Falsebreakout
USOIL LONG TRADEFalse breakout occurred at demand zone at level 49.39
and confirmed by strong bullish movement
MACD shows bullish momentum
RSI is above neckline of double bottom pattern
It's expected to target first key level at 52.19
then target supply zone at level 54.36
after covering price gap at level 53.28
GBPUSD: moving sideways, possible trade scenarioCable strengthened last week even though Sajid Javid, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, resigned...
..since the beginning of this year GBPUSD was moving sideways with the highest price around 1.321 and lowest around 1.287.
Last week it broke above 1.30 again and it seems like it was a false breakdown below 1.2945.
I will wait for a pullback to 1.299-1.2945 price zone for joining bulls with t/p target around 1.312 (R:R at least 2.85).
Today is Holiday in USA, so the liquidity might be low.
Keep in mind that this idea might be realized in several days and opening long position in GBPUSD results negative swap.
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GBPUSD: possible long scenarioThis idea is based on that the market is already pricing rate cut in GBP, so it is possible that we are going to see a strong pull back in price and then buy out from the level around 1.2957.. it provides decent R:R for joining bulls with stops below 1.29 and take profit around 1.312. (R:R=2.86)
If the rate remains unchanged it will be a positive scenario for GBP and it might continue going up without any pull back..
Keep in mind that this idea might be realized in several days and having long position in GBPUSD results negative swap.
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Facebook: There's Nothing Funny About a False BreakoutFacebook dropped sharply on Thursday after quarterly results raised questions about its longer-term growth story. Sure, the backward looking numbers weren't bad. But looking forward, newer offerings like Instagram don't seem to be catching fire. The "big blue app," with its slow-growing and ageing user base, isn't really thrilling investors.
This stands in contrast with other big tech names like Apple , Microsoft , Amazon.com and Tesla . Those are all evolving their businesses toward the "next big thing."
The technicals, as usual, show these fundamentals clearly: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN and TSLA have broken out to new highs. FB has not only failed to break out. It has a failed breakout.
This week's price action could have a long-term impact on the social-media giant because it represents a double-top spanning 18 months. Patterns like this are often followed by months, if not years, of consolidation and pain. Just look at Alphabet 's trading after its April 30, 2019, bearish gap.
That argues against rushing into FB here. Some chart watchers may like the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the $205.50 support area from July 2019. But this week's high-volume false breakout and double top could prove more powerful to the downside. It could be too early to buy the dip.
USDCHF: possible scenarioIt seems like there was a false breakout below 0.9645 support level, so we might see USDCHF moving up..
Joining bulls from around 0.967-0.9645 with 0.97255 take-profit provides decent R:R (at least 2.22)
Keep in mind that this idea can be realized in several days and USDCHF has positive swap.
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Nifty for TodayMarket breaked the triangle resistance, Today it will come to retest that resistance, If it fails it will came inside the triangle and the breakout may became an false breakout and we may expect to come support one and two. other wise it will reject in weekly resistance. 12360 is todays highest target in uptrend.
KMT divergence on descending channel false breakoutPros:
- Force Index making lower highs when prices are reaching higher highs.
- MACD bullish divergence
- SMA 200 bounce
Cons:
- Stock started to make higher lows. (More bullish)
Trade Grade: 6/8
- Profit potential: Average 1
- Divergence: Good 2
- Candle signal: Good 2
- Emtry timing: Average 1
- Counter trend trade?: No (0)
IT´S YET AGAIN ANOTHER FALSE BREAKOUT ON BITCOIN(Maybe the last)So China news came out, everyone feeling like a record rally since 2017 is set to change the whole bearish structure since the start of the summer... Guess what. Drawdown will go up for many of whom goes long before price begins to do higher lows & higher highs.
People are obsessed saying fundamentals move the price of Bitcoin every day. FAR FROM THE TRUTH.
It definitely moves altcoins along price levels, specially the ones linked to China like Tron, OmiseGo, etc... the releaseof the Chinese news impacts directly on the projects, same happens to them coins. But, according to Bitcoin´s price action, any gigantic news from the cryptoworld barely has any effect on it. At least not important for a day trader using timeframes from H1 to weekly.
Are you fundamental crackheads really trying to say that the start of this last weekend rally on Bitcoin, where price bounced off from a 50.0 % retracement + "high priority" demand line + lower line of a falling wedge + HUGE bullish divergence on simple price oscillators is simply because China is set to develop a whole new Blockchain environment ?
According to Wyckoff analysis, when composite operators begin a campaign to accumulate shares, contracts, etc., what happens inside consolidation periods or trading ranges cannot be analyzed without volume spread analysis. Here comes an updated H4 chart of BITFINEX:BTCUSD :
Last weekend´s rally has been planned since the 24th September´s breakdown!!
Conclusion.
Only expect Bitcoin to be bullish again above $10,000 / $11,000, and even before reaching these price targets a sequence of easy-eyed higher highs + lower lows with specially growing volume on bull candles closing at its highs shall be mandatory fro longs. According to Elliott analysis, a new bullish cycle could be on its way soon. Just try not to jump in early and wait for corrections on low volume and bullsih price action confirmation at the end of these setups.
Have a good week everybody, happy trading and be safe !!
@Mikephicc
ICE Long on Ascending Channel false support breakoutPros:
- MACD and FI confirm the move by ticking higher with prices
- Inverted Hammer + Hammer combo
- Overall high lows near SMA 100. Shows bulls strong attempt to push back above sma 100
- Cons:
Volume is decreasing as price increase in general near the sma100. (I ignored this because I am testing the theory to depend on FI instead of just pure volume)
Overall Trade Grade: 66% (8/12)
Uptrend: 2/3
MACD: 2/3
Force Index: 2/3
RSI: 2/3
USDCAD False Breakout?
STRATEGY: False Breakout Strategy/Counter-Trend
Long Term Trend Time Frame: 1D/4H
Focus Time Frame: 1H
Market Condition 1D:
Short Term: Downtrend (based on 100ema)
Long Term: Sideways
Market Condition 1H:
Short Term: Sideways
Long Term: Uptrend (based on 100ema)
Area of Value (AOV)
Resistance: 1.32915 - 1.33813
Support: 1.31118-1.30205
Entry Trigger:
1H: Bearish Engulfing
Entry Price (EP): 1.32216
Stop Loss (SL): 1.32426
Take Profit (TP): 1.31234
RRR: 4.68
Analysis:
1H: Price boke above minor resistance but immediately followed by bearish engulfing. Found support at descending trendline, however, price seems struggling reaching new high (pin bar was also formed rejecting higher price). These could be a sign of False Breakout.
NOTE: This post is for my reference/journal purposes only. Trade at your own risk.