Get started

Fairvaluegap

Gold - Bullish Trend Faces a Break – A Deeper Pullback Incoming?Gold has been enjoying a strong and steady uptrend, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows within a well-defined ascending channel. However, we’ve now seen a break of structure, with price closing below the lower boundary of the channel. This signals that Gold might be in for a short-term pullback, as the market seeks to rebalance before the next potential leg up. A break of an ascending channel often suggests that bullish momentum is cooling off, at least temporarily. While this doesn’t necessarily mean a full reversal, it does indicate that buyers may be taking profits, allowing the market to correct before continuing higher. This is a normal and healthy phase in an overall bullish market. Why a Drop to $2960 Makes Sense One of the key reasons to expect a pullback is the large imbalance zone that remains unfilled below current price levels. Imbalances in the market occur when price moves aggressively in one direction without creating proper structural support on the way up. More often than not, the market likes to come back and fill these inefficiencies before continuing in its primary direction. In this case, we have an important confluence around the $2960 level, where the unfilled imbalance meets the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (golden pocket). The golden pocket is a high-probability reversal zone, where price tends to react strongly due to the presence of large institutional orders waiting to be executed. This area becomes even more significant when combined with psychological levels and previous price action support. If Gold pulls back to this level, it could be an optimal entry point for buyers looking to ride the next bullish wave. What Comes Next? Once Gold reaches the $2960 region, we will need to watch for strong bullish reactions. If buyers step in aggressively, we could see Gold resume its uptrend and potentially push towards new highs. However, if buyers fail to hold the line at this level, things could get more interesting. A failed bounce at $2960 would open the door for a deeper correction, possibly extending down to the $2860 - $2900 zone, where we have additional technical support levels. While this is not the primary scenario, it’s important to remain aware of the possibility in case bearish momentum increases. Final Thoughts At the moment, Gold is showing early signs of a pullback after breaking out of its ascending channel. The $2960 level is my primary target for this retracement, as it aligns with both the golden pocket and the unfilled imbalance zone. If price reaches this level and reacts bullishly, it could provide a strong buying opportunity before Gold continues its march higher. However, if $2960 fails to hold, we need to be prepared for a larger move downward before the uptrend resumes. Either way, the next few days will be crucial in determining Gold’s next big move. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by TehThomas
77
BTCUSDT – Short Setup Brewing at FVG with IFVG ConfirmationMarket Context: Bitcoin (BTC) continues its retracement phase following a sharp decline, now approaching a high-probability reaction zone. Price is climbing back toward a previously identified Fair Value Gap (FVG), positioned within the premium Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting a potential area for distribution and bearish continuation. Technical Breakdown: - Price bounced off a well-defined support zone, beginning a recovery toward the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci zone, where the FVG exists. - An additional Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) has now formed just beneath the FVG zone, creating a dual-layer of imbalance—offering even more potential confluence for a reversal. - A short position idea is highlighted with a trigger condition: **“If the gap inverses, possible short entry”**—meaning traders are looking for the IFVG to act as resistance following the FVG reaction. Price Behavior & Trade Setup: The green path illustrates the anticipated move higher into the FVG zone, likely grabbing liquidity above recent highs. Should price tap this supply zone and then reject into the IFVG, it would present an ideal scenario for a short entry confirmation. Key Considerations: - The presence of both FVG and IFVG increases the likelihood of strong resistance forming in this region. - Rejection at this level would imply smart money distribution, and a renewed bearish leg could develop. - Patience is key here—entry should only be considered if the IFVG confirms its role as resistance following the sweep into FVG. Conclusion: BTC is in a critical retracement phase, and the overlapping FVG and IFVG zones mark a high-confluence area to watch. If price shows weakness after filling the gap, it sets up a clean short opportunity targeting a return to lower support levels. Until that bearish confirmation appears, bulls still have short-term control, but risk is growing as price approaches imbalance zones.
Short
by Louigi_24
27
ETHUSDT - Bearish Continuation Within a Descending StructureMarket Overview: Ethereum (ETH) remains in a well-defined downtrend, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. The market structure remains bearish, with price respecting the descending trendline. Currently, ETH is showing signs of a corrective move within this broader downtrend, approaching a key Fair Value Gap (FVG) region that could act as a supply zone before a potential continuation to the downside. Technical Insights: - The long-term downtrend is intact, as demonstrated by the trendline resistance capping any bullish attempts at recovery. Until price successfully breaks above this trendline with strong momentum, the bearish outlook remains dominant. - A major support level has been tested multiple times, indicating strong demand in this area. However, repeated retests of support without significant bullish follow-through increase the likelihood of a breakdown. - The price is currently retracing into an FVG region, which aligns with previous structural resistance. This could serve as an ideal area for sellers to re-enter the market, pushing price lower towards new lows. Potential Scenario: If price rejects the FVG zone and fails to break above the descending trendline, the bearish trend is expected to resume. A strong rejection here could lead to increased selling pressure, targeting the key support zone below. If this support breaks, ETH could see a continuation of its larger downtrend, potentially reaching lower price levels. Risk Considerations: While the overall trend remains bearish, traders should be cautious of any sudden shifts in momentum that could invalidate the bearish thesis. A strong bullish breakout above the descending trendline would suggest a change in market structure, requiring a reassessment of the outlook. Additionally, macroeconomic factors and broader market sentiment, including Bitcoin’s movement, could influence Ethereum’s price action. Conclusion: ETH remains in a clear downtrend, with price currently testing a critical FVG zone within a bearish structure. Unless a significant breakout occurs, the market is likely to continue its descent, with sellers targeting the major support area. Traders should closely monitor price action in the FVG zone for confirmation of the next move.
Short
by Louigi_24
21
Bitcoin - Bulls Defend Support: Is a Sell-Off Still Possible?A Major Support Zone Holds Once Again Bitcoin just tapped into a key 4-hour support level, a zone where price has repeatedly bounced in the past. This area has proven to be a strong demand zone, with buyers stepping in each time price reaches it. What makes this level even more significant is that it perfectly aligns with the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement level, a key technical area where price often finds support before continuing its trend. As expected, BTC reacted strongly upon reaching this zone, showing a sharp rejection and bounce to the upside. This confirms that buyers are still actively defending this area, and as long as we hold above this level, the probability of a move higher remains strong. A Huge Imbalance Zone Above – Where Is BTC Likely Headed? Looking ahead, the most interesting aspect of this setup is the large imbalance zone sitting above the current price. When price moves rapidly in one direction without much consolidation, it creates an inefficiency or imbalance in the market. These imbalances tend to get filled over time as price naturally retraces back to these areas. In this case, there’s a significant imbalance above us, making it highly likely that Bitcoin will push higher in the coming sessions to correct this inefficiency. I’m targeting at least a 50% fill of this imbalance zone, as this is typically where price starts to show some reaction. This would put BTC at a critical decision point where we could either see further upside or a rejection back down. If buyers remain in control, we could see Bitcoin fully filling this imbalance, which would push price towards the 84-85K range, a key area to watch for potential reversals. What If Bitcoin Loses This Key Support? While the current reaction from support looks promising, we always need to consider the bearish scenario. If Bitcoin fails to hold this golden pocket level and strong support zone, it could open the door for a much deeper retracement. In this case, BTC could drop significantly, with the next major support sitting around the $72K level. This area represents a critical demand zone where buyers would likely step in more aggressively. A breakdown toward $72K would also signal a much larger corrective move within the broader trend, possibly shifting market sentiment in favor of bears. What Comes Next? Right now, Bitcoin is at a crucial point. The bounce from support suggests bullish strength, but the key test will be whether BTC can sustain this momentum and push into the imbalance zone. If we see a clean move into this area, I’ll be watching for potential short setups, as price often struggles to break through these zones in one attempt. On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to hold above this golden pocket and key support, the next logical move would be a retest of the $72K region, where buyers will have another chance to defend the trend. For now, I remain cautiously bullish, expecting at least a partial fill of the imbalance before any major rejection. Let’s see how price action develops in the coming sessions! __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Long
by TehThomas
87
Bitcoin - Bulls Take Control: Short term rally to $86K?Bitcoin has once again reacted to the $81,000 support level, bouncing from this key demand zone and showing signs of bullish momentum. The price is currently moving upwards, and the next logical target appears to be the $85,500 – $86,000 zone, where a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and the Fibonacci golden pocket align. This area is expected to act as a significant resistance level, meaning we could see a rejection from there, leading to another move back toward support. The plan is to monitor the price as it approaches $86,000, watching for signs of a reversal or continued strength. If a rejection occurs, Bitcoin could make its way back toward $81,000 or lower, providing another potential buying opportunity. Bitcoin’s Reaction to $81,000 – A Strong Demand Zone Bitcoin has consistently found support at $81,000, and this level once again played a crucial role in preventing further downside. This area has been tested multiple times, reinforcing its importance in the current price action. Each time the price has dropped to this level, buyers have stepped in aggressively, causing strong rejections to the upside. The latest bounce from this support level suggests that there is still demand in the market, at least for now. The presence of long wicks at this level indicates that sellers attempted to push the price lower, but buyers quickly absorbed the selling pressure, resulting in a reversal. This move aligns with the broader market structure, which suggests that Bitcoin is still ranging between support at $81,000 and resistance near $86,000. Short-Term Target: Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Golden Pocket at $86,000 Now that Bitcoin has rebounded from support, the next major area of interest is the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and the golden pocket retracement zone around $85,500 – $86,000. This level is important for several reasons. First, the golden pocket (0.618 – 0.65 Fibonacci retracement) is a common area where price reversals occur, especially after a significant move. It acts as a magnet for price action, drawing the market toward it before a potential rejection. Second, the Fair Value Gap (FVG) represents an imbalance in price, meaning Bitcoin could aim to "fill" this gap before making its next major move. Gaps like these often get revisited before the market decides on a new trend direction. Finally, liquidity is likely concentrated above $85,000, meaning stop losses from short positions could be triggered in this zone, leading to increased volatility. If Bitcoin reaches this level, traders should closely monitor how price reacts. A strong rejection could signal a move back down, while a clean breakthrough could indicate further upside potential. Potential Rejection and Move Back to Support Despite the short-term bullish outlook, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will face resistance near $86,000, leading to a pullback. If this rejection occurs, the price could once again retest the $81,000 support level. This would keep Bitcoin within a broader trading range and present another opportunity for buyers to step in. A failure to hold $81,000 on the next test could open the door for a deeper correction toward $78,000 – $76,000, where more buyers might be waiting. However, as long as Bitcoin remains above the $81,000 mark, the market structure remains relatively stable. Final Thoughts Bitcoin is currently in a short-term bullish phase, with price targeting the $86,000 resistance zone. However, traders should be cautious as this level aligns with key technical factors such as the golden pocket, Fair Value Gap, and potential liquidity grab. A rejection from this area could lead to another move back down to support. For now, the key levels to watch are $86,000 for a potential rejection and $81,000 for a potential retest. If Bitcoin breaks through resistance convincingly, we could see a more extended rally, but until then, the market remains within a defined range. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Long
by TehThomas
79
ADA - Bearish Rejection from Fair Value Gap (FVG)?This 4-hour chart of ADA/USDT shows price making a strong recovery after a significant drop. However, it is now approaching a key resistance area—a Fair Value Gap (FVG) near the 0.618-0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels. Here’s the potential setup: 🔹 FVG Resistance: Price is entering a liquidity zone where sellers might step in. 🔹 Possible Double Top Formation: A rejection at this level could lead to a bearish reversal, forming a distribution pattern before dropping. 🔹 Bearish Continuation? If the FVG acts as resistance, ADA could resume its downtrend, targeting lower support zones. Will this resistance hold, or will ADA break through and continue higher? Drop your thoughts below! 🔥📉
Short
by wdstrades
3
XRP - Decision Point at Fair Value Gap (FVG)This 1-hour XRP/USDT chart shows price consolidating inside a descending channel, approaching a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone. Key Observations: 🔹 FVG Support: Price is testing an area of inefficiency, which could act as a turning point. 🔹 Two Possible Scenarios: - Bullish Case: If price holds the FVG and breaks upward, a push toward channel resistance is likely. - Bearish Case: Failure to hold the FVG could result in a drop toward the lower channel boundary. Which way will XRP move next? 🚀📉 Let’s discuss!
by Louigi_24
42
Cardano - Bullish Breakout! Can Bulls Finally Take Control? Cardano (ADA) has recently broken out of a prolonged bearish trend on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. This breakout suggests that bullish momentum could be building, paving the way for a move higher. The price action indicates that ADA may now target areas of confluence, where technical factors align to create significant levels of interest. The breakout itself is a strong indication that buyers are gaining control, pushing the price above previous resistance levels. This shift in momentum could be the start of a more substantial rally, especially if ADA continues to attract buyers as it moves higher. The breakout from the bearish trend also marks a change in the broader market structure. Previously, ADA was confined within a downward trend, but now it appears to be transitioning into a more bullish phase. This transition is crucial for traders, as it presents opportunities for both short-term gains and longer-term investment strategies. As ADA moves higher, it will be important to monitor how it interacts with key technical levels, as these will provide insight into whether the breakout is sustainable or if it will be met with resistance. Short-Term Target: Golden Pocket and Fair Value Gap The next logical target for ADA is the golden pocket zone (0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement level), which coincides with a Fair Value Gap (FVG). This confluence creates a magnet for price action due to several reasons. The golden pocket is a key area where reversals or consolidations often occur after significant moves. It acts as a strong resistance level and is widely monitored by traders because it represents a point where price action tends to stabilize or reverse. Historically, the golden pocket has been a reliable indicator of potential price reversals, making it a critical area to watch for traders looking to capitalize on ADA's current momentum. The Fair Value Gap (FVG) represents an imbalance in price caused by rapid movement, leaving untraded zones behind. Price tends to revisit these areas to "fill" the gap, making this level crucial for predicting future movements. Gaps like these often get revisited before the market decides on a new trend direction, which means that ADA's approach to this zone could be pivotal in determining its next major move. Additionally, liquidity is likely concentrated around this area, as stop-loss orders from short positions could be triggered here, leading to increased volatility. If ADA reaches this level, traders should closely monitor how price reacts. A strong rejection could signal a move back down, while a clean breakthrough could indicate further upside potential. Potential Rejection and Support Levels While the breakout is promising, there remains a high probability of resistance at the golden pocket and FVG zone. If ADA faces rejection here, it could retrace toward key support levels. The primary support zone, which has held firm during recent consolidation phases, will be crucial in determining whether ADA can maintain its bullish momentum. A retest of this area would provide another opportunity for buyers to step in, potentially leading to a continuation of the current trend. In the event of a rejection, ADA might initially pull back to test its recent breakout levels. If this support holds, it would reinforce the idea that the breakout is legitimate and that ADA is poised for further gains. However, failure to hold these levels could open the door for ADA to drop toward secondary support zones. These areas, typically marked by previous lows or significant trading volumes, would be critical in preventing a deeper correction. If ADA fails to find support at these levels, it could signal a broader reversal in the market, potentially leading to a retest of lower support zones. Final Thoughts Cardano’s breakout from its bearish trend presents an exciting opportunity for traders. The golden pocket and FVG alignment around the target zone make it a critical area to watch. Traders should remain cautious as price approaches this resistance level, looking for signs of rejection or continued strength. Monitoring the price action closely will be essential in determining whether ADA has the momentum to push through resistance or if it will be forced back into a consolidation phase. For now, the key levels to monitor include the resistance at the golden pocket/FVG zone and the support at recent breakout levels. A decisive breakout above resistance could signal further upside potential, while failure might keep ADA within its broader range structure. As ADA navigates these technical levels, traders should be prepared for increased volatility and potential trading opportunities. Whether ADA continues its ascent or faces a pullback, the current market conditions offer a compelling setup for traders looking to capitalize on the cryptocurrency's movements. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Long
by TehThomas
38
US100 - Weekend Gap Filled, What’s Next?The US100 1-hour chart shows that the weekend gap has been completely filled, and price is now approaching a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone. This level could act as a strong resistance or a point of continuation for the current bullish momentum. Here are two possible scenarios: ✅ Scenario 1: If price consolidates above the FVG and finds support, we could see a continuation towards the 0.618-0.65 Fibonacci retracement level, pushing towards 19,800+. ❌ Scenario 2: A rejection at the FVG zone could signal a bearish reversal, leading to a move back down towards 19,200 or even lower. Which scenario do you think will play out? Let’s discuss! 🚀📉
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Louigi_24
22
OIL - Key Fibonacci Levels and Potential Market MovesThis chart presents a detailed technical analysis of Crude Oil Futures on the 1D timeframe, highlighting key Fibonacci levels, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), and potential price movements. Key observations: - The price is currently around $71.44, moving towards a key decision zone. - A significant Fibonacci retracement zone (0.618 - 0.65) is marked near $74, aligning with a key resistance area. - The "Golden Pocket" from the greater downtrend remains a crucial area to watch for a potential reversal. - Two Fair Value Gaps (FVG & IFVG) are identified, which could act as liquidity zones. Possible Scenarios: 🟢 Option 1: Bullish breakout, price moves above $74 and continues toward $78+ levels. 🔴 Option 2: Rejection from resistance, leading to a potential pullback below $70. 🔴 Option 3: Strong rejection, price drops back towards the Fibonacci 0 level (~$64). Which option do you think is most likely? Let me know your thoughts! 🚀📉
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by Louigi_24
14
ETH - Bearish Reversal Expected from FVG ZoneIn this 1-hour chart analysis of ETHUSDT on Bybit, we observe a potential price reaction from a Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone. The current downtrend has left an imbalance in the market, and price is retracing towards the 0.618 - 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels , which align with the FVG area. Key Observations: 🔹 Market Structure: The price is in a bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows. 🔹 FVG & Fibonacci Confluence: A strong resistance zone is marked within the $1,980 - $2,000 range, coinciding with the Golden Pocket (0.618 - 0.65 Fib levels) . 🔹 Expected Price Action: - A bullish retracement ( green path ) into the FVG zone. - A rejection from this resistance area, leading to a continuation of the downtrend ( red paths ). - Potential targets for the drop are around $1,860 - $1,800 , aligning with previous liquidity zones. Trading Plan: 📌 Short Entry: Around $1,980 - $2,000 if rejection signs appear. 📌 Stop Loss: Above $2,020 to invalidate the bearish setup. 📌 Target: $1,860 - $1,800 based on historical support levels. This idea is based on market imbalance and liquidity dynamics , so watching for confirmation before entering a trade is crucial. 🚀🔍
by Louigi_24
19
DENT - Potential Price Reversal at Golden Pocket and FVG ZoneIn this TradingView chart for the DENT/USDT perpetual contract on the 4-hour timeframe, the current price action is being analyzed with a focus on key Fibonacci and market structure levels that indicate potential price movement. Below is an extensive description of the setup: 1. Golden Pocket Support Zone: - Highlighted in yellow, this area represents the golden pocket derived from a significant upward trend. The golden pocket, located between the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels, is known as a high-probability reversal zone. - The price recently reacted off this level, signaling potential bullish interest in the zone. 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG): - The blue zone above current price action highlights an unfilled Fair Value Gap (FVG) left behind during the prior downtrend. This area, located near 0.00078, may act as a potential liquidity target if the price begins to retrace upward. - The Fibonacci retracement is also drawn, intersecting with this zone, reinforcing its significance as a key resistance area. 3. Potential Scenarios: - Bullish Retracement: The green path anticipates a short-term upward move where the price may climb toward the FVG resistance zone. This move could align with traders looking to target the imbalance created by previous price action. - Bearish Continuation: The red arrow outlines the scenario where price, after testing the FVG, resumes its downward trajectory, breaking through the golden pocket and continuing its bearish trend. 4. Technical Overview: - The chart shows clear evidence of a prior bearish trend, with current price action suggesting a temporary pause or reversal. Traders should monitor price behavior around the golden pocket and FVG zones for confirmation of either scenario. - Breakdowns below the golden pocket could indicate further downside momentum, while breakouts above the FVG might suggest a shift in market sentiment. This setup provides a roadmap for potential price action and highlights critical levels for traders to watch for entry, exit, and risk management.
by Louigi_24
38
EURUSD - Key FVG Zones and Potential Market MovesThis EURUSD 4-hour chart highlights critical Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) that could serve as key decision points for price action. The chart illustrates a confluence of factors: 1. Upper FVG Zone: Located near the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels, this area represents a potential supply zone. Price reaching this level could either result in a bearish rejection or continuation upwards, depending on momentum and market sentiment. 2. Lower FVG Zone: A well-defined demand zone in the 1.07000-1.07500 range, serving as a key support area where buyers may step in if the price retraces. 3. Projected Scenarios: - Bullish Scenario (Green Path): If the price holds above the lower FVG and gains momentum, a push toward the upper FVG with potential breakout above could ensue, aiming for levels around 1.09000 and higher. - Bearish Scenario (Red Path): A rejection from the upper FVG could lead to a retest of the lower zone, and if broken, may lead to further downside below 1.07000. This analysis underscores the importance of monitoring these zones and the price action dynamics around them. Traders should be prepared for both scenarios while aligning their strategies with broader market context and risk management principles.
by Louigi_24
21
XRP - Ascending Channel: Will bulls stay in control?XRP continues to trade within a well-established ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, maintaining a bullish structure as long as it respects this formation. The price has consistently formed higher highs and higher lows, signaling that buyers are still in control. However, recent price action suggests that XRP is at a critical decision point, with strong support below and short-term resistance above. 4H Timeframe – Golden Pocket and Imbalance Providing Strong Support One of the key areas to watch is the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement level (0.618 - 0.65), which aligns with a 4-hour imbalance zone. This confluence has already provided two strong bounces, confirming that buyers are actively defending this area. The golden pocket is a key retracement zone where price often finds strong support before continuing the trend. Additionally, the imbalance zone represents an area of unfilled liquidity, which price often revisits before resuming its move. The fact that XRP has reacted twice from this level suggests that it remains a critical demand zone. As long as price remains above this level, the bullish structure is intact, and XRP could continue pushing higher within the ascending channel. The next target for bulls would be the 0.618 Fibonacci extension level, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. However, if this support fails and XRP breaks below the golden pocket and imbalance zone, the structure could shift bearish, leading to a potential breakdown toward lower support levels. 1H Timeframe – Bearish Rejection from Imbalance Zone While the 4-hour structure remains bullish, the 1-hour timeframe presents a short-term bearish case. Recently, XRP was rejected from a significant imbalance zone, suggesting that sellers are stepping in. This rejection indicates a potential short-term pullback before the next major move. When price fails to break through an imbalance zone, it often signals that there isn’t enough liquidity to sustain the uptrend. This could lead to a retracement back to lower levels, possibly retesting the golden pocket on the 4H timeframe before another push higher. Key Levels to Watch Support Zone: Golden pocket (0.618 - 0.65) + 4H imbalance Resistance Zone: 1H imbalance rejection area Bullish Target: 0.618 Fibonacci extension, aligning with the upper boundary of the channel Bearish Breakdown Level: A break below the golden pocket and imbalance could trigger a deeper retracement Final Thoughts – Bullish Structure, but Short-Term Weakness The 4H ascending channel remains intact, and the golden pocket support has held twice, indicating that the uptrend is still in play. However, the 1H bearish rejection from an imbalance zone suggests that XRP could face short-term weakness, leading to a possible retest of support before the next major move. If XRP holds the golden pocket, the bullish bias remains strong, and we could see a continuation towards 2.80 – 2.90 in the coming sessions. However, if support fails, the structure could shift bearish, bringing lower retracement levels into play. This setup presents both bullish and bearish scenarios, making it crucial to monitor key levels and wait for confirmation before making a trading decision. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
by TehThomas
49
BTC/USDT - The moment of truthThe BTC/USDT chart highlights a crucial moment as the price breaks out of a bearish trendline and tests a Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone. Key scenarios include: - A potential continuation of the bullish trend if the price successfully holds above the FVG zone and confirms support. - Alternatively, a rejection at this level could signal a return to bearish momentum. Keep an eye on price action within the FVG zone for confirmation of the next move. Which way do you see BTC heading?
by Louigi_24
32
What Are the Inner Circle Trading Concepts? What Are the Inner Circle Trading Concepts? Inner Circle Trading (ICT) offers a sophisticated lens through which traders can view and interpret market movements, providing traders with insights that go beyond conventional technical analysis. This article explores key ICT concepts, aiming to equip traders with a thorough understanding of how these insights can be applied to enhance their trading decisions. Introduction to the Inner Circle Trading Methodology Inner Circle Trading (ICT) methodology is a sophisticated approach to financial markets that zeroes in on the behaviours of large institutional traders. Unlike conventional trading methods, ICT is not merely about recognising patterns in price movements but involves understanding the intentions behind those movements. It is part of the broader Smart Money Concept (SMC), which analyses how major players influence the market. Key Inner Circle Trading Concepts Within the ICT methodology, there are many concepts to learn. Below, we’ve explained the most fundamental ideas central to ICT trading. Structure Understanding the structure of a market is fundamental to effectively employing the ICT methodology. In the context of ICT, market structure is defined by the identification of trends through specific patterns of highs and lows. Market Structure A market trend is typically characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend. This sequential pattern provides a visual representation of market sentiment and momentum. Importantly, market trends are fractal, replicating similar patterns at different scales or timeframes. For example, what appears as a bearish trend on a short timeframe might merely be a corrective phase within a larger bullish trend. By understanding this fractal nature, traders can better align their strategies with the prevailing trend at different trading intervals. Break of Structure (BOS) A Break of Structure occurs when there is a clear deviation from these established patterns of highs and lows. In an uptrend, a BOS is signalled by prices exceeding a previous high without falling below the most recent higher low, confirming the strength and continuation of the uptrend. Conversely, in a downtrend, a BOS is indicated when prices drop below a previous low without breaching the prior lower high, signifying that the downtrend remains strong. Identifying a BOS gives traders valuable clues about the continuation of the current market direction. Change of Character (CHoCH) The Change of Character in a market happens when there is a noticeable alteration in the behaviour of price movements, suggesting a potential reversal of a given trend. This might be seen in an uptrend where the price fails to reach a new high and then breaks below a recent higher low, indicating that the buying momentum is waning and a bearish reversal is possible. Identifying a CHoCH helps traders recognise when the market momentum is shifting, which is critical for adjusting positions to capitalise on or protect against a new trend. Market Structure Shift (MSS) A Market Structure Shift is a significant change in the market that can disrupt the existing trend. This specific type of CHoCH is typically marked by a price moving sharply (a displacement) through a key structural level, such as a higher low in an uptrend or a lower high in a downtrend. These shifts can signal a profound change in market dynamics, with the sharp move often preceding a new sustained trend. Recognising an MSS allows traders to reevaluate their current bias and adapt to a new trend, given its clear signal. Order Blocks Order blocks are a central component of ICT trading, providing crucial insights into potential areas where the price may react strongly due to significant buy or sell interests from large market participants. Regular Order Blocks A regular order block is an area on the price chart representing a concentration of buying (demand zone) or selling (supply zone) activity. In an uptrend, a bullish order block is identified during a downward price movement and marks the last area of selling before a substantial upward price movement occurs. Conversely, a bearish order block forms in an uptrend where the last buying action appears before a significant downward price shift. In the ICT trading strategy, order blocks are seen as reversal areas. So, if the price revisits a bullish order block following a BOS higher, it’s assumed that the block will hold and prompt a reversal that produces a new higher high. Breaker Blocks Breaker blocks play a crucial role in identifying trend reversals. They are typically formed when the price makes a BOS before reversing and breaking beyond an order block that should hold if the established market structure is to be maintained. This formation indicates that liquidity has been taken. For instance, in an uptrend, if the price creates a new high but then reverses below the previous higher low, the bullish order block above the low becomes a breaker block. A breaker block can be an area that prompts a reversal as the new trend unfolds; it’s a similar concept to support becoming resistance and vice versa. Mitigation Blocks Mitigation blocks are similar to breaker blocks, except they occur after a failure swing, where the price attempts but fails to surpass a previous peak in an uptrend or a previous trough in a downtrend. This pattern indicates a loss of momentum and potential reversal as the price fails to sustain its previous direction. For example, in an uptrend, if the price makes a lower high and then breaks the structure by dropping below the previous low, the order block formed at the previous low becomes a mitigation block. These blocks are critical for traders because they’re also expected to produce a reversal if a new trend has been set in motion. Liquidity Liquidity refers to areas on the price chart with a high concentration of trading activity, typically marked by stop orders from retail traders. Buy- and Sell-Side Liquidity Buy-side liquidity is found where there is a likely accumulation of short-selling traders' stop orders, typically above recent highs. Conversely, sell-side liquidity is located below recent lows, where bullish traders' stop orders accumulate. When prices touch these areas, activating stop orders can cause a reversal, presenting a potential level of support or resistance. Liquidity Grabs A liquidity grab occurs when the price quickly spikes into these high-density order areas, triggering stops and then reversing direction. In ICT theory, this action is often orchestrated by larger players aiming to capitalise on the flurry of orders to execute their large-volume trades with minimal slippage. It's a strategic move that temporarily shifts price momentum, usually just long enough to trigger the stops before the market direction reverses. Inducement An inducement is a specific type of liquidity grab that triggers stops and entices other traders to enter the market. It often appears as a peak or trough, typically into an area of liquidity, in a minor counter-trend within the larger market trend. Inducements are designed by smart money to create an illusion of a trend change, prompting an influx of retail trading in the wrong direction. Once the retail traders have committed, the price swiftly reverses, aligning back with the original major trend. Trending Movements In the Inner Circle Trading methodology, two specific types of sharp trending movements signal significant shifts in market dynamics: fair value gaps and displacements. Fair Value Gaps A fair value gap (FVG) occurs when there is a noticeable absence of trading within a price range, typically represented by a swift and substantial price move without retracement. This gap often forms between the wicks of two adjacent candles where no trading has occurred, signifying a strong directional push. Fair value gaps are important because they indicate areas on the chart where the price may return to "fill" the gap, usually before meeting an order block, offering potential trading opportunities as the market seeks to establish equilibrium. Displacements Displacements, also known as liquidity voids, are characterised by sudden, forceful price movements occurring between two chart levels and lacking the typical gradual trading activity observed in between. They are essentially amplified and more substantial versions of fair value gaps, often spanning multiple candles and FVGs, signalling a heightened imbalance between buy and sell orders. Other Components Beyond these ICT concepts, there are a few other niche components. Kill Zones Kill Zones refer to specific timeframes during the trading day when market activity significantly increases due to the opening or closing of major financial centres. These periods are crucial for traders as they often set the tone for price movements based on the increased volume and volatility: Optimal Trade Entry An optimal trade entry (OTE) is a type of Inner Circle trading strategy, found using Fibonacci retracement levels. After an inducement that prompts a displacement (leaving behind an FVG), traders use the Fibonacci retracement tool to pinpoint entry areas. The first point is set at the major high or low that prompts the displacement, while the second point is set at the next significant swing high or low that forms. In a bearish movement, for example, the initial point is set at the swing high before the displacement and the subsequent point at the new swing low. Traders often look to the 61.8% to 78.6% retracement level for entries. Balanced Price Range A balanced price range is observed when two opposing displacements create FVGs in a short timeframe, indicating a broad zone of price consolidation. During this period, prices typically test both extremes, attempting to fill the gaps. This scenario offers traders potential zones for trend reversals as the price seeks to establish a new equilibrium, as well as key levels to watch for a breakout. The Bottom Line Understanding ICT concepts gives traders the tools to decode complex market signals and align their strategies with the influential trends shaped by the largest market participants. For those looking to apply these sophisticated trading techniques practically, opening an FXOpen account can be a great step towards engaging with the markets through a robust platform designed to support advanced trading strategies. FAQs What Are ICT Concepts in Trading? ICT (Inner Circle Trading) concepts encompass a series of advanced trading principles that focus on replicating the strategies of large institutional players. These concepts include liquidity zones, order blocks, market structure shifts, and optimal trade entries, all aimed at understanding and anticipating significant market movements. What Is ICT in Trading? ICT in trading refers to the Inner Circle Trading methodology, a strategy developed to align smaller traders’ actions with those of more influential market participants. It utilises specific market phenomena, such as order blocks and liquidity patterns, to analyse price movements and improve trading outcomes. What Is ICT Trading? ICT trading is the application of concepts that seek to identify patterns and structures that indicate potential price changes driven by institutional activities, aiming to capitalise on these movements. What Is ICT Strategy? An ICT strategy combines market analysis techniques to identify where significant market players are likely to influence prices. This includes analysing price levels where large volumes of buy or sell orders are anticipated to occur and identifying key times when market moves are most likely. Is ICT Better Than SMC? Comparing ICT and SMC (Smart Money Concept) is challenging as ICT is essentially a subset of SMC. While SMC provides a broader overview of how institutional money influences the markets, ICT offers more specific techniques and terms like inducements and displacements. Whether one is better depends on the trader’s specific needs and alignment with these methodologies’ intricacies. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
EURUSD - Potential Reversal Zones and ScenariosThis 4-hour chart of EURUSD highlights potential Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) that could act as strong areas of support and possible reversal zones. Price action is currently trending within a descending channel, with three possible bullish scenarios outlined: 1. A breakout from the upper boundary of the channel leading to an immediate bullish move. 2. A retracement into the first FVG zone, followed by a reversal upward. 3. A deeper retracement into the second FVG, aligned with the 0.618-0.65 Fibonacci retracement level, before a strong bullish rebound. Keep an eye on these levels for high-probability trade setups. Patience is key!
Long
by Louigi_24
10
Gold Price Outlook: Key Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Potential PriceThis 4-hour chart of Gold/USD highlights a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone in the $2,960 - $2,980 range. The chart outlines two potential scenarios: 1. A bullish reaction with a price push toward the $3,040 resistance level. 2. A bearish move breaking below the FVG, targeting the $2,880 support zone. Traders should monitor price action within the FVG for confirmations, with upcoming economic events marked at the bottom as potential catalysts.
FX:XAUUSD
by Louigi_24
14
EURUSD - Will Bears Keep Pushing Lower?Overview of Market Structure The EUR/USD pair has been experiencing strong bullish momentum over the past few weeks, leading to the creation of an extended bullish leg. However, as with most impulsive moves, the market has left behind imbalances—price inefficiencies where the market moved too quickly without sufficient pullbacks to ensure order fulfillment. Recently, we have observed a break in bullish structure, signaling a potential shift in momentum. This break suggests that the market may now be in a phase where it seeks to rebalance inefficiencies before deciding its next directional move. My expectation is that price will first retrace to fill the imbalance zone above, which acts as a supply area, before reversing and targeting the imbalance zones left behind in the bullish rally. Key Resistance and Market Rejections A crucial area in this setup is the strong resistance zone (marked in red), which has been rejected twice. Each time price attempted to break through, sellers stepped in, pushing price lower. This level serves as a significant supply zone where institutions may have unfilled sell orders. With this in mind, the most logical movement for price would be to return to this area, collect liquidity, and then initiate a bearish move. Imbalance Zones and Market Efficiency Imbalance zones are areas on the chart where price has moved too quickly, leaving behind inefficiencies. These areas often get revisited later as price seeks to rebalance liquidity. There are two key imbalance zones in this setup: The imbalance zone above the current price (first target) – This is the area where price is expected to retrace before reversing. The imbalance zone below the current price (final target) – Created during the rapid bullish rally, this area remains untested and is likely to be filled once bearish momentum takes over. These zones are high-probability areas where price is expected to react due to unfulfilled institutional orders. Break of Bullish Structure & Shift in Momentum A key element of this trade idea is the break in bullish structure. This break was confirmed when a bearish candle closed below the previous higher low, invalidating the uptrend. This structural shift suggests that bulls may be losing control, and a deeper retracement is likely before any potential continuation of the overall trend. The break also increases the probability of the lower imbalance zone getting filled before the market makes its next major move. Trade Execution Plan Step 1: Identify the Optimal Short Entry Wait for price to fill the imbalance zone above. Once confirmation is seen, a short position can be entered. Step 2: Bearish Move to Lower Imbalance Zone After rejection from the supply zone, expect price to break lower. The target for this move will be the imbalance left behind in the bullish rally. Trailing stop-loss can be used to maximize profits while reducing risk. Why This Trade Has High Probability Market Favors Liquidity Grabs – The imbalance zone above is a likely liquidity grab area before the bearish move. Break in Market Structure – The recent bearish structure break increases the probability of downside continuation. Historical Resistance Rejection – The resistance zone above has already rejected price twice, indicating strong selling pressure. Imbalance Fill Below – Price tends to fill inefficiencies left behind in fast-moving markets, making the lower imbalance zone a logical target. Risk Management Considerations Stop-loss should be placed slightly above the imbalance zone above to protect against unexpected breakouts. Take-profit should be set at the lower imbalance zone, allowing for a strong risk-to-reward ratio. If price breaks past the resistance zone above without rejection, it would invalidate this bearish setup, signaling a reevaluation of market conditions. Conclusion This trade idea is based on a smart money concept (SMC) approach, focusing on liquidity grabs, imbalance fills, and structural shifts. If the market follows the expected path, we could see price first push up to fill the imbalance above, reject from that level, and then begin a bearish move to fill the imbalance left in the previous bullish rally. By patiently waiting for price to reach key areas and confirming rejections, this trade setup provides a high-probability opportunity with a strong risk-to-reward ratio. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Short
by TehThomas
21
US500 - Are Bulls Setting Up for a Bullish Push?Overview of Market Structure The US500 has been trading in a well-defined bearish channel for an extended period, continuously making lower highs and lower lows. This downtrend was respected until recently, when the price broke out of its bearish structure, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. Following the breakout, price also breached a key resistance level (marked in red), which had previously acted as a significant supply zone. Now that this resistance has been broken, it may flip into a support level, offering a high-probability area for a bullish continuation. I expect price to retest this newly-formed support zone before continuing its move upward, targeting the unfilled imbalance zone above (highlighted in green). Breakout of the Bearish Structure One of the most important aspects of this setup is the confirmed breakout of the bearish structure. The market was respecting a descending channel, creating lower highs and lower lows. However, with this breakout, price is no longer following the previous downtrend pattern. A breakout like this often leads to a shift in market direction, meaning buyers are now in control, and the next likely move is bullish continuation. Resistance Break & Potential Support Retest The red zone represents a major resistance level that has now been broken. This area had previously rejected price multiple times, showing that sellers were strongly defending it. Now that price has successfully closed above this level, we can anticipate a retest of this area as new support before price resumes its move higher. This is a classic example of a resistance-turned-support flip, a key concept in technical analysis. Imbalance Zones & Price Efficiency An important part of this trade setup is the unfilled imbalance zone above. When price moves too quickly in one direction, it often creates gaps or inefficiencies in the market, which tend to get revisited later. The unfilled imbalance zone above (highlighted in green) is a key target for this bullish move. Price is likely to fill this inefficiency after confirming support at the previous resistance level. Since price action tends to seek out liquidity and inefficiencies, this gives us a clear roadmap for the next likely movement in the market. Why This Trade Has High Probability Breakout of Bearish Structure – This suggests a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. Resistance Turned Support – A classic market structure retest that provides strong confluence for a bullish move. Imbalance Fill – The market tends to fill inefficiencies left in impulsive moves, making the imbalance zone above a logical target. Liquidity Grab Potential – Retesting the broken resistance could serve as a liquidity grab before price moves higher. Conclusion This setup provides a high-probability long opportunity based on a bearish structure breakout, resistance-turned-support retest, and imbalance fill target. If price follows the expected path, we should see a retest of the red zone before a bullish continuation into the imbalance zone above. By patiently waiting for price confirmation at key levels, this trade offers a strong risk-to-reward ratio while aligning with smart money concepts and price efficiency principles. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
FPMARKETS:US500Long
by TehThomas
27
GBPUSD – Bearish Setup Forming | Fair Value Gap Rejection PlayThe 4H chart on GBP/USD shows a clean bearish market structure, with price currently in a corrective phase after recent downside momentum. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) has been identified between the 1.29700–1.30000 range, which acts as a key supply zone for potential short setups. 📊 Technical Breakdown 1. Fair Value Gap (FVG) A visible imbalance was left after an aggressive bearish move—marked in the yellow zone. Price is expected to retrace into this inefficient zone to fill orders before continuing downward. The anticipated entry for shorts is around 1.29798, near the midpoint of the FVG. 2. Bearish Market Structure Lower highs and lower lows dominate the current structure. The bounce is corrective in nature and lacks momentum, indicating a potential bull trap. Expecting a short-term retracement up to the FVG zone, followed by a continuation to the downside. 3. Target Zone Target: 1.28042 — this level sits just above a previous demand zone, making it a natural TP1. This area also overlaps with previous price reactions, giving it high confluence. 🧠 Trade Idea Entry: ~1.29798 (within the FVG) Target: 1.28042 Risk Management : A stop loss above 1.30000 or above the upper boundary of the FVG to account for false breaks. Rationale: Risk-reward is favorable due to tight invalidation zone and strong downside continuation probability. ⚠️ Key Notes Watch for confirmation at the FVG zone such as bearish engulfing or lower timeframe break of structure. If price breaks above 1.3000 and holds, the idea will be invalidated.
Short
by ForexOptimizer
US100 - Testing Key Resistance: Will the 4H Trend Reverse?Market Structure & Trend Overview The Nasdaq (US100) has been in a 4-hour uptrend, forming a series of higher lows and respecting an ascending channel after a prolonged bearish trend. This structure suggests that buyers are stepping in, and momentum may be shifting in favor of the bulls. However, the index remains at a critical decision point that could determine whether we see a confirmed bullish reversal or a continuation of the larger downtrend. Key Zone: 4H Imbalance & Resistance Area Currently, price action is testing a 4-hour imbalance zone, which has already acted as a strong resistance level twice. The market is struggling to break through this supply zone, which is crucial in determining the next major move. If price tests this area again and successfully breaks above it, it could confirm that buyers have gained control, signaling a potential trend reversal back into a bullish phase. However, if price gets rejected from this level again, it could indicate that sellers are still dominant, increasing the probability of a breakdown from the ascending channel and a resumption of the bearish trend. Bullish Scenario: Break & Hold Above Imbalance Zone For a confirmed bullish reversal, Nasdaq must break above the imbalance zone with strong volume and sustain price action above it. A successful breakout could attract more buyers, leading to a push towards higher resistance levels, possibly targeting the $20,000 - $20,300 range in the short term. Signs to look for in a bullish breakout: ✅ A decisive close above the imbalance zone with strong bullish momentum. ✅ Retesting the broken level as support, confirming it as a new demand zone. ✅ A continuation of higher highs and higher lows after the breakout. Bearish Scenario: Breakdown of the Ascending Channel If price fails to break through the imbalance zone and instead rejects for the third time, this could indicate a weakening bullish structure. The key support to watch is the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A confirmed break below this channel could invalidate the short-term uptrend, signaling a return to bearish price action. If this occurs, Nasdaq could drop towards the key support level at $19,146, a previous liquidity zone where buyers may step in again. Signs to watch for a bearish breakdown: ❌ A clear rejection from the imbalance zone. ❌ A break and close below the ascending channel. ❌ Increased selling pressure and a shift in market sentiment. Final Thoughts: A Critical Inflection Point Nasdaq is at a pivotal moment where the next move will determine the broader trend direction. If bulls can push price above the imbalance zone, we could see a confirmed bullish reversal with upside potential. However, if sellers regain control and force a breakdown of the channel, the downtrend is likely to continue, targeting the $19,146 level as a potential support zone. Traders should closely monitor price action at the imbalance zone and the ascending channel boundaries, as these key areas will dictate the next major move. Whether we see a trend reversal or continuation, this setup presents significant trading opportunities in either direction. Key Levels to Watch: 📍 Bullish Breakout Target: $19,900 - $20,000 📍 Bearish Breakdown Target: $19,146 __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
FPMARKETS:US100
by TehThomas
22