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Falsebreakout

🥇GOLD - Resistance Retest. Correction to 1972-1963Gold is testing a strong resistance area that could push the price back quite a bit. If the price shows strength against the bears and signals further upside, we will take advantage of it TA on the high timeframe: 1) Price is testing the global flat resistance. A rebound from the resistance is possible 2) The bullish trend is resuming 3) At the same time candlestick analysis suggests the continuation of growth TA on the low timeframe: 1) Price forms a retest of the uptrend resistance. 2) After a false breakdown, consolidation under the level is formed. 3) The closest support that price can aim for is 1972. This could then be trend support 4) Price returning to trend resistance or to 1984 for a retest will signal a breakout and a continuation up to 1999. Key support📉: 1972, 1963 Key resistance📈: 1980, 1984
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Gold-Tech
13
NZDUSD → Long retest. High chance of a false breakdown FX:NZDUSD is forming a retest of the resistance at 0.63809. We seem to have a bullish trend after breaking the downtrend, but there is a high probability of a false breakdown and correction. On the daily timeframe the price approached a strong resistance area. A retest of the 0.63800 level, formed in early May, is being formed after quite a lot of time and a large pool of liquidity has been formed above this area, which can prevent the price from going up from the first time. The scenario is as follows: from the resistance 0.63800 may be followed by a decline either to 0.63050, or a pullback less and a quick retest of the resistance, which will form a pre-breakdown consolidation and break the level. Countertrend trades should be opened with reduced risk. In the medium term, the price may continue to strengthen on the background of a weak dollar. Support levels: 0.6305 Resistance levels: 0.63800, 0.6515. I expect a correction in the near future and a slight decline to 0.236 or 0.382 fibo followed by a retest of resistance and an attempt to breakout. Regards R. Linda!
by RLinda
13
💱NZDUSD - Complex situation on a simple chart NZDUSD is forming a false breakout that could potentially send the price to the bottom. Price is testing key fibo areas and could give a bounce. TA on the high timeframe: 1) False break of 0.6305 forms bearish momentum 2) Price is aiming for the liquidity area of 0.62000 TA on the low timeframe: 1) A retest of 0.382 fibo is formed, which may form a correction to 0.6305, after which the price may again continue its fall 2) At the moment, 0.63328 may be an important target in terms of downward movement. 3) The trend is changing, but there has been no confirmation yet, a false breakout may be false Key resistance📈: 0.6305 Key support📉: 0.6232
Short
by Gold-Tech
6
💱USDCAD - False breakdown and flat formation is possibleUSDCAD formed a head and shoulders after a false breakdown of key resistance. It was at this point that the dollar began to weaken and led the currency pair to test the local bottom at 1.30900 TA on the high timeframe: 1) A false break of resistance sends the price to support at 1.3138 2) Since the forex market is flat more than 70% of the time, the price is likely to form a false break of support and start to strengthen TA on the low timeframe: 1) A false breakout is forming against the local support at 1.31179. A rebound to the resistance is possible 2) Fibo levels can also serve as a magnet for correction. 3) There are high chances of flat formation, the price may form a rebound before further fall. Key support📉: 1.31179 Key resistance📈: 1.31776
Long
by Gold-Tech
8
TSLA: False Breakout + Exhaustion Bar.• TSLA did a false breakout from the $200, and this key point is working as a resistance again today. The $200 is our most important key point, as I already mentioned in my previous analysis (link below this post, as usual); • Today’s movement is rejecting Friday’s candlestick, which was a powerful candle that broke the $200 resistance. This gives the impression of an Exhaustion Bar; • In order to avoid a sharper correction, TSLA would need to do a bullish reaction as soon as possible. Otherwise, it could drop all the way down to the $187 again; • The $187 is our key support, and only if TSLA loses it, the trend will reverse and become bearish again; • So far, TSLA has been doing higher highs/lows. It broke the previous top last Friday, and if TSLA finds a support above the $187 area, this will reinforce a bullish thesis; • In this scenario, TSLA would just keep trending, and the $217 would be its next target. It all depends on how it’ll react in the next couple of days; • For now, it appears TSLA triggered an Exhaustion Bar, and as the name suggests, this indicates exhaustion. I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analysis!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
8
AUDUSD - We Keep On Going?I've published an analysis about the head and shoulder last week, which was looking really good on paper. It broke the neck line but then, it came back right in, looking more like a fake out than an actual break. I've collected something from the the neckline break but, I had to close before TP because of the strong reversal that happened last friday. But anyway, that forced me to take back my technical analysis, and I've found more evidences in favor of a rebound of the aussie, conforting the fact that we might be facing a fakeout. Technically we're still in an uptrend. Even though we've been falling lately, the uptrend's structure remains intact, and we should treat it for what it is. The situation : 1) We're in an uptrend 2) We've experienced some weakness lately 3) Price just visited an imbalance area (look left) 4) Price is touching 2 major trendlines and seems like it's reacting to it 5) Last Daily candle is a bullish pinbar in an uptrend, last 2 H12 candles are making a bullish tweezer, last 3 H8 candles form a morning star This one is a tricky one because, if we forget the head and shoulder, it's a clear buy, with strong candlestick formations at a clear level, so a long would be valid, but in the other hand, the price has retraced right to the neckline level, which is extremely precise in this situation. Price could still potentially break down and both scenarios could play out. But the favor goes for the rebound on the trendline because it is with the trend. If price was to break both trenline, we'd have a confirmation for a trend change, even if it was to go in a range for a while, but as is, we're in a uptrend. I'll be watching this one until I get a clearer picture of what's going on. I'd like to have confirmation about whether or not price wants to stay under or above the neck line until I make a move Cheers everyone and safe trading!!!
by aemerydufoug
❌ False Breakout PatternsA breakout that failed to proceed past a level, leading to a "false" breakout of that level, is referred to as a "false breakout." One of the most essential price action trading patterns to learn is the false double bottom and double top patterns, as a false-break is frequently a very strong indicator that price may be changing direction or that a trend may soon resume. False breakouts occur in all market scenarios, including trending, consolidating, and counter-trending. Trading Tips To Respect: ✅False breakouts can happen in markets that are trending, range-bound, or going against the trend. Watch for them in all market conditions since they frequently provide insightful hints about the direction the market will take. ✅Trading against a trend can be challenging, but one of the "best" approaches is to watch for a clear false breakout signal from a significant support or resistance level, as in the last example above. ✅False breakouts provide us with a "window" into the "fight" between expert and amateur traders, allowing us to engage in trading alongside them. Trading will appear to you in a different light if you can learn to recognize and trade false breakout patterns. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
BTCUSDT is inside an ascending channel during consolidationBitcoin had a false breakout from the ascending channel at 18200$ area. The market grabbed new liquidity and creates a new breakout from the old low and channel. the price bounced from the new low until the 0.618 Fibonacci level, that level is crucial for the retracement. Thus the price started with the consolidation phase with a clear range, where the price created the ascending channel inside it and the market printed HH (higher High) and HL (Higher Low). Usually, it's an uptrend pattern. on the 17400$, Bitcoin has the supply area, where the market grabbed the liquidity to create a new breakout and new Low, for that reason we sign it as "Key Level". How to approach it? The price could create a new breakout from the consolidation channel and retest again the Supply area as resistance, in that case we are going to monitor it in order to apply Plancton's Rules ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <= 1h structure. Follow the Shrimp 🦐
by InkyGrip
22
Don't miss the greatest buying opportunity. When BTC bottom? Dear community and my faithful followers, if you want to make life-changing decisions and become super rich don't wait lower prices. It isn't financial advise but I don't want you to make the same mistakes I made some years ago and don't miss the best buying opportunities. Otherwise you will blame and slap yourselves couple months later not buying #BTC and #altcoin at current levels. As I mentioned many times in my previous analyses #BTC bottomed at 17.5K in June 2022 and the recent dump to 15.5K is a fake breakdown/ bear trap/ with double bottom like 2021 November top which was a bull trap/ fake breakout/ with double top. My worst case scenario is 13.7-14K but I expect new rally from this point. As you see on my chart, green rectangles are accumulation zones. Best buying opportunities happens when price moves inside green rectangle and 1st indicator flashes green dot penetrating in a green zone and 2d indicator flashes vertical green line and blue line appears in 25-30 zone. It happened 3 times in the whole BTC history. If you like my ideas, don't forget to like and follow me please. I will appreciate a lot.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ergal91
7
XAGUSD | New perspective Despite been on a long term bearish momentum since the beginning of the year, the breakout of the bearish trend line on the daily timeframe a couple of weeks ago opened up the possibility of a potential reversal pattern in the coming week(s). However, since the breakout of the trendline we have noticed the appearance of a consolidation phase just above the $21.000 zone which also reflects selling pressure in the last 2 weeks. Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by darcsherry
1
AMZN | Wave Projection | Upcoming Fakeout Head & ShouldersPrice action and chart pattern trading: > A possible ABC downtrend correction scenario with a upcoming fake breakout head & shoulders formation > Key dynamic resistance EMA50W and EMA160W > S Entry @ EMA50W and downtrend upper resistance zone > TP1 @ 0.786 fibo extension +35% > TP2 @ 1.0 fibo head & shoulders target +45% > SL @ B-wave head position -15% > Risk reward ratio: 2:1 and 3:1 > Indicator: RSI week bullish momentum supporting the uptrend resistance false breakout Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss, nothing 100%
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by dukeposh
AMD's False Breakout above Short-Term TrendlinePrimary Chart: Down Trendline from November 2021 to Present and Several Anchored VWAPs Recent False Breakout above Short-Term Trendline After hitting a new low on September 29, 2022, AMD had a brief a rally off the lows . This led to a brief break above a shorter down trendline from August 4, 2022 peaks (light blue down trendline) Now, AMD looks to have faked out the bulls and bottom pickers again. Before the close, AMD's price sunk all the way back to the trendline, perhaps just below depending on how exactly it is drawn, after seeming to push decisively above it. After hours it sunk well below that trendline again with preliminary earnings results that were well under expectations. Notice the daily candle from October 6, 2022. Some technicians call this a Pinocchio candle or bar. It has a long upper shadow that pushes above a key level, but the shadow being the only part of the candle above the key level by the close of the price bar. For another example for purposes of comparison, consider AMC's most recent short squeeze (which was smaller than many others in the series of short squeezes it has seen). Here, AMC formed a extremely large Pinocchio bar that effectively signaled the exhaustion and reversal that ensued. That one worked exactly as expected. A Pinocchio price bar shows up when the bar breaks temporarily above a level of resistance and then falls back below it. It also can appear when the bar breaks temporarily below a key support level, and then reclaims that level by the close of the bar. Essentially, a Pinocchio bar is a failed breakdown or failed breakout that occurs within a single price bar. Some basics of Pinocchio bars follow below for those unfamiliar with the term: Martin Pring, a technical expert, writes that these bars "give a false sense of what is really going on." Pinocchio bars tend to create bull or bear traps depending on the direction the long upper shadow points. Failed upside breakouts, such as the one shown here on AMD's chart, lock in unwary bulls with a loss by the close of the bar. Shorts similarly get stopped when intraday bars pierce well below support and then whipsaw back above that support by the close. In Martin Pring's technical-analysis reference books, he explains that the "false break" that develops is "indicative of exhaustion since the price cannot hold above the strong resistance reflected by the line ." In short, like the character Pinocchio's nose that grows when he lies, the price move beyond the resistance / support ends up being a false move, and the bigger the false move, the bigger the lie. Just because price is in a severe downtrend does not mean that prices can behave irrationally. How many sharp and powerful bear rallies have occurred so far in this market, especially in beaten down laggards? For example, price could go down and retest the lows and then rally up to high $70s. Or it could make new lows, and then rally hard back up to a key Fibonacci level, such as the .382 or .618. Until price can start exceeding major swing highs and lows, and its down trendline, it's not a great candidate for bull-trend trading or investing. Additional Comments and Considerations Not long ago, stocks like AMD and NVDA were some of the hottest technology stocks traded in the world. They had become veritable market leaders not just in their innovative technology products but also in price leadership. In terms of relative strength, AMD and NVDA both spent plenty of time at the forefront of one of the most powerful bull markets in history (funded by extra liquidity and easy-money policies of central banks) from 2020-2021. But then the cracks started to appear in what otherwise appeared to be some of the most formidable stocks on the planet. Major indices began to roll over not long afterwards. AMD has not gone unscathed. Its downtrend is not difficult to see with the clearly demarcated lower highs and lower lows. On the Primary Chart, note the orange down trendline that has contained price since November 2021 peaks. VWAPs confirm the view. The dark blue VWAP is anchored to the all-time high from November 30, 2021. It's hard to imagine that there was quite a lot of liquidity on that day, with a number of buyers paying that price at the very top, at $164.46. It can be a viable strategy to strategically buy stocks that have been hitting new 52-week highs showing extraordinary relative strength, but this time, buying at the all time high didn't work out so well for some. How many times have traders and investors started eagerly buying the dip in this bear? The chart tells the tale. Quite a few major swing lows, with candles having a nice long lower shadow, appear AMD's YTD chart. Each rally may have made a nice trade for nimble countertrend traders, but for investors hoping they caught the low of a pullback, or even better a multi-year low, disappointment ensued. AMD's days of heroic market leadership along with NVDA continue to be a distant memory as continues to fall to new lows. Should anyone be a knife catcher and hope to have a multi-bagger in 10 years? That's a question for your financial advisor or your own due diligence if you're fundamentally oriented. But from a technical perspective, a lot has to change with regard to the structure before it's safe to buy. Jesse Livermore had a fantastic adage that applies well to this situation, which was recently published by @InvestMate in an Editor's Pick here on TV: “Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.” Credit and thanks to @InvestMate for reminding everyone of these timeless truths to help in trading and understanding markets.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by SquishTrade
6
Will AMC's Short Squeeze Continue?Primary Chart 1 : AMC Price on the Daily Chart with Significant Fibonacci Levels Noted Will AMC's Short Squeeze Continue? Another short squeeze has successfully launched a few lucky traders into the stratosphere. Maybe more than a few if some take profits timely. AMC has risen about +183% above its low on May 12, 2022. In the past several days since July 27, 2022, it has risen about 99.06%. All signs point to another short squeeze similar to the prior ones. Even volume patterns look the same—albeit much smaller than prior volume patterns. The short squeeze could continue as it did in June 2021. Short squeezes don't necessarily stop because everyone things price has gone too high. This article does not take a position on whether AMC is destined to revisit this year's lows or make new all-time lows. And predicting the behavior of numerous market participants—the retail buyers looking for a squeeze and the short sellers looking for a flush—and analyzing how such behavior is affected by other macro issues such as interest rates and liquidity in light of tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy would be a futile endeavor. As a result, one may look to technical analysis to try to make a prediction about the probabilities. Note on Primary Chart 1 how the price patterns at the prior short squeeze on March 29, 2022, and today's short squeeze, look nearly identical. Compare the two yellow ellipses on Primary Chart 1 above. Both peak candlesticks have an extremely tall bullish candle preceding them. And both sport a long upper shadow (or wick). Some technicians call this a Pinocchio candle or bar. This type of price bar shows up when the bar breaks temporarily above a level of resistance and then falls back below it. It also can appear when the bar breaks temporarily below a key support level, and then reclaims that level by the close of the bar. Some basics of Pinocchio bars follow below for those unfamiliar with the term: Martin Pring, a technical expert, writes that these bars "give a false sense of what is really going on." Pinocchio bars tend to create bull or bear traps depending on the direction the long upper shadow points. Upside breakouts, such as here with AMC, lock in unwary longs with a loss by the close of the bar. Shorts similarly get stopped when intraday bars pierce well below support and then whipsaw back above that support by the close. In Martin Pring's books, he further explains that the "false break" that develops is " indicative of exhaustion since the price cannot hold above the strong resistance reflected by the line ." In short, like the character Pinocchio's nose that grows when he lies, the price move beyond the resistance / support ends up being a false move, and the bigger the false move, the bigger the lie. In summary, the Pinocchio bar with a long upper shadow, especially when viewed along side other similar bars over the past year, imply that price has likely exhausted to the upside for the time being. Further support for exhaustion is evident. Note how the Fibonacci projection levels have provided strong support and resistance repeatedly since the all-time high in June 2021. Primary Chart 1 labels those levels and points out their operation as strong resistance on multiple occasions. The last two rally attempts occurred in December 2021 and March 2022. Both these rally attempts failed at the .50 Fibonacci projection (green line shown on Primary Chart 1). For the current rally, the price bars with the long upper shadow pierces the next Fibonacci level of importance in the sequence: the .618 level which lies just below the .50 level . This also supports at least a temporary pullback or consolidation. Additional evidence supports exhaustion. Note below how AMC's price has now risen to +5 ATR on the daily and its candle has a long upper shadow. Moves to +3 ATR are rarely sustainable for long much less +5ATR. In the chart below, note the location of price relative to the +3 ATR Keltner Channel. The +3 ATR KC is the outermost band on the upper edge of the KC bands. Supplementary Chart 2.1: AMC's price well above +3 ATR band on the Daily Chart using Keltner Channels Supplementary Chart 2.2: AMC's price relative to the +5 ATR band on the daily chart using Keltner Channels Finally, note the declining volume on each successive short squeeze. This suggests that the buying pressure has waned as short squeezes have continued following each major decline. Supplementary Chart 3.1: AMC's price well above +3 ATR band on the Daily Chart using Keltner Channels But the persistence of the buyers squeezing the shorts should be recognized as something that is a new force in markets since what occurred in 2021. Price could indeed push higher if enough collective buying force continues in stock and options markets sufficient to overwhelm all supply. Price can do a lot of things no one expects. But based on technical analysis alone, however, price likely falls lower from here. This author makes no argument that new lows will be reached. It will be important to watch the pullback to answer that question. A reasonable price target would seem to be 16.50 near the .618 retracement of the rally from the May 12, 2022, low to the August 8, 2022 high.
Editors' picks
NYSE:AMC
by SquishTrade
38
EUR/NZD for shortThis is the eur/nzd 1hr chart; as you can see we had an ascending channel, which was broken to the upside, and theoretically, if we see a breakout to the upside during an ascending channel, there's a good chance it could be a false breakout (although there are cases when it's not a false breakout, of course). So here things are like this: the price broke the channel to the upside and after a few sessions it closed again inside the channel, and here we also have the 1st lower low, so it is logical to look for some shallow retracement and go short. However, anything can happen, so protect yourself as soon as possible. Remember we have the ECB meeting next week so try not to fall into the speculation traps.
Short
by merjemascerija