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Falsebreakout

I smell a BULL TRAP.I felt uncomfortable when the candles move up and down in square wave in matter of minutes on H1 chart as if nobody is trading it. This movement shouldn't appear in a bullish market. Also, the volume for each daily candles are too low compare to panic selling during 2018-03-06 - 2018-03-17 and 2018-03-25 - 2018-04-01. The volume for each candle should be around 60K to 100K, but there's only 20K - 40K. The rally is up too much, too fast, too easy. I compare a slope for this rally among other uptrends. The closest one that I can find was during 2017-08-03 to 2017-08-19. They have higher volume than the false rally. I smell a BULL TRAP. A big one. I think it will land around 7500 back to the old long term support. With the red line resistance become support, we will have 2 fold up trend, and the real battle will begin. For those who buy the dips before 12th April (the big bounce). You are still safe (almost). Just don't panic sell it and cause price to go lower :wink :wink. For now, leave it alone don't do anything irrational. Always trade with the trend, not counter it. If you're still on the rally. Put your stop loss ready. You can ride it for a while, but be cautious.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by makemek
3
EURUSD : Stoploss Hunters in ActionA simple analysis of trading psychology that was recently happened on EURUSD. 1. Price broke through the upper trendline, breakout players jumping in and start buying the pairs. 2. The big players(institutional, hedge funds, etc) let the market ran for a while to wait until a lot of bulls entered the market. 3. Most of novice traders are easy to read, so the big players can predict their entries and stoploss. In this case, most of the entry and stoploss triggers are probably set on these 2 lines. 4. Once the bullish momentum slowly built up, those big players started pouring sell orders in huge chunks, drowning all the retail traders who had taken buy position thinking the breakout would continue. 5. Price slowly going down even though most of traders were sure the breakout was a sign that price might go higher. Some novice might have thought that this bearish movement was just some retracement before price launch like a rocket. 6. The institutional traders, this time, managed to push price down until it started hitting the stoplosses of the retail traders. A stoploss of a long position equals as a sell order when triggered. These triggered stoploss, combined with new sellers that jumping in after seeing a strong selling pressures, can only fuel the bearish momentum even more, resulting in an even bigger selling pressure.
Education
by doubleBeefStew
In Bits and Pieces? Don't Watch! (BTC)Here again for another Doc breakdown, this time our beloved Bitcoin. On the 4h chart we see our ruler and fearless leader, BTC taking the charge from 7950s to 9400s. Holy canoli, thats almost a 20% jump!!! Then you start doing the mental math in your head: If I had just put 100 dollars of my hard earned USD(or USDT hehe) yesterday, I would have made 20 bucks! Pretty soon your quitting your day job, buying name brand toothpaste, and trading in your 20 year old rusty bike for a new sexy thing with 29 inch wheels... All because of that 20% jump in BTC. OKayyyy maybe I'm getting a little a head of myself(or a lot!), let's cut to the chase as why that's wrong. If you don't want to read anything else, read this: The jump we are seeing here is most likely a false breakout. Support and Resistance levels are at 8100s and 9800s respectively. I NEVER speak in certain terms because as technical analysts, we are like weathermen. BUT, just like weathermen, we should adjust to any new developments which come out. Let the Doctor diagnose this chart. First, we are STILL in a downwards trend (Red parallel channel), do not forget this. Second, yes we did see almost a 20% jump since yesterday's low, but peep the volume now and then(circled to the left in green). The volume with this increase is PUNY compared to before (which wasn't even a sustained reversal but certainly had more volume backing it then now!). Lastly, we are already seeing lower-highs on the next 4 hr candlestick. Also, check the 2hr chart below for fun. If you look at the candlesticks they are already starting to trend down again with waning buyer momentum. Check the MACD too, losing buyer momentum. I will continue to watch our fearless master of the crypto, BTC. Happy trading! -Dr.Don't Watch
Short
by DontWatchDoc
1
How to Spot False BreakoutsEverything is described on the chart. Another thing are bull traps. These happen when there is NO retest of resistance and volume may be lacking. You can always have an uptrend without an actual "breakout." Breakouts clarify STRONG uptrends that are likely to continue. Also, notice how when the volume peeked we formed a doji. This means that a lot of people came in and took profits because they knew the trend was weak. This one is very weak and will be shot down. Hope this helps!
NEducation
by Elijah_Trading