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Fakeout

Bearish XXXJPY Scenario (USDJPY)Anticipating a move up to liquidity to capture stops (stop losses of sellers and buy stops for those who have been following the obvious uptrend) before seeing a price reversal. This opportunity can be planned out as greater than 3:1 reward to risk and may be something we see across other Yen pairs due to the upcoming BOJ fundamentals. This idea however is a low risk sell scenario based upon technical analysis. This analysis is not meant to substitute as financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you are responsible for the outcome if you choose to act on this trade idea. Stay Safe! I've personally placed a sell limit and it will be reevaluated if it has not been filled by Tuesday's IML TV Session at 12pm EST My order details: Sell Limit 109.900 Stop Loss of 20 Pips ~ remember to factor in broker spread etc.
by ZacharyHogan
Fakeout confirmed after lower high lower low now also confirmed.As I anticipated in my previous btc idea, the fakeout is now confirmed after we failed to achieve a higher high and we have now achieved a lower low to follow that lower high..always a recipe for a down turn...there is a chance that we could turn around in the 3.4-3.6 range to complete a right shoulder...but it's also very possible that we could just keep plummeting from there...I sold at 4125 so I get the comfort of waiting it out a little bit at that range and seeing if it dips any further before jumping back in...if you haven't already sold if I was in that situation I would probably just have to hold until I saw the price dip below the head and then would sell...although the bottom may only be as low as 2.8 which would make it dangerous to sell at that point too it may be as low as 1120 so if one knows how to set smart stoplosses that are neither too lose or too tight it may worth a risk at that point but much safer to simply add to your position at each additional leg down. I ahve a feeling we wont see a rebound until at least the stoch rsi on the daily chart dips down to the oversold zone and it still has a long way to go yet...Whatever the case this is simply my personal strategy for myself in those scenarios and not financial advice..best of luck to all of you out there thanks for reading and I hope you have a Merry Christmas!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by DrDovetail
Bitcoin 4hr goldencross has just occurred; Fakeout still in playWe can now see the 4hour golden cross has occurred on the 4hr chart...this may spark a rally and we can see that the stochrsi has reached a good boucne support area with room to go up....however before this downturn, we did not achieve a higher high(which would have been around 4.4k), also this year has been particularly unkind to price action the majority of the times we have gotten a 4hr golden cross. Look left in the chart and you can see at least 3 golden crosses previously that did not get sustained and were followed soon after by a big sell off so it would not surprise me if we repeat history again considering we once again also didn't hit our higher high...howeverwe could for once finally see a real sustainable 4hr golden cross and plow back up above the head and shoulders neckline and trigger the breakout which would give us a target of 5.2k or so....there is also the possibility that that disproportionate right shoulder was really just the head finishing and the recent breakdown is actually the beginning of the right shoulder being formed so thats what the new descending yellow trendline is now representing...if that becomes the new neckline then we still ahve a chance to come up and trigger that which would have a higher price target if it were validated than the current inv h&s we have been looking at. Currently its best to maintain your position until you see obvious signs we are going lower. I sold when we broke back under the neckline but if you didn't right now is a little late to sell if I was in that position right now I would not exit until I saw that 4k had been flipped back to solidified resistance...as long as 4k maintains support there's a chance that this inv h&s brakout can still occur...of course that's just what I would do and not financial advic by any means so you do what you feel is best for you...thanks for reading and good luck!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by DrDovetail
Stocks Enter Danger Zone: Will Trump's Wall Work?I have been watching the Dow Jones since we saw that 4,000 point drop. Ever since, we have been in a sideways range. Yesterday we broke the floor on that range in a negative way. Normally this would be a negative signal for stocks, but I think Trump's "Border Wall" move could reverse things from here so he can keep his precious stock market gains until reelection in 2020. Don't be freaked out by this move quite yet. Let's see how things go on Friday and Monday morning. Steemit Article Youtube
DJ:DJI
by micahjmiller
USD/TRY: Swing-Setups! BE ready for all scenarios! :-)Hey tradomaniacs, welcome to another signal by trading2ez. In this case we want to be ready for both scenarios. Whether it`s going down or up, we can make profit with it! Bullish scenario: After the Breakout of the trendline, we wanna make sure that we don`t buy a Fakeout. Wait for the retest of 5.3! After that we should see bears coming into the market following the downtrend. Right after we should see a retest of the previous high, which was @ 5,25! A bounce off that area would show a new high and a higher low confirming the crossed MAC-D and RSI above 50! This third wave has huge potential, our first target would be the top of the range @ 5.40 - 5.45! After that we can head to 5.5! Indicators: MAC-D should get above the 0-Line crossed upwards! RSI: Should bounce off 50% and go upwards! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bearish scenario: IF we see a Fakeout and bounce back into the trendchannel, we wait for the retest of the recent bottom @ 5.12917! After that, we should see bulls coming into the market until we retest the trendchannel. THIS is our chance to sell the market until we`ve reached the important mark of 5.0! Indicators: MAC-D should cross downwards below the 0-Line to confirm that trade! RSI should get below 50%! ----------------------------------------------------------------------- SETUPS Short: Sell-Limit: 5.14397 Stop-Loss: 5.23019 Target 1: 5.05 Target 2: 5.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Long: Buy-Stop: 5.25 Stop-Loss: 5.14 Target-Zone 1: 5.36 - 5.4036 Target 2: 5.56 Leave a like and a comment - I appreciate every support! :-) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
by Trading2ez
3
Will XRPUSD achieve the golden cross or just a fakeout?This is currently as close as we've seen a potential golden cross on the xrpusd chart. The question now is whether or not it will actually be sustainable or a fakeout. The next candle the 50ma will filter out is a red one but the next candle the 200ma will filter out is a red one that is twice as long...so It's still currently rather hard to say whether or not they will cross or bounce off and repell eachother instead. I've hodling this whole time and will continue to do so,unless I see a clear rejection but also a dip in the xrpbtc pair as well.
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by DrDovetail
2
BTC/USD Possible MovementThe deeper BTC goes, the closer is the next bullrun. However, there are two possible variants that I can see. 1) The Blue One(Most Possible). BTC goes to 4900-5000 zone, where people open a lot of longs, expecting a breakout of the trendline. But it turns out to be fake, and we fall again to 3600-3850 zone. 2) The Red One(Alternative). BTC goes to the 4900-5000 zone, breaks it with high volume and the next TO THE MOON begins. P.s. the time will show, I am in LONG right now, expecting the test of the mentioned zone.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by tim23a
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 249)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis / position: “A clean breakthrough would come on high volume and then would have little trouble supporting a throwback which would create another higher low.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order at 0.97 to cover Patterns: Attempting to break out of 6 month bear trend | 1h had beautiful bull flag that broke down Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,453 | R: $6,493 BTCUSDSHORTS: Current candle is on a 9. Shorts are primed to pick up Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0668% confirming that longs are overleveraged Short term trend (3 day MA): Above longer term MA’s but price is crossing back below. Close below = bearish Medium term trend (8 day MA): Crossing 34 and angling up with price on top = bullish Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Still angled down slightly with price on top = neutral Overall trend: Neutral, could easily flip in either direction Volume: Yesteday’s volume was less than half of what I was watching for to consider this move real. FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 Candlestick analysis: Shooting star from todays candle with wick = body | Dark cloud cover already forming on current candle, strong indication of fake breakout Ichimoku Cloud: Today’s candle briefly broke into daily cloud and quickly wicked down. Inside 12h and 4h clouds indicates no trade zone. TD’ Sequential: 12h g8 and Daily g7 indicates that this move is exhausting Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. If the price closes above $6,789 at any point then that would be very bullish . Breaking down below $6,154 would be very bearish (hopefully didn’t need VPVR to tell you that) Price action: 24h: -0.69% | 2w: +0.74% | 1m: -1.62% Bollinger Bands: Finally tested the top band. Sticking close to the top band would indicate an upcoming trend, pulling back sharply with dark cloud cover indicates a likely return to the MA Trendline: Broke through trendline but there are strong indications of a fakeout / bull trap from volume, the bearish wick on today’s candle and the dark cloud cover on the current candle. Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Broke up fractal at $6,488 but is quickly pulling back below RSI: Will daily be able to create another higher low? Bear div on 4h Stochastic: Daily is overbought and posturing for a sell signal. Sell signal on 12h preceded current pullback Summary: In yesterday’s post I briefly outlined what to look for if we rally through the bear trend line to confirm that the move is real: “large volume and a supported throwback which creates a higher low” I wish I would have outlined what to look for to indicate a fakeout / bull trap because we would be checking off every box today. Volume barely exceeding the moving average and not even exceeding the high from the prior two weeks is a very strong indication of a fakeout. (In hindsight) I would consider the 2014-2015 bear market coming to an end on November 2nd 2015. Take a look at the volume that supported that move combined with the volume that preceded it. Bear markets end on low volatility and high volume. That is not an either/or proposition. The demand needs to far exceed the supply at a certain price for a reversal to occur, or else it is highly likely that the prior trend will continue. Outside of volume (most important to me) there are numerous indicators signaling overbought conditions and/or signs of a reversal: The wick on top of today’s candle may or may not be considered a shooting star depending on the exchange (is wick > / = body?), either way that is a bearish wick/candle and reeks of a fakeout. That was quickly confirmed by the current candle retracing 100% of yesterday’s move. The 1h chart was forming a beautiful bull flag, however that recently broke down and that is a bearish signal. The BTCUSDSHORTS’ are at historical support and on a TD 9. This strongly indicates to me that selling pressure will pick up in the next couple days. The funding rates provide confirmation with longs paying shorts 0.0668%. The daily TD’ Sequential is on a green 7 and the 12h hit is green 8. Both are strong indications that the trend is becoming exhausted. The daily and 12h Stochastics confirm. 12h just had a sell signal and the daily is postured to crossover in the next day or two. Yesterday I said that it was anyone’s guess where the price would go today. Now it looks like the bears are taking over and everything I’m looking at points to a reversal within the next two days. Nevertheless I still think it is too early to enter. I will be closely watching the short and medium term trends to be in my favor before re entering a short. If we fall back below the bear trendline then it will be time to start entering.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
trading fake outsHere's something lots of traders gets stopped when trading breakouts. FAKE OUTS. A fake out is when the price exits a range or consolidation in a strong sudden move, most retail traders believe it to be a breakout and add a position. Price then reverse and hit your stop loss. This is an example of how you can take advantage of such situation. When the price is consolidating near a SOLID level (longer time frames recommended, 1h and up) and exits the range to test, let's say, the resistance, you can add a short order to trade this fake out. S/L shall be above the resistance and T/P at the range level. If, however, your candle closes above the resistance, you might want to consider a break out.
Education
by mikael1105
EURUSD POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITY EURUSD POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITY I have been watching EURUSD closely for the past couple weeks. This pair has been in an interesting spot for awhile and not until recently has it really caught my interest for a potential short opportunity. If you look on the 1W time frame, which I usually wont go to that large of a time frame, but it actually shows that EU had been in a Head and Shoulder structure and had broke the neck line. Now to go down to more recently whats been happening if you take a look at the 1D (daily) time frame it displays that EU has been making lower highs with a descending trend line its holding, as well as lower lows, without a true market rollover yet. Or impulse move however you want to look at it. There was a point in time on August 28th that we had seen EURUSD was attempting to break that descending trend-line to the upside. BUT there was something I saw that I didn't like, it was very WEAK. Especially for being a daily time frame respected level/trend line that would cause for a high volume break, and we just didn't see that. After a couple days of weak movement up price ran back down with strength by the sellers! Causing that to become a fakeout! NOW I was interested. I waited for the re-test to make sure the buyers were weaker and sure enough the sellers smashed it back down again. Now we're here and I'm looking to go short because the sellers are showing me they are interested in shorting this market, the reason doesn't matter as much as you think! So lets check it out. 1D Chart: *On this timeframe EURUSD had a fakeout below a descending trend line that has been holding since June/July *on the re-test the seller had come back in and smashed price action down showing strong seller momentum *the market had created a lower low lower close candle now on the daily timeframe with STRENGTH 4H Chart: *we are going to use this chart to get more of the specifics *price action is now sitting at a recent significant structure area on the 4H timeframe so lets wait for a reaction for better price entry (if we get one) *we want to look for a weak re-test into the 1.15900-1.16200 area and wait to see strong seller interest at this level Remember to ALWAYS stay disciplined to your trading plan and risk management. It is very crucial to formulate a disciplined and consistent approach in the markets. If you are not prepared they will get the best of you and you will never be profitable unless you implement that discipline. Think of every trade like this, a STRATEGIC BUSINESS DECISION. It will allow you to truly wait for probability to be on your side as well as help you formulate a business plan for each trade. Remember never to risk more than 2% of your trading capital per trade. Keep an eye out on this trade! Cheers!
Short
by JosePips
2
BTCUSD bulltrap idea Current short term situation looks like the bear flag has been invalidated. With a 1D close above and test of the top trend, it is a safe bet that BTC is going to take another leg up to $71XX or possibly even extend to $78XX. Alts should follow as long as BTC doesn't move too fast. However, we are still in a bear market so we must remain cautious. If my theory is correct, this will be a fake out to trap longs. Twitter sentiment has turned bullish, many people seem to believe the bottom is in so its possible this is just a bog. Not to mention we have the shorts that can fuel it, shorts closing will be another good psychological trap. Fake out to -> drop will be invalidated if BTC climbs above the top trend at $78XX and confirms support. ---------------------------- My position; ---------------------------- Entry : $6759 ( and below ) Target 1 : $7074 Target 2 : $7747 Stoploss : $6647 ( Also suggested to trail with stop loss once the move has begun ) ---------------------------- This is not financial advice, I am not your financial adviser. This is explicitly my own opinion and should not be treated otherwise.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by dalvinchi
1
American Express ascending wedge fakeoutAXP has been in an ascending wedge pattern since February. Although ascending wedges see the price climb until their apex, they are a bearish pattern. The price target measured from the point of the breakdown is equal to the left side of the wedge, which I have cloned and placed. To be fair, the wedge has not yet broken down. In fact, quite the opposite. Today the price climbed above the wedge pattern, but it did so on light volume. Typically, long pattern break outs do not occur on low volume and tend to snap back into the pattern. I took this opportunity to enter a short position at $105 in both stock and $101 strike long put options, betting on the price at least re-entering the pattern and more than likely testing the lower boundary of the ascending wedge pattern as well. Overall, the wedge seems to have run its course so furthermore it is fairly likely we will see a complete breakdown of the ascending wedge pattern in the coming weeks, in which case I will be adding to my short position on confirmation (i.e. move out of the lower support line on heavy volume) of the breakdown. Wedges are among my favorite and most successful patterns to play as you will see going though my post history. ------------------------------------------------------------- As always, the responsibility for managing your position is your own. I am not a financial adviser nor is any content in this post intended to be financial advice. The information presented is my opinion, based on tools I have learned from others sharing their opinions and my experience in the markets. I share these ideas to generate discussion and have others critique my analysis because, as always, I am still learning. With that in mind, the outcome could be quite different than what I am predicting and this is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice of any kind. Readers should consult with a financial or investment professional to determine what may be best for their individual needs.
NYSE:AXPShort
by Bullish_Harambe
WHITHER DJIA?! MOON SHOT OR FISH TANK!?! COMPARE TO MAY CHANNEL After Tuesday's short squeeze a lot of us got stopped out and irritated bears are wondering; "WTH is it DOING?!" After I calmed down a bit, licked my wounds and smoothed out my fur, took a hard look at the chart. Then shorted again today. Pattern now unfolding looks a heckofalot like May's behavior after the runup three months back. Now Tues looks like a BullTrap and yet another fakeout squeeze. Notice the same 'double-top' action, short-squeeze after first downtrend fakeout, then a descending triangle leading to the sheer drop. Significantly, May's pullback was 0.50 Fibo only and did not test the channel bottom. That came later, in the June Swoon. Elliot wave theory 'alternating wave hypothesis' suggests that a shallow wave is followed by a deep strong trough, in turn by a shallow wave. Maybe bullhockey, but after the strong cup-and-handle breakout in July I wouldn't bet on a really steep/deep decline. Could happen but...?! Possibly a .382 Fibo = 25020. Strong support now at the former resistance level could springboard the index up to next bullish impulse, note horizontal arrow > support tested, retested in cuphandle. If S1 breaks: S2 at 24844 (Fibo 0.50); S3 at 24668 (Fibo 0.618; tested in the cup); S4 at 24418 (Fibo 0.786, bottom of the cup), which lands squarely on the lower trendline. Notice: Height of triangle in May = depth of drop; if we get that again in August, Dow might retrace to 0.382 Fibo and bounce. Don't get squeezed- watch it real close... Also noteworthy: one page contributor has observed the market highs/lows have coincided with Moon phases - high 24585 was at Full Moon 07/26/18; look for a low around the New Moon on Friday, 10 August, eh?! Maybe silly but there it is... Test of bottom trendline would be a long drop, and seems unlikely now, but the damned thing has already done the impossible, so don't count it out. Other similarities suggesting imminent corrective wave: 'exhaustion gap' up on Tues followed by rapid retracement; a 'shooting star' Weds attempt to recover to Tues HOD but fell short at 25480, rejection leading to strong selloff end of day; low volume on up days, increasing volume on down days; RSI: Neutral. August is tied for weakest month of year with October. BUT August is also often a 'pivot month' in which the trend reverses. SO; whither Dow? Maybe a little off the top please, then resume the Moon shot... Good luck traders! > "Going to the Moon... after a brief detour through Pandemonium and Nether Regions"
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
BTCUSD: Avoid The Noise. No Retrace? No Entry.BTCUSD update: Price is still gyrating around the low 8Ks which is nothing more than randomness. The fact that yesterday's low of 8123 was just taken out also adds to the retrace argument as well. We have been patiently waiting to buy into the more attractive prices relative to this formation which are below the 7800 level. I published a report earlier on S.C. that explained the specific levels that we are waiting for. In that report I wrote that buying bullish breakouts in a consolidating market is more likely to lead to a fake out. We are looking for the opposite scenario, which would be a false bearish break. The 7450 minor support (.382 of the recent bullish structure) is the level that needs to be maintained in order for the trend to continue. A close below and that would increase the chances of a broader range bound market rather than a decisively bullish one. Any push into the area above 8500 at this point is not a location to initiate new longs. In fact I wrote that this area is a place to lock in profits because of the bearish reversal zone boundary located just above. In summary, timing a market is not about catching "the next move". It is about defining where the highest probability trades can occur and waiting for the market to align. It is not about profit, it is about probability. That is the mentality that facilitates long term consistency in this business. Flat is a position that preserves capital but more importantly preserves confidence. Without it, fear is more likely to guide your decisions and you are more likely to be reactive. If this market refuses to retrace and provide a solid high probability opportunity, then there is no reason to trade. Forced trades may work on occasion, but do not cover the losses and costs that are incurred over time. Stack probabilities in your favor by waiting for quality, not reacting to quantity.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
Potential Head and Shoulders Fakeout into 200 MA then breakdown Bulls have tested 6800 area 6 times since June 18th, I think if we head back up there and the head and shoulders pattern plays out then we will break up towards 7000 area. Maybe consolidate around then and move up giving the resistance time to come down. The 200 MA is moving down and we fell out of the sky last time we touched 200 MA, also the 30 week MA is heading down at an accelerated rate it would be a great setup to get everyone bullish and then wreck them. The ultimate last chance to short!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ZacharyThompson
ETHUSD: Avoid The Middle. Looking For Fake Out.ETHUSD update: Price is consolidating around the 464 level as this market is pulled back and forth by the indecisive BTC market. Symmetrical triangles are tricky formations since the closer to the middle price gyrates, the more random it is. The best thing to do in a situation like this is wait it out which is not what the crowd wants to hear. Earlier on S.C., I wrote about patience and how being flat is also a position. It is far from glamorous, but market timing is mostly about waiting. The typical strategy for a triangle is to buy or sell the break out. So we look to do the opposite. We do not short these markets. If you were watching the short squeeze earlier today in BTC, you may now have an idea as to why. At S.C., if we want to short something we look at the forex markets which are much more stable and mature. This makes our objective simple. Wait for the next long setup. Even though triangles are known to be continuation patterns, they are also known for their failed breakouts. And that is what we are looking to capitalize on. Any significant retrace is going to shake a lot of weak hands and that is where we look to buy, not the resistance breakout. I wrote a report earlier on S.C. that covered the specific levels that we are watching. In summary, patience is what leads to consistency over the long term. High probability setups are more than a candle stick formation. They also account for the underlying formation and the context of the price location. These are factors that are often overlooked, especially by less experienced traders who put too much weight on oscillators. Tired of missing out? How about accumulating inventory when the market is hated like it was just a couple of weeks ago? Short term trading is not just all in, all out, all your capital, in one trade and hope for the home run. Allocating capital across multiple strategies and time frames helps to capture moves that are otherwise tough to trade into. This requires organization and a plan, but it doesn't have to be complicated. There are basic elements of timing markets that you don't hear about. Things like having a specific procedure not just for entering and exiting a market but for your analytical process as well. If it sounds like too much, then begin with a broader investing strategy which helps develop a better foundation for perspective. Small time frames like the 1 hour or less requires a ton of experience to utilize properly. And I mention this because many traders get caught up in the confusion. Just something to consider.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
Futures expire. Correction over? Or triple fakeout?This has been a very difficult flag one which has waiting until the last possible second to do a bullish fakeout and then also a bearish fakeout. Seeing as how we are at the end of the apex I'm guessing it will be quite difficult for it to do yet another fakeout downward...also futures have expired today so there's no real reason for whales to push it down...the fud about the Winklevoss rejection has also now been counteracted with the chairwoman of the SEC "dissenting" with the ruling(conveniently timed). Her reaction tells me we might very well see an ETF approved in the near future. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say we are going up and the dip we just saw was just a dip buying opportunity. Of course I could be wrong we could be end for a mind boggling triple fakeout..but this time I think we are going up. Thanks for reading *not financial advice*
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by DrDovetail
7