HSI futures - false breakout setup a high risk-reward tradeHSI future forms a wedge making me bias to bearish.
Today, it breakouts the previous swing high, EMA50, and a mid-term downward trendline, and immediately drops below, expecting to close as a pinbar.
A classic false breakout setting with 5 conflence factors (also considering the fib retracement, and the long-term resistance).
A 2.5 risk-reward trade will be enter around the close.
Falsebreak
SP500 Short Term ForecastH4 - Triple cycle to the downside completed, price is holding above a strong support zone, false breaks with bullish divergence.
Downtrend line breakout, we may now expect possible short term retraces to happen.
H1 - Bullish trend pattern, until the buy zone holds my short term view remains bullish here.
Invalidation - If the price breaks and holds below the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level then this short term bullish view will be invalidated.
EURJPY Buy IdeaW1 - Price reached the bottom of the channel and is moving higher, bullish divergence.
D1 - Bullish divergence, false breaks, currently the price has created higher highs thus forming a bullish convergence.
We may now look for pullbacks and buys with bullish evidences.
H4 - We have a bearish divergence, until the last low holds, we may look to buy retraces with bullish evidences.
EURUSD Sell IdeaH1 - Currently it looks like the special cycle has completed itself. We had false break and bullish divergence.
Currently the price is moving higher, hence as per the book scenario we may now expect a correction to happen towards the 38.2% – 50% fibo retrace zone.
We may then start looking for sells with more bearish evidences.
EURGBP Buy IdeaD1 - Hidden bullish divergence, price has created a false break of the uptrend line.
H4 - Two false breaks with two bullish divergences.
Now price is attempting to break the most recent high.
If we get a valid breakout above the high shown in the chart, we may then look for possible buys with more bullish evidences.
USD/TRY is forming a second pennant move We can see on the half hour graph that USDTRY is forming a second pennant formation.
We have to wait and see other indicators to support this move such as Parabolic SAR and RSI. Moving average is crossing the bollinger middle band as I'm publishing this. Volume is getting higher in each stick forms. Also bollinger bands narrowed down for a move. Target of this pennant will be around 5,81
This morning price made a false break of pennant support. Just like it did on the first pennant formation. And the steep uptrend started right after this false break. Most probably that false break stopped many people's trade.
GBPCAD Buy ideaD1 - Special cycle, we have two false breaks with two divergences.
H4 - Bullish divergence, false break. Price positioned itself above the D1 100% fibo extension. In other words trading above the critical level.
Hi - Currently it looks like a pullback is happening, once the pullback completes itself we may then start looking for buys with more bullish evidences.
GBPCHF Buy IdeaD1 - Double wave down completed, bullish divergence.
We may look for possible retrace to happen towards 38.2 fibo retrace zone.
H4 - We had false break with bullish divergence.
Price has currently broke above the last high, we may now look for pullbacks and buys with more bullish evidences.