Get started

Fall

Why BTC could be going MUCH lower. Part II: Vox populi"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Possibly one of the most influential quotes of all time when it comes to investing. While this is necessarily not always the case, Warren Buffet understands that the whole merry-go-round that we call the stock, gold etc. markets are based on one, though far from simple, thing: psychology of the participating individuals. It is the reason why 90% of all individuals fail in trading as they are lead by emotions and irrational deicisions. The other 10%? They understand the game and simply go against the mass sentiment of the sheep, profiting of off them in the process. So what is the current sentiment in the crypto sphere? alternative.me Well, if we take a look at the crypto fear and greed index we can see that currently greed is in the market with a valuation of 57 (you can look up on what the whole algorithm is based on). If we take the TA approach, we can see that the 60 mark provides a heavy resistance. 56 is the point at which Bitcoin tumbled, broke 6k and capitulated (though if that was the true capitulation remains to be seen). What does this mean? Well, firstly, do note that there are times when a greedy overall sentiment can be justified. For example, if Bitcoin made a higher high and established a firm support at a new level that would definitely mean that greed is, at least for the short tem, a justified sentiment. Another example would be Bitcoin decisively breaking the 6k support-now-resistance level as that would essentially signal the start of a new bull market. But, with that being said, can the greed really be justified in this point in time? If you look at the TA fundamentals, we are now facing heavy resistance on a weekly time frame with a multitude of indicators: 1. 200 EMA (in red) is holding the price firmly below 4100 2. 20 MA (in black) is falling down like a bomb and though an argument can be made that we broke it, I would like to see a breakout with A LOT of volume. Breaking such significant MA is no small feat and any breakout without volume cant really be taken particularly seriously. 3. RSI on the weekly is 1. overextended and 2. at a super heavy resistance around 43,44 In short, the sentiment is telling us moon while the TA is telling us a completely different story. That would make the current greed sentiment UNJUSTIFIABLE. I plan to take additional short positions and cant wait for these thing to fall like a rock to at least 200MA. Once there we will evaluate the position and react appropriately. Stay tuned for Part III of the series, where we will take a look at an indicator with a literally 100% accuracy. Thank you! P.S. If you like my analysis, please hit a like as otherwise, if no one is reading them there is no point in writing them either.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Bluewhere
Why BTC could be going MUCH lower. Part 1: The Hammer strikesMoving averages. Whether you love them or hate them, trade with them or without them the fact of the matter is that some of them are very significant, even on their own as they can act as support and resistance. Once they cross however, their power can absolutely make or break a market as seen countless times in the stock and gold market but also with Bitcoin and, most recently, its death cross in April of 2018. What surprises me at this point in time is that not a lot of people, even the analysts that I follow and look up to, are talking about the impending MA cross that is about to happen. The 20 weekly (red) acted as support during the entire bull market and as heavy resistance during the current (and also previous) bear market. We are currently right below it and so far failed to push (decisively) through. The 200 weekly (green) is perhaps the most important MA in all asset classes across all time frames and, in relation to Bitcoin, represents a line that has literally NEVER been broken and in fact was the point at which the previous bear cycle bottomed/ended. In short, these two are probably THE MOST important MAs when it comes to Bitcoin, period. And they are about to have a cross. Since this has literally never happened before I can only guess what the outcome of this will be. I can tell you one thing though, expect some absolutely massive volatility. Think of it like a giant hammer, ready to either demolish everything in its way or produce a spectacular piece of metal art work. Timeframe? Assuming the MAs dont change trajectory significantly, expect the cross to happen as early as on the 8th of April but no later than on the 22th of April (blue box). My personal opinion is that we are getting closer to our final capitulation stage. Be on the lookout for Part II and III of the series where I will further expand on my extremely bearish views for the short and mid - term. Thank you!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Bluewhere
XAU/USD BIG FALL COMING XAU/USD - Time for a fall, Gold has been climbing recently price has currently melted and made a Lower Low. Currently pushing up to the resistance of 1325 which price has resisted many times I can see gold creating a lower high at the resistance of 1325 that aligns with my golden ration, looking for short positions also this will create a head and shoulders pattern and a bear flag. price is respecting should be seeing a fall to the downside very soon. Please like and follow Thanks, Kain3e
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Kain3e
HL 2018 resistence. BTC WILL FALL - FISH SLAUGHTERGood morning Whale's parasites! My 9 dicember idea is still perfectly valid. In my charts you will see the clear things. I will never give you 2 directions. Down is down and up is up because in a market 100% manipulated as BTC we have 100% accuracy in forecasting. Impossible to give 100% accuracy if it were a real market. That it is a manipulated market is a blessing for all the parasites of whales and a nightmare for the fish. Let's start to analize! We see that BTC since December 9 made 2 ascending channels one green and one blue. Right now BTC is about to meet the white dot line that is the 2018 HL line and has never been broken in more than a year. So what we're going to see is a very strong BTC drop in a few hours or days. All the fish that are inside the ALTS (which were doing several pumps) will be paid by the whales, reaching a loss of 40-70% in some cases. It will be a massacre and a splendid dinner for the whales. So take your parasitic money and run away before the whale drags you to the bottom of the abyss. If you want to know which will be the targets of the fall, that is, where to buy back cheaply, give me a LIKE. Only if you give me 50 Likes or more in this idea will I share the next targets. I'm a parasite, it's my nature ... GOLD Rule: A parasite never says cool. Learn to trade and multiply and multiply, but never put fresh money. We are here to take money, not to put it. Remember, if we reach 50 likes, I will share the trargets. Hugs my parasites !!
Short
by sergio00
23
#BTC compare of the fall and its correctionSo, we see a drop to Fib 0.786, but if you look at the entire history of the Bitcoin price movement, you can see larger plums: in 2011, the price rolled back to -94% (from $ 35 to $ 2), also this year there is a drain to -83% (from $ 12 to $ 2), then draining in 2013 to -82% (from $ 259 to $ 45), then there was a drop in 2015 to -86% (from $ 1140 to $ 150), and now they have fallen just to -78% (from 19,900 to 4,300), corresponding to the Fibonacci resistance level. Therefore, to go below the chances are quite real. Level 3000, for example, corresponds to a decrease of -84.9%, and 2000 is equal to -89.9%. Thus, the downtrend may continue, but not without corrections of such drops! The now formed symmetrical triangle from the past post is a warning rather than a further expected forecast. In general, now the picture is bullish, we need a rebound, we need a correction of the fall. Most indicators look positive, we can get an increase to the levels from which we began to fall, but a break above may be a bull trap, after which the price will continue to follow the downward trend.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CryptoWolfsTrust
USD/CAD , you have to be risky for a biscuitHi traders , the hard trade , to complicate for me but i will risk it when the market opens and be like snake to every forex floor , -->weekly : above MA200 uptrend obviously -->daily: above MA200 but its a candle they call it Shooting Star but i am not sure if it is , maybe a Master help us ;) (i see shooting star because the upper shadow is 2 times the body of the candle) my signal for that is SELL. --> the H4 is Hanging Man so for me is more sell signal but in the H1 we see a strong bullish candle , so we wait the confirmation , i need one more candle to tell me that is ...SELL! Resistance : 1.31468 Support: 1.29915 we aim for that support , but still is to risky for me . We aim for Monday , the usd will fall from the sky 100% . Stay Tuned , The Master
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3549910
USD/CHF will fall or what?! The master will do anything that will give him profit so we look every chart with care if my macroeconomics are good and the usd economy enter in bearish formation will help this short idea to make it happen , so we wait one more fake up side and then boom , fall from the sky and short it to the bottom 0.96000 and next station 0.92000 for long term SHORT ! Wait the confirmation on Monday if the bullish trend continues we will wait for best chance to short it , dont lose money on counter trade on this one , to risky and not enough reward the resistance is to close and to strong . We wait for the fall. Its easy if you know what you are doing The Master
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3549910
Comparison of Bitcoin Price Movements after Falls#BTC In the near future there is an opportunity to repeat the movement similar to the movement after falling in August. The global market is too oversold, but this does not mean that in the case of opening positions, this should be done on all capital, investments should be partial and deliberate, do not forget about money management and the weighing of all sorts of risks. We repeat that the market is very subject to manipulation.
by CryptoWolfsTrust
Bitcoin historical moment... Will it crash to $1500?><><><>< Click “Like” to support us and unlock more great content ><><><>< Since November 14, Bitcoin has been going through a massive selloff. In 6 days price declined by 32%, while hitting todays’ low at $4411. Price reached the lower trendline of the descending channel and almost tested the 78.6% Fibonacci support level at $4387. The Crash BTC/USD is facing yet another support level, which up until now has been rejected. However, the trend remains very bearish even further drop can be expected. If current support is broken, BTC could go lower, towards the $3k, or even $1.5k level. Potentially, such decline would result in a total loss of 92% since the all-time high. Considering the huge volatility within the cryptocurrency market such scenario can be expected. Trend clues But let's look at the upside potential in this bearish market. Current support is holding, and while price remains above, range trading or a correction to the upside should be expected. In our previous idea $4.8k support level has been mentioned, and it's yet to be seen whether the daily close is above or below it. If BTC/USD will close the day above $4.8k, probability of a range trading or a strong correction will become more likely. Positive scenario Talking above the positive scenario, it would probably take more time for the BTC to reverse, as next Fibonacci cycle indicating on October 2019, that is nearly a year from now. Yes, this is how long it could take for the uptrend to resume. Yet, cryptocurrency market can be very unpredictable and volatile. Considering that, one can assume the probability of a fast reversal, similar to what has happened to the Monero, back few years ago. The idea to the Monero reversal vs Bitcoin comparison can be found down below. Volatility is good The good thing is that the volatility has returned that is positive news for the overall cryptocurrency market. In strong declines such as this one, investors might see opportunities, thus more money will be poured in the cryptocurrency market. This, indeed, could be the reversal moment, but as has been said, it could take a long time before it happens. Bearish scenario Now let's observe the bearish scenario and potential bottom. Based on the Fibonacci time zone indicator, along with the extended descending channel, BTC/USD could go as low as $1500. But if Bitcoin will ever get to this price, it could be truly a long waited buying opportunity for institutional investors. Talking about the timeframe, price would ether move towards that level very slowly, or with the current volatility, could be reached within few weeks or even days! Risk taking Staying cautions and not taking risking big in this market, seems to be one of the optimal ways to go. Having said that, Bitcoin believers might be holding BTC even during big drops, and what’s more, they can even accumulate more. Only time will tell the true outcome, but in this idea, we are happy to share our vision of possible outcomes.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CryptalDash
Bitcoin domination ends now?Following our previous idea on BTC/USD, it continues to trade in the green zone, which was spotted between the $5755 resistance and $4835 support. Long term The long term buying opportunity might have already presented itself, which at any time could invite large institutions to buy the mighty Bitcoin. But at the same time shorter timeframe should be observed more closely. Risk taking Today BTC/USD has tested a new lower low, hitting $5265, where it touched the downtrend tend line for the second time. The nearest resistance has been established at $5755, that is the lowest low, established back on the 24th of June. Clearly the downtrend is dominating and there are no signs of the reversal to the upside. Buying BTC is very risky at this point, nevertheless, there will be those who prefer to take the risk. Bitcoin domination The question is; what is the use case for the Bitcoin in the coming months and years. Back in the January 2018 the transaction cost for BTC was around $10 for BTC, that was nearly the same as a bank wire transfer cost. Also, sometime BTC transactions were taking more than a month for confirmation, that is simply unusable for many businesses. This could have been the starting point of the end of Bitcoin domination in the total market cap. Alternative to BTC Many altcoins provide solution to the BTC speed and transaction const issues. Some offer almost instant transactions with almost free transaction costs. These are the coins that could be adopted more widely in the future, thus taking a huge chunk of BTC market cap. Obviously, in this case, BTC capital could be migrating to other coin/s, which as a result, can bring the new cryptocurrency King dominating the market. BTC downtrend At this point we can only guess if or when this will ever happen, but considering such scenario could push the price of the Bitcoin much lower. Looking at the current state of the BTC price development, trend remains bearish. Nevertheless, there was no clean and confirmed break and close below the $5755 support. Yes, the spike has been produced below the $5755, but only daily close below the $5432 (today’s low) could confirm the downtrend continuation. The support The nearest support is seen at $5133, which his the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement applied to the corrective wave up after breaking the uptrend trendline. Next support is at $4835, which is 78.6% Fibs, as per the previous idea on BTC/USD. Seems that the key support area will be near $4835, while break below this level will rise more questions rather than give any answers, but perhaps it is a little premature to consider this scenario. BTC uptrend On the upside, the resistance is seen at $5755 (previous low), which if broken should push price further, up to $7100 area. This is the 88.6% Fibonacci level, that corresponds with the upper trend line of the descending channel. But all-in-all, price to be expected to range between the $5755 and $4835. Break above the resistance of below the support could shed more lights on further price development.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CryptalDash
The dark knight risesDark knight rises Based on my analysis: I think the bull up move is now compromised. In my previous idea, I've drawn a tight range (channel) where the price was orbiting. It is a ceiling in fact, a real resistance zone. I think there is 15-25% chance that the price will keep on going up strongly. It's really pessimistic in my opinion. Let me tell you why. Point 1: (BULLS score +1) : -------------------------------- In the S4W Mirror indicator, the last green hill is still above the current running red hill. but how long will it last? Not that long I think. Point 2: (BEARS score +1) : -------------------------------- a) There seems to be a large head and shoulders pattern that is forming. I've put some circle on graph to show it. that is really early to tell for sure though, but it'll be a flat pattern if it would occur. b) In my previous idea, I was describing a local forming head and shoulders pattern. This one seems to still be forming. But price must move up to 6550 then drop again. In that case, we will face a price drop to 6K or even less. Point 3: (BEARS score +1) : -------------------------------- Look at the box I've drawn in the S4W Horizon indicator: a) The orange line finally moved above horizon (above zero) b) Yellow line crosses under the purple one, and the purple one is thick and descending regularly. c) point 3/a and point 3/b are occurring nearly at the same time, which has potency for a price reversal. ----------------------------------------- Guys take this has a PRE-Analysis. I just wanted to show you the market temperature to my opinion. The dark knight of bear rises! Price will go up a bit first, it's the key-point to the forming patterns. but if the S4W Horizon indicator has more weight than I thought, the price should drop down fast, even before reaching the last shoulder level (6550). Time will tell ----------------------------------------- PS: Don't take my words for granted. Analyze, re-analyze, then trade at your own risks. PS2: If you like this analyze, please click the LIKE button. FOLLOW me also to get my latest ideas. Thank you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Atemak
2
Bull's cycle over, but...Based on my analysis: The up move has now finished a cycle. But it's not yet finished for them. Because they are still strong. I'm seeing 2 possible scenarios for the next 2 days. As you can see I've removed most of my violet lines , from my previous idea. since they are useless now. That's why I say there is 2 possible scenarios By seeing the S4W/Mirror indicator, the green line is still strong. My guess is that another move up is about to occur again, after a short down move. let's say in 24 hours from now (in 6-8 ticks). The price may reach 6550. If I'm not wrong, 6550 USD will be a key-point for both scenarios. If price goes up immediately after reaching that level, the Bulls will still go up. But all depends on their strength (this can be seen from the S4W horizon indicator (the green line)). If price plunge fast below 6550 then comes back up to 6550, we will be in a possible head and shoulder scenario. Which will go down to 6100 then even lower. But I think for now, the most probable scenario is the up move. About cycles, the S4W/MirrorSTop indicator, shows the bulls finished an up move cycle. But another one can still occur, but at least in 24H, if that indicator still progress as it progresses now PS: Don't take my words for granted. Analyze, re-analyze, then trade at your own risks. PS2: If you like this analyze, please click the LIKE button. FOLLOW me also to get my latest ideas. Thank you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Atemak
2
Uncertainties on BullsBased on my analysis : Since September 14th we've entered a channel, and exiting it will mark the real direction the market will go. I'm seeing the bulls power is "sanding" a bit. What is sure, for me, there is too many uncertainties right now to take action. The UP move is a bit compromised as it is now. Also, I've seen 2 of my support levels (violet lines) are matching FIBO levels 0.786 and FIBO 1.0. So I think now those 2 supports levels are keys, but I don't want to dream a nightmare. Let's wait to exit the channel first to see if price will lead to FIBO 0.786 then 1.0, or will still going up. The S4W compression is still not expanding yet. it slowly refrains its compression but no expansion yet. it's going flat, which means there is an expansion to occur soon. An expansion means a price going up. I see in S4W/Mirror indicator that the BULLS have lost a battle, as shown in the box I've drawn. Is it the end of war? Not really, because the SW4 Horizon indicator tells the road is still not blocked for an uptrend yet. My conclusion is : We are in a middle of a channel, and that brings uncertainties for now. I would not start a trade right now. We need to exit that channel first. Let's wait 24 hours , from now, to see if the BEARS have won or not. I'll check this by seeing if the bulls' line (green line) in S4/Mirror will move over the last red hill or not. If that's the case, we will be still on the road to "UpVille". I also need to check if the S4W/Horizon is still in bulls favor (= green line still descending). Finally, the 2 FIBO levels are matching too perfectly my 2 support levels. That's shows a possible bearish move to move going below 6K. :-( Let's exit this channel first, to know PS: An expansion is when the S4W/Compression indicator forms a green line and going up PS2: don't take my words for granted. Do your analysis, re-analyze, then trade. PS3: Don't hesitate to LIKE this idea, and follow me to get my latest ideas. PS4: <- Play it at home or buy an XBOX :-)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Atemak
1