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Falsebreakout

💱 EURUSD - It's a stalemate. Falling or rising?A stalemate! News ahead: Prerequisites for the fall ↓: 1) False breakout and price consolidation below the channel resistance can send the price downward 2) A breakout of 0.382 Fibo may trigger a fall. 3) The price may reach the trend support as part of the correction 4) This decline may start on the background of bullish news in the US market. Prerequisites for growth ↑: 1) Price is rising and consolidating above 0.236 Fibo and above channel resistance 2) Weak news for the US market will send the pair up to 1.100.
Long
by AndeWave
3
GBPUSD → False breakdown leads to correction before retest FX:GBPUSD reaches the previously mentioned target of 1.2726, a false breakdown of the liquidity area is formed and apparently a correction will be formed before the retest. The TVC:DXY opens with a small counter-trend correction from the opening, which has a corresponding effect on the Forex market. In all probability, the index will test the previously broken resistance: 102.77, 103.06. The outlook is bearish. The pound sterlnigov will form a small correction after a false breakdown of resistance. The nearest support that can be tested before is in the area of 1.2640 - 1.2620. Today the market expects the publication of the US GDP, in November the index rose to 4.9% against 2.1 in the previous period. Analysts expect that the index may remain unchanged at 4.9. This is the broadest indicator of economic activity and the main indicator of the state of the economy, so this fundamental factor will have a medium and long-term impact on the market. Support levels: 1.2640, 1.2620, 1.2560 Resistance levels: 1.2726 I expect correction after a false breakdown. Retest of the support may form another bullish potential before further growth. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
4
GOLD → Correction after a false breakdown. US GDP aheadOANDA:XAUUSD reaches the previously mentioned 2050 area a bit faster than we expected. The rally is followed by a logical correction. But how long will the correction last? On D1 we see a counter-trend correction in TVC:DXY . The correction may last until the publication of GDP related news, which is published today at 15:30 GMT. Analysts are expecting the same level of gdp that was released in November. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and a key indicator of the health of the economy. Gold may test one of these liquidity areas before rising further. The potential and increased interest will continue to forimize the bullish trend, but the price cannot go up all the time. It is worth paying attention to the liquidity areas: 2037, 2035, 2033, 2029, as well as 0.382 fibo, 0.5 fibo. False breakdown of one of these areas and subsequent price consolidation above the level may end the correction. Resistance levels: 2038, 2042 Support levels: 2037, 2035, 0.382 fibo, 2033, 0.5 fibo. Expecting a correction. The price may head towards any of the mentioned zones before further growth. It is impossible to determine in advance where the price will stop, it will show only the reaction of the price to one of the levels. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
23
EURUSD → Correction before the news. What could happen?FX:EURUSD is forming a false breakout. This may be the reason for the formation of correction in the short term. The market is also expecting news today, which is worth paying attention to. We are interested in CDGO (MoM) today and the one that may affect the price in the short to medium term is Initial Jobless Claims. For the latter, analysts are expecting an improvement in the indications from 231K to 225K. If the actual data released at 13:30 GMT is higher than expected, the correction may end and the pair will start to strengthen. If the data will be lower than expected, the correction is likely to be a little bit delayed From the technical analysis point of view, an actual false breakdown could be the reason for the price decline to 1.0875 or to 0.382 or 0.5 fibo. But since we have a fairly strong fundamental basis for the medium term, the currency pair has the following areas as targets: 1.1033, 1.115, 1.127 Support levels: 1.0875, 0.382 fibo, 0.05 fibo Resistance levels: 1.0918 The correction may continue until the publication of news that may determine the short-medium term outlook. I expect growth after the test of local support areas. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
13
The Art of False Breakouts + RSI: COMPOUND! 📉🚀Trading is an intricate game of psychology, and understanding false breakouts can be the key to success. Let's delve into COMP, where false breakouts played a pivotal role in recent price action. 📉🚀 Closer look to Fakeout : Deconstructing False Breakouts False breakouts are like crafty illusions, luring traders into making premature decisions. COMP, a cryptocurrency known for its volatility, recently demonstrated how these maneuvers can shake the market. From False Bottom to False Top COMP first tricked traders with a false breakdown from the lower range, inducing panic. But as if by sleight of hand, it quickly shifted gears, delivering a false breakout from the upper range, catching many off guard. Trading Wisdom: The Lesson Here The case of COMP underscores the need for cautious trading, especially in volatile markets. Recognizing false breakouts can help you avoid unnecessary losses. Strategies involving stop-loss orders and thorough research can be your shield against these tricky moves. Conclusion: Mind the Illusions COMP's recent shenanigans emphasize the significance of identifying false breakouts. This knowledge can give traders a substantial advantage and help them navigate the turbulent waters of crypto trading. 📊 Trading Strategies | 🧠 Psychology | 📈 Price Action | 💡 Insights | 🌐 Cryptocurrency ❗See related ideas below❗ Share your thoughts in the comments! 💚📉💚
Education
by Yaroslav_Krasko
💱 NZDUSD - Head and shoulders. Bear potential NZDUSD is forming a false breakout and reversal pattern. There is an opportunity for a decline to 0.59000 TA on high timeframe: 1) False breakout of global range resistance 2) The market considers liquidity in the area of 0.59600 as a target TA on low timeframe: 1) A false breakdown in the "head and shoulders" format is formed 2) Price starts realization of the pattern after breaking its base 3) I am waiting for a fall to 0.5985 and 0.59600. Key support📉: 0.5985 Key resistance📈: 0.60000
Short
by AndeWave
11
💱EURUSD - A correction signal is generatedEURUSD is forming a local false breakout. The base of the pattern "double bottom" is the level of 1.049 and we see a breakout (return) of this line. In the near future a correction may be formed after which the local growth will continue. But we should not forget - the global trend is bearish TA on the high timeframe: False breakout of resistance. If the price returns beyond 1.0536 a strong rebound will be formed The liquidity area interesting for the market appears - 1.06000 TA on the low timeframe: False breakout will form an imulse. A correction back to support may be formed, which will form an entry point Buy entry point could be 1.0490, 1.0499. Key support📉: 1.0490 Key resistance📈: 1.0560, 1.05900
Long
by AndeWave
9
🥇GOLD - The fall may continue, but after a small correction Gold reaches the specified level and forms a false breakout attempt. A rebound may be formed. But there is a chance of a continuation of the fall from the level of 1825. TA on the high timeframe: 1) Broken 0.5 fibo level. A strong fall is formed from the opening 2) The liquidity area that the price can test within the counter-trend correction is in the area of 1840-1850. TA on the low timeframe: 1) We have a strong downtrend 2) The price cannot fall all the time. If there is a false breakout of 1825 and the price forms consolidation above the level, there may be a rebound to local resistance levels. 3) In the medium term, the fall will continue, but after a probable correction. Key support📉: 1825 Key resistance📈: 1833, 1840, 1850
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AndeWave
13
GOLD → Correction from the liquidity zone. Trap OANDA:XAUUSD is testing the liquidity area I mentioned yesterday. The mentioned levels are not target levels, but only on the way to the target. Gold does not reach the lower boundary of the zone and the market maker forms a trap On the chart I have marked the liquidity area - quite a wide corridor and with a high probability the price should pass this zone, but at the same time the market maker should collect all the liquidity in this area. The obvious trap - correction to resistance - tells us that the decline will continue in the medium term. A candlestick pattern is forming on d1, which also hints to us about the continuation of further decline. The speed is quite high and there is no area on the way that could make resistance from the buyers and stop the market. The market is bearish, but even at such times the price can show a small counter-trend movement (correction) to rest before further movement in one direction or the other. I am still sticking with my target to 1812, 1807 and 1800. The moving averages are showing a strong trend Support levels: 1812, 1815.3 Resistance levels: 1828, 1834.4 I am still of the opinion that the price will continue its decline. There are no setups on the chart at the moment that would predict an immediate rise OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
26
BTCUSD → False breakdown inside the historical range BINANCE:BTCUSD continues to form a global ascending price channel. After the retest of one of the important support levels, a new bullish potential appears On the chart I have marked the range 31400 - 25400. Earlier we saw a correction to the support area and a false breakout of the level, which gives the market a new potential. The indicated range plays a key role for pricing. The boundaries of the range appeared back in the cryptozyme - from May to July, in times of strong decline, now these boundaries are confirmed. In fact, only the resistance of the specified range 31400 separates us from a strong further growth to 35000-40000. At the moment, the price is testing the 28500 area and forming a correction to 26700, the local correction wave at its end may give a reversal and growth to 31400 for another retest of the key resistance. From the fundamental point of view, a strong push for strengthening will be given by the SEC approval of BTC-ETF, but they are not in a hurry yet. The moving averages have recently formed a bearish signal, but within a consolidation formation, in which case the strength of the signal is not so obvious. The market is waiting for something strong and continues to consolidate. Support levels: 26700, 25400 Resistance levels: 28500, 30200, 31400 At the same time bitcoin feels more confident than the same SP500 ( AMEX:SPY ) , whose correlation has been quite strong lately. At the same time, on the background of strengthening of the TVC:DXY , the value of the asset is also growing COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHUSD TVC:DXY VANTAGE:SP500 TVC:SPX Regards R. Linda!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RLinda
11
GBPJPY → A false breakout leads to a retest of resistance FX:GBPJPY is forming a false breakdown of the support at 181.96. On the background of strengthening of the main currency we see active growth of the pair. A false breakout is formed on the chart with the subsequent price growth towards the key resistance, which is the lower boundary of the ascending price channel. If the price after the next retest can return to the framework of the uptrend, then in the medium term we can see the price growth. But, GBP growth may be a short-term correction on the background of weakening of the strict policy of the central bank. In such a case, a retest of the previously broken trend support will determine the entry point for further selling. Support levels: 181.96, 180.900 Resistance levels: trend support, 183.700. I expect a retest of the resistance, and the future pricing of the currency pair will depend on the market's further reaction to this level and GBP behavior. Regards R. Linda!
by RLinda
16
💱EURGBP - False breakdown. Double top EURGBP made an unsuccessful attempt to break through resistance on the background of weakening pound sterling. A false breakout in the double top format is forming. TA on the high timeframe: 1) False breakout of range resistance may bring the price back to support 2) The liquidity target area is around 0.85600. TA on the low timeframe: 1) A move back inside the range is forming. 2) Price may form a retest of 0.8659 resistance before further decline 3) False breakout in the double top format is quite a strong set-up. In the long term we should expect a fall to 0.86076 and then to 0.85650. Key support📉: 0.8630 Key resistance📈: 0.8660
Short
by AndeWave
14
🥇Gold reaches important support. Waiting for a reboundGold is reaching an important goal for us. We've been waiting for this. A test of the level of 1885.100 is being formed. On the background of distributive fall and strong sell-offs, a rebound may occur. TA on the high timeframe: 1) A huge pool of liquidity is formed below the level of 1885, most likely, a false breakout should occur before the rebound TA on the low timeframe: 1) The false breakout could be quick (a few 5-minute sections) or it could be a long one 2) Either way it should be expected. Price after a strong fall may enter a correction or consolidation phase 3) If a false breakout is formed (not yet started), the price will go under the level and will trade lower for some time, but after the growth and return above 1885, an active growth (buyback) will be formed Key support📉: 1885 Key resistance📈: 1900
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndeWave
23
💱USDCAD - Consolidation before further growth is formed USDCAD does not tend to fall after breaking the support at 1.3497. On the background of high timeframe the price retests the key level 1.33724 and forms a correction. Patterns for further growth appear within the correction TA on the high timeframe: 1) Price returns to 1.3502 2) A pre-breakout consolidation is forming near the level. 3) There is an important liquidity area ahead, above 1.35200, an impulse will be formed if this zone is broken through. TA on the low timeframe: 1) A consolidation within a symmetrical triangle is formed near the level of 1.3497 2) A retest of the pattern resistance and a retest of 1.3497 is formed 3) Chance is higher that the resistance will be broken, in this case a break of 1.3497 will form an impulse to 1.35668. Key support📉: 1.34500 Key resistance📈: 1.3497
Long
by AndeWave
16
GOLD → Negative fundamental background. Shakeout OANDA:XAUUSD surprised many people yesterday, but not us. On the background of the previous days analysis (technical + fundamental) we had an idea about further actions on the market In brief: Powell left the rate unchanged, but there were a lot of words that if the market remains aggressive, they will apply appropriate measures. And considering the fact that based on all the FOMC & FED actions against inflation, it is only getting stronger, the market can be considered aggressive, hence, the fundamental backdrop for gold is still negative, as the TVC:DXY will continue to rise. In terms of technical analysis, gold is forming a false breakout of the following liquidity zones: 1928, 1935, 19466 at the moment Powell's speech ends and the market actively sells off the entire rise. On D1 the price again forms a false breakout of trend resistance, preparing the market for further decline. A retest of MA-200 on H1 with a subsequent breakout and decline to 1915 - 1900 may be formed soon Support levels: 1922, 1915, 1902 Resistance levels: 1928 I expect a possible retest of the nearest resistance areas before a further fall against the negative fundamental background and the current bearish trend OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY TVC:BXY CAPITALCOM:SILVER OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
23
GOLD → The market is waiting for the FOMC. What to expect? OANDA:XAUUSD is reducing volatility amid expectations of FOMC data release. Earlier we saw an attempt to break the strong trend resistance, but now there are nuances appearing The Federal Reserve is not going to raise or lower rates (at the level of rumors). In any case, this is positive-neutral news for the dollar. That is, if the situation does not change, the negative background for the gold market will be confirmed, and an attempt to break the trend resistance will be a trap on the part of the market maker. A false breakout will increase the liquidity volume and may form a strong red impulse. At the moment the level of 1928 separates us from the fall. And in general, the resistance of 1938.9 is important for the market - the level has not been tested yet, and it may happen at the moment of reporting publication due to the increased volatility. But, if TVC:DXY happens to get a weak (negative) fundamental background, gold may confirm the breakout of trend resistance and head towards 1950. Price is trading inside the moving averages range, the market is giving us a false breakout of MA-50 Resistance levels: 1932, 1935, 1939 Support levels: 1928, 1922 The medium-term outlook for XAU depends partly on today's FOMC press release, which comes out at 18:00 GMT. Strong data for $ will negatively impact XAU pricing and vice versa Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
30
🥇GOLD - False breakdown forms a double top Gold on Friday forms a false breakdown of flat resistance (indicated on the chart). On Monday, the market forms a retest of the upper boundary and forms a false breakout again. TA on the high timeframe: 1) The market is still continuing to form a bearish trend 2) A retest of the liquidity area forms a false breakout, indicating buyer weakness at the moment. TA on the low timeframe: 1) Consolidation under resistance is forming. The market is preparing to fall 2) Within the flat we have the following targets: 1916.7 and 1907.6, which can be reached in the near future 3) Ahead is the local support at 1922 which may push the price away. At this point, the market may retest the resistance 4) We care about the dollar's reaction to the news. If the dollar starts to rise and overcomes the resistance, gold will head towards 1900. Key resistance📈: 1928.5 Key support📉: 1922, 1916 and 1907
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AndeWave
15
GOLD → Another false breakout on resistance retest OANDA:XAUUSD is weakening after a resistance retest that ends in a false resistance breakout. Yesterday, in Sunday's XAU idea, I talked about prioritizing a further drop as the dollar is poised to rise further and gold forms a false break of trend resistance Price is back under a strong descending resistance line. Consolidation below this line will form a strong bearish potential. The TVC:DXY forms a retest of 105.00, a fairly strong resistance that holds the price for a long time. This week there are many key news that will affect the market pricing and the $ value, which will give us a medium term outlook for both forex and gold. At the moment I expect a further decline in the price. The first important target is 1916.7, then 1903.8. The second option is important if the fundamental background does not change its direction. Resistance levels: 1928, 1926 Support levels: 1916, 1903 The market is testing the resistance for a breakout, but it is not ready yet, as the fundamental background for gold is still on the side of the bears OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
34
GOLD → The certainty of a strong market or the trap of MM?OANDA:XAUUSD is strengthening at the end of the week and closed above Monday's open. BUT! The dollar is also strengthening and on the chart we see several key elements forming and an important zone that can give us strong signals. In the coming week, the following news is worth paying attention to: 09.19 CPI (YoY) EUR 09.20 CPI (YoY) USD FOMC FED 09.21 Initial Jobless Claims FED 09.22 S&P Global Services PMI It is worth paying attention to the W1 dollar chart and the XAU 1D. A bearish wedge is forming on the chart, but a large candle was formed on Friday, within which gold has little chance of breaking through this area yes and in tandem with a rising dollar. There is a high chance of a correction beginning as we see a false break of a strong resistance zone on the hourly timeframe. The price is forming a fljt 1928 - 1903. The upper boundary is being tested and at the same time price is forming a false breakdown of a key liquidity and resistance area and most likely we may see a correction to 1916 or even 1903 on Monday. BUT! If the dollar, which is giving a strong signal to break resistance, fails to go up and starts a correction, then gold may well be able to break the above upper zone and start rising towards 1950, as the price is now looking more correct than expected on the back of TVC:DXY strengthening. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
20
GOLD → It's a tricky situation. High chance to FB ↘︎OANDA:XAUUSD is moving out of the downside range, but at the same time the DXY reverses and forms a retest of 105.00. The DXY fundamentals are better and there is a higher probability of further dollar gains than gold Note the small chart below (Dollar Index). An important level is marked and we see the price retesting the resistance within one week - a high chance for a breakout and further gains. Gold thus goes beyond the resistance, a correction is formed and if the price does not show a bullish impulse relative to the level of 1916, then we should expect gold to return to the boundaries of the descending range, which will be a false breakout. In this case, the cost of the metal will start to decline again. The market will pick up this maneuver and due to the received liquidity at the false breakout the price may show a strong bearish impulse. But! there is a possibility of a breakout. For this price needs to strengthen above 1916 and above 1919, only then gold can go to 1928. Support levels: 1916.7 Resistance levels: 1919.6 In priority I expect a false breakout of the channel resistance on H1 with the subsequent decline on the background of the dollar strengthening. But there is also a probability of confirmation of resistance breakout with further growth. We follow the price reaction to the mentioned zones. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
21
EURUSD → The market is forming limit resistanceFX:EURUSD is testing the resistance of the current trend channel, but cannot break this area. While the TVC:DXY is correcting, the currency pair is forming consolidation The dollar index is declining after the retest of 105.00, most likely the area of 104.00 will give a new impulse, therefore, the forex market will give a corresponding reaction. If the dollar strengthens, the euro will weaken. At the moment we see a retest of trend resistance, the market is forming a limit resistance area at 1.0765 and pushing the price away. The bears are showing their strength at the moment. An important support before the momentum formation is 1.0705, if this line is broken, the market may give a strong impulse. Resistance levels: 1.0765, upper boundary of the channel Support levels: 1.0705 I expect the currency pair to continue to decline, but if the dollar index breaks 104 and heads towards 103, eurusd may try to break the resistance. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
11