Don't know what to make of ADAADA looked like it was reversing to the upside A few days ago. However mind had changed when I started to see a continuation triangle forming clearly pointing to the downside, after repeatedly failing to break through 1.143USD.
ADA recently broke the continuation triangle to the downside only to be saved by BTC and the other alts rising in price simultaneously. Normally that condition would be bullish considering we rose through 1.15 to 1.179 the next resistance level, however ADA is lagging the other alts and will likely continue sideways in the meantime. To be clear we are still in a bullish bias but ADA is being dragged up with little momentum. The measured move of breaking the triangle to the upside is 1.243USD. The next strong resistance after 1.179USD is 1.29USD, it is likely we get trapped between these two levels before resuming again.
Happy trading
Fakeout
Why S and R works so good - Spring & Upthrust WyckoffWelcome Traders to a new Educational Posts.
Today we will have a deeper look at Support and Resistance. One of the most popular chart techniques out there, but the question?! Do they really work?
Absolutely YES. But probably not like most of the traders think they do. That simple Break and Retest Strategy. NOOO!
I would like to introduce you to the extended version of Support Resistance. The Wyckoff Spring and Upthrust.
Wyckoff Spring and Upthrust
In other words they are simply the Fake Outs at Support and Resistance Levels. The idea behind it is to get an entry exactly there where most of the trader will put their SL.
-> WHY?!
because of the LIQUIDITY
The whole market is based on Liquidity (Supply Demand). The bigger fish will always win. Those who have the bigger amount will always dominate here. Just FACTS . So how do you want to position yourself in the market. Exactly there were 95% of the Retail Traders will put there SL? Or do you want to change your perception on how you view the market.
This will completely change your view on the Forex Market.
Supply Demand
What I also do is I use my own style of Supply Demand to identify exactly those areas where most of the trader will put there SL and I will place exactly my Entry there with a very tight SL to get bigger Risk Reward. Of course I will not have that much of valid entries for my setups as they do not occur as often as Support Resistance Setups but the Total Risk Reward is a complete new Level. WHY?
Example Upthrust
Because you are rocking the market with the market movers. You are always clearing with these entries both sides.
#1 Sellers at Resistance because of Upthrust
#2 Breakout Trader(buy) because of Upthrust
Sell is the right decision in this case but most of the Traders will lose that Trade due to SL hit. Everybody is placing the Entry and SL different but the majority is losing this trade.
Spring Example
This was the bigger manipulation as the price did a strong move to the downside through the level of Support. This level was a very interesting level for Retail Traders to buy. Doji occured for Price Action Confirmation but the price dropped down to the level of Demand. Why? -> Liquidity. All SL were located there so Market Movers had there buy limit order placed exactly there.
Conclusion
With this Post I do not want to judge Retail Traders using Support Resistance. Maybe you found a nice Strategy with that and you are profitable. I am also using Support Resistance but simply in a different way as you can see. I just wanted to share with you my thoughts behind Support Resistance and how I use them to be profitable
Please leave a LIKE if you found this Post useful and share your thoughts below!
EUR/USD could move UP again!Hey tradomaniacs,
And once again we see a potential FAKEOUT in EUR/USD and so DXY (US-DOLLAR-INDEX) below the significant demand-zones 👉
Remember? This has been our long-entry this week! Equities have re-tested the lows of the asia-session, which also a reason for the current harsh moves down in majors vs. USD.
These retracements are not usual in a healthy market and shows how volatile it is.
Let`s see what we get later on, but if this level holds, we could open a long-position as soon as we got the confluence in the market.
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
AUD/USD BUY IDEAHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another free trading-setup.
Notice: This is meant to be a preparation for you! As always we will have to wait for a confirmation!
AUD/USD: Daytrade-Preparation
Market-Buy: 0,78450
Stop-Loss: 0,77900
Point of Risk-Reduction: 0,78935
Take-Profit: 0,79990
Stop-Loss: 55 pips
Risk: 0,5% - 1%
Risk-Reward: 2,90
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
AUDSGD short setupAUDSGD after trade hitting breakeven, market has gone for a stophunt for the second time collecting the liquidity from the short sellers and also inducing buyers into the market, now we have closed back below the descending triangle and the W formation on the daily timeframe can easily still be completed at the neckline, if we close back below support we will re enter on the retest.
Bitcoin potential rising wedgeIf you look at my previous related idea, Bitcoin broke the first triangle upside and it doesn't seem to be a fakeout at the moment.
Bitcoin could form a potential rising wedge giving an opportunity to play both short and long for swing traders and scalpers or DCA for holders.
It could recover 42K this month and breaking a new ATH around 45K if February performs the same performance as January.
GBPJPY SellHello Traders! GBPJPY completed its structure.
Below we can see the strong bullish movement. After that, the best thing is to wait for a corrective movement and sell to the first support.
We can see some fake patterns. Fake pattern helps to trade more easily as we know the exact patterns.
The target must be the first support after the bullish movement.
USD/CAD SELL IDEAHey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another free trading-setup.
Notice: This is meant to be a preparation for you! As always we will have to wait for a confirmation!
USD/CAD: Swingtrade-Preparation
Market-Sell: 1,28345
Stop-Loss: 1,27890
Point Of Risk-Reduction:1,26815
Take-Profit: 1,26100
Stop-Loss: 55 pips
Risk: 0,5% -1%
Risk-Reward: 2,25
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me!
Bitcoin in 2021Here I take two previous, patterned moves from 2017 and fit to current structure (fractal around June 2017). This gives me the ability to approximate its growth or decline over the next year. I then use these two situations to plot a general trajectory (dotted line). Finally, I estimate the curve for the 21 week moving average.
I foresee the possibility of a drop down between the 50 day and 100 day moving average on the daily time chart. My target buy region is between $30K and $26K.
Standard Fakeout Play In Progress on EURAUDKey details in Signposts.
[ Note that ideas published represent my viewpoints on structural directional movements. I do not post explicit trade parameters (i.e. entry, take profit, stop loss, etc.) as these are set to in reference with my expectancy. Since my win rate and R-multiple targets are different, ideas published are simply a resource to provide guidance. You are expected to manage your own trading decisions. ]
AUD/CHF - More Bears in the market from 0.69New pair on the analysis page!
We've seen a long term uptrend on the pair. Price currently trading in a range with price failing to make new highs (aside from the fakeout). Will see more bears enter the market during next week.
Many AUD pairs at the top of their respective ranges including AUD/JPY - see our previous analysis on the pair!
Happy Trading! Counting down the hours until market open!
Further Upside on CADJPY as 81.7 Resistance InvalidatesQuite a few Signposts on my chart as I've been monitoring this pair for quite a while. 81.7 was a structural resistance, which we'er seeing that it's no longer holding. Quite a few sellers were recently trapped, which is a good sign that we probabilistically can expect further upside.
[ Note that ideas published represent my viewpoints on structural directional movements. I do not post explicit trade parameters (i.e. entry, take profit, stop loss, etc.) as these are set to in reference with my expectancy. Since my win rate and R-multiple targets are different, ideas published are simply a resource to provide guidance. You are expected to manage your own trading decisions. ]
SPY PT $395 or $365The market is due for a correction, but the market never does what we want we want it, they only do it when we are not expecting. Ignoring that, looking at the chart appears to simply be a bull pennant. Break above the pennant, we will test highs and above that should trade to $395. Break below $377 and we should be heading towards $365.
Time frame: either should occur by the 19th.
Consolidation areaAUDCHF is in a sort of rectangle, the price seemed to have broken it on 31st of December but, pay attention, the volumes are very low and the rsi has created a DIVERGENCE, so I think that we are having a fake breakout, there are good chances for a drop towards the 200-day moving average (highlighted in green). The trade has a good risk reward ratio: 1:2.67.
It could be formewd a bullish shark pattern during next days, so id price action develops the D leg it will reach our take profit.
Use a proper money management.
I will update you soon!
Enjoy your trading!!!
Francesco
EURJPY continues the rangeEURJPY continues the range
Since the beginning of December, EURJPY has entered a sideways movement and is moving in the range of 100 pips.
A few days ago we saw a break, but very quickly the price came back.
The direction will become clear only after a definite break and test, but for those who are looking for an earlier entry and a much better risk-return ratio, the entry may be soon.
We are watching for a false break of the support, which will allow us to enter in order to:
127.18
127.66
128.10
If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us!
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HAPPY HOLIDAYS!
Fakeout Play On NZDCAD at 0.911
Standard fakeout trade opportunity.
Price briefly crosses above the 0.9110 level and fails to hold above.
After seeing price fail to close higher for one 4-hour session, good timing to optimize entry.
[ Note that ideas published represent my viewpoints on structural directional movements. I do not post explicit trade parameters (i.e. entry, take profit, stop loss, etc.) as these are set to in reference with my expectancy. Since my win rate and R-multiple targets are different, ideas published are simply a resource to provide guidance. You are expected to manage your own trading decisions. ]
Possible fakeout scenario similar to mid-August ($12,000 breach)Still a few hours away from daily close, but the similarities with the mid-August fakeout are interesting.
a) breakout volume with ~3 hours until close is not exceptional at all (2, 5);
b) RSI is on its way to confirm another bearish divergence (3, 6).
In my mind:
- losing $20,000 tomorrow would confirm a fakeout and I'd expect sell volume to pick-up;
- staying above prev.ATH with increasing volume invalides this idea and potentially confirms a new support level.
I believe risk to the downside to be bigger and expect volume to pick up tomorrow, regardless of direction, as we'll mark 3 years from the previous ATH on the same date back in 2017. Roubini must be mad af.
Manage your bias and keep a cool head, I don't believe we're there yet.
Cheers
o/