Falsebreakout
$EURUSD-Banking on a False Breakout? - Working with Levels (SMT)Yes, I know my chart looks Sloppy, but when you analyze the 5min chart for price action, it's going to look that way. Now...
First Piece to this puzzle DXY RSI divergence with Price Action. Looks like we should see a bullish Dollar after breaking a new low. And I wouldn't trade this Until we have confirmation that it does break a new low and/or comfortable with the fact that we can confirm a bullish dollar. Otherwise this trade will be a waste of money and time.
Second, there are baked in unseen natural support and resistance prices that take place at the 0 ,2 ,5 ,8 levels. We say this last time when EURUSD dropped good ways from when it hit 1.18800 a few weeks ago. So therefore I have a few levels in place anticipating such action. 1.195, 1.198 nd 1.2, Where the previous high was reached. If I get a 30 pip drop from any of these levels, I think it would be wise to pay yourself and move stop loss accordingly after doing another evaluation to mitigate losses. Check to see if the low has been broken and where this falls in comparison to the baked in Support/Resistance levels. I would personally trade the false breakout at that point depending on If when it happens.
Third, Yes, we did break a high, yes the 4 HR and Daily are possibly going to have a closed candle above the "Resistance." Does that guarantee a breakout? Usually.. never. It takes time to build out from the Market Maker Buy/Sell Model and I believe we're at the top or nearing the top of a sell.
However, I'm not sure it would be in my best interest to trade this on a Friday. Or Monday for that Matter. However, if you're a swing trader, you can definitely use this as a False Breakout set-up. Multiple levels on the left where price action has occurred previously that may result in a reversal so these are key levels at which I like to analyze when reach and see if there is a need to take profit or not.
We shall see as price moves along throughout the day, I'll be watching the DXY and the EU to see if I would pull the trigger.
I could be completely wrong about this, but what do I know. I'm just some guy who likes to post his ideas.
Good Luck and Good Trading.
NZDUSD 0.68156 + 0.68% SHORT IDEA * PRICE ACTION & CORRECTIONHEY EVERYONE
Here's one on the NZ DOLLAR / US DOLLAR PAIR that rallied up with the bulls broke the resistance level 0.68106 now support as the pair retested this structure likely signalling continuation with the bull but i'm targeting a correction of this move to the upside as the pair is overbought on most indicators and is showing signs of slowing down in momentum will be approaching this one with pending orders and if possible tight stop.
for entries we scale down to smaller time-frames to determine entries and so forth.
many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules.
LET'S SEE HOW IT GOES..
HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN...
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ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES
here's some of my rules if they help.
1. look at structure be it descending channels, pennants and so forth.
2. RSI is overbought/oversold so will be looking for a pull back to structure before continuation.
3. will be looking for entries from 30M , 1H, 2H & 4H time-frames if taking the trade long term.
4. aggressive trades can be executed on the pull back
5. price action must definitely align with the plan.'
6. structure definitely
7. the 20 EMA must be respected as support / see a bounce at this structure
8. FIBONACCI EXTENSIONS AS GUIDELINES FOR SL & TP'S .
9. CANDLE STICK PATTERNS.
so i will most like's enter this one in a bit but i hope this idea assists in any way on your trading plan.
RISK-MANAGEMENT
PERIOD - SWING TRADE
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If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
TSLA: What's next for it?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Tesla is doing today! Let's do a Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA) and study some scenarios to work with from now on.
We have a bull trend in the hourly chart, as it is doing higher highs / higher lows , but it just hit an important resistance level, the pink line at $ 442.50. As evidenced by the pink arrows, it worked as support and resistance in the past.
It seems Tesla will fail in defeating this resistance, so a retest of the 21 ema or the black line at $ 430 is something we can expect in the short-term. This pullback would be considered normal and healthy, but we may see a sharper pullback if Tesla loses the black line. In fact, although the stock is bullish in the hourly chart, the daily chart is still in a congestion:
We see that Tesla is moving sideways since the beginning of September, but it seems we have a clear resistance at $ 461, which is a target for us right now.
The 21 ema is flat, and Tesla needs more volume to defeat the $ 461 for good. I still see the $ 406 as an important support zone, despite the fact we had a false breakout from it in the beginning of this month.
The yellow area is an interesting buy zone , and we must look at the weekly chart to understand why:
The yellow zone is a triple support area in the weekly chart, made by the 21 ema, the previous support (pink line) and the purple line, which was support and resistance for the price in the past.
We can’t be sure if Tesla will ever hit the yellow zone again, but if it loses the $ 406, then we can focus on this area. But for now, let’s keep our eyes open in the hourly chart, as I believe it’ll offer us a better view of the situation on Tesla.
And if this idea helped you, please, support it ! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses.
I wish you all a great Monday!
ADABTC - false breakoutPrecondition for the false breakout
If the price by an impulse flies near the level.
fall for a long time.
rebound from the mirror level.
do you agree with me?
Dear followers, the best "Thank you" will be your likes and comments!
These ideas are not a channel with signals and I do not give recommendations on the entry/exit points.
In my reviews, I provide analytics - those data that help model potential options/scenarios for price movements
Thanks for your support!
GOLD will fall after a false breaAnother tool for which the US political agenda resulted in a false breakout of resistance on the chart.
However, we continue to monitor the situation.
And we stick to our forecast, which, despite the breakdown, continues to form as we need it: the price will continue to fall.
The daily chart shows that the price continues its downward movement between the two lines of support and resistance.
And I came to the resistance line - this is also my forecast that came true.
As I said, the breakout of the resistance line that we see on the chart is false.
It is associated with the ongoing US elections.
But it is already noticeable how the price began to fall during the day.
Therefore, I expect the price to continue to fall further.
Target - support line.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with likes.
Thank you for your support!
False breakout on GBPJPY chartHello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know your opinion in the comment section below
AAPL: Next targets and Key Points!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Apple is doing today!
It is resisting in a support zone (green line), which was a previous top, and now it is working as a support according to the Polarity Change . Also, it filled a Gap (blue area), and it may work as a support level as well.
Any good reaction near this green line would be a very good sign . On the other hand, if AAPL doesn’t react, then it’ll just resume the bearish momentum to the next support level, the black line around $ 112.85.
Now let’s see the daily chart:
The green line at $ 117.85 is the most important point right now, because it was a previous top, and it worked as a pivot point yesterday, and this led the stock to fill the gap and to the 21 ema again.
If AAPL trades above this green line again, the market will see this movement as a false breakout from a previous pivot point, and the bull trend will resume. The next target would be the All Time High again, especially if it triggers the Pivot Point at $ 125.39 (blue line).
Also, the volume is quite low these days, as evidenced by the red arrow, and this confirms our theory that this movement is just a pullback. According to Dow Theory’s 5th Tenet: The Volume Must Confirm the Trend . A pullback with low volume indicates that it is indeed a pullback, a quick movement against the trend that usually gives great opportunities.
If you liked this idea, please, support it! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses.
Have a great day.
need a solutionany solution for this bastard?
anyone have a solution for false breaksout?
anyone know how to predict the false breakout?
False Break Bearish RejectionPrice with this pair has been unable to break the daily resistance level and make a serious move into the extreme highs of the overall range.
As the daily chart shows; price formed a solid false break bearish rejection candle that broke the resistance and snapped back lower.
Price is now looking to move back into the daily support around 1.7959.
This is a very sideways market and both long and short trades can be hunted on the daily and smaller time frames.
Trades could also open up if the resistance gives way with price looking to move into the major highs of the range.
NZDCHF a false breaout 🦐NZDCHF on the daily chart is testing the bottom of a channel trendline and a daily support.
The market couldn't create new highs and with the last two 4h candles we have seen a clear false breakout.
IF the price will break and close below the structure we can set a nice short order according to Plancton's strategy.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
• 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
• 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
• 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
• 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
• ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
NZD
USDJPY SELL FAST !! Welcome Traders >> We Have Here Opportunity And Direction For $USDJPY
! Tools Details On Chart !
♦️ We Have Trend Area >>
♦️ We Have Resistance Area
♦ Key Level
📚 Vision 📚
🔷Sell To Up Trend And Buy From There To Test Resistance Again And Sell From It 🔷
!! Please Take care Trading Is Very Risk Don't Risk On Any Position
October will be very hot! It is a shortterm analysis to my previous scenario.
I see, that market is really expects US gov stimuluos package. If it will be accepted - i expect to see false brekout (with new all time high), but after that market will realise, that there is no other "positive signals".
I really think, that Oct2020 will be the last month with bullish attempts on market for nearest future
SET50 what are you thinking??Hi fellow traders! Hope we will all get a positive answer, to yesterdays bounce; are you done with going lower?
Yesterday, SET50 bounced of the Panic Gap Island's lows, and will it be enough to break the negative trend and start the second run to the north, from March lows.
Or if this was only to trap the buyers, in the bigger negative trend further down south.
Happy Trading and Never Forget To Protect Your Losses!
Week 37: FCPOX 2020 is worth a waitWeek 37: 07 to 11 September 2020
FCPOX 2020 analysis
Last week the price broke the resistance level, however it was not a clean break.
It means, it was not really a sign to be bullish yet. We are anticipating two possibilities:
The key to observe is RM 2,740 - 2,750, we will see the behaviour of Price Action in this area.
(1) If the price bounce at RM 2,745 area, then it is a good sign to look for a BUY.
(2) If the price is back inside the previous consolidation zone, we can be sure that the past 2-3 days are just a False Breakout.
We will sell the whole-nine-yard when it happens.
That's why I recommend if we just sit tight and watch first, for now (Monday), no clear direction.
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee .
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Head and shoulders perttern Price has just complicated the fifth Eliot wave and gave a false break out for a head and shoulders perttern which is a confirmation for a trend reversal.
Bitcoin Faked The Fakeout? In my last analysis, I was a bit devided by the price action of Bitcoin. Bitcoin broke in and out of its triangle whether it was bullish or bearish. We spotted 2 false breakouts on the downside and one on the upside.
When the price was at the support line of the triangle, I said that Bitcoin had a 55% probability to rise to resistance and possibly break it. Right now, Bitcoin is at resistance again which gives me more confidence Bitcoin will rise to our target of 13k. Because the price is still in the triangle we can't get ahead of ourselves yet. So i raise my probability to 60% for the price to break bullish.
Now, this still is not enough confidence to take the trade. At least you want to be 70% sure that the trade will be successful. For that to happen, Bitcoin needs to get above the red resistance zone again. But for now i am more confident than i was yesterday. However i still am not as confident as i was 2 days ago.
To summarize: I still think it is more probable the price will reach our target of 13k. However I need to be sure for at least 70% before i make that claim again.
S&P 500 trade review - from false breakout to break downLast Friday price action still favored the story of supply absorption pending rally up to test the all time high. Narrow spread together with decreasing supply could justify this bullish scenario.
Check out the video for a complete walk through of the daily market analysis of S&P 500 futures (ES) for 17 Aug 2020 trading session. In this video, I am going to show you the market recap on the last session and potential trade reviews in the three-minutes timeframe (including entry, exit and the rationale behind). I will focus on two trades based on the false breakout (up thrust) setup to trading the breakdown. Going forward, I will cover the bias, the key levels to pay attention to, the potential setup for the US session later.
Check out my daily market analysis video on last session if you haven't in order to better relate to the market recap and the trade review.
Bias - neutral (Day trading); bullish (long term)
Key levels - Resistance: 3385–3400; Support: 3360–3365, 3320–3330, 3300, 3273, 3230
Potential setup - Look for potential long near 3360 upon a rebound.
Disclaimer: The information in this presentation is solely for educational purpose and should not be taken as investment advice.
false breakout reversalprice broke out and failed to close above the previous structure which give us a signal to go short.
Tesla False Break Out | Prijs Weer BullishIn de post van gisteren zei ik dat het waarschijnlijk is dat Tesla naar de support van 900 usd zou gaan om twee redenen.
1: Tesla brak bearish uit de descending triangle.
2: De prijs zat onder de 21 ema.
Wat nu echter is gebleken, is dat Tesla vandaag hoger opende dan de close van gisteren. Vervolgens zit de prijs boven de resistance van de 21 ema en de triangle. Dit zorgt er dus voor dat we onze mening moeten veranderen van bearish naar bullish. De data verteld ons namelijk dat de analyse van gisteren niet juist was. Wat je wilt voorkomen is dat je als trader je koppig gaat houden aan je eigen analyse. Wat je wilt of wat je denkt wat gaat gebeuren, is soms anders dan de realiteit. Accepteer die realiteit en zorg ervoor dat je direct klaar staat om een goede trade te maken, ondanks dat je analyse onjuist is verklaard door de data.
