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Falsebreakout

EURUSD : Stoploss Hunters in ActionA simple analysis of trading psychology that was recently happened on EURUSD. 1. Price broke through the upper trendline, breakout players jumping in and start buying the pairs. 2. The big players(institutional, hedge funds, etc) let the market ran for a while to wait until a lot of bulls entered the market. 3. Most of novice traders are easy to read, so the big players can predict their entries and stoploss. In this case, most of the entry and stoploss triggers are probably set on these 2 lines. 4. Once the bullish momentum slowly built up, those big players started pouring sell orders in huge chunks, drowning all the retail traders who had taken buy position thinking the breakout would continue. 5. Price slowly going down even though most of traders were sure the breakout was a sign that price might go higher. Some novice might have thought that this bearish movement was just some retracement before price launch like a rocket. 6. The institutional traders, this time, managed to push price down until it started hitting the stoplosses of the retail traders. A stoploss of a long position equals as a sell order when triggered. These triggered stoploss, combined with new sellers that jumping in after seeing a strong selling pressures, can only fuel the bearish momentum even more, resulting in an even bigger selling pressure.
Education
by doubleBeefStew
In Bits and Pieces? Don't Watch! (BTC)Here again for another Doc breakdown, this time our beloved Bitcoin. On the 4h chart we see our ruler and fearless leader, BTC taking the charge from 7950s to 9400s. Holy canoli, thats almost a 20% jump!!! Then you start doing the mental math in your head: If I had just put 100 dollars of my hard earned USD(or USDT hehe) yesterday, I would have made 20 bucks! Pretty soon your quitting your day job, buying name brand toothpaste, and trading in your 20 year old rusty bike for a new sexy thing with 29 inch wheels... All because of that 20% jump in BTC. OKayyyy maybe I'm getting a little a head of myself(or a lot!), let's cut to the chase as why that's wrong. If you don't want to read anything else, read this: The jump we are seeing here is most likely a false breakout. Support and Resistance levels are at 8100s and 9800s respectively. I NEVER speak in certain terms because as technical analysts, we are like weathermen. BUT, just like weathermen, we should adjust to any new developments which come out. Let the Doctor diagnose this chart. First, we are STILL in a downwards trend (Red parallel channel), do not forget this. Second, yes we did see almost a 20% jump since yesterday's low, but peep the volume now and then(circled to the left in green). The volume with this increase is PUNY compared to before (which wasn't even a sustained reversal but certainly had more volume backing it then now!). Lastly, we are already seeing lower-highs on the next 4 hr candlestick. Also, check the 2hr chart below for fun. If you look at the candlesticks they are already starting to trend down again with waning buyer momentum. Check the MACD too, losing buyer momentum. I will continue to watch our fearless master of the crypto, BTC. Happy trading! -Dr.Don't Watch
Short
by DontWatchDoc
1
How to Spot False BreakoutsEverything is described on the chart. Another thing are bull traps. These happen when there is NO retest of resistance and volume may be lacking. You can always have an uptrend without an actual "breakout." Breakouts clarify STRONG uptrends that are likely to continue. Also, notice how when the volume peeked we formed a doji. This means that a lot of people came in and took profits because they knew the trend was weak. This one is very weak and will be shot down. Hope this helps!
NEducation
by Elijah_Trading
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Failed High Or Minor Retrace?BTCUSD Update: A push to a new high, but could not sustain the break out. This failed break is a bearish sign which still maintains the possibility of the C Wave to unfold which can take prices to the 5500 area or even the 5360s. Aren't new highs usually a bullish sign? They are, but in this case, not only is price structure presenting a possible double top, but can also be showing the B Wave that I wrote about in my previous BTC report. B Wave corrections are 3 leg waves that can actually take the market to a slightly new high, just like what has happened in this market, and then fall apart which is the C wave. Now keep in mind, I am estimating the near term direction based on the price structure that is in place at the MOMENT. Things change very fast in this market, and the ability to adapt quickly is what makes a good trader good, not getting stuck on an opinion and then complaining that my analysis didn't play out. For the less experienced, TA is not a weather report. This is why I always recommend learning how to make your own decisions, so that when the market changes, you can change with it, instead of fight it. The other factor that is prompting me to expect weakness from this point rather than strength is the area of price failure. The 6200 to 6400 zone is actually an extension based on the recent swing from 6206 to 5362. This zone is where false breakouts are more likely to occur, so if the market is going to break out, it needs to clear this zone, not run up into it, and then sag like it is now. I do not short these markets which I have explained previously, so the best I can do it use these signals as a reason to stay flat. A confirmation that more selling is likely would be a break of the 6k level which is not only psychological, but it is now the .382 of the recent bullish swing. Shorting this market can be rewarding, BUT as I keep writing, you must be on top of it, and you must have a solid plan so that you can recognize when the market is turning back up and get out quickly (definitely not a good idea for less experienced traders). If you are trading without a set of criteria to guide your decisions, then you should not be trading at all in my opinion. What about the higher low at 5632? I wrote about this scenario in my previous BTC report as well. This structure cannot be ignored and certainly challenges the short argument. It is possible that this level is a Wave 2 bottom which makes the current leg a possible Wave 3 of 5. This is where the market must choose. If price manages to stay above the 5960 area, and starts pushing highs, then that would be a confirmation which can take prices into the 6500 area. I don't know if this will happen, but any sharp rally from the current level will confirm this scenario. In summary, for those who are less experienced with TA, it is far from an exact science, and you must not expect a forecast to play out exactly. TA offers tools and methods to isolate potential scenarios from countless possibilities. From that point, we can then evaluate risk and reward and decide if the trade is worth taking in accordance with our plan and risk tolerance. In the case of this market, the risk is still too high to buy for ME and since I do not short, then all I can do is watch. I am interested in buying AFTER price has retested a support zone like the 5500 or 5350 areas (that is IF the market offers that opportunity). If price can reach the lower 5k supports, that would be a convenient area to complete this possible Wave 4, and that is where the lowest risk opportunity is to participate for a Wave 5 back up into the 6500s. Either way, this market will eventually line up with my criteria, and when it does, I will be prepared to act. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
42
False Breakout on EURCAD?!Hi guys, this is what i call "False Breakout". I've posted an analysis on this pair in the last days but i was unable to take that trade (fortunately) as explained there (see attachment). Nevertheless, i'm not in any correlated trade right now and i can indeed take this trade if the market will let me do that. The reason i think this could be a false breakout is due to the very strong reaction we've had after the break of that daily structure (yellow box). In the hourly chart (this one) i also see a small break of intra daily support: this gives me an edge and i'm placing my order with the blue line, with stops above the highs, and targets as shown. If you have any idea/question, feel free to comment below. Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Short
by Roker1
5
False Breakout on EURCADHi guys, this is what i call "False Breakout". I've posted an analysis on this pair in the last days but i was unable to take that trade (fortunately) as explained there (see attachment). Nevertheless, i'm not in any correlated trade right now and i can indeed take this trade if the market will let me do that. The reason i think this could be a false breakout is due to the very strong reaction we've had after the break of that daily structure (yellow box). In the hourly chart (this one) i also see a small break of intra daily support: this gives me an edge and i'm placing my order with the blue line, with stops above the highs, and targets as shown. If you have any idea/question, feel free to comment below. Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Short
by Roker1
USDJPY A Bullish Breakout To Finish Our Move Across the ChannelTalk about one heck of a false breakout. After pretending to break out of our sideways channel to the downside in early September, the USDJPY has made its way almost all the way back across and now i anticipate that we'll see a test of the 114-114.50's highs which we've tested twice before recently. Currently the pair is putting in an ascending triangle type of pattern which is a sign of a potential bullish breakout. We do have a price point that I'm concerned about a little bit higher around 113.50's but overall I wouldn't be surprised to see this pair finish it's move across the channel Akil
Long
by Akil_Stokes
21