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Fakebreakout

AUD/NZD: Potential Short Opportunity: False Resistance BreakoutThe AUD/NZD pair is currently exhibiting signs of a false breakout at the resistance level of 1.1145, subsequently forming a rejection Pinbar, which indicates that sellers may be regaining control in the short term. What is a False Breakout? A false breakout occurs when the price briefly exceeds a key support or resistance level, only to swiftly reverse and return to the opposite side. In this instance, the price momentarily broke above the 1.1145 resistance, yet the insufficient buying pressure led to an immediate rejection. This behaviour suggests that sellers were poised above this level, ready to enter the market. False breakouts can often result from market manipulation, where institutions and major players seek to trigger stop-loss orders from traders positioned near support and resistance levels. By instigating an initial breakout, they create liquidity for large contrarian positions. Reversal Signal A false breakout, particularly when accompanied by candlestick formations like the Pinbar, often indicates a potential trend reversal. In this case, the failed breakout signifies that buyers who attempted to sustain the move upwards were unsuccessful. Current Scenario : Has the False Breakout Been Confirmed? The 1.1145 level represents the highest price since 2022, establishing it as a significant resistance zone. The initial breakout above this level was swiftly followed by a strong rejection, illustrated by the long wick at the top of the Pinbar candlestick. This pattern underscores the weakness among buyers and suggests renewed strength among sellers. Possible Short Opportunity If the price breaks below 1.1090, we may expect a more substantial downward movement over the following days. First Target: 1.0880 This target corresponds to a notable support zone, aligning with previous lows and the projection of the rising trend line established since February. Final Target: 1.0780 This represents a significant area, marking an important horizontal support level observed over recent months. Stop Loss: A suitable stop loss could be placed above the Pinbar high at around 1.1180 to protect against an unexpected reversal. Alternative Scenario: Resistance Broken The recent sequence of green candles with elongated bodies and minimal upper shadows suggests a potential alternative scenario, wherein there may be sufficient buying pressure to breach the resistance level in the coming days. A buying opportunity could materialise if the price breaks above 1.1200. Next Targets: In the event of a breakout, the first target could be around 1.1300, with a final target at 1.1450, where the AUD/NZD would encounter significant resistance on the weekly chart. The AUD/NZD pair is at a critical technical juncture at 1.1100, indicating a potential false breakout of resistance. It is essential to monitor price action closely in the upcoming sessions. A sustained downward movement, particularly a break below 1.1090, would reinforce the selling pressure, while a breakout above 1.1200 could signal a continuation of the upward trend towards 1.1450. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Short
by Marketscom
2
GOLD - Price can make small move up and bounce down to $2540Hi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Some time ago price moved up inside the rising channel, where it at once fell below $2500 support level, breaking it. Later price grew to resistance line of channel, but then declined back to support line and soon repeated movement up. Gold broke $2500 level and later rose to next support level, and when it reached this level it broke it and exited from flat. Next, price started to trades inside flat, where it rose to top part and after some time traded near it made correction. Recently XAU bounced back and now tried to grow higher and I think it can rise a little more and then bounce down to $2540 If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WalterMoon
6
MANTA - FAKEOUT FROM DAILY TRIANGLE PATTERN ! MANTA Network (MANTA), a privacy-focused DeFi project, has recently exhibited a bullish breakout that suggests significant price appreciation in the coming weeks and months. The token broke out of a descending triangle pattern, signaling a potential trend reversal and a surge towards its all-time high of $10. Deceptive Breakout and Liquidity Sweep: MANTA's price action initially appeared to break down from the triangle pattern, reaching a low of $1.70. However, this move was likely a deceptive maneuver to shake out weak holders and accumulate liquidity at lower prices. The subsequent sharp reversal and breakout confirmed the bullish intent behind the price action. Liquidity Imbalance as the Only Hurdle: With the triangle breakout successfully executed, the primary obstacle to MANTA's upward trajectory lies in the form of a liquidity imbalance around the $2.20 to $2.50 price range. Once this imbalance is absorbed, MANTA is poised for a unimpeded run towards its $10 target. MANTA Network: A Privacy-Focused DeFi Solution: MANTA Network is a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol that offers privacy-preserving solutions for lending, borrowing, and stablecoin issuance. Its unique privacy features address a critical need in the DeFi space, where transparency can sometimes expose users to financial risks and identity theft. Key Features of MANTA Network: Private DeFi Transactions: MANTA utilizes zk-SNARKs, a zero-knowledge proof technology, to shield transaction details, protecting user privacy. Decentralized Governance: MANTA is governed by its community of token holders, ensuring a transparent and democratic decision-making process. Diverse DeFi Products: MANTA offers a range of DeFi products, including a privacy-preserving lending protocol, a stablecoin issuance platform, and a decentralized exchange (DEX). Conclusion: MANTA Network's recent breakout from the descending triangle, coupled with its strong fundamentals and privacy-focused approach, positions it as a promising investment opportunity in the burgeoning DeFi sector. With the liquidity imbalance around the $2.20 to $2.50 price range as the only significant hurdle, MANTA is well-poised to embark on a significant upward trajectory towards its $10 target and potentially beyond.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
ICP: MONDAY FAKEOUT AND BULLISH PUMP ! Internet Computer (ICP) has once again demonstrated its resilience by bouncing off a critical support level at $11. This price action suggests that ICP may be poised for a rebound and a potential continuation of its upward trajectory. Key Support Level and Reaction: ICP has consistently shown strong support at the $11 level, bouncing back from this zone on several occasions. This repeated reaction highlights the significance of this support level and the potential for ICP to find footing there. Anticipated Price Movement: While ICP has bounced off the $11 support, I anticipate a further downward move to retest the psychological round number of $10. This retest is a common occurrence in the market, as traders often pay attention to round numbers. Bullish Continuation Setup: The potential retest of $10, followed by a reversal, could set the stage for a significant bullish continuation. This price action would create a classic "bullish flag" pattern, indicating potential upside momentum. Abundant Liquidity Above Trendline: A crucial factor supporting the bullish outlook is the presence of significant liquidity above the downward trendline. This liquidity pool could act as fuel for a strong upward move once ICP breaks through the trendline. Conclusion: ICP's recent price action at the $11 support level suggests a potential rebound and continuation of its upward trend. The anticipated retest of $10, followed by a bullish flag pattern formation, could pave the way for a substantial price surge. The abundant liquidity above the trendline further strengthens the bullish case.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
Bad EU data momentum trade (Apr 3)Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: There was a lower than consensus Inflation data and a bad Unemployment print. I use these as triggers for a short-term momentum trade. CAD: Canadian economy is doing better than EU based on the main economic indicators. CAD is undervalued based on a few market internals (not EURCAD pairs though) Technical & Other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 1h Medium term: Down Long-term: Range Min target: April 2 low Risk: 0.27% Other: expected a rejection from the heavy MAs
Short
by Cherry94
AVAX : Fake Triangle Breakout ! AVAX has been forming a triangle pattern for an extended period. The price was respecting the triangle and making higher lows. Everyone was expecting a bullish breakout and continuation of the uptrend. However, the price reacted to the fall of Bitcoin and started to fall with it. The triangle pattern: The triangle pattern is a neutral pattern that can be either bullish or bearish. The price typically breaks out of the triangle in the direction of the previous trend. The fakeout: The price broke down below the lower trendline of the triangle on 1 April. The imbalance: There is a large imbalance of buy orders in the $44 zone. This imbalance suggests that the price is likely to bounce off this zone and continue to rise. Bullish targets: The first bullish target is the $60 level, which is the top of the triangle pattern. Further upside could see the price reach $70 or even higher.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
5
The Unspoken Mystery behind SL Hunting - Example: EaseMyTripThe Unspoken Truth & Mystery behind Stop-Loss Hunting: *** The Most Important Point *** Many Training Academies & Experts say it is Most Critical to have SL, but where ? How much % ? In Equity Delivery Trading (Not F&O / Not Intraday) – when you have done thorough analysis of stock and sector, more than SL, patience is key. Understand the Unspoken Truth – In Trading, Money is not grown organically – the Loss of one person gets to another one as Profit. If Everyone knows a scrip will bounce from a Strong Support – then how will Big Players make money ? By Cheating us, By Faking a Breakdown Scenario, By Stretching beyond our SLs. Although no one knows where we have placed our SLs, Big players know for the fact that a Retail trader won’t have their SLs beyond 10-15%. That’s the normal capacity. So, they try to shatter your patience, break your SL by a Fake Breakdown just beyond an average Retail player. Once our SLs have been hit, then they will pump in money aggressively to take the price Higher. This will hit the SLs of other set of Retail players who may have Shorted the scrip Intraday / F&O when the support was broken. Voila – the Big Players now have hit SLs of Retail players on both sides and will take the price much higher. On a Chart – this will appear as “Wick” on higher timeframe. A proper Breakdown of Support on Daily timeframe will appear as Wick on Weekly and weekly breakdown appears as Wick on Monthly. 2) Pattern Negation: While Taking a trade using Breakout patterns (Rounding Bottom, Inverted H&S, Cup & Handle etc…), the Pattern is Deemed as Negated when the price re-enters below the BO zone. But watch carefully on higher timeframe to ensure it is not a Fake Negation. At least we need to have patience to confirm negation of Pattern on Weekly Close. Even if it gets negated on Weekly – do not exit the trade on SL. Understand where the next major support is. Only if it is far down below – take a calculated decision to exit the trade on SL. Else hold patiently for the price to take support from the next Demand zone and bounce back. 9 out of 10 times (unless the sector itself is in negative sentiment) the price will bounce back / goes sideways accumulating power from the Demand zone. In the case of EasemyTrip - The Falling Parallel Channel / Flag Pattern breakout happended on Weekly and it had to cross the resistance at 46 to be deemed a successful Breakout. But even after Breakout, the scrip started falling down sharply below the 46 Resistance zone on Daily. But look at the Weekly Candle - Only Wick below. for 2 Weeks Big Players tried to scare-off weak hands by faking Breakdown again and again on Daily Timeframe. But on Weekly - for both the weeks only Wick is below 46 and candle ended above 46 zone confirming the Flag Pattern Break-Out as Successful and Still Valid Disclaimer: Stocks-n-Trends is NOT a SEBI registered company. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi--timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions. If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments -Team Stocks-n-Trends
NSE:EASEMYTRIPLong
by Stocks-n-Trends
EURUSD: Up but uncertainKarina Hello everyone, Yesterday EURUSD received some upward momentum and was in a correction wave as this pair has experienced a period of weakness since the start of the new week. Accordingly, the ECB's hawkish views have pushed back expectations of an early interest rate cut, further supporting the currency pair. However, the 4-hour chart is now trending further downward in the very near term as EURUSD approaches the 0.618 - 0.5 fibonacci retracement level. A break of 1.0844 would not see notable support until 1.0773 is reached. Karina still expects this pair to continue to decline, what about you, how do you think EURUSD will move?
by Karina_Bella
1
🌟 Forex Trading Tutorial: Trading a Fake Breakout✅🔍 Understanding Fake Breakouts: 🔸Spotting the Fake Breakout: In the chart, as highlighted, a green candle indicates a reversal above a certain level, signifying a fake breakout. This is where the market seems to break a support or resistance level but quickly reverses direction, invalidating the breakout. 🔸Qualities of the Confirming Candle: The candle that signals a fake breakout shouldn't be a weak one. It must clearly demonstrate that the breakout was fake, usually with a strong close in the opposite direction of the initial breakout. 📊 Trading Strategy for a Fake Breakout: 1. Position Entry: You can open a position based on these candles, capitalizing on the market's misdirection. 2. Stop Loss: Set the stop loss just below the low of the confirming candle. This placement limits your potential loss if the market moves against your position. 3. Target and Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for a risk-reward ratio of 2:1 to 3:1. This means for every unit of risk taken, you expect to gain two to three units in reward. For instance, if your stop loss represents a potential loss of 50 pips, set your target at 100 to 150 pips. 💡 Why It Works: This strategy works because fake breakouts often trap traders in the wrong direction. When the market swiftly reverses, it can lead to a strong move in the opposite direction as traders rush to adjust their positions. 📚 Educational Note: It’s crucial to practice this strategy in a demo account or with a small position size initially. Forex trading carries risks, and understanding market dynamics is key to successful trading. 🔑 Remember: Forex trading requires careful analysis, patience, and risk management. Always do your homework and trade responsibly! 🌍📚 #tradecitypro #forex #NZDUSD #breakout #fake_breakout
Education
by tradecitypro
1
BTC - Lower Time Frames X-rayIn every fake phase there is similarities : - Pervious Trend was massive - Classical Technical analysis patterns are forming in HTFs - Difficult to understand what "THEY" are doing (so what it will happen in result) - Lots of opposites in patterns, indicators reports and a gap between BUY scenarios and SELLs. 2 sides are probable to happen. - A SHARP move will accrue - There is fear of missing the trend Check if you can see this mental games in chart. Think outside the box. Think independently and shine alone like stars.
Short
by mentorify
34