Analyzing BAJFINANCE: A Simple BreakdownOverview
The price action around the ₹7,440 resistance level tells an interesting story. Initially, the price broke above this key level with increased trading activity (volume), signaling strong buying interest. However, it couldn’t stay above ₹7,440 for long and fell back below the resistance in the following sessions. Despite this, the selling pressure was weak, as shown by the lower trading activity during the drop. This suggests that sellers weren’t very aggressive.
Signs of Buyer Strength
One important observation in the circled area is that the price has been forming higher lows. This means buyers are stepping in at slightly higher levels each time, showing they are still interested. The latest green candle, which has a noticeable increase in volume, further supports this idea. It indicates that buyers are regaining control and may attempt to push the price higher.
Was It a Failed Breakout or a Retest?
While the first attempt to break ₹7,440 failed, the price hasn’t fallen much. Instead, it seems to be consolidating in a range, with strong buyer support around ₹7,200–₹7,300. This could mean the price is preparing for another breakout attempt, making this a potential retest phase rather than a complete failure.
What to Watch for Next
The next big signal will come if the price closes above ₹7,440 with strong trading activity. This would confirm a successful breakout and could lead to further upward movement. Until then, traders might want to wait for clear confirmation to avoid getting caught in a false signal.
Study
The circled area highlights a battle between buyers and sellers. While the initial breakout failed, the price has shown resilience by holding above key support levels. If buyers continue to gain strength and push the price above ₹7,440, we could see a bullish trend emerge. Until that happens, patience is key.
Falsebreakout
GOLD → Correction after a false breakout. What's next?FX:XAUUSD reaches a key resistance that stops a strong rally. A false breakdown triggered a correction, which could be a chance for comfortable buys.
The gold price stabilized around $2,725 after a three-day climb, remaining under profit taking pressure. Strong data on China's economy failed to inspire the market as real estate concerns and possible U.S. tariffs dampened optimism.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to support gold despite mixed data on the US labor market and retail sales. The Fed chief's statements about possible rate cuts in the first half of the year are adding support to the metal.
Next week, traders' attention will be focused on US housing and industrial production data.
Support levels: 2700, 2697
Resistance levels: 2712, 2721
Global and local trend is bullish. Counter-trend correction is being formed. Technically, the correction may reach the zone of interest 2700 - 2697, from which we should expect a rebound, for example, to 2712, or even the recovery of the bullish trend.
Regards R. Linda!
SOLANA → Will a false breakdown be the cause of the rally?BINANCE:SOLUSDT is testing a previously broken downtrend boundary as part of a correction. Bulls are employing aggressive methods to keep defenses above key support ahead of Trump's inauguration, keeping hopes high
On the weekly timeframe, the market is supported by SMA50 support indicating a strong uptrend. The focus is on two strong levels: 204.75 and 175. These are the boundaries of the current range. A breakdown of any of the boundaries will play a key role in further price movement. But I consider the realization of resistance as a priority.
On D1 yesterday a false break of strong support was formed in the form of previously broken downtrend resistance. This indicates that the market is still in a bullish plane and on the background of upcoming important news this could have a favorable impact for the coin.
Resistance Levels: 203-204
Support levels: 183, 175
If the price starts to retest the support at 175 and form a consolidation with a gradual downward compression, the risk of breaking the bullish pattern will increase.
But, based on fundamental data, I expect a consolidation above 183 and further growth
Regards R. Linda!
GBPUSD → Consolidation in the selling zone held by bearsFX:GBPUSD made an attempt to grow, but could not overcome the bears' pressure zone. The reasons for the growth are the dollar correction, which was short-lived. The main trend is not broken.
On D1 the price after breaking through the key support at 1.25 tested it already as resistance within the correction. A false breakout of resistance is formed and price consolidation in the selling zone. The sharp impulse was related to the dollar, which fell after Trump's comments on rumors related to his policy. The dollar returned to the upside creating another bout of pressure on GBP.
Technically, the main trend is bearish. The price is in the selling zone and bears are not ready to give up their positions.
The risk of trend change may come after the breakout of 1.26, but it is too early to talk about it...
Resistance levels: 1.2575, 1.26
Support levels: 1.2488, 1.2449
The price is trying to consolidate in the selling zone, which generally indicates which way the market intends to go. Bears are increasing pressure and if they keep the price below 1.2488 - 1.2449, we will see a fall in the short and medium term.
Regards R. Linda!
Strong EUR? - A EUR/USD AnalysisEUR/USD has displayed bullish characteristics over the last couple of weeks.
- We have reach a high in the market @ 1.095.
- This high was made after a bullish A,B,C,D pattern aka (Trend).
- In bullish markets, prices tend to find support at the previous high, the previous high in this market (To me) is @ 1.085.
- We currently have made a bullish pin bar rejection candle on 3/19/2024.
- Currently we have untapped orders at 1.098, this is where I believe prices want to go in the next month.
- Breaking the 1.098 level, could lead to a bigger move up toward 1.11.
** as always, trade smart, trade responsible, and manage the risk as much as the reward **
BITCOIN → False breakout of $ 65,000. What's next ↓ ?BINANCE:BTCUSD entered a strong buying zone (above 65K), but the bulls failed to realize the potential. The price returned in the channel boundaries, eliminating the positively-minded... A false breakout is forming relative to 65K.
After the liquidation and strong impulse, a small correction is formed, directed to the imbalance zone. The retest may end with the bears holding the defense below 65K, in this case the price may start a gradual decline due to the lack of opportunity to break through 65K (in this case the all-time favorite pattern “Head and Shoulders” may form here). The focus is on the support 62745, below which an ogrom pool of liquidity is formed, if the price enters this zone, the market may spill down.... The global range of 65K - 55K is still relevant. It is not excluded that the resistance can be broken quickly, but for the moment the fight for 65K is still going on... Bears will be able to confirm their victory provided the price consolidates below 62800.
Resistance levels: 65K, 66K
Support levels: 62745, 61320
As the fight for 65K continues, the bulls may make another attempt on the background of the retest. If they will be able to consolidate above the 65-66K zone, the price will head to the global resistance - 68-69K, where a more serious, fierce struggle will develop...
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ BINANCE:BTCUSDT ;)
Regards R. Linda!
This is NOT Bullish for the Stock Market!This week The Fed lowered rates and everyone was "SURE" that this would lead to a huge market yeet in stocks and Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD ... but are we getting it?
Price closed the week with an attempt to break higher on the S&P 500 futures CME_MINI:ES1! BUT closed BACK INSIDE the prior All Time High. THIS is a key sign of a potential reversal. In this video I look at similar instances to demonstrate how this simple element of price action is often all one needs to correctly identify reversals whether it is Bitcoin, individual stocks, or the market as a whole!
SPY testing key resistance levelsSPY today broke its resistance level set back in July after processing the rate cut. Other worrying signs to emerging though
shorter term resistance is breached to the upside
Longer term resistance line show SPY is back to pushing the limits trying to break above
Last time we experienced break above long term resistance in July it was followed by steep sell off in August
We should not be celebrating and jumping in on SPY just yet, looking like its poised for another correction. It is September-October after all.
Aussie Dollar looks a little weak Mid September 2024
This is a trade idea Short that might work early this next week until the FOMC meeting on Thursday when the Aussie-dollar could in fact breakout to the upside on news of a US interest rate cut.
But do you ever get the sense and strange feeling that they have taken measures to now allow the greenback to fall lower as in recent weeks.....
5 Minute Chart:
PLTR suffered a false breakout abovePLTR had a false breakout before moving back into congestion zone and breaking below its internal upward trend
False breakout leading to pullback into trading zone
broke through internal upward trend
low volume during this time indicates congestion.
Potentially looking at a pullback in time before more rallying continues
PLTR is certainly a great stock and recently getting into S&P 500 just adds to it.
How I used Volume Spread Analysis to avoid FOMO trading!As a trader, I often battle with the fear of missing out (FOMO), a common pitfall among traders that can lead to impulsive, unprofitable trades. After reviewing my journal, I determined that chasing breakouts was costing me a significant portion of my account, so I studied Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) to help me reduce my urges. Here is how is used VSA to avoid FOMOing a trade.
Before we get started, let's clarify two definitions:
Volume: Measures the number of times buyers and sellers exchange 1 unit of an asset at an agreed-upon price. It doesn't inherently indicate whether a trend is bullish or bearish, but rather that a trade has occurred. Low volume suggests that few transactions have taken place because buyers and sellers couldn't agree on price. High volume suggests that buyers OR sellers felt they were getting a bargain at the current price, leading to many transactions.
Spread/Range: The difference between the high and low of a candlestick. A narrow spread indicates little variance between what someone is willing to buy for and what someone is willing to sell for. A wide spread suggests that buyers and sellers have significantly different ideas of what the fair price is.
In short, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) interprets the relationship between trading volume and candle spread. When volume and spread agree, they are considered harmonious, and the trend will probably continue. If volume and spread disagree, there is a divergence, and the trend may be weak or could even reverse. In general, there are three main harmonious conditions:
Narrowing spread should have narrowing volume.
Average spread should have average volume.
Widening spread should have widening volume.
I spotted a bear flag consolidation on QQQ and decided I would trade the breakout to the downside. I took a break and came back to the chart just after the breakdown had occurred, missing my ideal entry. The candle spread was widening and my first thought was "I have to get in! This thing is free falling!" PAUSE! I reminded myself that I cant make every dollar in the market. If I miss this trade, there will always be another. "Be patient and wait for the market to come back to you."
This is the chart after the initial break. What can we observe? QQQ broke the low of day with high volume and a widening red candle. Based on our definitions from earlier, we know that high volume means that buyers or sellers think they are getting a bargain so they are willing to transact as much as they can at current price. Given that price is falling, we can assume that the volume is due to aggressive selling. We remain patient and continue to watch for something to trade against.
Next, we see a narrower range candle with a long lower shadow and above average volume. By definition, strong volume with a narrow range is a possible divergence. We know that narrow range candles mean that buyers and sellers generally agree on current price, but why would it close near the highs if the selling was so aggressive? Given that there is a long lower shadow and then a bullish candle close, we can infer that sellers were not willing to sell below $467.89. The buyers absorbed the selling at those prices.
Fast forwarding, we notice that the volume and candle size has shrunk back to the average meaning buyers and sellers are in agreeance. The number of people willing to transact is decreasing. We also notice that a small range has formed. Buyers have not stepped in to buy above the previous low of day at $469.35 and the sellers have shown no effort to get back below $467.89. Now we have something to trade against instead of FOMOing in! We will look for a break of this range with increased volume.
On the next candle we see bulls break out of the range with aggressive volume and a wide spread candle. Something of note is that the volume on this bull candle is less that the volume of our initial sell candle. If those sellers were still present, wouldn't they be selling at these higher prices and forcing the candle range to be narrow? This shows us that bulls are now in control and the selling from earlier was just a hoax.
As we can see, the rest is history. If I FOMOed into the short as I had planned, this trade would have resulted in a loss. Being patient allowed me to realize that there was nothing to miss out on and actually allowed me to find a better trade.
Key Notes
Always journal your trades and review them
Never FOMO into a trade. Be patient and wait for the trade to come to you!
You dont need to take every trade to make money in the market. It is okay to miss a trade if it means protecting your account.
Volume spread analysis is not 100%, but it can be useful in determining the strength of a trend.
GBPUSD → False breakout of the range boundary FX:GBPUSD is testing wide range resistance in the distribution phase against the backdrop of the falling dollar. The market spent energy on strong growth and there is little chance of a breakout of 1.305, a correction or consolidation may follow.
GBPUSD strengthens the bullish trend, but on its way meets strong resistance - the border of the range. Within the range, the price may form a correction to the nearest liquidity zones, such as 1.297, 1.294 or 0.5 fibo.
Fundamentally, the dollar is declining amid the dovish stance of the Fed. The focus is on Friday's speech of Powell. The official's strong hints may intensify currency movements and volatility in the market.
Support levels: 1.297, 1.294, 1.292
Resistance levels: 1.3044
Technically, a reversal follows after a strong rise and a false breakdown. The range boundaries are still in place and continue to hold the price
Regards R. Linda!
GBPNZD Good potential Currency pair to dropAs I look at this chart, I consider this as a good potential chart to drop further.
However I just recently see this opportunity and didn't set my order, but I will set my pending order based on the sell order I put on the chart.
If you found my analysis suitable for yourself, please like and subscribe to get access on my new analysis and updates.
Good luck!
EURUSD → Change of mood after a false breakout. $ is rising FX:EURUSD on D1 is trading in a strong and neutral sideways movement. SMAs just lay on the horizontal plane, but on H4-H1 a change of market character is forming on the background of growth of the dollar index
Overall, the global neutral trend allows trading without much emphasis on the trend as there is none. The price is moving between the range boundaries, which simplifies the technical analysis.
On H4 the market is changing its mood on the background of the dollar index growth, which in general can lead to the retest of the support zones and the liquidity located behind them.
At the moment the focus is on the lower boundary of the range 1.08-1.082. A retest is possible in the near term, and the liquidity behind the zone could influence a bullish correction before a subsequent drop.
Resistance levels: 1.085
Support levels: 1.0816, 1.08, 1.078
S&P PMI and New Home Sales are published today, it is worth paying attention to the news, as positive news for the US may strengthen the fall of the currency pair, while unpredictable news may affect the market in the opposite way
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:EURUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GBPUSD → False breakdown led to the beginning of correctionFX:GBPUSD forms a false breakdown of resistance, which leads to a change in the nature of market movement. At this time, the dollar temporarily changes course and moves to the correction phase.
GBPUSD is globally bullish. After breaking through resistance on D1, the price moves into the correction phase, which was generally logical to expect.
Ahead is the key area on H4 - 1.29 from which a rebound is possible. A reversal pattern is forming locally, but the probability of a trend change is low. In the medium term I expect a correction to 0.5-0.7 fibo with further reversal, but the long-term outlook is bullish. The reason for this movement is the unstable fundamental environment due to the presidential race in the U.S. as well as the politically dependent opinion of the Fed, as well as the forex market movements are beginning to be influenced by Trump's speeches....
Resistance levels: 1.2978
Support levels: 1.290, 1.286, 1.284
Technically, we should wait for a bounce from 1.29 by 10-20% from the current movement with the aim to continue the correction towards the mentioned support zone. Thursday's news supported the dollar, today the general fundamental background remains (no news).
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ GBPUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → False break of bullish range support ↑FX:XAUUSD is forming a false breakdown of the previously mentioned range - 2390 - 2400. The return to the buying zone is forming, buyers can push the price to 2450
A reversal swing pattern is forming in relation to the support, which is evidence of buyers' strength. The fundamental background is still unstable, there are many nuances from the Fed and the US presidential race, the geopolitical background in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is relatively stable. Today there is no news and in general we can bet on the work of technical analysis.
Technically, if the bulls hold the defense above 2400-2405, then in the medium term we should expect an upward movement towards local liquidity zones as well as towards the upper boundary of the range.
Resistance levels: 2405, 2412, 2420
Support levels: 2400, 2392
The market confirms the presence of the range, it is not excluded that the price may go down, but at the moment the situation looks like the bulls are actively defending the lower boundary of the range, which determines the short-term and medium-term prospects....
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ GOLD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
ETHEREUM → 4K Target. Waiting for SEC with ETH-ETF ↑BINANCE:ETHUSDT is ending the sell-off phase. Buyers have held a strong support area, forming an intermediate bottom. The liquidity capture led to a rebound, which can move into the phase of the uptrend continuation.
Fundamentally, the main focus is on ETH-ETFs. Earlier traders were positive about the initial rumors of approval, now the important milestone is the admission of ETFs to trading, judging by the feedback and SEC sentiment, this could happen very soon (within 1-2 weeks)
Technically, strong buyers appear in the 2800-2900 zone (judging by candlestick patterns and volume growth), restraining the market from falling and gaining momentum with the purpose of further strengthening (local price movement has a consolidation character).
The trigger area for buyers is 3200. Accordingly, further final consolidation of the price above MA-200 and breakout of 3200 may become the reason for strengthening, the target of which may be 4000-4800.
Resistance levels: 3200, 3357
Support levels: MA-200, 2868
Fundamentally, the situation is positive, traders are waiting for the news from SEC. Technically, on local timeframes there are prerequisites for a bullish mood, on D1 a rebound from strong support is forming. Accordingly, the overall tandem is signaling a possible further rise to 4K.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ♦︎ ETHEREUM ♦︎ ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Retest of the liquidity area in front of the bullrun ↑ FX:XAUUSD in the correction phase. The market is testing the support and liquidity zone within the counter-trend correction. The dollar may continue its downward phase, which would be a bullish leverage for the gold market
In the week ahead it is worth paying attention to the S&P PMI to be released on Wednesday, GDP and Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday and PCE on Friday.
Trump, as the presidential race progresses, has a growing chance of winning. If that happens, gold and cryptocurrencies will benefit on that backdrop. There is not much news today, so gold may test the liquidity area hiding behind 2390-2400. It is also worth paying attention to the new range of 2492 - 2390. Accordingly, if the bulls hold the defense above the lower boundary of this range, we will get a new trading plane.
Resistance levels: 2411, 2420, 2430
Support levels: 2392, 2386
When trading gold, I recommend to always pay attention to the behavior of the dollar index, as it plays the main role in the market. Accordingly, if the dollar will begin to decline to the support with the purpose of breakthrough, in this case we should expect further growth in the gold market
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ GOLD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GBPUSD → The correction is coming to an end. Next is 1.310? FX:GBPUSD is in a correction phase testing the liquidity area as well as a strong support level from D1. The correction is news related, but something happened over the weekend that could put selling pressure on the dollar.
Technically GBPUSD is bullish, as evidenced by the update of the highs and the counter-trend correction to the liquidity area.
Yesterday, Biden announced that he was withdrawing from the presidential race, fielding Kamala Harris in his place. Trump's odds are rising in this case, and he has previously hinted that he wants a weaker dollar. Against this background, the DXY may continue its bearish course, which may generally favor the forex market.
Technically, 1.28940 is worth paying attention to. A false breakdown could trigger further growth. But, if the bulls will not let the price to this zone, it will be enough to wait for the price to consolidate above 1.294.
Resistance levels: 1.294, 1.297
Support levels: 1.2894, 1.286
Technically the market is bullish, fundamentally everything is good. Most likely, interested buyers are still in the market, so the pressure for further growth may continue
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ GBPUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
ZENUSDT → Bullish potential in the red market. Break of 10.0 ↑BINANCE:ZENUSDT demonstrates a rally and a retest of the range resistance in the form of a false breakdown, only that does not lead to a fall. The price is forming a pre-breakdown consolidation. With the breakout of 10.0, the growth may continue
On H4, a reversal pattern is forming within the framework of which, while the cryptocurrency market was falling, zen was testing resistance. A false breakout and liquidity capture is formed. This maneuver does not lead to a fall, and the market goes into a state of consolidation, the nature of which resembles a pre-breakdown.
There are no fundamentals, the market follows the flagships, which fall because of some problems. Bitcoin is dragging everyone down due to the sale of a large number of coins by Germany, and the debt repayment by Mt.Gox exchange, which has destabilized the situation in general.
Resistance levels: 9.79-10.0
Support levels: 9.35, 8.8, 8.14
In this case, it is acceptable to use a breakout strategy against resistance at 9.79-9.87. But, if the structure will be broken, the price, in order to increase the volume before the growth may head towards the support.
Regards R. Linda!