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Falsebreakout

BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Failed High Or Minor Retrace?BTCUSD Update: A push to a new high, but could not sustain the break out. This failed break is a bearish sign which still maintains the possibility of the C Wave to unfold which can take prices to the 5500 area or even the 5360s. Aren't new highs usually a bullish sign? They are, but in this case, not only is price structure presenting a possible double top, but can also be showing the B Wave that I wrote about in my previous BTC report. B Wave corrections are 3 leg waves that can actually take the market to a slightly new high, just like what has happened in this market, and then fall apart which is the C wave. Now keep in mind, I am estimating the near term direction based on the price structure that is in place at the MOMENT. Things change very fast in this market, and the ability to adapt quickly is what makes a good trader good, not getting stuck on an opinion and then complaining that my analysis didn't play out. For the less experienced, TA is not a weather report. This is why I always recommend learning how to make your own decisions, so that when the market changes, you can change with it, instead of fight it. The other factor that is prompting me to expect weakness from this point rather than strength is the area of price failure. The 6200 to 6400 zone is actually an extension based on the recent swing from 6206 to 5362. This zone is where false breakouts are more likely to occur, so if the market is going to break out, it needs to clear this zone, not run up into it, and then sag like it is now. I do not short these markets which I have explained previously, so the best I can do it use these signals as a reason to stay flat. A confirmation that more selling is likely would be a break of the 6k level which is not only psychological, but it is now the .382 of the recent bullish swing. Shorting this market can be rewarding, BUT as I keep writing, you must be on top of it, and you must have a solid plan so that you can recognize when the market is turning back up and get out quickly (definitely not a good idea for less experienced traders). If you are trading without a set of criteria to guide your decisions, then you should not be trading at all in my opinion. What about the higher low at 5632? I wrote about this scenario in my previous BTC report as well. This structure cannot be ignored and certainly challenges the short argument. It is possible that this level is a Wave 2 bottom which makes the current leg a possible Wave 3 of 5. This is where the market must choose. If price manages to stay above the 5960 area, and starts pushing highs, then that would be a confirmation which can take prices into the 6500 area. I don't know if this will happen, but any sharp rally from the current level will confirm this scenario. In summary, for those who are less experienced with TA, it is far from an exact science, and you must not expect a forecast to play out exactly. TA offers tools and methods to isolate potential scenarios from countless possibilities. From that point, we can then evaluate risk and reward and decide if the trade is worth taking in accordance with our plan and risk tolerance. In the case of this market, the risk is still too high to buy for ME and since I do not short, then all I can do is watch. I am interested in buying AFTER price has retested a support zone like the 5500 or 5350 areas (that is IF the market offers that opportunity). If price can reach the lower 5k supports, that would be a convenient area to complete this possible Wave 4, and that is where the lowest risk opportunity is to participate for a Wave 5 back up into the 6500s. Either way, this market will eventually line up with my criteria, and when it does, I will be prepared to act. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
42
False Breakout on EURCAD?!Hi guys, this is what i call "False Breakout". I've posted an analysis on this pair in the last days but i was unable to take that trade (fortunately) as explained there (see attachment). Nevertheless, i'm not in any correlated trade right now and i can indeed take this trade if the market will let me do that. The reason i think this could be a false breakout is due to the very strong reaction we've had after the break of that daily structure (yellow box). In the hourly chart (this one) i also see a small break of intra daily support: this gives me an edge and i'm placing my order with the blue line, with stops above the highs, and targets as shown. If you have any idea/question, feel free to comment below. Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Short
by Roker1
5
False Breakout on EURCADHi guys, this is what i call "False Breakout". I've posted an analysis on this pair in the last days but i was unable to take that trade (fortunately) as explained there (see attachment). Nevertheless, i'm not in any correlated trade right now and i can indeed take this trade if the market will let me do that. The reason i think this could be a false breakout is due to the very strong reaction we've had after the break of that daily structure (yellow box). In the hourly chart (this one) i also see a small break of intra daily support: this gives me an edge and i'm placing my order with the blue line, with stops above the highs, and targets as shown. If you have any idea/question, feel free to comment below. Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Short
by Roker1
USDJPY A Bullish Breakout To Finish Our Move Across the ChannelTalk about one heck of a false breakout. After pretending to break out of our sideways channel to the downside in early September, the USDJPY has made its way almost all the way back across and now i anticipate that we'll see a test of the 114-114.50's highs which we've tested twice before recently. Currently the pair is putting in an ascending triangle type of pattern which is a sign of a potential bullish breakout. We do have a price point that I'm concerned about a little bit higher around 113.50's but overall I wouldn't be surprised to see this pair finish it's move across the channel Akil
Long
by Akil_Stokes
21
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Up Swing, Corrective Extension.ETHUSD Update: 334 resistance has been taken out, but there is no follow through and the current up swing is not performing as expected, prompting me to consider it an extension of the minor corrective wave. First let's get into what is going on with the levels. The minor resistance zone 324 to 334 (,618 of previous bear swing) has been slowly compromised. The problem is the lack of momentum. When price pushed above 334, it should have attracted more buyers and momentum should follow. Instead price went no where which is not a bullish sign. I am bullish in general, and I am still waiting for the pull back that I wrote about in previous reports. My plan is very simple: IF price retraces to the 306 to 295 support area (.618 of current bullish swing), and it can show a reversal pattern on a smaller time frame, then I will get back in. Keep in mind that I am flexible, and willing to get in sooner IF I see a compelling formation, but there is nothing to write about. If price just goes without me, I don't mind, it won't be the first time. I have lost more money because of the fear of missing out, than by missing out. Waiting is a more profitable strategy, but not a fun one. In terms of wave count, this market should be in the beginning of the Wave 3 of 5 again, BUT this leg is not acting like a Wave 3 at all. The 334 break should have been awe inspiring and instead was lackluster to put it nicely. Plus Wave 3's are never the shortest wave, and right now when I compare it to the subdegree Wave 1 structure, it is shorter. This behavior leads me to believe the current up swing is nothing more than part of the subdegree Wave 2 correction. Which means there is still potential for a retrace to the support zone that I am interested in. In summary, this market seems to go in spurts, and again is waiting its turn for the order flow. Price structure continues to be bullish, but the most recent leg up is more likely part of the corrective wave that this market has been in for a few days now. Keep in mind, a rally can appear out of nowhere, and I am okay with missing the move. I prefer to wait for a retrace into the 306 area and see if the market can meet my criteria in order for me to get back in. If I miss it, there will be more opportunities. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
46
Potential Short Position for GBP/JPY_Trade Plan 2017.06.26 Legend for price level, trend line, and rectangle: Dark Gray > Weekly Level Blue > Daily Level Red > H4 / H1 Level Green > M15 / M5 Level Yellow > M1 Level For the majority trend in D1 and H4, the current market bias is still down with price is holding slightly below MA200. However, in H1, price is forming Higher High and Higher Low formation since last Thursday. Currently, it is bouncing back within major H1 resistance area 142.135 - 142.554. Look for further price action and take relevant action accordingly. Trade Plan 1: To follow the majority of downtrend, these 3 conditions should be in place: 1. Price forms false break out of resistance area 142.135 - 142.554 and reverses back down to the downside 2. Price continue breaks down nearest uptrend line 3. Price bounces back up and starts to form Lower High If the above conditions are met, it means the downtrend is still intact and can consider to short the market. With Stop Loss 40 pips and Target Profit 140 pips, the potential trade offers 3.50 Reward-To-Risk Ratio.
Short
by arieg1985
Shark886 within 1H consolidation zoneReading the chart After the French election the pair surged higher until it hit a "major" dynamic resistance (reprojected a channel aligned at the 2016-10-06). Now it consolidates awaiting the big news from the UK. As a pattern trader I look for patterns within consolidation with potential to break out. If I loose, I reset and wait for a retest of the broken consolidation zone. Measured from the latest highest low I saw two things: a Shark886 pattern and a Gartley pattern. Both completion points creates a nice potential reversal zone (PRZ) of 3 pips at the most recent higher low. Both patterns share the same stoploss, so it is more attractive to take the entry of the Shark pattern for a better risk:reward ratio. Setup Shark886 Entry: 0.8668 Stoploss: 0.8642 Target 1: 0.8706 (1:1.46) Target 2: 0.8729 (1:2.35) Target 3: 0.8794 (1:4.85)
Long
by Mikoxl.
Another false breakout?-- I was not supposed to trade this pair but I forgot to cancel my orders due to high risk -- At exactly 2017.05.29 04:56 UTC +03:00, my sell limit for this pair -- right at the daily 200sma -- was triggered. Failure to remember I had an ongoing sell stop as well, it was triggered at 09:22 (few minutes from now). Considering that this pair has broken the daily support, possible descend may follow through. However, as seen on the previous days, false breakouts tend to occur within these levels. The possibility of forthcoming descend is 'supported' by the continuing weakening state of the Aussie Dollar -- weak economic data and weak commodity (such as copper) -- along with the recovery-state of the Crude Oil/Brent Oil. Since I'm already in the trade, I will hold my ongoing positions. I do, however, caution you to trade strong pairs v strong pairs, or pairs relating to Canadian Dollar. Better to trade Oil rather than Loonie.
Short
by bearvsbullmarket
False break above key resistance in major downtrendWe might be seing a transition from the bearish into a new bull trend long term. Buyers managed to push through resistance around 0,68800 but the selling back below the level was pretty strong so this might be a false break. If the buyers really were in control they should have managed to keep price above this level. IF and only if we get a weak pullback into the level I would be open for a potential false break setup and short trade. Since the structure is indicating a transition, first target should be kept fairly close (0.65000) in case we see new buying strength coming in around that area if there really is a transition. If the sellers are able to maintain control and 0,65000 folds, the logical second target would be around 0,62500. Only a new forceful push and close beyond 0,68800 would negate this bearish/false break scenario in my opinion.
Short
by Sascha_Gogolin
EURUSD: BULLISH FLAG PATTERN & DESCENDING TRIANGLE ON DAILY !!!Hello Traders, FX:EURUSD has been consolidating for the past 6 weeks, which resulted in Bullish Flag Pattern formation on the daily time frame . The upper portion of the flag pattern is a really strong resistance level since the market has been rejected from that level 9 times . Thus we need a really strong bullish breakout from this level in order for eurusd to go higher. I have listed the key high impact news events that are most likely to affect the FX:EURUSD early tomorrow morning on the chart above. We might get the strong upside breakout from one of these events by early tomorrow morning OR the events might also take us in the opposite direction, to the downside. Do pay very close attention to these events as we look to trade based on this bullish flag pattern. Keep in mind that since this is a daily time frame based setup; we need to see a daily break and close above the strong resistance level before entering into the long setup. You don’t want to be caught on the wrong side of the market, especially with the amount of new events coming up pretty soon. I have labelled 3 potential targets; initial target is a minor one since the trend line has not been tested yet. 1st & 2nd targets are major ones since flag pattern completes at the 1st target level and the 2nd target is a strong rising trend line, which has been tested at least 5 times. The stop would go just under the 50 day moving average (magenta color line) for the long setup. For the short setup, the stop would go above the upper portion of the descending triangle (yellow falling trend line). Do note that we also have formed a Bearish Descending Triangle within the bullish flag pattern. The breakout that we got earlier was a false breakout since we never got a valid retest of the broken level and thus the pattern would still be considered valid. So if we get a break and close below this triangle pattern then we might be able to enter into a short trade. KEY NOTE #1: ECB maintained its interest rate @ 0.05%. Need to pay attention to the press conference , which is coming up in 30 mins from now. Please feel free to AGREE or DISAGREE with this idea by leaving a comment below. Hit that thumbs up button (top left corner of this chart) if you like the idea. Thank you everyone for all the SUPPORT that you have given me so far, I truly appreciate it. Good luck everyone :) Follow me on Twitter as well: moneymaking2016
Long
by moneymaking
11
Holidays Season Trading - Increased volatility and riskI've been asked a lot about trading during Holidays Season. There are several things you need to be aware of if you intend to trade during Holidays Season that starts this week: 1. Low liquidity - Market is thin as banks, funds, institutions and pro traders take time off 2. Unexpected moves and increased intra-day volatility. Aggressive price reaction to minor events. 3. Frequent False Breaks - Especially in volatile pairs like $GBPNZD This $GBPNZD chart is a great example of how 300-400 pips range with 3 major structure zones held for more than 2 weeks. Notice the multiple False Breaks to all structure zones. In order to manage through the Holidays period here are 3 tips: 1. Use smaller positions size. 2. Use wider stop loss - Focus on Major structures and trend lines 3. Take profits on short term targets and move stop loss to BE. Tomer, The MarketZone This analysis is part of the Weekly Markets Analysis newsletters To read more interesting technical reviews for the week - goo.gl To subscribe to the newsletters - goo.gl Follow my blog - goo.gl Subscribe to my Youtube channel - goo.gl
by themarketzone
False Break to Head & Shoulders pattern? Waiting for breakoutThis oversold stock is trading inside a clear trading range for about a year: 2.8-.2.4 with bottoms near 2.2$ The Head & Shoulders pattern shown in the chart was triggered during August but the price ended up creating a False Break to the neck line (assumed to be the 2.4 support zone). If that's a False Break, we may expect $ZNGA to breakout on the other direction (meaning - up). It needs the support of the Market to breakout of the daily downtrend line and the 50 SMA line that comes with it. The initial signal should be a close above the fast SMA line (which hasn't happened yet!) If the price will close above 2.5 it may rally towards the 50 SMA line and the 200 SMA line as short term targets but if the price will breakout of the trend line, we can assume that eventually it will try and reach the top of the trading range near 2.8. The required stop loss here is about 20 cents right now (below 2.4$) but for those who seek longer term positions should place wider stop loss, below 2.2$. For the bears among you, a close below 2.4$ could trigger the H&S back again that may push the price below 2.2 towards 2.0-2.1$ to complete a bullish AB=CD pattern This analysis is part of the Weekly Markets Analysis newsletters To read more interesting technical reviews - goo.gl To subscribe to the newsletters - goo.gl
ZLong
by themarketzone