Falsebreak
EURAUD Sell IdeaW1 - Price is currently near the top of the range, price has also reached the magnet zone and also a bearish divergence has formed.
D1 - Two potential false breaks and bearish divergence.
H1 - We may now look for pullbacks and then sells.
Invalidation: If the price moves higher and breaks above the last high then this setup is invalidated.
BTCUSDT Volume Analysis Prediction 03/16/2018Hi, friends and traders.
Bitcoin becomes more interesting. The maximum horizontal volume of the week fell down and now bitcoin shows a bullish reaction from it.
Despite the fact that the market remains still bearish, we can try to catch this bull initiative. Also, BTC has formed very similar to the figure of a false breakdown.
Trade recommendation:
Entry point: area 8190-8250
Stop: 7995
Target1: 8700
Target2: 9100
Glossary of terms
Point of Control (P O C) – The price level for the time period with the highest traded volume .
Value Area (V A) – The range of price levels in which a specified percentage of all volume was traded during the time period. Typically, this percentage is set to 70% however it is up to the trader’s discretion.
Balance - Accumulation Area.
F L - flat level.
T L - trend level.
Fixing (fix, culmination) - reverse price reaction then the markets stops i'ts movement for a short time. The trend stops when it passes through 2-3 fixing movement.
ES - long opportunityWe saw a false breakdown of the balance and the price returned back into the balance (2722.5)
For now we have 2 options for buy position:
1. Aggressive option - we can buy at point buy1 with stop1
2. Conservative option - we can wait for the retest of lower balance level and buy at point buy2 with stop2
The target is the high level of the balance (2753)
USDJPY: False break of inside barToday we have seen a break of the inside bar setup that formed yesterday. This will give us a possible better entry short below today's candle with a stop above that candle. We will still want to take profit just before the support level, which could give us a 3R return. Once we break below the mother candle I will consider moving my stop to break even. I will leave the current limit short order below the mother candle adding on to the trade as it moves into my favor.
XAUUSD - buy opportunityGOLD is in the main balance with the range 1307-1362. Last week we saw a false break down of this balance. That often indicates about the movement to the other side of balance. For now you can use 2 strategies:
1. Put buy-stop with the expectation of break out 1325 (aggressive).
2. Wait for a correction wave to the balance level 1307 (conservative).
Stop-loss should be below the false break down, so the second option is more preferable. Also, second option have a much better risk/reward ratio.
Target1: 1356
Target2: 1362
EURUSD - buy opportunity after false break downHi, friends.
Last week we saw a false break down on EURUSD.
So, now we must waiting for a correction to the lower balance level (1.2200-1.2215) to open buy position.
Or you can buy right here. But in this case your risk-reward ratio will get worse, because stop loss must be below the false break down.
After a false breakdown of balance, the price usually goes to the opposite level. That means our target is 1.2500-1.2520.
False break of inside bars structureAfter the clear down trend we saw some consolidation in OANDA:USDCHF that looks like it is forming a bottoming pattern.
In the short term I will be looking to trade the next leg down if we see price move below yesterdays low.
To find out more about how I trade, see: www.davetromp.net
Example of a inside bar + false break tradeHere is an example of a profitable trade that closed out today for a 2R gain.
I currently have an open order on the USDCHF with a simular setup. See linked idea.
The setup consists of the following elements:
strong / clear preceding trend
consolidation in the form of one or more inside bars
a false break out of the consolidation, thus rejecting the counter trend direction
place a trade in the direction of the preceding trend
In this example the break was a well formed pinbar and I therefore placed a limit entry order at the 50% retracement of the pinbar.
Stop was placed above the high of the pinbar.
Profit target was placed at two times the distance of the stop, giving a R2R ratio of 2. Target also nicely lined up with the bottom of the consolidation / mother candle of the inside bar pattern.
Learn more about my trading at: www.davetromp.net
#BTCUSD Inverse Head and ShouldersSimplified BTC TA. We have a parallel channel and a downtrend line. We have been recovering from sub 6k ever since breaking below the channel. This was followed by many hard bounces and fomos. Eventually we made it to the top of the descending trend line and failed to break out. Price action has been decreasing ever since. I expect BTC drop down to the bottom the channel and bounce up to the resistance line and breaking out. This will form a large inverse head and shoulders. This Inverse H&S can take us to 17k where we might reject, if we do not reject, open target.
EURCAD Sell IdeaH4 - Bearish divergence followed by bearish convergence. So we may now expect a correction to happen and once the correction completes itself, we can start looking for sells.
M15 - Two bearish divergence in a row, two false breaks. If the price breaks and closes below 1.5625, we can look for sells.
Protection – Above last high.
Invalidation – If the price moves higher and breaks above 1.5655, then this setup is invalidated.
CHFJPY Buy IdeaD1 - Price reached uptrend line, hidden bullish divergence formed.
H4 - Bullish divergence.
H1 - Multiple false breaks, alternative trend line false break, bullish divergence. The price has broken above the downtrend line and also it has currently broken above the middle point at 115.186.
We can now join the bulls aiming the price to reach the target zones marked in the screenshots, based on the retrace level of the cycles.
EURUSD - balance range (1.2218-1.2295)EURUSD is in balance (consolidation) now with a range levels 1.2218-1.2295. In Friday we saw a false break down of this balance.
What to do now?
There are 3 options in this case:
p 1. Trade after consolidation will be break up.
If the price breaks out level 1.2295 and holds above, we must wait for a correction to upper balance level and than buy.
p 2. Trade after consolidation will be break down.
If the price breaks out level 1.2218 and holds below, we must wait for a correction to lower balance level and than sell.
But you must remember - if false break out/down happens and the price will return back into the balance you need to close position immediately.
p 3. Trade inside the balance from the lower balance level (it's not recommended to trade against a false break out/down). In this case you need to put stop below the false break down.
POWR/BTC Volume Analysis Prediction 2/7/2018Power coin made a false break down of strong supoort level 6485.
Also the price break out the trend line.
On intraday chart we have a strong bullish trend.
In summary, buy priority with a great potential.
Trade recommendation:
Entry point: 7890 (buy limit), 8602 (buy stop).
Stop: 7349
Target1: 9850
Target2: 10900
Target3: 11700
Glossary of terms
Point of Control (P O C) – The price level for the time period with the highest traded volume .
Value Area (V A) – The range of price levels in which a specified percentage of all volume was traded during the time period. Typically, this percentage is set to 70% however it is up to the trader’s discretion.
Balance - Accumulation Area.
USDCAD Buy IdeaH1 - Bearish divergence, pullback with false break, one leg divergence, price broke below the low at 1.25031. We might see the price pushing lower now.
M30 - If the price moves lower and creates one more leg down with bullish divergence. Then we can go long with the breakout of the most recent high.
Invalidation: If the price moves higher and breaks above the high at 1.256658 before creating one more leg down, then this setup is invalidated.