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Falsebreakout

IT´S YET AGAIN ANOTHER FALSE BREAKOUT ON BITCOIN(Maybe the last)So China news came out, everyone feeling like a record rally since 2017 is set to change the whole bearish structure since the start of the summer... Guess what. Drawdown will go up for many of whom goes long before price begins to do higher lows & higher highs. People are obsessed saying fundamentals move the price of Bitcoin every day. FAR FROM THE TRUTH. It definitely moves altcoins along price levels, specially the ones linked to China like Tron, OmiseGo, etc... the releaseof the Chinese news impacts directly on the projects, same happens to them coins. But, according to Bitcoin´s price action, any gigantic news from the cryptoworld barely has any effect on it. At least not important for a day trader using timeframes from H1 to weekly. Are you fundamental crackheads really trying to say that the start of this last weekend rally on Bitcoin, where price bounced off from a 50.0 % retracement + "high priority" demand line + lower line of a falling wedge + HUGE bullish divergence on simple price oscillators is simply because China is set to develop a whole new Blockchain environment ? According to Wyckoff analysis, when composite operators begin a campaign to accumulate shares, contracts, etc., what happens inside consolidation periods or trading ranges cannot be analyzed without volume spread analysis. Here comes an updated H4 chart of BITFINEX:BTCUSD : Last weekend´s rally has been planned since the 24th September´s breakdown!! Conclusion. Only expect Bitcoin to be bullish again above $10,000 / $11,000, and even before reaching these price targets a sequence of easy-eyed higher highs + lower lows with specially growing volume on bull candles closing at its highs shall be mandatory fro longs. According to Elliott analysis, a new bullish cycle could be on its way soon. Just try not to jump in early and wait for corrections on low volume and bullsih price action confirmation at the end of these setups. Have a good week everybody, happy trading and be safe !! @Mikephicc
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Mikephicc_propT
1
ICE Long on Ascending Channel false support breakoutPros: - MACD and FI confirm the move by ticking higher with prices - Inverted Hammer + Hammer combo - Overall high lows near SMA 100. Shows bulls strong attempt to push back above sma 100 - Cons: Volume is decreasing as price increase in general near the sma100. (I ignored this because I am testing the theory to depend on FI instead of just pure volume) Overall Trade Grade: 66% (8/12) Uptrend: 2/3 MACD: 2/3 Force Index: 2/3 RSI: 2/3
NYSE:ICELong
by zukedu
USDCAD False Breakout? STRATEGY: False Breakout Strategy/Counter-Trend Long Term Trend Time Frame: 1D/4H Focus Time Frame: 1H Market Condition 1D: Short Term: Downtrend (based on 100ema) Long Term: Sideways Market Condition 1H: Short Term: Sideways Long Term: Uptrend (based on 100ema) Area of Value (AOV) Resistance: 1.32915 - 1.33813 Support: 1.31118-1.30205 Entry Trigger: 1H: Bearish Engulfing Entry Price (EP): 1.32216 Stop Loss (SL): 1.32426 Take Profit (TP): 1.31234 RRR: 4.68 Analysis: 1H: Price boke above minor resistance but immediately followed by bearish engulfing. Found support at descending trendline, however, price seems struggling reaching new high (pin bar was also formed rejecting higher price). These could be a sign of False Breakout. NOTE: This post is for my reference/journal purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Short
by jumpstartscript
Bitcoin: Stuck But Probability Still Favors The Bulls?Bitcoin is now poised to push into the 9Ks thanks to the development of the higher low formation around the 7830 area which coincides with a triple bottom as well. Formations and price structures are just another way of expressing probabilities and these patterns clearly favor higher prices at the moment. In this article I will highlight the elements that keep us in our swing trade long that we entered 3 weeks ago (while the general consensus among the "experts" has been bearish). Over the previous weeks, I have been writing about the high probability of false breakouts in this environment, particularly to the short side. And so far, I continue to be right. How do I know this? Is it through some magical combination of 15 oscillators on my chart? My perspective comes from having a clearly defined structure and purpose behind my evaluation and trading processes. As a swing trader, I am ONLY interested in information that provides clues relative to broader market movements. And knowing whether or not this particular market is in a trend on THIS time frame is the key to gauging REALISTIC expectations. (You will not gain this perspective from a 1 hour chart). Here are the elements that allow us to maintain our long from 8425. 1. Triple bottom formation around 7600 support. This minor support level has been in play for almost a month. It tells us one very important thing: Bitcoin IS NOT bearish. Weakness usually takes hold and follows through FAST, and that is NOT happening here. 2. Higher low formation established at 7830 area. Every time Bitcoin tries to push lower, the selling is being absorbed at slightly higher prices. This provides evidence that accumulating continues to take place while luring more shorts. 3. Large bullish candle off of support area. After a couple of inside bars, the appearance of a larger bullish candle is now in play. This further confirms that buyers are active around the 7600 to 7800 area. 4. NO TREND. The fact that Bitcoin cannot break below 7600 or above 8500 makes for a strong argument that this market is inside a range within a larger range (14K to 7600). Are we near the lower part of the range, or higher part? The answer points to where price is more likely to go from here. (That's why shorting break outs here is a very HIGH risk idea). 5. A break and close above 8500 should trigger another wave of short covering. Based on the broader location, and the technical developments, probability favors a larger magnitude short squeeze. This is where a positive news catalyst can come out of no where and catch unsuspecting 1 hour chart enthusiasts off guard. A move like this can lead to a test of the lower 9Ks over a multi week period. 6.Any bear arguments left? We do NOT short Bitcoin, but always evaluate the bearish perspective. The only thing that can negate the bullish argument is IF price lingers around this area for too long. Why? Just like when too many shorts get caught, too many longs can get lured the same way. When order flow becomes dramatically imbalanced, any little thing can trigger the herd running one way or the other. What is too long? 3 to 4 weeks on this time frame. I am bullish on Bitcoin and all of my articles favor the long side, BUT that doesn't mean I am always buying. I do have the ability to recognize when the bears are in control and simply step aside until conditions favor buying again. At the moment I do not know why anyone would be going short when context, structure and location are favoring the long side (even in this range bound environment). Price would have to break and close below 7600 for me to go back to a more neutral outlook. This is a game of probabilities and long term success has very little to do with being "right". In December of 2017, EVERYONE was right, while today most of those "experts" no longer participate. Why? Because timing any financial market has everything to do with how you manage RISK. Our swing trade strategy is right slightly more than 50% of the time at the moment, which is not stellar, but our performance is still positive. It is our defensive mindset and focus on preserving capital that generate positive results, NOT just winning trades. What good are profits if you are unable to keep them?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
21