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Fakeout

Traps and Liquidity Searches Using Supply And DemandQuestion during my cooking show live stream was how do i determine a trap or a fake out? First of all i think everyone that trades a different methodology determines a fake out in their own way depending on their methodology the retail traders trades. Using the Supply demand methodology i explain how i determine traps. When i pull up a chart and i see an area that most trading methodologies are looking to buy or sell at. i.g., support resistance traders, supply demand traders, breakout traders, range based traders, fake breakout traders and many more different methodologies are looking to buy or sell in a certain area it's a trap. If im going to play the trap i need there to be a supply or demand zone above or below the area where the other retail traders are looking to buy and sell at.
Education
by MoneyballAustin
btc already attempting the deathcross fakeout?Looks like we may even break up from the wedge earlier than i was anticipating as we are witness a crazy amount of bullish volume in the last couple 1 day candles and btc has fought it's way valiantly back above the deathcross and is currently retesting the top trendline of the falling wedge multiple times as solidified support! if btc can maintain the top trendline of the wedge as support for the next 2 to 3 1 day candles it will almost certainly confirm the wedge breakout here in which case we have 2 two potential breakout targets. 1 at 12.9k and 1 at 13.6! if we were to hit either of these 2 targets it would save the bull market and we would likely continue much higher than that soon after but it all hinges on confirming this breakout 1st and maintaining support above the deathcross to insure it flips back into a sustained true golden cross
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
1
Bitcoin: Sluggish Sell Off Setting Up For Short Squeeze?Based on our swing trade strategy, a buy signal was generated on 9/30 at 8425. Since then, there has been no follow through which is not all that surprising in this environment. By recognizing bearish momentum still has greater control, we were careful to compensate for the elevated risk by taking a smaller position. Now we have two simple choices: exit the long early for a small loss, or continue to give Bitcoin a chance to find a new round of buyers. In this article I will explain our adjusted outlook and why we continue to give this trade a chance. The aim is to provide a glimpse into our decision making process and a technical point of reference to compare to your evaluation. 1. Price continues to fluctuate below the 8500 level (50% retrace of the 3150 low to 14K high). This is a lower high formation which continues to favor bearish momentum. This structure is beginning to lose credibility because price is NOT probing new lows yet. 2. The 7600 region continues to hold price up with the development of a minor double bottom formation off the the low 7700s. This is the basis for our swing trade long. The lows of the formation have YET to be taken out. 3. Long tails have appeared along the previous few candles since the minor bearish retrace has been in play. This is a clear sign that buyers are absorbing any supply that is over reacting to price noise on smaller time frames. We interpret this lack of bearish momentum as a subtle sign of strength (as long as the 7600 level is not compromised). 4. If price breaks the 7600 level, the next relevant support region is the 7275 to 5400 area. Again, this does NOT mean price will make it that low, but it does point to a greater chance of a broad bullish reversal forming around such a location. This is particularly attractive for position traders (investors). 5. The 7500 level is a high probability fake out area relative to the swing from 7700 to 8500. If a pin bar appears around this location, we will be open to taking a new aggressive long swing trade. Such moves are notorious for luring capital from those who focus on small time frames. These same participants provide the momentum and liquidity for the next leg higher (short squeeze). Keep in mind, these observations are relative to larger time frame strategies like swing trading. We do NOT short Bitcoin, even in the face of a bearish trend and we DO NOT consider time frames less than 12 hrs. These are rules that guide what information shapes our decision making process. Without such rules, we would be reactive rather than prepared for particular scenarios (market alignment). Our decisions are usually made around the open of the new candle at 8 PM EDT. The reason is simple: once the previous candle is closed, we have a much better idea of what to expect next. If Bitcoin cannot bounce over the next 5 hours, we will most likely close our position and lock in a smaller loss (since our stop is much lower). You don't have to been in every move to generate a consistent return, you don't have to have a high win rate, and you don't have to hit home runs. Performance consistency for any strategy or market is a product of your process. A process is a set of guidelines and rules that exist to remove emotional decision making and filter market information in order to better recognize QUALITY opportunities. In terms of swing trades, these opportunities or setups are infrequent (maybe 2 - 3 per month in this environment for Bitcoin). These rules must come from you because they need to be in line with your goals and risk tolerance. Buying or selling Bitcoin because someone else says so or because some line crosses another line on your 3 minute chart is NOT a well defined process. It begins with first, knowing your time frame, second, maintaining a focus only on information that is relevant to that time frame, and third, having a strictly defined technical setup to consider. From there you need to be able to evaluate this information against what is unfolding at the moment. The goal is NOT to make money, it is to minimize randomness and risk. Profit is the biproduct of a well defined process and flexible perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
Beware the 9600 fakeout!Below 9640 BTC is still bearish, above 10500 is bullish, between is chop. Those are the levels from an offline statistics script I've been using for longer term trend direction on BTC. I am fully expecting BTC to make some moves upward pretty soon and a lot of people are expecting that this pullback to 8k will be short lived. I would not be looking at it as a bull market until 10.5k and even then it will probably want to retest the chop zone at least once. Much more likely is it's going to range around bearishly for a while and you don't want to waste your powder buying fakeout blowoff tops. Far better is to go with the flow and trade the chart which right now is bearish. I am bullish long term BTC but for the time being I'm only looking for shorts.
by mljones
Why I still believe the Total2 chart h&s will be a fakeoutLook at the measured move drop target for the total2 1day chart head and shoulders pattern....no way is the entire alt market going down anywhere close to that far...that would involve all alt coins even top ones like ethereum, xrp, ltc, and bch going below zero. Of course h&s don have to hit 100% of their measured move target especially during a bull market but I think odds sill favor a fakeout...neutral for now though as we may see some more downside first.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by DrDovetail
1
EUR/USD: Day-Swingtrade-OPPORTUNITY#BUYHey tradomaniacs, welcome to another free signal of WEEK 39 Nr.3! Important: Wait for the market to violate our entry-point. After retracement and rejection -> BUY! ----------------------------- Type: Day-Swingtrade Buy here: 1,09962 Stop-Loss: 1,09802 Target 1: 1,10168 Target 2: 1,10288 Target 3: 1,10419 ----------------------------- LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
Long
by Trading2ez
6
EUR/GBP Breakout?Brexit deal on 31st of October will be highly unlikely, maybe there will be even a extension for a possible deal. Maybe there will be hard Brexit end of October. If it goes on like that, EUR/GBP remains bullish. European Central Bank will have monetary policy decision on 12th of September with a likely stimulating package of rate cuts, longterm low rates and help for the banks. Depending on size of package, Euro will fall. I will open 3 very small short positions on the resistance ans support line of last consolidating week, and a position on the next lower support. What is your opinion? Please comment and share your thoughts.
Short
by douzesse
Break out or fake out? News driven market.The consolidation finally broke after a month... or did it? Is this a fake? We might go and retest the all time highs at 3030.25, or we might fall back down and this be just a fake out. The market is trading on news and news ONLY! It has been for the last month. So why would that change now? The slightest bit of negative trade war news will send this right back down. Or, the slightest bit of positive trade war news will send this blasting thru the all time highs. This creates a dilemma for those that are good traders and actually do their homework... because, there is no rhyme or reason to this market insanity - the philosophy now, seems to be "trade the news!" From what I have seen, the vast majority of this market it comprised of gamblers, not investors or traders. There is a serious lack of market intelligence right now, and it's starting to frustrate me. Fundamentally and technically, the market is not in a good place. Not a terrible place, but not a good one either. However, the hope and prayer people continue to want to drive the S&P straight up with no correction, making things even more overpriced than they already are. I crunched some numbers last week, and the PE for SPY is about 35% overpriced (my numbers, so maybe I'm wrong), and that is after this recent fall from the all time highs. I am not doom and gloom; I do not think a recession is imminent, but I do think a good size correction is warranted and needed. But, I am being outmatched by very inept traders. So, I have decided to go neutral for a bit.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Bankuur
Gold: Break of Rising Structure, AgainThe gold has consolidated for more than a week since it broke new high at the beginning of last week. The price has made another attempt to break new high as it broke the top of the consolidation but came down quickly as it lost its buying strength at the previous high of 1555. There's a repeating pattern which shown the price fell as much as 300 pips once it broke below the rising structure (break of a rising trendline/bottom of a rising channel etc). Also, the gold price was already seen resisted at the to of a 3-month rising channel since it reached the highest price of 1555. The recent fakeout is very likely to cause a big amount of buy orders to be trapped and that's an indication that the price may continue to fall further. Traders may look to look for short-tern/intraday sell at the moment, stop loss set about 30-50 pips just above 1543 would be sufficient and targetting the demand zone around 1530.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by AlgoVenture
1
Bulls Win, But Not So FastSo on the after hours we have broken to the upside the next step would be a daily close to the upside. This is Bullish make no mistake about it. However, where are we really going to go 3050 is only 3% away. Remember the longer term charts are still very bearish. We still have the potential head and shoulders forming along with a long-term Megaphone pattern that so far has broken to the downside. I would not buy this breakout rally yet; we are overbought on short term and have bearish divergence, I want to see more evidence for the bull case. There are three potential scenarios: Trump tweets something and the breakout is sold off and they open the trap door, or some other negative news it proves to be a false breakout. More potential evidence is the fact that we are overbought on the short term charts and have bearish divergence. We slowly move up for the next weeks / maybe months but will eventually be sold off. The Megaphone proves to be a false break to the downside and we break out to the upside and go much higher- 10% or more above all time highs.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by rjchilia123
How to avoid Fakeouts and find breakouts for noobs You have to set support and resistance lines. those are easy to see levels of indecision. Then find the average price, this is used to signal the end of the channel when the price action finds it as resistance . If the price goes above the average price it will most likely going up and below, going down. set you buy limit slightly above the top of the channel because if its a fake out you'll buy when you target is hit then it'll drop down but if it is a real break out it'll keep going and then hit your target. When to sell is completely up to you. But I would sell before hitting the next level of resistance and getting stomped down. **If it goes down from the support line just stay away until it bottoms out and then restart this process.
BITFINEX:LTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn5174798
2
3daychart H&S pattern fakeout confirmed; must overcome 1day 50maVery positive sign here as we not only were able to crawl back inside the green symmetrical triangle pattern and prove the breakdown of that pattern to be a fakeout we also have managed to do the same with the big red ascending head and shoulders pattern before today's 1 day candle close; essentially confirming it's breakdown to have been a fakeout as well...patterns as massive as these 2 were can fake a lot of people out by closing multiple 1day candles below the trendlines...usually if you see this with no bearish momentum surge to go with it (and in this case bullish divergence was showing),then a fakeout is likely. In this case, it took about 6 1day candles from the time price action broke under the ascending red neckline of the h&s pattern to the time it climbed back above and confirmed the fakeout. The reason it was able to stay below the neckline so long without triggering the breakout is because the H&S pattern is actually most valid as a 3 day chart pattern instead of a 1 day chart pattern. The same appears to be true about the green symmetrical triangle pattern as well. Anyways currently we have just closed another 1 day candle just under the 1 day 50ma but more importantly above the ascending red neckline of the 3day head and shoulders pattern...We retested that neckline a few times before the close as well and was good to see it respond as solid support. As long as the red ascending trendline can maintain that support we should see price action flip the 1 day 50ma back to support as well. We also currently have a potential inverted h&s pattern that could be playing out here as well..if so we may see a slight pullback once we test the thin horizontal yellow line in order to complete a right shoulder...that is currently speculative but something to keep in mind.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
2
Bulls trying their best 2 prevent the approaching 4hr deathcrossThe bull flag definitely seems like it wants to trigger a bullish breakout here. Of course being still in the last 10 minutes of the 1 day candle anything can happen and we must remain patient and balanced until we get a better idea upon the daily candle close...we also need to keep a close eye on the top trendline of the broadening wedge's resistance(in red), and the 11113.83 horizontal trendline(in white)...I expected at least a wick above the white horizontal if we breakout but the horizontal may potentially maintain its resistance for candle close...if not the next resistance will be the 11271 horizontal (red) above that, and just above that 11585 descending green trendline which is currently the biggest resistance to overcome...it's the one thats maintained resistance this whole correction. . .still waiting to see where the current candle closes the daily at but looks good for a breakout currently..anything could change in the last 10 minutes though. Even if we do breakout though it may not be enough to prevent the 4hr deathcross from happening...however if we dont immediately nosedive after the cross then the cross will likely be a fakeout and shortlived. So very important here to see how price action reactts to any kind of deathcross...as long as price stays above both the 200(in blue) and the 50ma(in orange) i should result in a fakoeut. If not it will resume dumping.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
XRPUSD Impending Death Cross. What to expect:We can see here on h 1 day chart that the 1 day deathcross is imminent and will likely occur tomorrow or the day after at the latest. While at this point it does look like the initial cross will happen, My gut feeling based on fundamental developments and adoption in xrp, is that even if this initial cross does occur it will be short lived and proven a deathcross fakeout which will be reversed shortly there after back into a golden cross. Let's recall hat the beginning of the 2015 bull market for bitcoin began in a similar fashion where we got the 1st shortlived golden cross that then briefly went back into a deathcross before having it's real sustainable golden cross shortly later. I anticipate thee same kind of behavior this time around for xrp...however initially once this fake deathcross occurs price action could follow with it and we could see our current bearish descending triangle trigger a final capitulation breakdown and that triangle has a measured move down exactly to our super strong bottom support at 24.5 cents which is a good confluence point to skyrocket right back up at...however if the next breakdown that occurs is treating the current pattern more as a bearish pennant than a descending triangle then we could see a capitulation candle reach as low as 19-20 cents before the skyrocket back up. Lastly we could instead of a breakdown see an inverted bart pattern play out here in which case if it has a bullish enough impulse it's still possible we may avoid a deathcross altogether and instead see both moving averages bounce up off eachother. For something like that to occur at this point would require a green candle and bullish volume bar much larger than any we have seen for a long long time. All these things considered I think my wisest move here is going to be just wait for the break and if we dip down buy the dip at 28, 24.5, and again at 19-20 cens if we manage to make it that low. If worst case scenario price were to go under 16 cents at that point I may have to consider that the deathcross may not be a fakeout after all but that seems highly highly unlikely and low probability.
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by DrDovetail
1