BSV. Becareful of breakouts. Watch out!Hello friends,
I hope you're all well. I've been thinking of making SWOT and technical analysis videos for crypto and stocks. I really enjoy the fundamental analysis part, it's the wetstone used for sharpinng a dull knife(Decision), the technical part is the polishing of the knife(precision).
Okay so, Bsv is pushing up slowly, and Btc is fluctuating around $10,000.
Today I wanted to mention something that is against popular belief. In my chart it says, 'Don't buy breakouts(b/o) or resistance', it's means never buy when it's up. There is absolutely no benefit at buying at breakouts or before the resistance, because my question is, if I thought Bsv was going to go UP, why didn't I buy it at a lower price? If I bought it during Aprils lows, that low entry trade would reduced my risk of it going lower, because Bsv was already oversold. When I was a new trader, I was always taught by 'Gurus' to buy at B/O, everytime I did, it reversed against me, it would go back down. Breakouts are so risky and it reduces your profit margin. Lets assume we bough at #1 instead, having a long position there, that entry level would reduce our risk because it's near the bottom, and it would increase our profit margin because it's so far from resistance @ #2. This is the knowledge behind the golden rule 'buy low, sell high'. I feel so childish to had kept buying at upward B/Os. If I think Bsv is going up(Fundamental research kicks in), I'll buy Bsv in the dip. I never get in at the top no matter what, cause that reversal is a bigggg risk, and profit margin has been reduced.
Other than that, there isn't much going on besides increased Bsv utility usage, and Btc halving is in a couple of days. I think Bsv may do a fake B/O to the top then drop. My emotions are under control, I only buy dips and sell rallies, and I always average dollar cost or sell, so I get the lowest or highest average rate )). This my style and I haven't had a losing trade for a while.
If you want more information, you can always ask me, I'm okay with it.
I hope some of you found this information valuable, I would assume many of you probably already knew it.
Please like, share and follow. It means a lot to me. I'll keep you posted if the stocks or crypto make any drastic moves.
Have a good one. ))
Fakebreakout
GBPUSD Trading opportnunitiesOverall trend of the price is DOWN . Price has fallen down from descending triangle(orange) and has made fake breakout of the daily key level. Price was rejected at this level, we can also see bullish divergence (green) at this point. These two things strongly indicates that price should go up. Since overall trend is bearish it's risky to open long position. We can wait for the pull back to the local key level and look for short opportunities.
Please comment and let me know what you think about GBPUSD.
USDCAD BUYHELLO TRADERS! USDCAD is in a triangle Pattern. There is a failed breakout to the downside. We are buying to the top. It will most probably break the triangle above. Then it will go up at least the size of triangle. Its main target is 1.5000.
GOLD SHORT TRADEHello Traders,
Here you go for the GOLD analyst as gold has been make higher high at 1568, however the price has joined again within the range. I might be wait to see another retest at the zones in order to get the confluences for the confirmation prior to make the decision which the ideas is valid for the FAKE BREAKOUT or not.
Bear in Mind the core principles of your trading confluences would be much suggested, before taking the trade for the risk and proper trade management.
Cheers,
Ochin_FX
AUD/CHF LongAUD/CHF did the fake breakout, divergence spotted and now we want to hit TP on the Fibonacci retracement.
Gold Chart is like Pattern Lesson. 6-7 patterns in one graphWhen we look at XAUUSD 15 min chart, we can see 7 different pattern/formations.
From beginning in purple; we can see double bottom and than jump up.
Right after that in red; descending triangle forms and than decrease in price.
After one and a half day, bear flag forms in yellow.
When the bear flag completed, pink cup formation happens and price jumps to highest for the day.
By the time cup formation, RSI shows some tired moves. When the price increases RSI keeps descending and indicates bearish moves.
After two bullish formations, we can see the bearish flag in green. At the formation of bearish flag we can also spot the fake breakout in blue.
Gold look for LONG after Fake Break LowGold look for long,after those fake break low.
Price action break the support and no force to push it down and go above the support
means this support still work.
Buy to the next resistance above.
EURUSD, I'm waiting for BUY signalI will open buy after fake break of key level 1.11822:
- Price made strong pullback from this level few weeks ago.
- We can use small stop loss.
EUR/USD, buy if price will make a fake brokePriority: Long
Reasons for open position:
- Uptrend
- I see a several buy zone on the chart, but they are very risky
- S/L below level
If you like Idea, please push like and subscribe, it motivates me to post ideas more often.
FakeBreakout (EDU1)FakeBreakout how it works. Educational Idea 1
Learn to Detect helps to improve your trading skill.
Gold Short - Fake Break EffectAfter the release of U.S. CPI last night, the gold price eventually shot up and break above the top of a range at first.
Very soon, we see the price pulled back sharply as the dollar climbed again.
This is an obvious trap to lure buyers who go for the break-out.
So what's next? Will the buyers just leave because the price came back into the range?
What's gonna happen for the buyers to be forced out of the market?
Simple! The price needs to go lower, low enough for some buyers to give up, low enough to trigger stop losses, and low enough to burst some balloons.
It is unlikely that the price can still go back to the top of the symmetrical triangle as that will give chance for buyers who are trapped at the top to escape.
Once the dollar breaks new low, it would enter the demand zone very soon and that's when we can look for long again (refer to link below).
Gold Long - I think it's a FAKE break, You?For the past 8 day candles, the price closed with higher lows.
But alas! the ninth candle which we are seeing right now breaks out from the streaks.
Now, I wanna avoid the complicated stuff and just dive into 2 simple decisions:
1) The price is breaking below the range, the dollar is still climbing and so is the US stocks market. Imma gonna wait for a clean break, wait for a retracement, and go in for a short.
2) The price is breaking below the range, but heck! This could be a fake breakout just for institutional to go in for the long cheaper. Imma go for a long once the downside is settled.
Oh, there's a third choice by the way: Heck this! I don't wanna get involved in this shet anymore. Imma OUT.
For me, I choose (2). I am ready to take the risk here. The RRR is so attractive in this case so it is worth the bet.
I strongly believe that the dollar and the US stock is way overbought, and the structure of the gold points clearly to the upside.
As traders, we make our own decision systematically(trade what you see) and sensibly(manage risk and only take trades that's valuable).
US 30 May Be Headed for a Very Unmerry XmasTwain observed in Pudd'nhead Wilson;
"October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."
How about a December crash? If this model plays out Santa will by cryin'.
Notice rejection this week at TL. Downtrend continues. "Pie-in-the-sky" forecasts of Sand P 3000 and DowJonzed 30,000 are not likely at this juncture. Bull traps!
Retracements have been between .382 - 0.50, notice the Fibo bars (note arrows). If we enjoy a similar pattern on the next bounce could climb back as high as 25,500 or turn back sooner at 24400. There's a short entry window 100 pips wide.
If a five-wave complex down wave emerges the pattern could look like this projection, and a 4th wave might give another bounce before capitulation. Or not.. maybe it just breaks. There seems to be no bottom in this market, every day is a chance for 600-800 pip selloff. It's getting closer to real panic in my humble opine.
One day soon will go off 2K... GLTA
This ain't advice, it's just a funny looking chart with mostly random squiggles, they probably have no meaning, invest at your own risk!
US 30 ?Bear Flag forming Again? May be EW4 in downtrend- Danger!JW if this 3-day rally is another fakeout, has earmarks of a bear flag rally, very hard to call a bottom yet, consolidating, fluctuating.
Trading at area where price has provoked bear reaction, the EW model suggests we might expect retest of lows, and possibly a lower low.
Filling the gap down from 249 was expected, top of the gap = pivot & resistance; breakout above this level would signal a move up.
Bulling up through 250 would invalidate the model as 4th wave shouldn't break above low from 1st wave.
This isn't investment advice, just an idea, trade at your own risk; GLTA!
Zec morirá para renacer.Zcash está envuelta en una cuña descendente masiva que parecía haber roto con la formación de un triángulo descendente de 3 meses de duración. Esto confundió muchísimo, clásico de los falsos rompimientos. Se dice que un falso rompimiento es el doble de potente que en fuerza contraria al movimiento falso, por lo que se espera que la tendencia bajista continúe intensamente. Sugiero esperar a que se genere un patrón de reversa para sugerir el precio de compra.
US 30 ?Fake Breakout: Volume not ConfirmingToday's 400pt lift in Dow was unconfirmed by volume which declined as price rose. VOLUME DIVERGENCE violates basic Dow Theory:
The session volume in each day's trading reveals nearly all the session volume was traded before the thin air lift at the end of day.
A move against trend must be confirmed by increasing volume to be a true trend change, else it is merely a countertrend movement.
Expect this rally to fail and return to consolidate around price rotation area. Failure will likely lead to capitulation & panic-selling break down.
I could be wrong, but I'm buying a single put Wednesday to test my theory!
This is not investment advice, trade at your own risk and good luck!
USD/JPY - W1 - Trend/Channel line resistanceDoubled fake break out at trend/channel line + hammer candlestick pattern as confirmation.
