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Falsebreakout

USDCAD | Perspective for the new weekMy last speculation saw the price move over 150pips in our direction before the bulls took over ( see link below for reference purposes). Since breaking above the $1.25000 level in July 2021, I am labelling this level to be a very strong demand zone for the Greenback considering that the obvious that it has held price "supported' in the last couple of months. Since the value of the Loonie is directly connected to the oil situation. It is important to take into consideration that oil inventories are currently down from what they used to be prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. Coupled with the Hurricane Ida situation, there is more supply than demand which could have a negative impact on the Loonie in the coming week(s). Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. Since hitting a peak @ $1.29500 on the 20th of August 2021, the price of USD have tumbled drastically and it is finally at our Demand zone. ii. The visual representation of a line drawn under pivot lows reveals the prevailing direction of price since June 2021. However, a sudden Breakdown of this Trendline (whatever way you draw your line) during last week trading session cast some doubt on the Bullish tendency on this pair. iii. At this juncture it is indeed appropriate that we remain patient and observe how price reacts to the Major Demand zone @ $1.25000/1.24200 area for confirmations. iv. To support my Bullish expectation on this pair, I shall be looking for rejections or engulfing candles off of the Key level @ $1.25000 (above key level - safe haven) in the coming week(s). v. Should price drop below Key level, then this will make the Breakdown of Bullish Trendline valid. Hence, a retest shall give me no choice but to switch bias in support of the Bears... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 250 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 3 to 7days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
AAPL: Key Points and targets for the short/mid-term.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AAPL is doing today! First, the trend is bullish, and the 21 ema is going up along with the price, and everything seems fine with AAPL. But we must keep an eye on some important key points, as they will dictate how AAPL will behave in the next few days, if it’ll keep climbing or if it’ll drop. The support at $ 149.10 is the first key point here. This point is the previous bottom, and keep in mind that AAPL just did a lower high (red arrow), and if we do a lower low, then the bullish bias will get weaker. The 21 ema will point down, and this might be the beginning of a bearish movement. The 21 ema in the daily chart is a good support level for us to work with right now , as AAPL will probably retest it if the bullish bias gets weaker. What’s more, we’ll be back to the congestion area between the two black lines in the daily chart, indicating that AAPL made a false breakout from it recently. This is frustrating, but still not enough to reverse the trend, just to make it weaker and create a pullback. Let’s see how it’ll behave in the next few days. If you are still here, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. Have a good day.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
FCPO Trading Strategy for False Breakout and Valid BreakoutPrice downtrend continuation when new day price open inside the previous trading range. Valid breakout = trend continuation Therefore, we use 1min TF to look for entry. 1. Break market structure. 2. EMA 14,50,200 trend. 3. Stochastic 4. Reverse-retest 5. Stoploss 6. TP False breakout = reversal/rejection Use 15min to find entry 1. Entry after 2nd CS close back inside the zone 2. Stoploss 2xATR @1min chart. 3. TP opposite Support / Resistance.
MYX:FCPO1!Education
by ArifHasbollah
NIO: What it needs to fly again?Hello traders and investors! Let’s take a look at NIO today! Since it reported earnings, NIO has been in a bearish momentum, and it seems nothing will reverse it. The last support was at $ 38.66, and NIO lost it, but what does this means? We are still far from May’s bottom at $ 30, and since it dropped that sharply, it has good chances of bouncing back up, but so far, we have no bullish structure in the 1h chart. On the bright side, we are near the support level, and it seems NIO didn’t lost it completely, as we see early signs of reaction. Let’s see the daily chart for more clues: We have a bullish candlestick pattern today, which is a start for a possible reversal, and since we are near the previous support level, now is the best time for NIO react. If we close above the $ 38.66 again, it will be a false breakout from the support level, and this will be very frustrating for the bears, as they will be stopped out. Since we hit the support, the volume increased, and if we see a reaction, the 21 ema will be the target for us. Then we’ll see if it’ll be a Dead Cat Bounce or the beginning of a true reversal. But I agree that today’s reaction is not the best so far, and we must wait for more information. The situation is very delicate, and how NIO will react in this support will dictate the next big movement. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. Have a good day.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
6
FCPO Identify Fake Breakout and How to Trade it?When the price is near the SnR it is where get it will get tricky...either the price want to continue the trend or reverse? The false breakout strategy : 1. Timeframe 15min 2. Identify strong valid SnR 3. Draw the zone by pick the wick and the neck. 4. If price breakout and 2nd CS close inside the zone, it is a false breakout and entry position after 2nd CS close. 5. TP for the false breakout can be the opposite SnR. Valid breakout strategy: Trend continuation 1. Use 15min and 1min chart for confirmation.
MYX:FCPO1!Education
by ArifHasbollah
What Is a Failed Break?A failed break (false breakout) occurs when a price moves through an identified level of support or resistance but does not have enough momentum to maintain its direction. Failed breaks may also signal traders to enter a trade in the opposite direction of the attempted breakout. Since the breakout attempt failed, the price could head the other direction. A throwback is when the price retraces back toward the resistance or support level just broken. A throwback is not a failed breakout. How to detect failed breaks? A failed breakout reveals that there was not enough buying interest to keep pushing the price above resistance or below support. If a security does not see strong volume and substantial price moves supporting the breakout direction, the chance of a false breakout increases. Take a look at the chart and see how the uptrend line is broken with unexpected low trading volume. If there is significantly increased volume on a breakout, the likelihood of a false breakout developing decreases (but is not eliminated). However, a throwback may still occur.
Editors' picks
Education
by BobRivera990
61
DXY will fall from Potential Reversal zone ?DXY will fall from Potential Reversal zone ? #DXY (Dollar Index): Important Decision Ahead Many dollar pairs are standing on key levels today. With a coming CPI report, the market participants are waiting for the trigger to either push the Greenback higher or to finally start shorting it. ⚠️DXY is testing a historical resistance at the moment. Bearish movement will initiate only fasle bull breakout of Potential Reversal zone. That will be a decent confirmation. target will be 92.5 firstly For bullish scenario, consider a daily candle close above the underlined daily resistance as the confirmation for a further bullish continuation.
TVC:DXYShort
by locphatfunds
Let the bitcoin ride!Hey there, crypto lovers! As we see on the BTC/USDT chart, There's been two false breakouts so far. (eg. price breaking out out of a trend and going back inside the trend.) While false breakouts are many traders' nightmares, yet no fear, my dear! because the good news is, that the more a trend's limit is tested and penetrated by the price, the weaker it gets. Yet it's early to call it an start of another bull run, in my opinion we are at the edge of the market deciding it's path. TLDR: If the price breaks the trendline again, this time it's more likely to be an start of an uptrend. For confirmation you can wait for a pull back to see how the price behaves after a breakout. Blessed be the bitcoin! ;)
Long
by Blockchainophil
USDCAD | Perspective for the new weekWe scooped over 500pips from our last publication as price moved aggressively in our direction ( see link below for reference purposes). Earlier in the week, we witnessed high volatility as price hit a high at CA$1.28000 ish only to fall drastically during the week to close below a major Support/Resistance level @ CA$1.26300 with signs expressing doubt of buying the Greenback over the Canadian Dollar. With all eyes focused on FOMC in the coming week; a Channel Breakdown expectation, a V-shaped recovery in oil prices (check USOil chart) coupled with a better than expected Canadian retail sales report is a positive sign for me to sell the Greenback for the Loonie in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Channel | Reversal set-up Observation: i. It is evident from our Daily chart that the USD has been on a rally since June 2021 and it appears to have found a peak at CA$1.28000. ii. The beginning of July 2021 expressed a steady growth in the Dollar as price action is contained between upward sloping parallel lines. iii. The appearance of an Ascending Channel is confirmed after drawing a lower trend line that connecting the swing lows, and an upper channel line that joining the swing highs. iv. The Breakout of the channel on the 19th of July 2021 appears to be a false one after considering the pattern of the Bearish move that followed the Breakout which also closed below the major Support/Resistance level @ CA$1.26300 on the daily chart - a sign that Buyers could not hold the momentum above this level for long. v. I look forward to a breakdown of my new Key level @ CA$1.25500 and channel to the downside in the coming as the likelihood for a rise in USOil becomes evident. vi. In this regard, I have identified a niche around CA$1.26300/1.25400 for selling opportunity with a high probability of a Channel Breakdown. vii. See the chart for levels that might welcome opportunities to add to our existing position. viii. For fellow cautious traders, below Key level remains a safe haven to sell... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 5 to 10days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
SPX: A new record high! Should we be nervous about it?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today! Once again, we have a new record high on the SPX, and this was already expected. I thought we were going to see another pullback, at least in the 1h chart, but it seems the bears can’t stand against the momentum. But should we be nervous about it? Well, let's see what technical analysis has for us. This movement corroborates with the 6th tenet of the Dow Theory: Trends persist, until a clear reversal occurs . So far, we had no reversal sign around, only pullback signs. We dropped sharply to the previous support at 4,289 (even went a little bit below this point), but this was a just a false breakout. Could the SPX drop again? Of course, but there’s nothing telling me that it’ll. The key point that could make it drop more is the 4,393 . If the SPX closes under it today, or does a bearish candlestick in the beginning of next week and closes below it as well, then we might see another pullback. The intensity of this possible pullback is unknown. We could retest the 21 ema and quickly recover, or hit the purple trendline (we would need to see a stronger bearish structure in the 1h chart for this). Truth be told, it has been some time since we didn’t touch the 21 ema in the weekly chart . If the index corrects to such a point, keep in mind that the long-term trend would still be bullish, as we still would have higher highs/lows. For now, we can just assume the trend will persist, and wait for a clear reversal sign, as Charles Dow, the father of Technical Analysis, wisely advised us to do, nearly one century ago. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. And support this idea if it helped you! Have a good weekend!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
BEL > False Breakout, New Trendline > Next move? (UPDATE)Hello Friends, Hope you all are having a thrill in your trading journey. I am presenting you my analysis of BEL. My previous analysis on BEL was not successful. Unfortunately, I think it was a false retest. According to my new technical analysis, BEL will again go up as it is following a strict trendline. I hope my analysis is pretty clear to you guys. Kindly do your own research and follow proper risk management. Feel free to share your views in the comment section. Like and Follow! Best Regards, Shaswat Naman TradeThrill, India🇮🇳 Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
Long
by tradethrill
Why is #MATIC not breaking free from #bitcoin?? considering the chart, the circled part was a false break-out which created SWING LOW from the Previous SWING HIGH, CORRECTION of 50% completed with a CONTINUATION which broke the 0.00% SUPPORT LEVEL of the Swing Low, a RETEST to the TRENDLINE now acting as a Resistance then a continuation which created he recent Bottom Valid Trend and an Asymmetric channel up. Price broke through the Major Resistance trendline an is currently creating a CONSOLIDATION at CROSS SECTION of TWO MAJOR TRENDLINE and a Minor Resistance Zone. A break above the Resistance Zone and the trendline acting as CURRENT RESISTANCE, gives us a valid LONG POSITION.
MLong
by MII1502