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Falsebreakout

AVAX : Fake Triangle Breakout ! AVAX has been forming a triangle pattern for an extended period. The price was respecting the triangle and making higher lows. Everyone was expecting a bullish breakout and continuation of the uptrend. However, the price reacted to the fall of Bitcoin and started to fall with it. The triangle pattern: The triangle pattern is a neutral pattern that can be either bullish or bearish. The price typically breaks out of the triangle in the direction of the previous trend. The fakeout: The price broke down below the lower trendline of the triangle on 1 April. The imbalance: There is a large imbalance of buy orders in the $44 zone. This imbalance suggests that the price is likely to bounce off this zone and continue to rise. Bullish targets: The first bullish target is the $60 level, which is the top of the triangle pattern. Further upside could see the price reach $70 or even higher.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
5
FXS Expanding T-Pattern Analysis: Potential Breakout and Grow?!🍣📈This analysis examines the expanding triangle pattern formation and assesses the potential for a breakout and subsequent price growth. 📈Expanding Triangle Pattern: An expanding triangle pattern has been identified, characterized by rising highs and falling lows. This pattern indicates a buildup of market indecision and uncertainty. 📉🔺Breakout and Resistance Levels: A breakout above the daily resistance level could signal a bullish trend reversal and potential for further price appreciation. The next daily resistance level would then become the target for the upward movement. 📊🔺RSI Confirmation and Volume: A break above the RSI trendline would provide additional confirmation of the bullish breakout. Increasing trading volume alongside the breakout would indicate strong momentum and support the upward trend. ⛔Important Considerations: False breakouts are a possibility with expanding triangle patterns, and traders should exercise caution. 🔽Additional technical indicators and market sentiment analysis can help validate the breakout and provide trade entry and exit signals. 🚫This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and employ sound risk management practices before trading.🚫
Long
by solinash1
4
GOLD → Liquidation of sellers could trigger a fall. Target 2100?FX:XAUUSD stops after a strong rally. A new ATH = 2195 is formed, after which the market starts the correction phase. The support 2175 is broken and the price tests 2150. There is a probability of continuation of decrease but after resistance retest. The fundamental background has been maintained since Tuesday. Yesterday we got CPI positive for the dollar, which temporarily strengthens the index and negatively affects the gold. After the 2175 breakout, the market gives us a move of almost 240 pips. Fundamentally, there is no important news today, so the market is influenced by yesterday's data. On H1, consolidation is forming below 2161. Buyers are trying to buy back the fall, but sellers do not let prices go above 2165. In this case, the most likely scenario may be a shakeout (false breakdown of 2165) and liquidation of sellers before a further decline to 2144 - 2100. Resistance levels: 2165, 2175 Support levels: 2144, 2125, 2100 The correction phase is most likely not over yet. The price may test the resistance before a further decline with a negative fundamental background TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! NCDEX:GOLD Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
13
Triangle Pattern Trading: A Trap for NewbiesThe triangle pattern is a popular chart pattern that is often used by technical analysts to identify potential breakout opportunities. However, traders should be aware that the triangle pattern can also be a trap for unsuspecting beginners. Why the Triangle Pattern is a Trap One of the reasons why the triangle pattern can be a trap is that it is a very subjective pattern. There are no hard and fast rules for identifying a triangle pattern, and what one trader might identify as a triangle pattern, another trader might not. Another reason why the triangle pattern can be a trap is that it is a very common pattern. This means that there are many opportunities for traders to trade this pattern, which can lead to overtrading. Overtrading is a common problem for beginners, and it can lead to significant losses. Smart Money Traders and the Triangle Pattern Smart money traders are aware of the fact that the triangle pattern can be a trap for beginners. They will often use this pattern to their advantage by creating false breakouts and trapping beginner traders into losing positions. Here are four examples of how smart money traders use the triangle pattern to trap beginners: NEO: formed a bullish triangle pattern. However, the price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout. RVN: Rformed a symmetrical triangle pattern. The price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout. DYDX: formed a descending triangle pattern. The price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout. TRX: formed a bullish triangle pattern. However, the price broke out of the pattern in a fake breakout and then reversed sharply, trapping many beginner traders who were buying the breakout. How to Avoid the Triangle Pattern Trap There are a few things that traders can do to avoid the triangle pattern trap: Be aware of the subjectivity of the pattern. There are no hard and fast rules for identifying a triangle pattern, so traders should be careful not to get too caught up in trying to identify this pattern. Don't overtrade. The triangle pattern is a very common pattern, which means that there are many opportunities to trade this pattern. Traders should be careful not to overtrade this pattern, as this can lead to significant losses. Be aware of smart money traders. Smart money traders will often use the triangle pattern to their advantage by creating false breakouts and trapping beginner traders into losing positions. Traders should be aware of this and be careful not to fall for these traps. Conclusion The triangle pattern can be a useful tool for identifying potential breakout opportunities. However, traders should be aware that this pattern can also be a trap. By understanding the reasons why the triangle pattern can be a trap, and by taking steps to avoid these traps, traders can protect themselves from significant losses.
Education
by Yaroslav_Krasko
4
🇬🇧 GBPUSD 🇺🇸 - Strong resistance and pressure from sellersGBPUSD may lose ground amid the weakness of the British market against the dollar. The dollar index is strengthening amid more positive news this week than analysts expected, moreover, another indicator of tight policy is the high interest rate in the US, which continues to be kept at the same level. Reasons for a possible fall 1) Downtrend 2) Weak fundamental background for GBP 3) Growth of the dollar index in the medium term 4) No potential for resistance breakout. High chance of a bounce or false breakout
Short
by AndeWave
2
BITCOIN → Retest 48K. Should we wait for resistance breakout?BINANCE:BTCUSD confidently consolidates above 42K, thus forming an intermediate bottom, after which the price tests the currently important resistance 48234, but does not reach it and forms a rebound. Idea: BTCUSD → Consolidation after the rally. What's next? Earlier we discussed the importance of the 42K level, which was tested by the flagman for a long time and at some point, when the market calmed down after a huge burst of selling, buyers successfully consolidate above the level, thus marking it as the strongest support at the moment, forming a bottom, strengthening to 44500 with the subsequent break of resistance and growth to the global resistance. This once again proves that the coin has huge interest, excellent fundamentals and technical analysis. Pic: Formation of intermediate resistance at 47281. The price is closing close to the level At the moment we are interested in the resistance 47281. And we are interested in it because this level was formed earlier on D1 and was also tested. Today the price reaches this level and forms a false breakout, but the most important thing is that the daily candlestick closes very close to the level. Based on this we can assume that the consolidation distribution is not over. Buyers are strong, but after the false breakout, from a technical point of view, a pullback is needed. The pullback could be directed towards 0.236 fibo, 45500, or 0.382 fibo. The signal that will indicate the market's readiness to break through resistance and growth will be a pre-breakout consolidation at 47281 and whether the retest, which will be slow (slow price approach to the level). Pic: Bullish trend in BTCUSD. The price is coming out of consolidation Prospects are excellent at the moment. There is no strong decline amid the rally since last fall. Price is moving from distribution to consolidation and further into distribution, which is a strong pattern indicating huge interest. Resistance levels: 47281, 48234, trend resistance Support levels: 0.236 fibo, 45500, 0.382 fibo The trend is bullish. Friday session closing indicates that the market is ready to continue the growth, but, the formed false breakdown may give a small correction before further growth CME:BTC1! AMEX:GBTC CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Regards R. Linda!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RLinda
63
GBPJPY → False breakdown and obvious bearish pressure FX:GBPJPY is forming a false break of the resistance at 188.3 and is forming a consolidation, within which it can be seen that the market is under pressure from sellers. On D1 we see the formation of the global range 188.3 - 179.9. The price is forging a retest of the resistance of the range in the format of a false breakdown. After that consolidation will be formed. So far it is difficult to call it a pre-breakdown consolidation, because on local timeframes the price movement is preparing for a price drop. Local highs are gradually decreasing and the probability of breaking through the base of consolidation - 187.38 level is increasing. In this case there is a probability of starting correction to 185.9, 184.3. Globally the market has no trend, because the price is in sideways movement, and locally it is still bullish, but when breaking through the base of 187.38, the market phase may change. Resistance levels: 188.3, 190 Support levels: 187.37 Indices of GBP, JPY currencies are standing still, GBP looks more optimistic, but on the background of geopolitics it gives prerequisites for correction, which can negatively affect the currency pair. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
14
JP Morgan Short off All Time HighWith the stock market making new All Time Highs fresh new opportunities for contrarian trades are going to be somewhat scarce. Thanks to a viewer on my Livestream (every Friday on Tradingview: 4pm EST UTC-5) I was made aware of a short setup I like on NYSE:JPM Context This price action is happening at a test of the past ATH set in November 2021. Last week the Earnings announcement pushed price intraday above the high only to close well below the key Resistance level of the former ATH. This is a false breakout signal or as I like to identify them as: Spikes. The Spike The Spike occurred on Earnings. I have found that false breakouts on earnings have a very high probability of signaling a reversal. The significance value (135% ATR) is within my rules. It took until the following week for price to actually pull back to the proper entry point of the Spike bar's Tenkan Sen value at 172.48. What these factors mean I go over during my Livestream. The Trade How I am expressing this trade is in a combination of short shares and Puts. In choosing my Put strike I look for where I see price going as a target via technical analysis. In this case it would be the 50% Retracement of the bullish trend around 155. For expiration I consider the prior bullish trend that got price up to the high I am reading as a false breakout to enter. I project the time that trend took, add an additional month as a time buffer, and then typically take that expiration. Unfortunately, an option expiring in March as this technique would suggest puts the expiration too close and just before earnings. A note about options and earnings: In the 4 weeks prior to earnings very typically a stock's options will experience a rise in IV (implied volatility). This rise in IV and the Greek Vega can increase the prices of all options often offsetting the value lost to theta time decay. This is a very advantageous condition if a trader is long single options. Therefor, I chose the April expirations to give myself the potential for the IV push. I will likely close the options the day before earnings regardless of where price may be. Options are a coin flip.
NYSE:JPMShort
by norok
1
BITCOIN → Why might the price drop to 34K before halving?BINANCE:BTCUSD has been rising for 124 days without any meaningful correction since September. Within a strongly bullish distribution, the price tested the strongest liquidity zone of 48K and made a false breakout, which is a strong sign for the start of a correction. Technically, BTC is in a stalemate situation, between two channels, more precisely in the range between 43K and 40K. The consolidation may last an indefinite amount of time, as fundamentally bitcoin is quite strong, and all the selling that is taking place is related to ETFs. The next halving is expected on April 7, 2024 . Statistically, the market goes into a significant correction phase before this phenomenon and there is a logic in this - to form more favorable positions before the strong rally that everyone is waiting for. At the moment, technically, the price is restrained by the resistance 43118 and the price has chances to rise, but for that the market will have to overcome this resistance and hold the level. From below we have the support at 40181, which is a risk and panic zone. When the price approaches this area, many buyers and sellers have adrenaline levels, as some are eager to open trades and others are afraid of reaching the stop-loss. Within the current situation, we have two scenarios: 1) Shortsqueeze in the format of a false breakout relative to 0.382 fibo, rise, breakout of 43118, consolidation above the level and subsequent rise to 50K, but at the moment, for the reasons I stated above, this scenario doesn't have much of a chance 2) Breakout of 0.382 fibo, the market gets rid of unnecessary passengers (knock out stoplosses), then - the key fibo area in the medium term - 0.618 fibo. Test of the area may occur in February - March and become a strong support before further growth after halving. Support levels: 40181 Resistance levels: 43118 Fundamentally the flagman is doing quite well, but technically there are reasons why the market should lower the price before the growth Regards R. Linda!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RLinda
54
GBPJPY → False breakdown on the background of distribution OANDA:GBPJPY is in the distribution phase after breaking the ascending triangle structure. Against the background of the November 2023 retest, there are not many chances to break 188.3 from the first time. The pound sterling both technically and fundamentally looks stronger than the Japanese yen. On the senior timeframe we see the formation of a sideways movement, which tells us about the neutrality of forces between buyers and sellers. In this case, it is acceptable to use a range trading strategy (trading from the range boundaries). After breaking through the ascending triangle structure an impulse (distribution) is formed, the price has not yet tested the resistance of 188.3, which plays an important role. There is a high chance that the market will show a false breakout and a small correction. The key point of the correction is a test of the rising support line. If the line is broken, the price may head towards the mentioned target. Resistance levels: 188.3, 188.66 Support levels: 185.9, 184.3 The most likely scenario is a false breakout followed by a correction to one of the above support lines, as the market currently has no potential for a resistance breakout. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
11
GBPUSD → Weak fundamental background will weaken the poundFX:GBPUSD is set for further declines as the TVC:DXY will continue its strength on the back of Friday's NFP, which will weaken the pound sterling. On d1 we see consolidation and retests of key liquidity areas. Since the opening of the session the market has been testing local areas and the pound is forming a small correction, most likely from the nearest resistance the decline may continue. On H4, the double top is forming a false break of the channel resistance and we understand the approximate resistance area. The bears are concentrated in the range of 1.2600 - 1.2700. On a weak negative backdrop, the pound may test the zones of interest and liquidity below 1.250 in the medium term. Within the range trading inside the ascending price channel, the emerging correction may lead us to trend support. Resistance levels: 1.257, 1.2600, 1.2615, MA-50 Support levels: 1.250, 1.245, 1.2386 I expect the end of the correction at the nearest resistance with the subsequent price drop to these areas on the background of weak fundamental background. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
43
GOLD → NFP ahead. Will the sell-off continue? OANDA:XAUUSD continues to form a local bearish channel after updating the high to 2150 and strong sell-offs to the current area. There is still a huge imbalance in the market and the price could go even lower to settle the situation. NFP could perfectly develop the expected scenario I have been telling you about since the sell-off. Expect the data at 13:30 GMT. The Initial Jobless Claims report was released yesterday with positive data for the dollar. This could be a hint that NFP will hit the planned 180K , maybe more , instead of the last 150K . More bullish data relative to expected data will shake up the market. The dollar may strengthen, which will have a positive impact on gold. Gold made a false breakout of 2038 resistance and bearish channel and continues to trade within the downside range. The target support levels are a potential target. But before the news, volatility will be very sluggish. The market is saving the potential for realization. Support levels: 2027, 2025, 2022, 2007 Resistance levels: 2033, 2035, 2038 News can be unpredictable, try to trade carefully before the news. We are expecting a more positive NFP , a rising dollar and gold falling to the previously mentioned targets, but anything can happen OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
45
GOLD → Market in range awaiting newsOANDA:XAUUSD is strengthening due to a slight correction in the TVC:DXY . The price is testing the local trend resistance area before the publication of Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT. The market is in a range as analysts and investors await the Initial Jobless Claims information to roughly understand the situation for tomorrow (Friday) as we approach the NFPs to be released on December 8 at 13:30 GMT. With the correlation between DXY and XAU, the situation is unstable right now. Going forward, the inverse correlation may change even more as there are targets at lower levels for gold. From a technical point of view, since we have a local bearish channel built on the background of strong sell-offs, I expect a false break of resistance and further decline to the previously mentioned targets. Support levels: 2022, 2010, 2007 Resistance levels: 2032, 2035, 2040 Situation may change due to fundamental factor, Unexpected news may change the situation dramatically, but temporarily. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
8
GOLD → The sell-off may continue. News ahead OANDA:XAUUSD sold off 6% from its high. The price has lost more than $130. This is the biggest drop since August 2020. At the moment a correction is forming, after which the fall will continue On d1, the dollar is strengthening in anticipation of positive news, while the Fed is silent and treading water. Gold is forming a huge false breakout and a candle with a huge shadow, the potential of this setup is that without the influence of the fundamental component, from a technical point of view, the price can fall to 1900-1800 (do not take this as a target, it is just a nuance) For the gold market, the liquidity and imbalance zones are below: 2022, 2012, 2007, 1900, 1987, 1984. The probability is quite high that the price will test most of these targets, it is dangerous to buy now, the market is still in a sell-off, which I warned you about earlier. Reason: fundamental, dollar strength, lack of volumes, global range, engulfment, moving averages cross, huge imbalance. Support levels: 2030, 2022, 2012 Resistance levels: 2035, 2040 I am waiting for the continuation of the fall after the retest of the resistance area. But! Strong news is published today and the market may be stormy, on the background of panic, the price may test the resistance areas before falling COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
20
💱 EURUSD - It's a stalemate. Falling or rising?A stalemate! News ahead: Prerequisites for the fall ↓: 1) False breakout and price consolidation below the channel resistance can send the price downward 2) A breakout of 0.382 Fibo may trigger a fall. 3) The price may reach the trend support as part of the correction 4) This decline may start on the background of bullish news in the US market. Prerequisites for growth ↑: 1) Price is rising and consolidating above 0.236 Fibo and above channel resistance 2) Weak news for the US market will send the pair up to 1.100.
Long
by AndeWave
3
GBPUSD → False breakdown leads to correction before retest FX:GBPUSD reaches the previously mentioned target of 1.2726, a false breakdown of the liquidity area is formed and apparently a correction will be formed before the retest. The TVC:DXY opens with a small counter-trend correction from the opening, which has a corresponding effect on the Forex market. In all probability, the index will test the previously broken resistance: 102.77, 103.06. The outlook is bearish. The pound sterlnigov will form a small correction after a false breakdown of resistance. The nearest support that can be tested before is in the area of 1.2640 - 1.2620. Today the market expects the publication of the US GDP, in November the index rose to 4.9% against 2.1 in the previous period. Analysts expect that the index may remain unchanged at 4.9. This is the broadest indicator of economic activity and the main indicator of the state of the economy, so this fundamental factor will have a medium and long-term impact on the market. Support levels: 1.2640, 1.2620, 1.2560 Resistance levels: 1.2726 I expect correction after a false breakdown. Retest of the support may form another bullish potential before further growth. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
4
GOLD → Correction after a false breakdown. US GDP aheadOANDA:XAUUSD reaches the previously mentioned 2050 area a bit faster than we expected. The rally is followed by a logical correction. But how long will the correction last? On D1 we see a counter-trend correction in TVC:DXY . The correction may last until the publication of GDP related news, which is published today at 15:30 GMT. Analysts are expecting the same level of gdp that was released in November. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and a key indicator of the health of the economy. Gold may test one of these liquidity areas before rising further. The potential and increased interest will continue to forimize the bullish trend, but the price cannot go up all the time. It is worth paying attention to the liquidity areas: 2037, 2035, 2033, 2029, as well as 0.382 fibo, 0.5 fibo. False breakdown of one of these areas and subsequent price consolidation above the level may end the correction. Resistance levels: 2038, 2042 Support levels: 2037, 2035, 0.382 fibo, 2033, 0.5 fibo. Expecting a correction. The price may head towards any of the mentioned zones before further growth. It is impossible to determine in advance where the price will stop, it will show only the reaction of the price to one of the levels. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
23
EURUSD → Correction before the news. What could happen?FX:EURUSD is forming a false breakout. This may be the reason for the formation of correction in the short term. The market is also expecting news today, which is worth paying attention to. We are interested in CDGO (MoM) today and the one that may affect the price in the short to medium term is Initial Jobless Claims. For the latter, analysts are expecting an improvement in the indications from 231K to 225K. If the actual data released at 13:30 GMT is higher than expected, the correction may end and the pair will start to strengthen. If the data will be lower than expected, the correction is likely to be a little bit delayed From the technical analysis point of view, an actual false breakdown could be the reason for the price decline to 1.0875 or to 0.382 or 0.5 fibo. But since we have a fairly strong fundamental basis for the medium term, the currency pair has the following areas as targets: 1.1033, 1.115, 1.127 Support levels: 1.0875, 0.382 fibo, 0.05 fibo Resistance levels: 1.0918 The correction may continue until the publication of news that may determine the short-medium term outlook. I expect growth after the test of local support areas. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
13
The Art of False Breakouts + RSI: COMPOUND! 📉🚀Trading is an intricate game of psychology, and understanding false breakouts can be the key to success. Let's delve into COMP, where false breakouts played a pivotal role in recent price action. 📉🚀 Closer look to Fakeout : Deconstructing False Breakouts False breakouts are like crafty illusions, luring traders into making premature decisions. COMP, a cryptocurrency known for its volatility, recently demonstrated how these maneuvers can shake the market. From False Bottom to False Top COMP first tricked traders with a false breakdown from the lower range, inducing panic. But as if by sleight of hand, it quickly shifted gears, delivering a false breakout from the upper range, catching many off guard. Trading Wisdom: The Lesson Here The case of COMP underscores the need for cautious trading, especially in volatile markets. Recognizing false breakouts can help you avoid unnecessary losses. Strategies involving stop-loss orders and thorough research can be your shield against these tricky moves. Conclusion: Mind the Illusions COMP's recent shenanigans emphasize the significance of identifying false breakouts. This knowledge can give traders a substantial advantage and help them navigate the turbulent waters of crypto trading. 📊 Trading Strategies | 🧠 Psychology | 📈 Price Action | 💡 Insights | 🌐 Cryptocurrency ❗See related ideas below❗ Share your thoughts in the comments! 💚📉💚
Education
by Yaroslav_Krasko
💱 NZDUSD - Head and shoulders. Bear potential NZDUSD is forming a false breakout and reversal pattern. There is an opportunity for a decline to 0.59000 TA on high timeframe: 1) False breakout of global range resistance 2) The market considers liquidity in the area of 0.59600 as a target TA on low timeframe: 1) A false breakdown in the "head and shoulders" format is formed 2) Price starts realization of the pattern after breaking its base 3) I am waiting for a fall to 0.5985 and 0.59600. Key support📉: 0.5985 Key resistance📈: 0.60000
Short
by AndeWave
11