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Falsebreakout

NIO: What it needs to fly again?Hello traders and investors! Let’s take a look at NIO today! Since it reported earnings, NIO has been in a bearish momentum, and it seems nothing will reverse it. The last support was at $ 38.66, and NIO lost it, but what does this means? We are still far from May’s bottom at $ 30, and since it dropped that sharply, it has good chances of bouncing back up, but so far, we have no bullish structure in the 1h chart. On the bright side, we are near the support level, and it seems NIO didn’t lost it completely, as we see early signs of reaction. Let’s see the daily chart for more clues: We have a bullish candlestick pattern today, which is a start for a possible reversal, and since we are near the previous support level, now is the best time for NIO react. If we close above the $ 38.66 again, it will be a false breakout from the support level, and this will be very frustrating for the bears, as they will be stopped out. Since we hit the support, the volume increased, and if we see a reaction, the 21 ema will be the target for us. Then we’ll see if it’ll be a Dead Cat Bounce or the beginning of a true reversal. But I agree that today’s reaction is not the best so far, and we must wait for more information. The situation is very delicate, and how NIO will react in this support will dictate the next big movement. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. Have a good day.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
6
FCPO Identify Fake Breakout and How to Trade it?When the price is near the SnR it is where get it will get tricky...either the price want to continue the trend or reverse? The false breakout strategy : 1. Timeframe 15min 2. Identify strong valid SnR 3. Draw the zone by pick the wick and the neck. 4. If price breakout and 2nd CS close inside the zone, it is a false breakout and entry position after 2nd CS close. 5. TP for the false breakout can be the opposite SnR. Valid breakout strategy: Trend continuation 1. Use 15min and 1min chart for confirmation.
MYX:FCPO1!Education
by ArifHasbollah
What Is a Failed Break?A failed break (false breakout) occurs when a price moves through an identified level of support or resistance but does not have enough momentum to maintain its direction. Failed breaks may also signal traders to enter a trade in the opposite direction of the attempted breakout. Since the breakout attempt failed, the price could head the other direction. A throwback is when the price retraces back toward the resistance or support level just broken. A throwback is not a failed breakout. How to detect failed breaks? A failed breakout reveals that there was not enough buying interest to keep pushing the price above resistance or below support. If a security does not see strong volume and substantial price moves supporting the breakout direction, the chance of a false breakout increases. Take a look at the chart and see how the uptrend line is broken with unexpected low trading volume. If there is significantly increased volume on a breakout, the likelihood of a false breakout developing decreases (but is not eliminated). However, a throwback may still occur.
Education
by BobRivera990
61
DXY will fall from Potential Reversal zone ?DXY will fall from Potential Reversal zone ? #DXY (Dollar Index): Important Decision Ahead Many dollar pairs are standing on key levels today. With a coming CPI report, the market participants are waiting for the trigger to either push the Greenback higher or to finally start shorting it. ⚠️DXY is testing a historical resistance at the moment. Bearish movement will initiate only fasle bull breakout of Potential Reversal zone. That will be a decent confirmation. target will be 92.5 firstly For bullish scenario, consider a daily candle close above the underlined daily resistance as the confirmation for a further bullish continuation.
TVC:DXYShort
by locphatfunds
Let the bitcoin ride!Hey there, crypto lovers! As we see on the BTC/USDT chart, There's been two false breakouts so far. (eg. price breaking out out of a trend and going back inside the trend.) While false breakouts are many traders' nightmares, yet no fear, my dear! because the good news is, that the more a trend's limit is tested and penetrated by the price, the weaker it gets. Yet it's early to call it an start of another bull run, in my opinion we are at the edge of the market deciding it's path. TLDR: If the price breaks the trendline again, this time it's more likely to be an start of an uptrend. For confirmation you can wait for a pull back to see how the price behaves after a breakout. Blessed be the bitcoin! ;)
Long
by Blockchainophil
USDCAD | Perspective for the new weekWe scooped over 500pips from our last publication as price moved aggressively in our direction ( see link below for reference purposes). Earlier in the week, we witnessed high volatility as price hit a high at CA$1.28000 ish only to fall drastically during the week to close below a major Support/Resistance level @ CA$1.26300 with signs expressing doubt of buying the Greenback over the Canadian Dollar. With all eyes focused on FOMC in the coming week; a Channel Breakdown expectation, a V-shaped recovery in oil prices (check USOil chart) coupled with a better than expected Canadian retail sales report is a positive sign for me to sell the Greenback for the Loonie in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Channel | Reversal set-up Observation: i. It is evident from our Daily chart that the USD has been on a rally since June 2021 and it appears to have found a peak at CA$1.28000. ii. The beginning of July 2021 expressed a steady growth in the Dollar as price action is contained between upward sloping parallel lines. iii. The appearance of an Ascending Channel is confirmed after drawing a lower trend line that connecting the swing lows, and an upper channel line that joining the swing highs. iv. The Breakout of the channel on the 19th of July 2021 appears to be a false one after considering the pattern of the Bearish move that followed the Breakout which also closed below the major Support/Resistance level @ CA$1.26300 on the daily chart - a sign that Buyers could not hold the momentum above this level for long. v. I look forward to a breakdown of my new Key level @ CA$1.25500 and channel to the downside in the coming as the likelihood for a rise in USOil becomes evident. vi. In this regard, I have identified a niche around CA$1.26300/1.25400 for selling opportunity with a high probability of a Channel Breakdown. vii. See the chart for levels that might welcome opportunities to add to our existing position. viii. For fellow cautious traders, below Key level remains a safe haven to sell... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 5 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
SPX: A new record high! Should we be nervous about it?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today! Once again, we have a new record high on the SPX, and this was already expected. I thought we were going to see another pullback, at least in the 1h chart, but it seems the bears can’t stand against the momentum. But should we be nervous about it? Well, let's see what technical analysis has for us. This movement corroborates with the 6th tenet of the Dow Theory: Trends persist, until a clear reversal occurs . So far, we had no reversal sign around, only pullback signs. We dropped sharply to the previous support at 4,289 (even went a little bit below this point), but this was a just a false breakout. Could the SPX drop again? Of course, but there’s nothing telling me that it’ll. The key point that could make it drop more is the 4,393 . If the SPX closes under it today, or does a bearish candlestick in the beginning of next week and closes below it as well, then we might see another pullback. The intensity of this possible pullback is unknown. We could retest the 21 ema and quickly recover, or hit the purple trendline (we would need to see a stronger bearish structure in the 1h chart for this). Truth be told, it has been some time since we didn’t touch the 21 ema in the weekly chart . If the index corrects to such a point, keep in mind that the long-term trend would still be bullish, as we still would have higher highs/lows. For now, we can just assume the trend will persist, and wait for a clear reversal sign, as Charles Dow, the father of Technical Analysis, wisely advised us to do, nearly one century ago. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. And support this idea if it helped you! Have a good weekend!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
BEL > False Breakout, New Trendline > Next move? (UPDATE)Hello Friends, Hope you all are having a thrill in your trading journey. I am presenting you my analysis of BEL. My previous analysis on BEL was not successful. Unfortunately, I think it was a false retest. According to my new technical analysis, BEL will again go up as it is following a strict trendline. I hope my analysis is pretty clear to you guys. Kindly do your own research and follow proper risk management. Feel free to share your views in the comment section. Like and Follow! Best Regards, Shaswat Naman TradeThrill, India🇮🇳 Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
Long
by tradethrill
Why is #MATIC not breaking free from #bitcoin?? considering the chart, the circled part was a false break-out which created SWING LOW from the Previous SWING HIGH, CORRECTION of 50% completed with a CONTINUATION which broke the 0.00% SUPPORT LEVEL of the Swing Low, a RETEST to the TRENDLINE now acting as a Resistance then a continuation which created he recent Bottom Valid Trend and an Asymmetric channel up. Price broke through the Major Resistance trendline an is currently creating a CONSOLIDATION at CROSS SECTION of TWO MAJOR TRENDLINE and a Minor Resistance Zone. A break above the Resistance Zone and the trendline acting as CURRENT RESISTANCE, gives us a valid LONG POSITION.
MLong
by MII1502
GBPUSD Good buy opportunity!Based on the chart, price have reached a major support area and a false breakout have happened. Also based on this false breakout we can conclude that there is strong demand at this area which can be good sign of buyers strength. Even more based on candlesticks, we can notice a good bullish Engulfing formed here 3 days ago while we can see no sign of sellers power. So based on this scenario I opened a buy position with a great risk reward ratio which can be about 1:4. Note: As always please take risk management rules into consideration before opening any position on the market. Good Luck!
Long
by Brian_Philips
NDX: Be careful! Bearish pattern ahead!Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about the NDX today! In the daily chart, we have the idea of a bearish harami, just at a resistance level (black line, previous top at 14,072). If the index closes under this black line, the market may see this as a false breakout and this would help to make the index fall. If it falls, then we have a dual-support level around the 13,700, as we have the 21 ema and the red line, which worked as a resistance before, now it can work as a support. The only thing that could frustrate this bearish sentiment is the 1h chart: Today’s drop could be just a harmless pullback to the 21 ema in the 1h chart, and the index did several movements like this in the past, so, no way to know how it’ll behave now. Now it is definitely not the time to buy. The time to buy was last month, when we had some incredible opportunities, and I bought several stocks with my followers, and they are doing incredibly well (several of our stocks are going up more than 40%, like the Brazilian ADRs we like to trade). Now it is the time to manage our positions. Will the bearish harami prevail, making the index will crash? Only time will tell. Meanwhile, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies, and support this idea if it helped you! Thank you very much.
TVC:NDQ
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
4
Keep an eye on this pivot point! 👁 👍Lyft is doing a nice pullback right now, in the 30min chart. The 20 is pretty close, but since the BB are so spread open, I believe it’ll move sideways for some time. The 60.26 is a pivot, and if Lyft breaks it, it’ll do something good. The problem is the RSI in the 4h chart, showing a bearish divergence + false breakout from the top area at 59s. This is another indicator that Lyft is not ready yet, but it can be in the future. It is one of the stocks that are on my radar, but it is not doing anything impressive for now. Let’s watch the pivot in the 30min chart closely! If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉. See you soon, Melissa.
NASDAQ:LYFT
by UnknownUnicorn21312077
2
AUDUSD Good buy opportunity!Based on the chart, price showed a major support area in previous days and this zone rejected the price from getting lower in some days but finally this support area broke at 3rd of June and we can see a perfect rejection of price at 4th of June. So we can easily conclude that a false breakout have happened at this point(Or it shows that the market didn't accept the lower price which can be a good sign of bullish market!). Therefore based on these scenarios I opened a buy position (as it presented on the chart) with a good amount of risk reward ratio(about 1:3). Note: As always please take risk management rules into consideration before opening any position on the market. Good Luck!
Long
by Brian_Philips
NIO: It hit our target! What's next for us?Hello traders and investors! NIO hit our target at $ 43.13, the technical target for the V-Shape recovery , and we are trading above the target. The link to our last analysis is below this post. What’s next for us? First, in the 1h chart, since we already defeated the resistance at $ 43.13, this point is supposed to work as a support. Notice that NIO just did an upwards breakout from a trap zone , when it was trading between the 21 ema and the resistance at $ 43.13. All of these are good news, and NIO has no pullback/reversal sign around . Even if it drops again to the 21 ema in the 1h chart, the bullish thesis would be intact. Now, to the daily chart: The only thing that annoys me is the low volume . If NIO loses today’s low, then it can easily retest the 21 ema in the daily chart again. Also, it must not close under the $ 43.13, as the market might see this as a false breakout . Of course, this wouldn’t be enough to change the trend, it would just mean we’ll see a pullback, and since the trend is bullish, this means an opportunity to buy. But for now, all we can say is that the $ 46.28 is the next target. Let’s keep our eyes open here, and stay alert to these key points. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies, and support the idea if you liked it! Thank you very much!
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
EURUSD a false breakout 🦐EURUSD is trading above the support area and bounces over it a few times. The market attempt to break with a clear false breakout and currently is consolidating above it. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
Triangle breakout after a false breakThere was a very sharp false breakout to the downside that happened and I thought for sure EURUSD will go down further. However, this was followed by a move up to the previous range. As far as theory goes, a false break will make the trend in the main direction stronger. I soo wanted to go long here but problem is its already Fri and near closing time. I don't want to have a trade hanging over the weekend so I'm gonna have to pass but will monitor this first thing on Monday and see whether I can enter a trade.
Long
by jrebong