Fakeout
Bitcoin - DOUBLE TOP Weekly TimeframeA Double top in the weekly timeframe is never a good sigh - however, all is not yet lost.
One final pattern remains to be seen - and that is the Bump and Run method. Perhaps we can bump that diagonal support around 65k, retest the bulls' determination - and then make the final impulse wave up.
There is a fakeout observed on Dogecoin as well, and alts that have increased alongside BTC over the past week will likely fall pretty hard IF Bitcoin cannot keep closing ABOVE 65K.
______________________
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Tesla - False Bullish Breakout!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is almost back below resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Last month, Tesla finally managed to close above the resistance trendline of the long term descending triangle continuation pattern. However over the past couple of days, Tesla stock then tumbled and is now trading below the trendline, potentially creating a false breakout.
Levels to watch: $160, $220
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BITCOIN after the FOBO ! ( FAKEOUT BREAKOUT)
BITCOIN, after the FAKEOUT BREAKOUT, has re-entered the bearish channel that we’ve been monitoring for several months. This was a false breakout, which left many of us hopeful for a bullish market, but it turned out to be the opposite!
But no worries, we must wait. The important thing here is that, within the bear market we saw last week, the price bounced off a very important and key zone that we’ve been tracking for several months.
This purple zone is what I call my inefficiency zone, which I also consider one of the strongest areas where Bitcoin has previously made strong impulses.
The only thing we should consider here is that Bitcoin will likely try to break the channel again. We can’t do anything until the price is on the other side of the channel. It’s that simple! Don’t try to enter right now because the price could pull back. Always pay attention to the immediate structure being presented and WAIT!
We already have confirmation that the price has bounced within our inefficiency zone. Now, we just wait for the breakout, so patience is key!
That’s my advice for this week.
Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
Intel - (Much) Lower from here!NASDAQ:INTC is about to create such a massive higher timeframe candle - a drop is immanent!
Within one month, a setup played out and we are back to beginning. During the past 30 days, Intel rejected the support towards the upside with a move of +25% and immediately reversed the entire move. The monthly candle will close so bearish, I do expect a break below the current short term support, followed by a retest of the multi-year long support area.
Levels to watch: $30, $26
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Price Action on lower time framesMy First Video , showing how Price action can be a little deceptive if you don't check it on a lower time frame. I was learning some strategy that will help you identify fake outs early .. I am still learn how to identify them . Hope you enjoy the video. Thank you
I stated with GBP USD on TradingView Oanda July 14, 2024 From Day to 5 minute Time Frame and Discovered a Gap Event .
I also notice Shrinking Candle Before price dropped.
MANTA - FAKEOUT FROM DAILY TRIANGLE PATTERN ! MANTA Network (MANTA), a privacy-focused DeFi project, has recently exhibited a bullish breakout that suggests significant price appreciation in the coming weeks and months. The token broke out of a descending triangle pattern, signaling a potential trend reversal and a surge towards its all-time high of $10.
Deceptive Breakout and Liquidity Sweep:
MANTA's price action initially appeared to break down from the triangle pattern, reaching a low of $1.70. However, this move was likely a deceptive maneuver to shake out weak holders and accumulate liquidity at lower prices. The subsequent sharp reversal and breakout confirmed the bullish intent behind the price action.
Liquidity Imbalance as the Only Hurdle:
With the triangle breakout successfully executed, the primary obstacle to MANTA's upward trajectory lies in the form of a liquidity imbalance around the $2.20 to $2.50 price range. Once this imbalance is absorbed, MANTA is poised for a unimpeded run towards its $10 target.
MANTA Network: A Privacy-Focused DeFi Solution:
MANTA Network is a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol that offers privacy-preserving solutions for lending, borrowing, and stablecoin issuance. Its unique privacy features address a critical need in the DeFi space, where transparency can sometimes expose users to financial risks and identity theft.
Key Features of MANTA Network:
Private DeFi Transactions: MANTA utilizes zk-SNARKs, a zero-knowledge proof technology, to shield transaction details, protecting user privacy.
Decentralized Governance: MANTA is governed by its community of token holders, ensuring a transparent and democratic decision-making process.
Diverse DeFi Products: MANTA offers a range of DeFi products, including a privacy-preserving lending protocol, a stablecoin issuance platform, and a decentralized exchange (DEX).
Conclusion:
MANTA Network's recent breakout from the descending triangle, coupled with its strong fundamentals and privacy-focused approach, positions it as a promising investment opportunity in the burgeoning DeFi sector. With the liquidity imbalance around the $2.20 to $2.50 price range as the only significant hurdle, MANTA is well-poised to embark on a significant upward trajectory towards its $10 target and potentially beyond.
Pennant - EUHere I have EUR/USD on the 4 Hr Chart!
Price made a good push to the Upside surpassing the Highs earlier this month but then getting caught up by the Highs of April
Currently Price is bouncing back and forth between the Falling Resistance and Rising Support.
Potential False Break zones for both Resistance and Support are marked by the High and Low Points starting the pattern!
Pennants are patterns where the fight between Bears and Bulls is equal and eventually one will win out the other, this will be followed by a STRONG, CONVINCING Break of Pattern and Close to Validate the movement.
Fundamentally this week for both EUR and USD will be Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI being released Thursday!
As Indicators go:
-Above 200 EMA
-DSR Assist
-Above 50 RSI
-Super Nova Layout +3
EUR VS. USD, Traders @ Equilibrium?? Lets Navigate!Here I have EUR/USD on the Daily Chart!
This Spring of 2024 we can see Price of EUR/USD has kind of been "trapped" where you can see the Highs in March begin to follow a subtle Falling Resistance from the Local Resistance Zone, then CONFIRMED by the test of said trendline early April and NOW early May where we see Price has come to rest just below our Falling Resistance.
Countering that is the Rising Support from the Local Support Zone where Price tested three times in April.
Altogether, forming what looks to be a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern!!
-Basically showing us that traders are unsure where price may go, creating a point of equilibrium to where we eventually see a BREAK either BULLISH -or- BEARISH!
__ In the Event that the Symmetrical Triangle is BROKEN, I suspect we could see a potential 3%+ Price move in the direction of the BREAK given it is a TRUE BREAKOUT and not a FAKEOUT!
**This prediction sees Price testing the JULY/OCT levels of 2023 depending on which way we see the scale tip in strength between EUR and USD, making these levels our 1st Areas of TP!
Zones of Value:
July 2023 High Resistance ( 1.12298 - 1.11404 )
Local Resistance ( 1.10426 - 1.09812 )
Oct. 2023 Low Support ( 1.05167 - 1.04503 )
Local Support ( 1.07238 - 1.06601 )
Now fundamentally, DXY started this month with HOTTER than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and remarkable Manufacturing Prices but ended the first week with EXTREMELY poor Non-Farm Employment Change and Services PMI then to end last week with disappointing Unemployment Claims and UoM Consumer Sentiment
BUT
What's left to come this week may give us a clearer map to help us navigate this pair!!
USD-
PPI (Tues), CPI & Retail Sales (Wed), Unemployment Claims (Thur)
EUR-
ECB Financial Stability Review (Thur)
*More for EUR following week for news*
ICP: MONDAY FAKEOUT AND BULLISH PUMP ! Internet Computer (ICP) has once again demonstrated its resilience by bouncing off a critical support level at $11. This price action suggests that ICP may be poised for a rebound and a potential continuation of its upward trajectory.
Key Support Level and Reaction:
ICP has consistently shown strong support at the $11 level, bouncing back from this zone on several occasions. This repeated reaction highlights the significance of this support level and the potential for ICP to find footing there.
Anticipated Price Movement:
While ICP has bounced off the $11 support, I anticipate a further downward move to retest the psychological round number of $10. This retest is a common occurrence in the market, as traders often pay attention to round numbers.
Bullish Continuation Setup:
The potential retest of $10, followed by a reversal, could set the stage for a significant bullish continuation. This price action would create a classic "bullish flag" pattern, indicating potential upside momentum.
Abundant Liquidity Above Trendline:
A crucial factor supporting the bullish outlook is the presence of significant liquidity above the downward trendline. This liquidity pool could act as fuel for a strong upward move once ICP breaks through the trendline.
Conclusion:
ICP's recent price action at the $11 support level suggests a potential rebound and continuation of its upward trend. The anticipated retest of $10, followed by a bullish flag pattern formation, could pave the way for a substantial price surge. The abundant liquidity above the trendline further strengthens the bullish case.
BREAKOUT or FAKEOUT?? - EGHere I have EUR/GBP on the 4 Hr Chart!
Ever since its visit at the Support Zone @ ( .8534 - .8528 ), Price has been steadily making Higher Highs and Higher Lows with the most significant High in the Price Action being Friday's High reaching the Resistance Zone @ ( .8586 - .8581 ) on the release of LOWER than expected NFP numbers for USD ( 175K Actual - 238K Forecast )
Now not only did we get an enormous Bullish Break on Friday, but by market close, most of those gains were given back bringing Price back to the cycle of Highs it broke AND a Minor Support Zone.
So .. Is this a BREAKOUT or a FAKEOUT?!
I think to answer this question, it will come down to the Fundamentals as of late!
I believe EUR started to slightly overpower GBP Mar. 21st when BOE decided to HOLD their Interest Rates @ 5.25%
Then, Apr. 17th GBP gets the HOTTER than expected CPI of 3.2% with BOE Bailey making the comment that Inflation looks to have quite a STRONG DROP in May ... Followed by a very disappointing Retail Sales read of 0% on Apr. 19th ..
-COULD THIS MEAN GBP WILL BE THE NEXT UP FOR RATE CUTS?!?!-
Well on Thur. May 9th, BOE meets to take vote on whether they INCREASE, DECREASE or HOLD RATES
Also GDP Fri. May 10th ..
From a Technical standpoint, I want to watch for Price to either:
Find Solid Support at the Minor Level + Ranged Highs to continue higher
-OR-
Price to drop back down through the High/Low Range with a Bearish Break using Resistance from the Ranged Lows
-DOES THE BOE HAVE THE DATA INFRONT OF THEM TO LOWER OR HOLD RATES??-
Tesla - Is it a fakeout?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Tesla.
--------
Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2020 we had a decent break and retest on Tesla stock which was followed by a pump of +1.500% towards the upside. Then Tesla topped out in 2021 and we saw sideways movement ever since. At the moment Tesla stock is trading in a bullish flag formation and is hovering around the psychological $200 level. Soon there will be a very interesting trading opportunity on Tesla stock.
--------
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BONK - FAKE TRIANGLE PATTERN ! Be aware HAMSTERS 🐹!!!BONK is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 1-hour timeframe. This pattern is characterized by converging trendlines connecting a series of price highs and lows, creating a triangle shape. Symmetrical triangles are often considered continuation patterns, suggesting that the price is likely to break out in the direction of the prevailing trend.
Downward Breakout and Imbalance:
BONK has recently experienced a downward breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern. This breakout suggests a potential shift in momentum towards the bearish side. However, it is important to note that false breakouts can occur, and further price action is needed to confirm the breakout's validity.
Unfilled Imbalance:
Within the symmetrical triangle pattern, there is an unfilled imbalance zone between $0.55 and $0.60. This imbalance represents a price area where there is a higher concentration of sell orders compared to buy orders. Imbalances can act as magnets, pulling the price towards them to fill the excess orders.
Potential Retest and Bullish Breakout:
Given the downward breakout and unfilled imbalance, two scenarios could unfold:
1. Retest of 0.5 Imbalance Level:
The price could retest the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the imbalance, around $0.575. This retest could serve to shake out weak hands and accumulate liquidity before a potential reversal.
2. Breakout of Symmetrical Triangle:
If the price can hold above the 0.5 imbalance level and reclaim the symmetrical triangle pattern, it could signal a resumption of the uptrend. A potential target for the breakout would be the $0.70 resistance level.
Significance of False Breakouts:
False breakouts of symmetrical triangles are often considered bullish continuation patterns. This is because they can shake out weak hands and trap liquidity on the wrong side of the market, potentially fueling a subsequent breakout in the opposite direction.
Overall Outlook:
BONK's price action suggests a potential breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern, with the possibility of a retest of the 0.5 imbalance level before a potential bullish continuation. While a downward breakout has occurred, false breakouts are common in this pattern, and further price action is needed for confirmation.
Matic Fractals : Range => Shakeout => PUMP !!!MATIC has been exhibiting a peculiar pattern on the daily timeframe. The price has been accumulating lows twice now, followed by a sharp shakeout of those lows (liquidity grab), which then triggers a pump. This article will focus on the idea that history repeats itself in the market and how we can capitalize on this by identifying these patterns.
The accumulation and shakeout:
MATIC formed clear patterns of accumulation. In both cases, the price consolidated within a range for a few days, creating a cluster of lows. This was followed by a sharp downward movement, shaking out weak hands and stop-loss orders, which is a common market manipulation tactic known as a "liquidity grab."
The pump:
After the shakeout, MATIC bulls stepped in and started buying, resulting in a strong bullish rally. In the first instance, the price rallied from $0.80 to $1.20, a 50% increase. In the second instance, the price rallied from $1.00 to $1.60, a 60% increase.
History repeats itself:
The saying "history repeats itself" is often used in the financial markets, and this is a perfect example. MATIC has shown us a clear pattern of accumulation, shakeout, and pump twice in the past. It is reasonable to expect that this pattern could repeat itself in the future.
The opportunity:
The current price of MATIC is sitting at a critical support level. If the price breaks down below this level, it could invalidate the bullish thesis. However, if the price holds and starts to accumulate lows again, we could see a similar bullish rally to the ones we have seen in the past.
The trade:
If you believe that history will repeat itself, you could enter a long trade on MATIC once the price confirms a breakout above the current resistance level. A stop-loss order could be placed below the support level to mitigate risk.
Conclusion:
The MATIC chart shows a bullish pattern. The price has been accumulating lows and shaking out weak hands. This has happened twice in the past, and both times it was followed by a strong bullish rally. If history repeats itself, we could see a similar rally in the near future. However, traders should always do their own research and manage their risk accordingly.
Uni Fake Breakout of trend line ! Be aware ! UNI has been trading in a clear uptrend on the 4h timeframe. The price has been respecting the ascending trendline and making higher lows. However, the price is now approaching a strong resistance level at $13.
The ascending trendline:
The ascending trendline is a bullish pattern that is characterized by two converging trendlines, one connecting lower highs and the other connecting higher lows. The price typically breaks out above the upper trendline, signaling a continuation of the uptrend.
The resistance level:
The resistance level is a price level at which the price is likely to stop rising and start falling. This is because there are a large number of sell orders at this level.
The fakeout:
The fakeout is a bearish pattern that is characterized by a sharp increase in price, followed by a quick reversal and fall. This pattern is often used by large market participants to trap retail traders and acquire liquidity at higher prices.
The bullish scenario:
The price breaks out above the resistance level at $13 and continues to rise. The first bullish target is $20.
The bearish scenario:
The price fails to break out above the resistance level at $13 and falls back to the trendline. The price then retests the trendline and breaks down below it, signaling a reversal of the uptrend.
Conclusion:
The UNI chart shows a bullish pattern. The price is approaching a strong resistance level. The outcome of this level will determine the future direction of the price. Investors should always do their own research before investing in any cryptocurrency.
Triangle Pattern Trading: A Trap for NewbiesThe triangle pattern is a popular chart pattern that is often used by technical analysts to identify potential breakout opportunities. However, traders should be aware that the triangle pattern can also be a trap for unsuspecting beginners.
Why the Triangle Pattern is a Trap
One of the reasons why the triangle pattern can be a trap is that it is a very subjective pattern. There are no hard and fast rules for identifying a triangle pattern, and what one trader might identify as a triangle pattern, another trader might not.
Another reason why the triangle pattern can be a trap is that it is a very common pattern. This means that there are many opportunities for traders to trade this pattern, which can lead to overtrading. Overtrading is a common problem for beginners, and it can lead to significant losses.
Smart Money Traders and the Triangle Pattern
Smart money traders are aware of the fact that the triangle pattern can be a trap for beginners. They will often use this pattern to their advantage by creating false breakouts and trapping beginner traders into losing positions.
Here are four examples of how smart money traders use the triangle pattern to trap beginners:
NEO: formed a bullish triangle pattern. However, the price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout.
RVN: Rformed a symmetrical triangle pattern. The price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout.
DYDX: formed a descending triangle pattern. The price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout.
TRX: formed a bullish triangle pattern. However, the price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout.
How to Avoid the Triangle Pattern Trap
There are a few things that traders can do to avoid the triangle pattern trap:
Be aware of the subjectivity of the pattern. There are no hard and fast rules for identifying a triangle pattern, so traders should be careful not to get too caught up in trying to identify this pattern.
Don't overtrade. The triangle pattern is a very common pattern, which means that there are many opportunities to trade this pattern. Traders should be careful not to overtrade this pattern, as this can lead to significant losses.
Be aware of smart money traders. Smart money traders will often use the triangle pattern to their advantage by creating false breakouts and trapping beginner traders into losing positions. Traders should be aware of this and be careful not to fall for these traps.
Conclusion
The triangle pattern can be a useful tool for identifying potential breakout opportunities. However, traders should be aware that this pattern can also be a trap. By understanding the reasons why the triangle pattern can be a trap, and by taking steps to avoid these traps, traders can protect themselves from significant losses.
CADCHFCADCHF is trading in descending channel and printing consistent LLs LHs. Recently the price is broken the important support zone and now retesting the broken level, which is also the reasonable retracement level.
If the sell momentum continues the next target could be 0.6460
What you guys think of this idea?
Double Top w/ Caution!! - EJHere I have EUR/JPY on the 1 Hr Chart!
The HOT news on French PMI Thursday Morning followed by the Not-So Hot German and Manufacturing/Services PMI readings began the formations of a strong reversal pattern called a Double Top!
The mixed PMI results for USD seemed to ease Euros' decent
BUT
With 2.8% CPI and talks from the ECB of "possible Rate Cuts in March", this could make Euro start to look less favorable in the bucket of currencies!
Given that CONFIRMATION of Pattern is @ 162.649, I like to keep in mind the flipside of the coin and there are decent levels of Support in the ( 162.45 - 162.33 ) and ( 162.03 - 161.9 ) ranges!
*These could serve as opportune Fake-Out areas to turn this pattern into a Ranged pattern called a BULL FLAG!
-CONFIRMATION of PATTERN @ 162.649
-INVALIDATION of PATTERN @ 163.208