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Fairvaluegap

Bitcoin Price Analysis Adjusted for Inflation: Key Reaction LeveOverview In this analysis of the BTC/USDT pair adjusted for inflation using the M2 money velocity (M2V), we examine the key Fibonacci levels and potential reactions from order blocks (OB) and fair value gaps (FVG). This provides a more accurate perspective on Bitcoin's price action in the context of inflation. Key Levels and Analysis Current Price: BTC/USDT adjusted for M2V is trading at 43,235.36, with a 1.57% increase. Fibonacci Levels: 0.236: 49,231.96 0.382: 42,763.04 0.5: 37,534.73 0.618: 32,306.42 0.786: 24,862.72 Potential Reaction Levels 0.5 Fibonacci Level (37,534.73): Order Block (OB): Just below the 0.5 level, an order block is present, indicating a potential strong support zone. Fair Value Gap (FVG): This zone also aligns with a fair value gap, suggesting a high probability of a significant price reaction. Targets Target 1: 49,231.96 - Key resistance level based on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement. Target 2: 59,688.58 - Major resistance aligned with the 0 Fibonacci retracement level. Target 3: 87,331.31 - Based on the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. Target 4: 115,152.95 - Ultimate bullish target at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. Harmonic Patterns The chart shows a large harmonic pattern Cypher, indicating potential reversal zones: Point C: Previous peak, suggesting areas of interest for resistance and support. Current Price Action Support Levels: Immediate support at the 0.382 Fibonacci level (42,763.04). Stronger support anticipated at the 0.5 level (37,534.73) due to the presence of OB and FVG. Resistance Levels: 0.236 Fibonacci level (49,231.96) as the first major resistance. Potential Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Holding above the 0.382 level could lead to a break above the 0.236 level, targeting 59,688.58 and higher. Bearish Scenario: If the 0.382 level fails, a drop to the 0.5 level is likely, where a strong reaction is expected due to OB and FVG. Conclusion Adjusting for inflation with the M2 money velocity offers a clearer view of Bitcoin's real value. The 0.5 Fibonacci level (37,534.73) is critical, with strong support from OB and FVG, suggesting a significant price reaction. Monitoring these levels will provide valuable insights for trading decisions. Share your thoughts and analysis in the comments below! Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Long
by Neirolink
1
EUR/GBP potential shortContext: • Market broke through monthly lows and stayed below • Built a weekly FVG down • On the daily, market builds a creeping trend into the weekly FVG • The weekly FVG is supported by lower timeframe FVGs on the daily and 4h chart Idea: • Look for shorts in the area 0.8465 to 0.85 (i.e. lower bound of weekly FVG up to las broken low) • Preferred entry timeframe: 4h Caution / Scenario invalidated: • Caution if market closes above 0.8484 • If market goes into 0.85, a sharp reversal should occur • If the market accepts higher prices and builds up a bullish dynamic, returning into its previous range, I skip this one Target: • Low around 0.84 Stop: • Above your entry signal • Last resort: 0.8541 Watch for your CRV Please feel free to comment!
Short
by MichaelBw
US30USD: Potential Buy OpportunityGreetings, Traders! Brief Description🖊️: Bullish momentum is building on US30USD after a retrace into discount prices, with potential for upside continuation. Things I Have Seen👀: - Bullish Momentum📈: Gain momentum after retrace into discount prices - Respected Discount Arrays📊: FVGs holding, indicating potential for upside move - Price Action📈: Push to upside to take H1 buy stops, followed by retrace into FVG Analysis🔍: - Anticipating hold of FVG and continuation to upside - First Target Objective📉: H1 buy stops - Second Target Objective📉: Order block, importance due to liquidity void needing to be filled What's Important Now❗: Monitor price action around key levels for confirmation of bullish continuation. Kind Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:US30USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
2
XAUUSD: HTF Narrative | NFP | Fair Value Gap Theory | EntriesGreetings, Traders! In today's video, I will provide an in-depth analysis of Gold to establish what I anticipate for today's trading, as well as for tomorrow, especially with the upcoming NFP news release. This video will be both narrative-driven and educational, covering the Fair Value Gap (FVG) theory. You will learn how to identify high-probability FVGs, which will help you understand the market narrative and predict its likely direction. Additionally, we'll discuss entry strategies using the FVG theory. For a deeper understanding of why I anticipate a bullish draw on Gold, please follow the link below to yesterday's post. Best Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by The_Archi-tect
4
Trading GBPUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 05/06/2024 At 8:25 AM EST, we got to our trading desk and started the day doing the basics on our Judas Swing strategy checklist which includes: - Making sure the timezone is set to New York time - Making sure we're on the 5 min timeframe - Marking the trading period from 00:00 - 08:30 - Marking the high and low of the zone We then waited for liquidity to be taken on either side of our trading zone, which will give us our directional bias for the trading session. Liquidity was taken at the highs after 15 minutes, signaling our focus would be on identifying potential selling opportunities. Precisely at 10:00, there was a significant bearish shift in GBPUSD that broke the structure, creating an FVG in the process. Keep in mind that high-impact news for the USD occurred at 8:15 and 10:00 EST, which can influence price movements. We then waited for price to retrace, filling or touching the created Fair Value Gap (FVG), and only executed our trade once the candle that touched or entered the FVG had closed. After executing the trade, price initially moved against us to fill part of the FVG left behind, it later moved slightly in our direction. However, it took a turn towards our stop loss. Despite this, we maintained confidence in our strategy, given its extensive backtesting, which has demonstrated a win rate of 52% on GBPUSD trades. Accepting the calculated risk of 1% of our account for the possibility of a 2% return, the closeness of the price to our stop loss did not shake us, and we kept our faith in the strategy. We anticipated an average position duration of 6 hours and 35 minutes, which could extend to 2x longer for the trade. We waited patiently, but our persistence did not yield results this time, resulting in a 1% loss in our trading account. It's important to note that we were on a winning streak for a few weeks and it's normal to have losing trades; no strategy guarantees a 100% win rate. However, with proper risk management and a favorable risk-reward ratio, the potential for profit can outweigh the losses.
by CleoFinance
USD/JPY Short: Two potential IdeasOn montly we had an upmove without FVGs. The previous month showed some rejection, but stayed inside: This gives us potential for a rotation into the middle. The weekly chart is still confined in the big downwards candle and took the previous week low. The current day close is clearly below the previously mentioned weekly low. This move was carried by clear 4h-FVGs. This gives us two options: Idea 1: More on the bigger scale. A quick spike in the upcomming 1-2 4h candles with a clear rejection on the latest 4h-FVG would be an ideal trade location for short. I would like to see price around 156.37 and try to get an lower timeframe entry, e.g. on 15-30min. The ideal approach would not show any bullish FVGs on a lower timeframe like 30min. Idea 2: More aggressive, since 4h could attract market. But if we build another 30min candle and manage to produce a bearish FVG, we would have the potential for an earlier reversal. In this scenario it would be ideal to close the last bullish FVG beforehand. The 2nd indicated candle should then a rejection on the FVG and could give a good entry. This scenario stays active for me unless we either build more bullish FVGs or go below the current days low. The first Take Profit, e.g. first half, would be the current days low around 155.95 - be wary to get a small stop for a good CRV. The 2nd half should be trailed.
Short
by MichaelBw
ORDER BLOCK AND FAIR VALUE GAP SMART MONEY CONCEPT**Order Block**: An order block is a specific price area on a financial chart where institutional traders have placed large buy or sell orders. These areas often lead to significant price movements and are used by traders to identify potential zones of support or resistance. Order blocks represent clusters of orders from big players like banks or hedge funds, signaling where major buying or selling interest lies. When price revisits these zones, it often reacts strongly, making them valuable for predicting price reversals or continuations. **Fair Value Gap**: A fair value gap (FVG) is a price range on a chart where there is an imbalance between buyers and sellers, often created during periods of high volatility or news events. This gap typically occurs when the market moves so quickly that trades do not fully fill, leaving a visible gap on the chart. Traders use fair value gaps to anticipate potential price retracements to these levels, as the market tends to revisit and fill these gaps over time, aligning price with its perceived fair value. Both concepts are crucial in technical analysis for identifying key price levels where significant market activity is likely to occur.
Education
by FrankFx14
2
Filecoin (FILUSD): Preparing for a Gap Fill - Levels to WatchFor Filecoin (FILUSD), we are currently looking at a scenario where there is a Weekly Fair Value Gap above us. We are quite confident that this gap will be filled; the only question is when. We believe there is a potential good entry point at the current levels. Below us, we have several supports. The first support is a 12-hour demand zone. Additionally, we have an Order Block Cluster and a simple support zone. These levels, combined with a favorable volume profile, should provide enough momentum and support for an upward move. Our primary target is the Weekly Fair Value Gap close. Once this target is reached, we will reassess the situation to determine whether the price will continue upwards or face a sell-off. This reaction will guide our next positioning. For now, our strategy is to aim for the gap close and position ourselves accordingly. Additionally, when we examine the Liquidation Heatmap for Filecoin, we notice several liquidations above our current level, specifically between $6.35 and $6.65, just above the recent high. This indicates two possible scenarios: Liquidations Triggered and Pullback: We might move up to trigger these liquidations, then experience a deeper pullback. Liquidations Triggered and Continuation Upwards: Alternatively, we might fill our current support levels and then move upwards towards these liquidations. If these liquidations are absorbed, we could either shoot through and continue upwards, or we might pull back after triggering them, leading to a potential continuation to the downside. It's important to be aware of these scenarios. Given that there are few liquidations below the current level, we do not expect significant downward wicks or deep pullbacks. Looking at Filecoin on the VWAP chart, we observe a sideways movement where the price repeatedly moves up and down but always returns between the 2024 Q1 VAL and the 2023 Q4 VAH. These two levels appear to be holding as our current range. We expect a small pullback, supported by the 2024 Q2 VAL and the 2023 Q4 VAH. These should act as our support zones on the VWAP chart. On the upside, our target is the 2024 Q1 VWAP at $7.70. Above this level, we anticipate resistance around $9.32. This analysis suggests a short-term strategy of buying at the support levels and targeting the identified resistance points.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
Stacks (STXUSD): Balanced Strategy for a Solid UpsideFor Stacks (STXUSD), we see a Fair-Value Gap (FVG) on the weekly chart, along with similar gaps on the three-day and daily charts, plus a demand zone below. Our plan is to use these weekly FVGs and the demand zone for Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) entry points if the price drops to those levels. We see $1.31 as the maximum downside. On the upside, we aim to reclaim the recent high, with resistance around the three-day gap at $2.64. We're pretty confident that with a well-placed stop-loss, this setup offers a solid chance to build a long swing position. This strategy provides a balanced risk-reward scenario, allowing us to take advantage of potential upward movements while effectively managing the risks. Looking at the annual VWAP for STX, it's crucial because this year's VAL (Volume-Weighted Average Price Low) could act as support, which aligns with our planned entry in the orange zone. This point could be pivotal for holding and supporting STX's price action. On the upside, the annual VAH (Volume-Weighted Average Price High) will serve as resistance. If we flip this level, it could then become support, opening up significant upward potential. While the timing is uncertain, we're ready to see how the price action unfolds, barring any unexpected news. On the quarterly chart, we see a clear picture. Our worst-case scenario is the 2024 Q1 VHL (Volume-Weighted Average Price Low) at $1.56, which is our downside limit. We expect this level to serve as resistance, and currently, we're struggling to surpass it. However, we're focusing on the 2024 Q1 VAL as our critical support, marking it as our worst-case scenario. Overall, breaking through the 2024 Q1 VHL is challenging, but our strategy considers this level, ensuring we're prepared for potential downside movements while aiming for upward targets. Lastly, the monthly chart for STX is more complex. We have the February VAL and January VAH below us, which have acted as support multiple times. If we lose these support levels, they might turn into resistance, possibly causing a reversal before or at the January VWAP. Our first resistance on the way up will be the April VAL of $2.42. There are several resistances to navigate, making it crucial to move carefully. Despite this, we expect a trend reversal soon, but the key question is whether the market will shake out a few more participants before turning upwards.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
FAIR VALUE GAP OR ORDER BLOCK ENTRYA fair value gap (FVG) and an order block entry are concepts used in technical analysis within financial markets to identify potential trading opportunities. ### Fair Value Gap (FVG) A fair value gap refers to a price range on a chart where there is an imbalance between buyers and sellers, often resulting in a quick movement through this area without much trading activity. This gap can create a zone of interest where price may return to fill the gap, presenting a potential trading opportunity. Traders look for these gaps to predict price movements, expecting that the market will revisit these areas to achieve a fair value. ### Order Block Entry An order block is a consolidation area where significant buying or selling has taken place, often by institutional traders. These blocks are typically identified by a cluster of orders that create a strong support or resistance level. When price returns to this level, it often reacts due to the presence of unfilled orders, providing a strategic entry point for traders. Order blocks are used to predict where the price might reverse or continue its trend, offering a high-probability entry signal based on historical price action. Both concepts are used by traders to make informed decisions based on the past behavior of price and volume, aiming to identify areas where significant trading activity is likely to influence future price movements.
Education
by FrankFx14
GBPNZD Short TradeMARKET PHASE GBPNZD is in a long term downtrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour). AREA OF VALUE Price continued to break new highs within this corrective structure. Eventually, price reached an area where sellers stepped in, resulting in a buildup of liquidity (buy stops, longs, short stop losses) above the corrective structure swing highs. Price violently moved up to trigger the buy stops (liquidity) to pair against the sell orders needed to take price down. Price then started it's initial move down and actually sustained selling pressure for some time. Due to the velocity of the downward move, priced gapped orders around 2.11584. Price may climb back to 2.11584, before selling off during the London session (News: Inflation Data). Therefore, we've setup a sell limit order with the following parameters: TRADE Sell Limit: 2.11584 Stop Loss: 2.12124 Take Profit: 2.10504
Short
by Mankz
AUDUSD Long TradeMARKET PHASE OANDA:AUDUSD is in a long term uptrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour). AREA OF VALUE Price continued to break lows within the corrective structure until it began to hold the bottom. There was a buildup of liquidity (sell stops, shorts, long order stop losses) below the corrective structure swing lows. Price violently moved down to trigger the sell stops (liquidity) to pair against the buy orders needed to take price up. Price has now started it’s initial move up but due to the velocity of the upward move, it's gapped orders around 0.65340. Price retraced back to this level to meet the demand and our entry was triggered. We can now expect a strong push upwards in the direction of the larger trend. TRADE I've entered my long position on OANDA:AUDUSD as follows: Buy Limit: 0.65340 Stop Loss: 0.65072 Take Profit: 0.65877
Long
by Mankz
Week of April 14th - Gold/Oil/DJI/VIX/10yrWhat a week we just had! Friday we saw aggressive broad selling all the way into the close. The NDX is once again just flopping around in this multi-week range - while The Dow is meaningfully breaking down. For indexes - I will be focusing on the Dow this week. The DJI has been super clean lately and is the only index really making the sizeable moves as it took out the February lows. ALL of the major averages are rolling over on their daily charts. Dow - Friday we saw aggressive selling all day long and this caused a weekly Market Structure shift on the weekly chart. From here the DJI needs to back test this weekly breakdown level and confirm the shift. We have a weekly breaker that will provide the first resistance level around 39k. If we can get past that - we should pop to 39.4k or so. There are a LOT of things that are aligned to enable the up move. DJI held its 100dma as support today and I am looking for a back-test into its 20dma or so. VIX - Friday the VIX spiked in a big way and is breaking out of a 2 month daily range. This was driven by war fears in the Middle East. The simple fact is that everyone sold their stocks and bought bonds and gold and puts on Friday. If WW3 doesn't materialize by Monday - they will all be offsides and be rushing to enter the market. I am looking for the VIX to get aggressively sold Monday if WW3 doesn't break out - which will be bullish for stocks. DXY - DXY spiked into a daily level that I wanted to hold as resistance. DXY has broken out as everyone rushed into cash/bonds/gold - but again I want to see a ERL to IRL move to retest the breakout. A falling DXY (in the short term) will be bullish for oil and gold. Crude Oil - Oil has been whippy lately and this to me shows how exhausted it is getting. going into this week. The weekly chart wants to trade 88 and then I think oil is due for a long grind lower as the markets continue to roll over. Oil should find some bullish legs to pop $3 as the DXY retreats during its back-test. 10yr Yield- Rates are going higher in the short run. I am looking for 4.7% to trade and I will be loading the boat with bonds around this level. Gold- Gold cracked the $2400 level last night, and banks came in to mash the hell out of it all day on Friday. Nothing has broken on the 4hr chart - yet. But I have alerts set to I can start scouting for shorts. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; - I want to see DJI trade higher into the the weekly breaker block around 39k. From there I will be scouting for short entries. -Looking for interest rates to continue to march higher - this will continue to apply pressure to indexes. Indexes will ignore rates (for now) as the VIX marches lower to confirm its breakout. - Gold & Oil - I want to see these things top out and soon. Oil has one last gasp in it and will be supported by DXY heading lower to confirm its breakout - I am looking for $88 to trade on WTI. Gold - we have to hold it here or we are going to start a down move. I have been publishing my weekly newsletter over at www.baero.biz since November as I have more flexability on that platform. Use code 'HTF24' to get 50% off your first month, come join us!
CBOT_MINI:YMM2024Long
by Baero-Trading
I'm Back: EURAUD ShortMARKET PHASE OANDA:EURAUD is in a long term downtrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour). AREA OF VALUE Price continued to break new highs within this corrective structure. Eventually, price reached an area where sellers stepped in, resulting in a buildup of liquidity (buy stops, longs, short stop losses) above the corrective structure swing highs. Price violently moved up to trigger the buy stops (liquidity) to pair against the sell orders needed to take price down. Price then started it's initial move down and actually sustained selling pressure for some time. Due to the velocity of the downward move, priced gapped around 1.64394. During this morning, price hit 1.64394 a couple times and sold off aggressively, supporting our thesis. Our sell limit order was filled and we are now in a short with the following parameters: TRADE Sell Limit: 1.64394 Stop Loss: 1.64534 Take Profit: 1.64114
Short
by Mankz
EURGBP LongMARKET PHASE OANDA:EURGBP is in a long term uptrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour). AREA OF VALUE Price continued to break lows within the corrective structure until it began to hold the bottom. There was a buildup of liquidity (sell stops, shorts, long order stop losses) below the corrective structure swing lows. Price violently moved down to trigger the sell stops (liquidity) to pair against the buy orders needed to take price up. Price has now started it’s initial move up but due to the velocity of the upward move, it's gapped orders around 0.85773. Price has retraced back to this level to meet the demand multiple times and is met with extreme buying pressure. We can now expect a strong push upwards in the direction of the larger trend. TRADE I've entered my long position on OANDA:EURGBP as follows: Buy Limit: 0.85773 Stop Loss: 0.85733 Take Profit: 0.85853
Long
by Mankz
1
GBPNZD ShortMARKET PHASE OANDA:GBPNZD is in a long term downtrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour). AREA OF VALUE Price continued to break new highs within this corrective structure. Eventually, price reached an area where sellers stepped in, resulting in a buildup of liquidity (buy stops, longs, short stop losses) above the corrective structure swing highs. Price violently moved up to trigger the buy stops (liquidity) to pair against the sell orders needed to take price down. Price then started it's initial move down and actually sustained selling pressure for some time. Due to the velocity of the downward move, priced gapped around 2.09800. During this morning, price hit 2.09800, and began selling off, supporting our thesis. Our sell limit order was filled and we are now in a short with the following parameters: TRADE Sell Limit: 2.09800 Stop Loss: 2.10100 Take Profit: 2.09200
Short
by Mankz
Smart Money Concept for 1000Bonk/USDT.P In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency trading, precision and foresight are paramount. Our analysis of 1000Bonk/USDT.P reveals an intriguing opportunity rooted in the Smart Money Concept (SMC), providing a roadmap for potential gains amidst market fluctuations. Over the past day, 1000Bonk/USDT.P has surged to considerable heights, but signs indicate an impending downturn, albeit the timing remains uncertain. Leveraging the principles of SMC, we pinpoint an entry point at 0.024720. This selection aligns strategically with a 4-hour fair value gap (FVG), presenting an opportune moment to enter the market. To mitigate risk, we implement a stop-loss (SL) at 0.023544, positioned 0.8% below the 4-hour FVG. This precautionary measure serves as a safeguard against adverse movements, preserving capital in the event of unexpected market shifts. Our take-profit (TP) strategy is finely tuned to capitalize on market dynamics. We identify a TP level of 0.031182, strategically located at a bearish Order Block (OB). This targeted approach ensures that potential gains are maximized while maintaining a disciplined exit strategy. Furthermore, traders are encouraged to exercise flexibility in managing their positions, with the option to scale out profits or adjust TP levels based on evolving market conditions. By integrating adaptability with strategic analysis, traders can optimize their returns and navigate the complexities of cryptocurrency trading with confidence.
Long
by smarttrader012
1