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Falsebreakout

OXY, A TRUE example of FALSE break out !Regardless of what legendary investors (Like Warren Buffett ) or famous traders do, we always should trade our own strategy. OXY was fighting with a strong static resistance and finally lost the battle. We have 9 hits to this static line which shows how powerful it is. False break outs are among the most common traps in trading . Although the concept is very simple , many traders fall simply into the trap just because of lack of patience or weak risk management strategy. Please keep this words in mind and I promise you will be the winner in long term : " Be sure about a break out before jumping into a trade " . True break outs have three conditions: 1. Break out should be done by a strong high volume bullish candle and at least 50 % of body of such candle should be placed above the valid resistance. 2. A pull back to broken resistance and rotation is necessary to be sure about true break out. Please note sometime we may not see a complete pull back ( if there is a support before broken resistance) but who can accept the risk of false break out? 3. Continuation of movement in direction of break out. Occidental Petroleum fulfilled first condition in it's last attempt ( if we close our eyes to volume) with a gap up bullish candle above the resistance. It made also a pull back but no rotation and continuation of the upside movement came after that. It means we had a false break out. I investigated false break outs of a dynamic resistance in my previous publication on BTC and here I showed an example of false break out of static resistance. Regardless of type of resistance (dynamic or static) , concept is the same. True break out setup has been shown on the chart. As you see the concept is very simple. Please keep this concept in mind and believe me you won't regret. Wish you huge profits and good luck.
NYSE:OXYEducation
by SaeedSajedi
5
What are True and False Break Outs ?False Break outs impose considerable loss to traders. How to recognize a false break out? To recognize a false break out we should first learn what is a true break out? In fact,simply, Every break out which is not a true one is a false break out. BTC in it's recent movements shows two beautiful example of false break outs. As shown on the chart, we have a dynamic resistance line with three clear rejections and two false break outs. It means before 1st break out which was 4th rejection BTC had a chance to break out the resistance but it never succeeded. Why? A true break out has three important conditions : 1. first of all, Break out should be done by a strong high volume bullish candle and at least 50 % of body of such candle should be placed above the valid resistance. 2. A pull back to broken resistance and rotation is necessary to be sure about true break out. Please note sometime we may not see a complete pull back ( if there is a support before broken resistance) but who can accept the risk of false break out? 3. Continuation of movement in direction of break out. As we can see, BTC in it's 4th and 5th attempts to break the line was unsuccessful even to fulfill the first condition. Also shown on the chart is what could have been a true break out. Although simple in concept, false break outs are headaches for some traders. What makes traders to fall in the trap of false break outs is not because of complexity of the concept ( As it is very simple ). It is about controlling emotions and psychology. Good luck everybody.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by SaeedSajedi
6
BTCUSD, Daily, Continuation of the downtrend?Due to a similar formation that has already occurred twice, I predict a breakout from the channel and further drops, maybe to the retracement of 13850, where there is a demand and a fibo retracement. Even stronger support levels are on the retracement of 10850 and on retracements lower than 9000 (also fibo levels). This construction is based on a channel, a false breakout, and a bounce of the downtrend line. Because the price bounced off the trendline triple (I count only main bounces), I think that it is the last or penultimate bounce. We are still in a downtrend. Following that, I would forecast consolidation-accumulation. As my forecast is quite complex, chances are it will come true according to the arrows I have drawn. It is possible, for example, that we will have a head and shoulders pattern (or as I call it, a Dick pattern) + a rebound from the downtrend line, not from the bottom channel. DISCLAIMER It is not financial advice. It is only my own view of the market.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MichaelFX_ICT
False Breakout Short Selling Natural GasNatural Gas is in a Double Top very extended retracement formation and at the very top, it has formed a False Breakout pattern. The last green candle is a Topping Tail / Shooting Star reversal candlestick. All information is on the Chart. Entry: 9 Stop: 9.7 Take Profit: 7 Successful Investing is the ability to manage risk and foresee possible opportunities in the near or further future, prepare ourselves and take the risk when the opportunity presents itself. Invest safe and Happy trading. As always, appreciate the like, comments and share.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by ppatrading101
MOO running out of grassHey everybody, I've been following MOO as of late as I'm currently short DE and waiting on an entry for CAT short as well; I've noticed that it has essentially been forming a Wyckoff-style distribution pattern, and is one of the few sectors in this market that isn't brutally beaten down at this point. I'm currently expecting a countertrend rally upwards in this name, but I fully expect the rally to be faded and for this sector to enter a brutal markdown phase that will take it to pre-pandemic levels well before 2023. The question in my eyes is when and where will the rally be faded? My current ideal entry short on this name rests around $92/share
AMEX:MOO
by MichaelEugen1
1
DOTUSDT is going to create a false breakout?The price is creating a triangle below the 4h resistance where the market created a supply zone. If you look on the left you can see how the price got rejections from that area. How to approach it? IF the price is going to get new liquidity with a false breakout and get a new rejection, According to Plancton's strategy , we can set a nice order ––––– Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Short
by InkyGrip
9
ADA is this a breakout?ADA in downtrend for last 190 days and it seems it is breaking out of the descending channel. We had expected a pump from 0.8 which was the untested low. Analysis The blue line is a trendline which is acting as great resistance and its from ATH The green line acting as support line The red line is the line which act as breakout resistance History shows us there is 2 previous false breakout on ADA Also 21 and 100 weekly moving average are also acting is resistance. As it seems there are so many resistance factor on the chart so its safe to assume this another fake breakout and lets wait for a successful retest of the trendline.
by BlackBirdTrading
13
AUDCAD | Perspective for the new weekAUDCAD has straddled a 6.8% price corridor since the start of the year, giving us, at first sight, a bearish bias considering the bearish trendline identified on the daily timeframe. However, the appearance of a reversal structure and breakout out of structure signal on the 4H timeframe; the possibility that price might break out of the bearish trend line the second time to set the tone for a bullish momentum in the coming week. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
SPX: Complete trend analysis (H, D and W charts).Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today! First, in the 1h chart, it lost the support level we mentioned yesterday (4,200), and it dropped a little bit more after that. However, we see some reaction right now, and if the index closes above the 4,200, the market might understand it as a false breakout from a previous support, making this a possible bear trap. This would be a good bullish sign, but we don’t see any clear bullish reversal structure yet. We are still doing lower highs/lows, and the 21 ema is pointing down, and to me, we must see more confirmation in order to call it a buy again. If the index is about to reverse, now is the best time for it: In the daily chart, we see that the index is trying to stabilize at a very important support level around the 4,167, which supported the price at least 5 times in the past. What’s more, this support level could be the neckline of a Head & Shoulders chart pattern in the weekly chart: This tells us that this the last chance the SPX will have to react, otherwise, it’ll engage a bear trend for good. It is important to notice that it is dropping in the last 4 weeks, but the volume was below the average, and this gives me the impression that the market is dropping because people are just afraid and aren’t buying, instead of actually selling (or shorting) at this level. The moment couldn’t be more complex and crucial. Regardless of what the SPX will do next, it seems we’ll have our answer soon, in the next few days. I’ll keep you guys updated on this every day, so, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
ETHUSDT had a false breakoutThe price is creating a pennant below the daily resistance and the price had a false breakout. On the daily timeframe, the price tested the 0.618 Fibonacci level with a nice candle. As you can see on the left the price created a W pattern and now the price is trying to have a breakout from the neckline. How to approach? The price needs to have a breakout from the weekly resistance and retest the daily resistance as support on 3200$, According to Plancton's strategy , we can set a nice order ––––– Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Long
by InkyGrip
13