watch how price reacts. The more obvious the breakout, the more likely it is to fail. Liquidity is king in this environment, and right now, the biggest pockets lie below. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Short
by TehThomas
125