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Falsebreakout

ICE Long on Ascending Channel false support breakoutPros: - MACD and FI confirm the move by ticking higher with prices - Inverted Hammer + Hammer combo - Overall high lows near SMA 100. Shows bulls strong attempt to push back above sma 100 - Cons: Volume is decreasing as price increase in general near the sma100. (I ignored this because I am testing the theory to depend on FI instead of just pure volume) Overall Trade Grade: 66% (8/12) Uptrend: 2/3 MACD: 2/3 Force Index: 2/3 RSI: 2/3
NYSE:ICELong
by zukedu
USDCAD False Breakout? STRATEGY: False Breakout Strategy/Counter-Trend Long Term Trend Time Frame: 1D/4H Focus Time Frame: 1H Market Condition 1D: Short Term: Downtrend (based on 100ema) Long Term: Sideways Market Condition 1H: Short Term: Sideways Long Term: Uptrend (based on 100ema) Area of Value (AOV) Resistance: 1.32915 - 1.33813 Support: 1.31118-1.30205 Entry Trigger: 1H: Bearish Engulfing Entry Price (EP): 1.32216 Stop Loss (SL): 1.32426 Take Profit (TP): 1.31234 RRR: 4.68 Analysis: 1H: Price boke above minor resistance but immediately followed by bearish engulfing. Found support at descending trendline, however, price seems struggling reaching new high (pin bar was also formed rejecting higher price). These could be a sign of False Breakout. NOTE: This post is for my reference/journal purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Short
by jumpstartscript
Bitcoin: Stuck But Probability Still Favors The Bulls?Bitcoin is now poised to push into the 9Ks thanks to the development of the higher low formation around the 7830 area which coincides with a triple bottom as well. Formations and price structures are just another way of expressing probabilities and these patterns clearly favor higher prices at the moment. In this article I will highlight the elements that keep us in our swing trade long that we entered 3 weeks ago (while the general consensus among the "experts" has been bearish). Over the previous weeks, I have been writing about the high probability of false breakouts in this environment, particularly to the short side. And so far, I continue to be right. How do I know this? Is it through some magical combination of 15 oscillators on my chart? My perspective comes from having a clearly defined structure and purpose behind my evaluation and trading processes. As a swing trader, I am ONLY interested in information that provides clues relative to broader market movements. And knowing whether or not this particular market is in a trend on THIS time frame is the key to gauging REALISTIC expectations. (You will not gain this perspective from a 1 hour chart). Here are the elements that allow us to maintain our long from 8425. 1. Triple bottom formation around 7600 support. This minor support level has been in play for almost a month. It tells us one very important thing: Bitcoin IS NOT bearish. Weakness usually takes hold and follows through FAST, and that is NOT happening here. 2. Higher low formation established at 7830 area. Every time Bitcoin tries to push lower, the selling is being absorbed at slightly higher prices. This provides evidence that accumulating continues to take place while luring more shorts. 3. Large bullish candle off of support area. After a couple of inside bars, the appearance of a larger bullish candle is now in play. This further confirms that buyers are active around the 7600 to 7800 area. 4. NO TREND. The fact that Bitcoin cannot break below 7600 or above 8500 makes for a strong argument that this market is inside a range within a larger range (14K to 7600). Are we near the lower part of the range, or higher part? The answer points to where price is more likely to go from here. (That's why shorting break outs here is a very HIGH risk idea). 5. A break and close above 8500 should trigger another wave of short covering. Based on the broader location, and the technical developments, probability favors a larger magnitude short squeeze. This is where a positive news catalyst can come out of no where and catch unsuspecting 1 hour chart enthusiasts off guard. A move like this can lead to a test of the lower 9Ks over a multi week period. 6.Any bear arguments left? We do NOT short Bitcoin, but always evaluate the bearish perspective. The only thing that can negate the bullish argument is IF price lingers around this area for too long. Why? Just like when too many shorts get caught, too many longs can get lured the same way. When order flow becomes dramatically imbalanced, any little thing can trigger the herd running one way or the other. What is too long? 3 to 4 weeks on this time frame. I am bullish on Bitcoin and all of my articles favor the long side, BUT that doesn't mean I am always buying. I do have the ability to recognize when the bears are in control and simply step aside until conditions favor buying again. At the moment I do not know why anyone would be going short when context, structure and location are favoring the long side (even in this range bound environment). Price would have to break and close below 7600 for me to go back to a more neutral outlook. This is a game of probabilities and long term success has very little to do with being "right". In December of 2017, EVERYONE was right, while today most of those "experts" no longer participate. Why? Because timing any financial market has everything to do with how you manage RISK. Our swing trade strategy is right slightly more than 50% of the time at the moment, which is not stellar, but our performance is still positive. It is our defensive mindset and focus on preserving capital that generate positive results, NOT just winning trades. What good are profits if you are unable to keep them?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
21
Bitcoin Bullish ProposalBitcoin Bullish Proposal After the recent price action I've decided to re-evaluate my analysis. By using Andrews Pitchfork, I found a channel price seems to respect. Currently, price is showing a reaction to the median, so if your a bull, this might be something to keep an eye on. If price can break through the median, I believe it will go to the next major resistance at around $6100. However! This price action has verified some of my previous analyses. I still think this is a false breakout. Price still needs to drop down to one of the MA's. Either the daily 200 or weekly 200. At which point it will consolidate and then finally gain enough momentum to rally into an official bull market. Trading Bitcoin can be risky. The price channel above could be useful but I will leave that to your judgement whether it's trade-able. Personally, I am a long term holder. If you are a long term holder as well, don't let the recent price FOMO you into buying at the top. If you are too antsy, wait for it to come down to the lower part of the channel before you buy. Or wait until we come back to the lower MA's.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by AnotherAnalyst